TY - JOUR A1 - Stolle, Amelie A1 - Langer, Maria A1 - Blöthe, Jan Henrik A1 - Korup, Oliver T1 - On predicting debris flows in arid mountain belts JF - Global and planetary change N2 - The use of topographic metrics for estimating the susceptibility to, and reconstructing the characteristics of, debris flows has a long research tradition, although largely devoted to humid mountainous terrain. The exceptional 2010 monsoonal rainstorms in the high-altitude mountain desert of Ladakh and Zanskar, NW India, were a painful reminder of how susceptible arid regions are to rainfall-triggered flash floods, landslides, and debris flows. The rainstorms of August 4-6 triggered numerous debris flows, killing 182 people, devastating 607 houses, and more than 10 bridges around Ladakh's capital of Leh. The lessons from this disaster motivated us to revisit methods of predicting (a) flow parameters such as peak discharge and maximum velocity from field and remote sensing data, and (b) the susceptibility to debris flows from catchment morphometry. We focus on quantifying uncertainties tied to these approaches. Comparison of high-resolution satellite images pre- and post-dating the 2010 rainstorm reveals the extent of damage and catastrophic channel widening. Computations based on these geomorphic markers indicate maximum flow velocities of 1.6-6.7 m s(-1) with runout of up to similar to 10 km on several alluvial fans that sustain most of the region's settlements. We estimate median peak discharges of 310-610 m(3) s(-1), which are largely consistent with previous estimates. Monte Carlo-based error propagation for a single given flow-reconstruction method returns a variance in discharge similar to one derived from juxtaposing several different flow reconstruction methods. We further compare discriminant analysis, classification tree modelling, and Bayesian logistic regression to predict debris-flow susceptibility from morphometric variables of 171 catchments in the Ladakh Range. These methods distinguish between fluvial and debris flow-prone catchments at similar success rates, but Bayesian logistic regression allows quantifying uncertainties and relationships between potential predictors. We conclude that, in order to be robust and reliable, morphometric reconstruction of debris-flow properties and susceptibility requires careful assessment and reporting of errors and uncertainties. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - debris flow KW - peak discharge KW - channel geometry KW - geomorphometry KW - Bayesian logistic regression KW - Transhimalaya Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.12.005 SN - 0921-8181 SN - 1872-6364 VL - 126 SP - 1 EP - 13 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - GEN A1 - Tillner, Elena A1 - Langer, Maria A1 - Kempka, Thomas A1 - Kühn, Michael T1 - Fault damage zone volume and initial salinity distribution determine intensity of shallow aquifer salinisation in subsurface storage T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Injection of fluids into deep saline aquifers causes a pore pressure increase in the storage formation, and thus displacement of resident brine. Via hydraulically conductive faults, brine may migrate upwards into shallower aquifers and lead to unwanted salinisation of potable groundwater resources. In the present study, we investigated different scenarios for a potential storage site in the Northeast German Basin using a three-dimensional (3-D) regional-scale model that includes four major fault zones. The focus was on assessing the impact of fault length and the effect of a secondary reservoir above the storage formation, as well as model boundary conditions and initial salinity distribution on the potential salinisation of shallow groundwater resources. We employed numerical simulations of brine injection as a representative fluid. Our simulation results demonstrate that the lateral model boundary settings and the effective fault damage zone volume have the greatest influence on pressure build-up and development within the reservoir, and thus intensity and duration of fluid flow through the faults. Higher vertical pressure gradients for short fault segments or a small effective fault damage zone volume result in the highest salinisation potential due to a larger vertical fault height affected by fluid displacement. Consequently, it has a strong impact on the degree of shallow aquifer salinisation, whether a gradient in salinity exists or the saltwater-freshwater interface lies below the fluid displacement depth in the faults. A small effective fault damage zone volume or low fault permeability further extend the duration of fluid flow, which can persist for several tens to hundreds of years, if the reservoir is laterally confined. Laterally open reservoir boundaries, large effective fault damage zone volumes and intermediate reservoirs significantly reduce vertical brine migration and the potential of freshwater salinisation because the origin depth of displaced brine is located only a few decametres below the shallow aquifer in maximum. The present study demonstrates that the existence of hydraulically conductive faults is not necessarily an exclusion criterion for potential injection sites, because salinisation of shallower aquifers strongly depends on initial salinity distribution, location of hydraulically conductive faults and their effective damage zone volumes as well as geological boundary conditions. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 548 KW - geological CO2 storage KW - brine migration KW - fluid-flow KW - pressure management KW - dynamic flow KW - permeability KW - sequestration KW - simulations KW - injection KW - leakage Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-411854 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 548 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tillner, Elena A1 - Langer, Maria A1 - Kempka, Thomas A1 - Kühn, Michael T1 - Fault damage zone volume and initial salinity distribution determine intensity of shallow aquifer salinisation in subsurface storage JF - Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS N2 - Injection of fluids into deep saline aquifers causes a pore pressure increase in the storage formation, and thus displacement of resident brine. Via hydraulically conductive faults, brine may migrate upwards into shallower aquifers and lead to unwanted salinisation of potable groundwater resources. In the present study, we investigated different scenarios for a potential storage site in the Northeast German Basin using a three-dimensional (3-D) regional-scale model that includes four major fault zones. The focus was on assessing the impact of fault length and the effect of a secondary reservoir above the storage formation, as well as model boundary conditions and initial salinity distribution on the potential salinisation of shallow groundwater resources. We employed numerical simulations of brine injection as a representative fluid. Our simulation results demonstrate that the lateral model boundary settings and the effective fault damage zone volume have the greatest influence on pressure build-up and development within the reservoir, and thus intensity and duration of fluid flow through the faults. Higher vertical pressure gradients for short fault segments or a small effective fault damage zone volume result in the highest salinisation potential due to a larger vertical fault height affected by fluid displacement. Consequently, it has a strong impact on the degree of shallow aquifer salinisation, whether a gradient in salinity exists or the saltwater-freshwater interface lies below the fluid displacement depth in the faults. A small effective fault damage zone volume or low fault permeability further extend the duration of fluid flow, which can persist for several tens to hundreds of years, if the reservoir is laterally confined. Laterally open reservoir boundaries, large effective fault damage zone volumes and intermediate reservoirs significantly reduce vertical brine migration and the potential of freshwater salinisation because the origin depth of displaced brine is located only a few decametres below the shallow aquifer in maximum. The present study demonstrates that the existence of hydraulically conductive faults is not necessarily an exclusion criterion for potential injection sites, because salinisation of shallower aquifers strongly depends on initial salinity distribution, location of hydraulically conductive faults and their effective damage zone volumes as well as geological boundary conditions. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1049-2016 SN - 1027-5606 SN - 1607-7938 VL - 20 SP - 1049 EP - 1067 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER -