TY - JOUR A1 - Radchuk, Viktoriia A1 - Reed, Thomas A1 - Teplitsky, Celine A1 - van de Pol, Martijn A1 - Charmantier, Anne A1 - Hassall, Christopher A1 - Adamik, Peter A1 - Adriaensen, Frank A1 - Ahola, Markus P. A1 - Arcese, Peter A1 - Miguel Aviles, Jesus A1 - Balbontin, Javier A1 - Berg, Karl S. A1 - Borras, Antoni A1 - Burthe, Sarah A1 - Clobert, Jean A1 - Dehnhard, Nina A1 - de Lope, Florentino A1 - Dhondt, Andre A. A1 - Dingemanse, Niels J. A1 - Doi, Hideyuki A1 - Eeva, Tapio A1 - Fickel, Jörns A1 - Filella, Iolanda A1 - Fossoy, Frode A1 - Goodenough, Anne E. A1 - Hall, Stephen J. G. A1 - Hansson, Bengt A1 - Harris, Michael A1 - Hasselquist, Dennis A1 - Hickler, Thomas A1 - Jasmin Radha, Jasmin A1 - Kharouba, Heather A1 - Gabriel Martinez, Juan A1 - Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste A1 - Mills, James A. A1 - Molina-Morales, Mercedes A1 - Moksnes, Arne A1 - Ozgul, Arpat A1 - Parejo, Deseada A1 - Pilard, Philippe A1 - Poisbleau, Maud A1 - Rousset, Francois A1 - Rödel, Mark-Oliver A1 - Scott, David A1 - Carlos Senar, Juan A1 - Stefanescu, Constanti A1 - Stokke, Bard G. A1 - Kusano, Tamotsu A1 - Tarka, Maja A1 - Tarwater, Corey E. A1 - Thonicke, Kirsten A1 - Thorley, Jack A1 - Wilting, Andreas A1 - Tryjanowski, Piotr A1 - Merila, Juha A1 - Sheldon, Ben C. A1 - Moller, Anders Pape A1 - Matthysen, Erik A1 - Janzen, Fredric A1 - Dobson, F. Stephen A1 - Visser, Marcel E. A1 - Beissinger, Steven R. A1 - Courtiol, Alexandre A1 - Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie T1 - Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient JF - Nature Communications N2 - Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 10 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Radchuk, Viktoriia A1 - Johst, Karin A1 - Groeneveld, Jürgen A1 - Turlure, Camille A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Schtickzelle, Nicolas T1 - Appropriate resolution in time and model structure for population viability analysis: Insights from a butterfly metapopulation JF - : an international journal N2 - The importance of a careful choice of the appropriate scale for studying ecological phenomena has been stressed repeatedly. However, issues of spatial scale in metapopulation dynamics received much more attention compared to temporal scale. Moreover, multiple calls were made to carefully choose the appropriate model structure for Population Viability Analysis (PVA). We assessed the effect of using coarser resolution in time and model structure on population dynamics. For this purpose, we compared outcomes of two PVA models differing in their time step: daily individual-based model (dIBM) and yearly stage-based model (ySBM), loaded with empirical data on a well-known metapopulation of the butterfly Boloria eunomia. Both models included the same environmental drivers of population dynamics that were previously identified as being the most important for this species. Under temperature change scenarios, both models yielded the same qualitative scenario ranking, but they quite substantially differed quantitatively with dIBM being more pessimistic in absolute viability measures. We showed that these differences stemmed from inter-individual heterogeneity in dIBM allowing for phenological shifts of individual appearance. We conclude that a finer temporal resolution and an individual-based model structure allow capturing the essential mechanisms necessary to go beyond mere PVA scenario ranking. We encourage researchers to carefully chose the temporal resolution and structure of their model aiming at (1) depicting the processes important for (meta)population dynamics of the species and (2) implementing the environmental change scenarios expected for their study system in the future, using the temporal resolution at which such changes are predicted to operate. KW - Temporal grain KW - Model complexity KW - Model comparison KW - Population dynamics KW - Individual-based model KW - Stage-based model Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2013.12.004 SN - 0006-3207 SN - 1873-2917 VL - 169 SP - 345 EP - 354 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Radchuk, Viktoriia A1 - Johst, Karin A1 - Gröneveld, Juergen A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Schtickzelle, Nicolas T1 - Behind the scenes of population viability modeling predicting butterfly metapopulation dynamics under climate change JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog N2 - Studies explaining the choice of model structure for population viability analysis (PVA) are rare and no such study exists for butterfly species, a focal group for conservation. Here, we describe in detail the development of a model to predict population viability of a glacial relict butterfly species, Boloria eunomia, under climate change. We compared four alternative formulations of an individual-based model, differing in the environmental factors acting on the survival of immature life stages: temperature (only temperature impact), weather (temperature, precipitation, and sunshine), temperature and parasitism, and weather and parasitism. Following pattern-oriented modeling, four observed patterns were used to contrast these models: one qualitative (response of population size to habitat parameters) and three quantitative ones describing population dynamics during eight years (mean and variability of population size, and magnitude of the temporal autocorrelation in yearly population growth rates). The four model formulations were not equally able to depict population dynamics under current environmental conditions; the model including only temperature was selected as the most parsimonious model sufficiently well reproducing the empirical patterns. We used all four model formulations to test a range of climate change scenarios that were characterized by changes in both mean and variability of the weather variables. All models predicted adverse effects of climate change and resulted in the same ranking of mean climate change scenarios. However, models differed in their absolute values of population viability measures, underlining the need to explicitly choose the most appropriate model formulation and avoid arbitrary usage of environmental drivers in a model. We conclude that further applications of pattern-oriented modeling to butterfly and other species are likely to help in identifying the key factors impacting the viability of certain taxa, which, ultimately, will aid and speed up informed management decisions for endangered species under climate change. KW - Individual-based model KW - Population viability analysis KW - Glacial relict species KW - Life cycle KW - Boloria eunomia KW - Pattern-oriented modeling KW - Model structure Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.03.014 SN - 0304-3800 VL - 259 IS - 2 SP - 62 EP - 73 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Radchuk, Viktoriia A1 - Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie A1 - Fickel, Jörns A1 - Wilting, Andreas T1 - Distributions of mammals in Southeast Asia: The role of the legacy of climate and species body mass JF - Journal of biogeography N2 - Aim Current species distributions are shaped by present and past biotic and abiotic factors. Here, we assessed whether abiotic factors (habitat availability) in combination with past connectivity and a biotic factor (body mass) can explain the unique distribution pattern of Southeast Asian mammals, which are separated by the enigmatic biogeographic transition zone, the Isthmus of Kra (IoK), for which no strong geophysical barrier exists. Location Southeast Asia. Taxon Mammals. Methods We projected habitat suitability for 125 mammal species using climate data for the present period and for two historic periods: mid-Holocene (6 ka) and last glacial maximum (LGM 21 ka). Next, we employed a phylogenetic linear model to assess how present species distributions were affected by the suitability of areas in these different periods, habitat connectivity during LGM and species body mass. Results Our results show that cooler climate during LGM provided suitable habitat south of IoK for species presently distributed north of IoK (in mainland Indochina). However, the potentially suitable habitat for these Indochinese species did not stretch very far southwards onto the exposed Sunda Shelf. Instead, we found that the emerged landmasses connecting Borneo and Sumatra provided suitable habitat for forest dependent Sundaic species. We show that for species whose current distribution ranges are mainly located in Indochina, the area of the distribution range that is located south of IoK is explained by the suitability of habitat in the past and present in combination with the species body mass. Main conclusions We demonstrate that a strong geophysical barrier may not be necessary for maintaining a biogeographic transition zone for mammals, but that instead a combination of abiotic and biotic factors may suffice. KW - habitat suitability KW - Isthmus of Kra KW - least-cost path KW - PanTHERIA KW - phylogenetic regression KW - species distribution model Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13675 SN - 0305-0270 SN - 1365-2699 VL - 46 IS - 10 SP - 2350 EP - 2362 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wilting, A. A1 - Patel, R. A1 - Pfestorf, Hans A1 - Kern, C. A1 - Sultan, K. A1 - Ario, A. A1 - Penaloza, F. A1 - Kramer-Schadt, S. A1 - Radchuk, Viktoriia A1 - Foerster, D. W. A1 - Fickel, Jörns T1 - Evolutionary history and conservation significance of the Javan leopard Panthera pardus melas JF - Journal of zoology : proceedings of the Zoological Society of London N2 - The leopard Panthera pardus is widely distributed across Africa and Asia; however, there is a gap in its natural distribution in Southeast Asia, where it occurs on the mainland and on Java but not on the interjacent island of Sumatra. Several scenarios have been proposed to explain this distribution gap. Here, we complemented an existing dataset of 68 leopard mtDNA sequences from Africa and Asia with mtDNA sequences (NADH5+ ctrl, 724bp) from 19 Javan leopards, and hindcasted leopard distribution to the Pleistocene to gain further insights into the evolutionary history of the Javan leopard. Our data confirmed that Javan leopards are evolutionarily distinct from other Asian leopards, and that they have been present on Java since the Middle Pleistocene. Species distribution projections suggest that Java was likely colonized via a Malaya-Java land bridge that by-passed Sumatra, as suitable conditions for leopards during Pleistocene glacial periods were restricted to northern and western Sumatra. As fossil evidence supports the presence of leopards on Sumatra at the beginning of the Late Pleistocene, our projections are consistent with a scenario involving the extinction of leopards on Sumatra as a consequence of the Toba super volcanic eruption (similar to 74kya). The impact of this eruption was minor on Java, suggesting that leopards managed to survive here. Currently, only a few hundred leopards still live in the wild and only about 50 are managed in captivity. Therefore, this unique and distinctive subspecies requires urgent, concerted conservation efforts, integrating insitu and ex situ conservation management activities in a One Plan Approach to species conservation management. KW - biogeography KW - evolutionary history KW - Felidae KW - Southeast Asia KW - Toba eruption KW - One Plan Approach KW - Pleistocene KW - Javan leopard Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/jzo.12348 SN - 0952-8369 SN - 1469-7998 VL - 299 SP - 239 EP - 250 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Egli, Lukas A1 - Weise, Hanna A1 - Radchuk, Viktoriia A1 - Seppelt, Ralf A1 - Grimm, Volker T1 - Exploring resilience with agent-based models: State of the art, knowledge gaps and recommendations for coping with multidimensionality JF - Ecological complexity N2 - Anthropogenic pressures increasingly alter natural systems. Therefore, understanding the resilience of agent-based complex systems such as ecosystems, i.e. their ability to absorb these pressures and sustain their functioning and services, is a major challenge. However, the mechanisms underlying resilience are still poorly understood. A main reason for this is the multidimensionality of both resilience, embracing the three fundamental stability properties recovery, resistance and persistence, and of the specific situations for which stability properties can be assessed. Agent-based models (ABM) complement empirical research which is, for logistic reasons, limited in coping with these multiple dimensions. Besides their ability to integrate multidimensionality through extensive manipulation in a fully controlled system, ABMs can capture the emergence of system resilience from individual interactions and feedbacks across different levels of organization. To assess the extent to which this potential of ABMs has already been exploited, we reviewed the state of the art in exploring resilience and its multidimensionality in ecological and socio-ecological systems with ABMs. We found that the potential of ABMs is not utilized in most models, as they typically focus on a single dimension of resilience by using variability as a proxy for persistence, and are limited to one reference state, disturbance type and scale. Moreover, only few studies explicitly test the ability of different mechanisms to support resilience. To overcome these limitations, we recommend to simultaneously assess multiple stability properties for different situations and under consideration of the mechanisms that are hypothesised to render a system resilient. This will help us to better exploit the potential of ABMs to understand and quantify resilience mechanisms, and hence support solving real-world problems related to the resilience of agent-based complex systems. KW - Agent-based models KW - Model development KW - Multidimensionality KW - Review KW - Social-ecological systems KW - Stability properties Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2018.06.008 SN - 1476-945X SN - 1476-9840 VL - 40 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - GEN A1 - Horn, Juliane A1 - Becher, Matthias A. A1 - Johst, Karin A1 - Kennedy, Peter J. A1 - Osborne, Juliet L. A1 - Radchuk, Viktoriia A1 - Grimm, Volker T1 - Honey bee colony performance affected by crop diversity and farmland structure BT - a modeling framework T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Forage availability has been suggested as one driver of the observed decline in honey bees. However, little is known about the effects of its spatiotemporal variation on colony success. We present a modeling framework for assessing honey bee colony viability in cropping systems. Based on two real farmland structures, we developed a landscape generator to design cropping systems varying in crop species identity, diversity, and relative abundance. The landscape scenarios generated were evaluated using the existing honey bee colony model BEEHAVE, which links foraging to in-hive dynamics. We thereby explored how different cropping systems determine spatiotemporal forage availability and, in turn, honey bee colony viability (e.g., time to extinction, TTE) and resilience (indicated by, e.g., brood mortality). To assess overall colony viability, we developed metrics,P(H)andP(P,)which quantified how much nectar and pollen provided by a cropping system per year was converted into a colony's adult worker population. Both crop species identity and diversity determined the temporal continuity in nectar and pollen supply and thus colony viability. Overall farmland structure and relative crop abundance were less important, but details mattered. For monocultures and for four-crop species systems composed of cereals, oilseed rape, maize, and sunflower,P(H)andP(P)were below the viability threshold. Such cropping systems showed frequent, badly timed, and prolonged forage gaps leading to detrimental cascading effects on life stages and in-hive work force, which critically reduced colony resilience. Four-crop systems composed of rye-grass-dandelion pasture, trefoil-grass pasture, sunflower, and phacelia ensured continuous nectar and pollen supply resulting in TTE > 5 yr, andP(H)(269.5 kg) andP(P)(108 kg) being above viability thresholds for 5 yr. Overall, trefoil-grass pasture, oilseed rape, buckwheat, and phacelia improved the temporal continuity in forage supply and colony's viability. Our results are hypothetical as they are obtained from simplified landscape settings, but they nevertheless match empirical observations, in particular the viability threshold. Our framework can be used to assess the effects of cropping systems on honey bee viability and to develop land-use strategies that help maintain pollination services by avoiding prolonged and badly timed forage gaps. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1351 KW - apis mellifera KW - BEEHAVE KW - colony viability KW - crop diversity KW - cropping system KW - decline KW - forage availability KW - forage gaps KW - honey bees KW - landscape generator KW - modeling Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-556943 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Horn, Juliane A1 - Becher, Matthias A. A1 - Johst, Karin A1 - Kennedy, Peter J. A1 - Osborne, Juliet L. A1 - Radchuk, Viktoriia A1 - Grimm, Volker T1 - Honey bee colony performance affected by crop diversity and farmland structure BT - a modeling framework JF - Ecological applications N2 - Forage availability has been suggested as one driver of the observed decline in honey bees. However, little is known about the effects of its spatiotemporal variation on colony success. We present a modeling framework for assessing honey bee colony viability in cropping systems. Based on two real farmland structures, we developed a landscape generator to design cropping systems varying in crop species identity, diversity, and relative abundance. The landscape scenarios generated were evaluated using the existing honey bee colony model BEEHAVE, which links foraging to in-hive dynamics. We thereby explored how different cropping systems determine spatiotemporal forage availability and, in turn, honey bee colony viability (e.g., time to extinction, TTE) and resilience (indicated by, e.g., brood mortality). To assess overall colony viability, we developed metrics,P(H)andP(P,)which quantified how much nectar and pollen provided by a cropping system per year was converted into a colony's adult worker population. Both crop species identity and diversity determined the temporal continuity in nectar and pollen supply and thus colony viability. Overall farmland structure and relative crop abundance were less important, but details mattered. For monocultures and for four-crop species systems composed of cereals, oilseed rape, maize, and sunflower,P(H)andP(P)were below the viability threshold. Such cropping systems showed frequent, badly timed, and prolonged forage gaps leading to detrimental cascading effects on life stages and in-hive work force, which critically reduced colony resilience. Four-crop systems composed of rye-grass-dandelion pasture, trefoil-grass pasture, sunflower, and phacelia ensured continuous nectar and pollen supply resulting in TTE > 5 yr, andP(H)(269.5 kg) andP(P)(108 kg) being above viability thresholds for 5 yr. Overall, trefoil-grass pasture, oilseed rape, buckwheat, and phacelia improved the temporal continuity in forage supply and colony's viability. Our results are hypothetical as they are obtained from simplified landscape settings, but they nevertheless match empirical observations, in particular the viability threshold. Our framework can be used to assess the effects of cropping systems on honey bee viability and to develop land-use strategies that help maintain pollination services by avoiding