TY - JOUR A1 - Martin, Benjamin T. A1 - Jager, Tjalling A1 - Nisbet, Roger M. A1 - Preuss, Thomas G. A1 - Grimm, Volker T1 - Predicting population dynamics from the properties of individuals - a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget theory JF - The American naturalist : a bi-monthly journal devoted to the advancement and correlation of the biological sciences N2 - Individual-based models (IBMs) are increasingly used to link the dynamics of individuals to higher levels of biological organization. Still, many IBMs are data hungry, species specific, and time-consuming to develop and analyze. Many of these issues would be resolved by using general theories of individual dynamics as the basis for IBMs. While such theories have frequently been examined at the individual level, few cross-level tests exist that also try to predict population dynamics. Here we performed a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory by parameterizing an individual-based model using individual-level data of the water flea, Daphnia magna, and comparing the emerging population dynamics to independent data from population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities but failed to capture the decline phase. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small-and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detect gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology. KW - population dynamics KW - dynamic energy budget theory KW - bioenergetics KW - individual-based model Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1086/669904 SN - 0003-0147 VL - 181 IS - 4 SP - 506 EP - 519 PB - Univ. of Chicago Press CY - Chicago ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reeg, Jette A1 - Schad, Thorsten A1 - Preuss, Thomas G. A1 - Solga, Andreas A1 - Körner, Katrin A1 - Mihan, Christine A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Modelling direct and indirect effects of herbicides on non-target grassland communities JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog N2 - Natural grassland communities are threatened by a variety of factors, such as climate change and increasing land use by mankind. The use of plant protection products (synthetic or organic) is mandatory in agricultural food production. To avoid adverse effects on natural grasslands within agricultural areas, synthetic plant protection products are strictly regulated in Europe. However, effects of herbicides on non-target terrestrial plants are primarily studied on the level of individual plants neglecting interactions between species. In our study, we aim to extrapolate individual-level effects to the population and community level by adapting an existing spatio-temporal, individual-based plant community model (IBC-grass). We analyse the effects of herbicide exposure for three different grassland communities: 1) representative field boundary community, 2) Calthion grassland community, and 3) Arrhenatheretalia grassland community. Our simulations show that herbicide depositions can have effects on non-target plant communities resulting from direct and indirect effects on population level. The effect extent depends not only on the distance to the field, but also on the specific plant community, its disturbance regime (cutting frequency, trampling and grazing intensity) and resource level. Mechanistic modelling approaches such as IBC-grass present a promising novel approach in transferring and extrapolating standardized pot experiments to community level and thereby bridging the gap between ecotoxicological testing (e.g. in the greenhouse) and protection goals referring to real world conditions. KW - Plant community modelling KW - Herbicide exposure KW - Landscape KW - Non-target terrestrial plants KW - Field margins Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.01.010 SN - 0304-3800 SN - 1872-7026 VL - 348 SP - 44 EP - 55 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Martin, Benjamin A1 - Jager, Tjalling A1 - Nisbet, Roger M. A1 - Preuss, Thomas G. A1 - Grimm, Volker T1 - Limitations of extrapolating toxic effects on reproduction to the population level JF - Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America N2 - For the ecological risk assessment of toxic chemicals, standardized tests on individuals are often used as proxies for population-level effects. Here, we address the utility of one commonly used metric, reproductive output, as a proxy for population-level effects. Because reproduction integrates the outcome of many interacting processes (e.g., feeding, growth, allocation of energy to reproduction), the observed toxic effects in a reproduction test could be due to stress on one of many processes. Although this makes reproduction a robust endpoint for detecting stress, it may mask important population-level consequences if the different physiological processes stress affects are associated with different feedback mechanisms at the population level. We therefore evaluated how an observed reduction in reproduction found in a standard reproduction test translates to effects at the population level if it is caused by hypothetical toxicants affecting different physiological processes (physiological modes of action; PMoA). For this we used two consumer-resource models: the Yodzis-Innes (YI) model, which is mathematically tractable, but requires strong assumptions of energetic equivalence among individuals