TY - GEN A1 - Köchy, Martin T1 - Effects of simulated daily precipitation patterns on annual plant populations depend on life stage and climatic region N2 - Background: To improve the understanding of consequences of climate change for annual plant communities, I used a detailed, grid-based model that simulates the effect of daily rainfall variability on individual plants in five climatic regions on a gradient from 100 to 800 mm mean annual precipitation (MAP). The model explicitly considers moisture storage in the soil. I manipulated daily rainfall variability by changing the daily mean rain (DMR, rain volume on rainy days averaged across years for each day of the year) by ± 20%. At the same time I adjusted intervals appropriately between rainy days for keeping the mean annual volume constant. In factorial combination with changing DMR I also changed MAP by ± 20%. Results: Increasing MAP generally increased water availability, establishment, and peak shoot biomass. Increasing DMR increased the time that water was continuously available to plants in the upper 15 to 30 cm of the soil (longest wet period, LWP). The effect of DMR diminished with increasing humidity of the climate. An interaction between water availability and density-dependent germination increased the establishment of seedlings in the arid region, but in the more humid regions the establishment of seedlings decreased with increasing DMR. As plants matured, competition among individuals and their productivity increased, but the size of these effects decreased with the humidity of the regions. Therefore, peak shoot biomass generally increased with increasing DMR but the effect size diminished from the semiarid to the mesic Mediterranean region. Increasing DMR reduced via LWP the annual variability of biomass in the semiarid and dry Mediterranean regions. Conclusion: More rainstorms (greater DMR) increased the recharge of soil water reservoirs in more arid sites with consequences for germination, establishment, productivity, and population persistence. The order of magnitudes of DMR and MAP overlapped partially so that their combined effect is important for projections of climate change effects on annual vegetation. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - paper 097 Y1 - 2008 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-33747 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Köchy, Martin A1 - Bråkenhielm, Sven T1 - Separation of effects of moderate N deposition from natural change in ground vegetation of forests and bogs N2 - The effect of moderate rates of nitrogen deposition on ground floor vegetation is poorly predicted by uncontrolled surveys or fertilization experiments using high rates of nitrogen (N) addition. We compared the temporal trends of ground floor vegetation in permanent plots with moderate (7–13 kg ha−1 year−1) and lower bulk N deposition (4–6 kg ha−1 year−1) in southern Sweden during 1982–1998. We examined whether trends differed between growth forms (vascular plants and bryophytes) and vegetation types (three types of coniferous forest, deciduous forest, and bog). Trends of site-standardized cover and richness varied among growth forms, vegetation types, and deposition regions. Cover in spruce forests decreased at the same rate with both moderate and low deposition. In pine forests cover decreased faster with moderate deposition and in bogs cover decreased faster with low deposition. Cover of bryophytes in spruce forests increased at the same rate with both moderate and low deposition. In pine forests cover decreased faster with moderate deposition and in bogs and deciduous forests there was a strong non-linear increase with moderate deposition. The trend of number of vascular plants was constant with moderate and decreased with low deposition. We found no trend in the number of bryophyte species. We propose that the decrease of cover and number with low deposition was related to normal ecosystem development (increased shading), suggesting that N deposition maintained or increased the competitiveness of some species in the moderate-deposition region. Deposition had no consistent negative effect on vegetation suggesting that it is less important than normal successional processes. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - paper 034 KW - Nitrogen deposition KW - Vascular plants KW - Bryophytes KW - Species richness KW - Succession KW - Understorey Y1 - 2008 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-16621 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Köchy, Martin A1 - Mathaj, Martin A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Malkinson, Dan T1 - Resilience of stocking capacity to changing climate in arid to Mediterranean landscapes N2 - Small livestock is an important resource for rural human populations in dry climates. How strongly will climate change affect the capacity of the rangeland? We used hierarchical modelling to scale quantitatively the growth of shrubs and annual plants, the main food of sheep and goats, to the landscape extent in the eastern Mediterranean region. Without grazing, productivity increased in a sigmoid way with mean annual precipitation. Grazing reduced productivity more strongly the drier the landscape. At a point just under the stocking capacity of the vegetation, productivity declined precipitously with more intense grazing due to a lack of seed production of annuals. We repeated simulations with precipitation patterns projected by two contrasting IPCC scenarios. Compared to results based on historic patterns, productivity and stocking capacity did not differ in most cases. Thus, grazing intensity remains the stronger impact on landscape productivity in this dry region even in the future. N2 - Kleinvieh ist eine wichtige Lebensgrundlage für die Landbevölkerung in trockenen Regionen. Wie stark wird sich der Klimawandel auf die Tragfähigkeit der Weideflächen auswirken? Wir benutzten hierarchische Modellierung, um das Wachstum von Sträuchern und einjährigen Kräutern, das wichtigste Futter für Ziegen und Schafe, quantitativ auf die Fläche von Landschaften in der östlichen Mittelmeerregion zu dimensionieren. Die Produktivität ohne Beweidung stieg sigmoidal mit dem mittleren Jahresniederschlag. Je trockener die Landschaft, desto stärker verminderte Beweidung die Produktion. An einem Punkt knapp unter der Tragfähigkeit der Vegetation, sank die Produktion stark mit zunehmender Beweidung, weil die Samenproduktion der Kräuter zu gering war. Wir wiederholten die Simulationen mit Niederschlagsverteilungsmustern gemäß zweier gegensätzlicher IPCC-Szenarien. Zukünftige Produktivität und Tragfähigkeit unterschieden sich in den meisten Fällen nicht von Ergebnissen auf Grund von historischer Niederschlagsverteilung. Allerdings war die zukünftige Produktivität in trockenen Habitaten der semiariden und trocken-mediterranen Regionen niedriger. Somit hat auch in Zukunft die Besatzdichte die größere Auswirkung auf die Produktivität dieser trockenen Landschaft als das Klima. "This abstract is provided by the authors, and is for convenience of the users only. The author certifies that the translation faithfully represents the official version in the language of the journal, which is the published Abstract of record and is the only Abstract to be used for reference and citation." T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - paper 066 KW - topography KW - spatially explicit model KW - climate change KW - Middle East KW - stocking capacity Y1 - 2008 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-18720 ER -