TY  - JOUR
A1  - Albrecht, Torsten
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
A1  - Levermann, Anders
T1  - Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)
BT  - part 2: parameter ensemble analysis
JF  - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
N2  - The Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) is applied to the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last two glacial cycles (approximate to 210 000 years) with a resolution of 16 km. An ensemble of 256 model runs is analyzed in which four relevant model parameters have been systematically varied using full-factorial parameter sampling. Parameters and plausible parameter ranges have been identified in a companion paper (Albrecht et al., 2020) and are associated with ice dynamics, climatic forcing, basal sliding and bed deformation and represent distinct classes of model uncertainties. The model is scored against both modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding-line locations, elevation-age data, ice thickness, surface velocities and uplift rates. An aggregated score is computed for each ensemble member that measures the overall model-data misfit, including measurement uncertainty in terms of a Gaussian error model (Briggs and Tarasov, 2013). The statistical method used to analyze the ensemble simulation results follows closely the simple averaging method described in Pollard et al. (2016). 
This analysis reveals clusters of best-fit parameter combinations, and hence a likely range of relevant model and boundary parameters, rather than individual best-fit parameters. The ensemble of reconstructed histories of Antarctic Ice Sheet volumes provides a score-weighted likely range of sea-level contributions since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) of 9.4 +/- 4.1m (or 6.5 +/- 2.0 x 10(6) km(3)), which is at the upper range of most previous studies. The last deglaciation occurs in all ensemble simulations after around 12 000 years before present and hence after the meltwater pulse 1A (MWP1a). Our ensemble analysis also provides an estimate of parametric uncertainty bounds for the present-day state that can be used for PISM projections of future sea-level contributions from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-633-2020
SN  - 1994-0416
SN  - 1994-0424
VL  - 14
IS  - 2
SP  - 633
EP  - 656
PB  - Copernicus Publ.
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Wunderling, Nico
A1  - Willeit, Matteo
A1  - Donges, Jonathan
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
T1  - Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
JF  - Nature Communications
N2  - Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C (interquartile range: 0.39-0.46 degrees C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. The disintegration of cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctica is associated with temperature and radiative feedbacks. In this work, the authors quantify these feedbacks and find an additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3
SN  - 2041-1723
VL  - 11
IS  - 1
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
CY  - Berlin
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Garbe, Julius
A1  - Albrecht, Torsten
A1  - Levermann, Anders
A1  - Donges, Jonathan
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
T1  - The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
JF  - Nature : the international weekly journal of science
N2  - More than half of Earth's freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions(1). Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth give rise to potential nonlinearities in its response to temperature changes. So far, we are lacking a comprehensive stability analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet for different amounts of global warming. Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible. Consistent with palaeodata(2)we find, using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model(3-5), that at global warming levels around 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, West Antarctica is committed to long-term partial collapse owing to the marine ice-sheet instability. Between 6 and 9 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, the loss of more than 70 per cent of the present-day ice volume is triggered, mainly caused by the surface elevation feedback. At more than 10 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, Antarctica is committed to become virtually ice-free. The ice sheet's temperature sensitivity is 1.3 metres of sea-level equivalent per degree of warming up to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, almost doubling to 2.4 metres per degree of warming between 2 and 6 degrees and increasing to about 10 metres per degree of warming between 6 and 9 degrees. Each of these thresholds gives rise to hysteresis behaviour: that is, the currently observed ice-sheet configuration is not regained even if temperatures are reversed to present-day levels. In particular, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does not regrow to its modern extent until temperatures are at least one degree Celsius lower than pre-industrial levels. Our results show that if the Paris Agreement is not met, Antarctica's long-term sea-level contribution will dramatically increase and exceed that of all other sources. <br /> Modelling shows that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits multiple temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss would become irreversible, and once melted, the ice sheet can regain its previous mass only if the climate cools well below pre-industrial temperatures.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5
SN  - 0028-0836
SN  - 1476-4687
VL  - 585
IS  - 7826
SP  - 538
EP  - 544
PB  - Macmillan Publishers Limited
CY  - Berlin
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Albrecht, Torsten
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
A1  - Levermann, Anders
T1  - Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)
BT  - Part 1: boundary conditions and climatic forcing
JF  - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
N2  - Simulations of the glacial-interglacial history of the Antarctic Ice Sheet provide insights into dynamic threshold behavior and estimates of the ice sheet's contributions to global sea-level changes for the past, present and future. However, boundary conditions are weakly constrained, in particular at the interface of the ice sheet and the bedrock. Also climatic forcing covering the last glacial cycles is uncertain, as it is based on sparse proxy data. <br /> We use the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to investigate the dynamic effects of different choices of input data, e.g., for modern basal heat flux or reconstructions of past changes of sea level and surface temperature. As computational resources are limited, glacial-cycle simulations are performed using a comparably coarse model grid of 16 km and various parameterizations, e.g., for basal sliding, iceberg calving, or for past variations in precipitation and ocean temperatures. In this study we evaluate the model's transient sensitivity to corresponding parameter choices and to different boundary conditions over the last two glacial cycles and provide estimates of involved uncertainties. We also discuss isolated and combined effects of climate and sea-level forcing. Hence, this study serves as a "cookbook" for the growing community of PISM users and paleo-ice sheet modelers in general. <br /> For each of the different model uncertainties with regard to climatic forcing, ice and Earth dynamics, and basal processes, we select one representative model parameter that captures relevant uncertainties and motivates corresponding parameter ranges that bound the observed ice volume at present. The four selected parameters are systematically varied in a parameter ensemble analysis, which is described in a companion paper.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020
SN  - 1994-0416
SN  - 1994-0424
VL  - 14
IS  - 2
SP  - 599
EP  - 632
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Reese, Ronja
A1  - Levermann, Anders
A1  - Albrecht, Torsten
A1  - Seroussi, Helene
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
T1  - The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model
JF  - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
N2  - Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent acceleration of the inland ice streams are the major reasons for currently observed mass loss from Antarctica and are expected to become more important in the future. Here we show that for projections of future mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, it is essential (1) to better constrain the sensitivity of sub-shelf melt rates to ocean warming and (2) to include the historic trajectory of the ice sheet. In particular, we find that while the ice sheet response in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model is comparable to the median response of models in three Antarctic Ice Sheet Intercomparison projects - initMIP, LARMIP-2 and ISMIP6 - conducted with a range of ice sheet models, the projected 21st century sea level contribution differs significantly depending on these two factors. For the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, this leads to projected ice loss ranging from 1:4 to 4:0 cm of sea level equivalent in simulations in which ISMIP6 ocean forcing drives the PICO ocean box model where parameter tuning leads to a comparably low sub-shelf melt sensitivity and in which no surface forcing is applied. This is opposed to a likely range of 9:1 to 35:8 cm using the exact same initial setup, but emulated from the LARMIP-2 experiments with a higher melt sensitivity, even though both projects use forcing from climate models and melt rates are calibrated with previous oceanographic studies. Furthermore, using two initial states, one with a previous historic simulation from 1850 to 2014 and one starting from a steady state, we show that while differences between the ice sheet configurations in 2015 seem marginal at first sight, the historic simulation increases the susceptibility of the ice sheet to ocean warming, thereby increasing mass loss from 2015 to 2100 by 5% to 50 %. Hindcasting past ice sheet changes with numerical models would thus provide valuable tools to better constrain projections. Our results emphasize that the uncertainty that arises from the forcing is of the same order of magnitude as the ice dynamic response for future sea level projections.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020
SN  - 1994-0416
SN  - 1994-0424
VL  - 14
IS  - 9
SP  - 3097
EP  - 3110
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Seroussi, Helene
A1  - Nowicki, Sophie
A1  - Payne, Antony J.
A1  - Goelzer, Heiko
A1  - Lipscomb, William H.