as they progress through ontogeny, and an individual-based implementation of dynamic energy budget theory (DEB-IBM), which relaxes these assumptions at the expense of tractability. We identified two important feedback mechanisms controlling the link between individual- and population-level stress in the YI model. These mechanisms turned out to also be important for interpreting some of the individual-based model results; for two PMoAs, they determined the population response to stress in both models. In contrast, others stress types involved more complex feedbacks, because they asymmetrically stressed the production efficiency of reproduction and somatic growth. The feedbacks associated with different PMoAs drastically altered the link between individual- and population-level effects. For example, hypothetical stressors with different PMoAs that had equal effects on reproduction had effects ranging from a negligible decline in biomass to population extinction. Thus, reproduction tests alone are of little use for extrapolating toxicity to the population level, but we showed that the ecological relevance of standard tests could easily be improved if growth is measured along with reproduction. KW - Daphnia KW - dynamic energy budget KW - ecological risk assessment KW - ecotoxicology KW - ontogenetic symmetry KW - physiological mode of action KW - PMoA KW - population dynamics KW - reproduction test KW - Yodzis-Innes Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1890/14-0656.1 SN - 1051-0761 SN - 1939-5582 VL - 24 IS - 8 SP - 1972 EP - 1983 PB - Wiley CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Martin, Benjamin T. A1 - Jager, Tjalling A1 - Nisbet, Roger M. A1 - Preuss, Thomas G. A1 - Hammers-Wirtz, Monika A1 - Grimm, Volker T1 - Extrapolating ecotoxicological effects from individuals to populations - a generic approach based on Dynamic Energy Budget theory and individual-based modeling JF - Ecotoxicology N2 - Individual-based models (IBMs) predict how dynamics at higher levels of biological organization emerge from individual-level processes. This makes them a particularly useful tool for ecotoxicology, where the effects of toxicants are measured at the individual level but protection goals are often aimed at the population level or higher. However, one drawback of IBMs is that they require significant effort and data to design for each species. A solution would be to develop IBMs for chemical risk assessment that are based on generic individual-level models and theory. Here we show how one generic theory, Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory, can be used to extrapolate the effect of toxicants measured at the individual level to effects on population dynamics. DEB is based on first principles in bioenergetics and uses a common model structure to model all species. Parameterization for a certain species is done at the individual level and allows to predict population-level effects of toxicants for a wide range of environmental conditions and toxicant concentrations. We present the general approach, which in principle can be used for all animal species, and give an example using Daphnia magna exposed to 3,4-dichloroaniline. We conclude that our generic approach holds great potential for standardized ecological risk assessment based on ecological models. Currently, available data from standard tests can directly be used for parameterization under certain circumstances, but with limited extra effort standard tests at the individual would deliver data that could considerably improve the applicability and precision of extrapolation to the population level. Specifically, the measurement of a toxicant's effect on growth in addition to reproduction, and presenting data over time as opposed to reporting a single EC50 or dose response curve at one time point. KW - Population KW - Dynamic Energy Budget KW - Individual-based model KW - Sub-lethal effects KW - Physiological mode of action KW - Effect model Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10646-013-1049-x SN - 0963-9292 VL - 22 IS - 3 SP - 574 EP - 583 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gabsi, Faten A1 - Hammers-Wirtz, Monika A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Schaeffer, Andreas A1 - Preuss, Thomas G. T1 - Coupling different mechanistic effect models for capturing individual- and population-level effects of chemicals: Lessons from a case where standard risk assessment failed JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog N2 - Current environmental risk assessment (ERA) of chemicals for aquatic invertebrates relies on standardized laboratory tests in which toxicity effects on individual survival, growth and reproduction are measured. Such tests determine the threshold concentration of a chemical below which no population-level effects are expected. How well this procedure captures effects on individuals and populations, however, remains an open question. Here we used mechanistic effect models, combining individual-level reproduction and survival models with an individual-based population model (IBM), to understand the individuals' responses and extrapolate them to the population level. We used a toxicant (Dispersogen A) for which adverse effects on laboratory populations were detected at the determined threshold concentration and thus challenged the conservatism of the current risk assessment method. Multiple toxicity effects on reproduction and survival were reported, in addition to effects on the F1 generation. We extrapolated commonly tested individual toxicity endpoints, reproduction and survival, to the population level using the IBM. Effects on reproduction were described via regression models. To select the most appropriate survival model, the IBM was run assuming either stochastic death (SD) or individual tolerance (IT). Simulations were run for different scenarios regarding the toxicant's effects: survival toxicity, reproductive toxicity, or survival and reproductive toxicity. As population-level endpoints, we used population size and structure and extinction risk. We found that survival represented as SD explained population dynamics better than IT. Integrating toxicity effects on both reproduction and survival yielded more accurate predictions of population effects than considering isolated effects. To fully capture population effects observed at high toxicant concentrations, toxicity effects transmitted to the F1 generation had to be integrated. Predicted extinction risk was highly sensitive to the assumptions about individual-level effects. Our results demonstrate that the endpoints used in current standard tests may not be sufficient for assessing the risk of adverse effects on populations. A combination of laboratory population experiments with mechanistic effect models is a powerful tool to better understand and predict effects on both individuals and populations. Mechanistic effect modelling thus holds great potential to improve the accuracy of ERA of chemicals in the future. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Individual-based modelling KW - TK/TD modelling KW - Daphnia magna KW - Risk assessment Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.06.018 SN - 0304-3800 SN - 1872-7026 VL - 280 SP - 18 EP - 29 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gergs, Andre A1 - Zenker, Armin A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Preuss, Thomas G. T1 - Chemical and natural stressors combined from cryptic effects to population extinction JF - Scientific reports N2 - In addition to natural stressors, populations are increasingly exposed to chemical pollutants released into the environment. We experimentally demonstrate the loss of resilience for Daphnia magna populations that are exposed to a combination of natural and chemical stressors even though effects on population size of a single stressor were cryptic, i.e. hard to detect statistically. Data on Daphnia population demography and along with model-based exploration of our predator-prey system revealed that direct trophic interactions changed the population size-structure and thereby increased population vulnerability to the toxicant which acts in a size selective manner. Moreover, population vulnerability to the toxicant increases with predator size and predation intensity whereas indirect trait-mediated interactions via predator kairomones may buffer chemical effects to a certain extent. Our study demonstrates that population size can be a poor endpoint for risk assessments of chemicals and that ignoring disturbance interactions can lead to severe underestimation of extinction risk. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/srep02036 SN - 2045-2322 VL - 3 IS - 2 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reeg, Jette A1 - Heine, Simon A1 - Mihan, Christine A1 - McGee, Sean A1 - Preuss, Thomas G. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - A graphical user interface for the plant community model IBC-grass JF - Plos One N2 - Plants located adjacent to agricultural fields are important for maintaining biodiversity in semi-natural landscapes. To avoid undesired impacts on these plants due to herbicide application on the arable fields, regulatory risk assessments are conducted prior to registration to ensure proposed uses of plant protection products do not present an unacceptable risk. The current risk assessment approach for these non-target terrestrial plants (NTTPs) examines impacts at the individual-level as a surrogate approach for protecting the plant community due to the inherent difficulties of directly assessing population or community level impacts. However, modelling approaches are suitable higher tier tools to upscale individual-level effects to community level. IBC-grass is a sophisticated plant community model, which has already been applied in several studies. However, as it is a console application software, it was not deemed sufficiently user-friendly for risk managers and assessors to be conveniently operated without prior expertise in ecological models. Here, we present a user-friendly and open source graphical user interface (GUI) for the application of IBC-grass in regulatory herbicide risk assessment. It facilitates the use of the plant community model for predicting long-term impacts of herbicide applications on NTTP communities. The GUI offers two options to integrate herbicide impacts: (1) dose responses based on current standard experiments (acc. to testing guidelines) and (2) based on specific effect intensities. Both options represent suitable higher tier options for future risk assessments of NTTPs as well as for research on the ecological relevance of effects. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0230012 SN - 1932-6203 VL - 15 IS - 3 PB - Plos 1 CY - San Francisco ER -