TY  - JOUR
A1  - Dolgener, Nicola
A1  - Freudenberger, L.
A1  - Schneeweiss, N.
A1  - Ibisch, P. L.
A1  - Tiedemann, Ralph
T1  - Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany
JF  - Regional environmental change
N2  - Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.
KW  - Brandenburg
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Distribution modelling
KW  - Endangered species
KW  - Fire-bellied toad
KW  - Maxent
Y1  - 2014
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0468-9
SN  - 1436-3798
SN  - 1436-378X
VL  - 14
IS  - 3
SP  - 1063
EP  - 1072
PB  - Springer
CY  - Heidelberg
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Dolgener, N.
A1  - Freudenberger, L.
A1  - Schluck, M.
A1  - Schneeweiss, N.
A1  - Ibisch, P. L.
A1  - Tiedemann, Ralph
T1  - Environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA) relates environmental parameters to abundance and genetic diversity in an endangered amphibian, the fire-bellied-toad (Bombina bombina)
JF  - Conservation genetics
N2  - Increasing attempts are made to understand the factors responsible for both the demographic and genetic depletion in amphibian populations. Landscape genetics aims at a spatially explicit correlation of genetic population parameters to landscape features. Using data from the endangered fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina in Brandenburg (Northeastern Germany), we performed an environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA), relating demographic (abundance) and genetic (diversity at 17 microsatellite loci and partial sequences of the mitochondrial control region in 434 individuals from 16 populations) parameters to ecological and anthropogenic variables such as temperature, precipitation, soil wetness, water runoff, vegetation density, and road/traffic impact. We found significant correlations between road disturbance and observed heterozygosity and between soil wetness and mitochondrial diversity. As the influences of the environmental variables can differ between different indicators for genetic diversity, population size and abundance data, our ENFA-based landscape genetics approach allows us to put various aspects of long- versus short term effective population size and genetic connectivity into an ecological and spatially explicit context, enabling potentially even forecast assessment under future environmental scenarios.
KW  - Distribution modelling
KW  - ENFA
KW  - Genetic diversity
KW  - Fire-bellied toad
KW  - Landscape genetics
KW  - Road disturbance
Y1  - 2014
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10592-013-0517-4
SN  - 1566-0621
SN  - 1572-9737
VL  - 15
IS  - 1
SP  - 11
EP  - 21
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  -