A1  - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
A1  - Agosta, Cecile
A1  - Albrecht, Torsten
A1  - Asay-Davis, Xylar
A1  - Barthel, Alice
A1  - Calov, Reinhard
A1  - Cullather, Richard
A1  - Dumas, Christophe
A1  - Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.
A1  - Gladstone, Rupert
A1  - Golledge, Nicholas R.
A1  - Gregory, Jonathan M.
A1  - Greve, Ralf
A1  - Hattermann, Tore
A1  - Hoffman, Matthew J.
A1  - Humbert, Angelika
A1  - Huybrechts, Philippe
A1  - Jourdain, Nicolas C.
A1  - Kleiner, Thomas
A1  - Larour, Eric
A1  - Leguy, Gunter R.
A1  - Lowry, Daniel P.
A1  - Little, Chistopher M.
A1  - Morlighem, Mathieu
A1  - Pattyn, Frank
A1  - Pelle, Tyler
A1  - Price, Stephen F.
A1  - Quiquet, Aurelien
A1  - Reese, Ronja
A1  - Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne
A1  - Shepherd, Andrew
A1  - Simon, Erika
A1  - Smith, Robin S.
A1  - Straneo, Fiammetta
A1  - Sun, Sainan
A1  - Trusel, Luke D.
A1  - Van Breedam, Jonas
A1  - van de Wal, Roderik S. W.
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
A1  - Zhao, Chen
A1  - Zhang, Tong
A1  - Zwinger, Thomas
T1  - ISMIP6 Antarctica
BT  - a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
JF  - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
N2  - Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between 7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between 6 :1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
SN  - 1994-0416
SN  - 1994-0424
VL  - 14
IS  - 9
SP  - 3033
EP  - 3070
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Zeitz, Maria
A1  - Levermann, Anders
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
T1  - Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry
JF  - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
N2  - Acceleration of the flow of ice drives mass losses in both the Antarctic and the Greenland Ice Sheet. The projections of possible future sea-level rise rely on numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physics of ice flow, melt, and calving. While major advancements have been made by the ice-sheet modeling community in addressing several of the related uncertainties, the flow law, which is at the center of most process-based ice-sheet models, is not in the focus of the current scientific debate. However, recent studies show that the flow law parameters are highly uncertain and might be different from the widely accepted standard values. Here, we use an idealized flow-line setup to investigate how these uncertainties in the flow law translate into uncertainties in flow-driven mass loss. In order to disentangle the effect of future warming on the ice flow from other effects, we perform a suite of experiments with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), deliberately excluding changes in the surface mass balance. We find that changes in the flow parameters within the observed range can lead up to a doubling of the flow-driven mass loss within the first centuries of warming, compared to standard parameters. The spread of ice loss due to the uncertainty in flow parameters is on the same order of magnitude as the increase in mass loss due to surface warming. While this study focuses on an idealized flow-line geometry, it is likely that this uncertainty carries over to realistic three-dimensional simulations of Greenland and Antarctica.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020
SN  - 1994-0416
SN  - 1994-0424
VL  - 14
IS  - 10
SP  - 3537
EP  - 3550
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ciemer, Catrin
A1  - Rehm, Lars
A1  - Kurths, Jürgen
A1  - Donner, Reik Volker
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
A1  - Boers, Niklas
T1  - An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures
JF  - Environmental Research Letters
N2  - Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.
KW  - complex networks
KW  - droughts
KW  - prediction
KW  - Amazon rainforest
Y1  - 2019
VL  - 15
IS  - 9
PB  - IOP - Institute of Physics Publishing
CY  - Bristol
ER  - 
TY  - GEN
A1  - Ciemer, Catrin
A1  - Rehm, Lars
A1  - Kurths, Jürgen
A1  - Donner, Reik Volker
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
A1  - Boers, Niklas
T1  - An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures
T2  - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
N2  - Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.
T3  - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1207 
KW  - complex networks
KW  - droughts
KW  - prediction
KW  - Amazon rainforest
Y1  - 2019
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525863
SN  - 1866-8372
IS  - 9
ER  -