prolonged and badly timed forage gaps. KW - apis mellifera KW - BEEHAVE KW - colony viability KW - crop diversity KW - cropping system KW - decline KW - forage availability KW - forage gaps KW - honey bees KW - landscape generator KW - modeling Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2216 SN - 1939-5582 SN - 1051-0761 VL - 31 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 22 PB - Wiley Periodicals LLC CY - Washington DC ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kürschner, Tobias A1 - Scherer, Cédric A1 - Radchuk, Viktoriia A1 - Blaum, Niels A1 - Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie T1 - Movement can mediate temporal mismatches between resource availability and biological events in host-pathogen interactions JF - Ecology and evolution N2 - Global change is shifting the timing of biological events, leading to temporal mismatches between biological events and resource availability. These temporal mismatches can threaten species' populations. Importantly, temporal mismatches not only exert strong pressures on the population dynamics of the focal species, but can also lead to substantial changes in pairwise species interactions such as host-pathogen systems. We adapted an established individual-based model of host-pathogen dynamics. The model describes a viral agent in a social host, while accounting for the host's explicit movement decisions. We aimed to investigate how temporal mismatches between seasonal resource availability and host life-history events affect host-pathogen coexistence, that is, disease persistence. Seasonal resource fluctuations only increased coexistence probability when in synchrony with the hosts' biological events. However, a temporal mismatch reduced host-pathogen coexistence, but only marginally. In tandem with an increasing temporal mismatch, our model showed a shift in the spatial distribution of infected hosts. It shifted from an even distribution under synchronous conditions toward the formation of disease hotspots, when host life history and resource availability mismatched completely. The spatial restriction of infected hosts to small hotspots in the landscape initially suggested a lower coexistence probability due to the critical loss of susceptible host individuals within those hotspots. However, the surrounding landscape facilitated demographic rescue through habitat-dependent movement. Our work demonstrates that the negative effects of temporal mismatches between host resource availability and host life history on host-pathogen coexistence can be reduced through the formation of temporary disease hotspots and host movement decisions, with implications for disease management under disturbances and global change. KW - classical swine fever KW - dynamic landscapes KW - global change KW - host– pathogen dynamics KW - individual‐ based model KW - movement ecology Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7478 SN - 2045-7758 VL - 11 IS - 10 SP - 5728 EP - 5741 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Scherer, Cedric A1 - Radchuk, Viktoriia A1 - Staubach, Christoph A1 - Mueller, Sophie A1 - Blaum, Niels A1 - Thulke, Hans-Hermann A1 - Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie T1 - Seasonal host life-history processes fuel disease dynamics at different spatial scales JF - Journal of animal ecology : a journal of the British Ecological Society N2 - Understanding the drivers underlying disease dynamics is still a major challenge in disease ecology, especially in the case of long-term disease persistence. Even though there is a strong consensus that density-dependent factors play an important role for the spread of diseases, the main drivers are still discussed and, more importantly, might differ between invasion and persistence periods. Here, we analysed long-term outbreak data of classical swine fever, an important disease in both wild boar and livestock, prevalent in the wild boar population from 1993 to 2000 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany. We report outbreak characteristics and results from generalized linear mixed models to reveal what factors affected infection risk on both the landscape and the individual level. Spatiotemporal outbreak dynamics showed an initial wave-like spread with high incidence during the invasion period followed by a drop of incidence and an increase in seroprevalence during the persistence period. Velocity of spread increased with time during the first year of outbreak and decreased linearly afterwards, being on average 7.6 km per quarter. Landscape- and individual-level analyses of infection risk indicate contrasting seasonal patterns. During the persistence period, infection risk on the landscape level was highest during autumn and winter seasons, probably related to spatial behaviour such as increased long-distance movements and contacts induced by rutting and escaping movements. In contrast, individual-level infection risk peaked in spring, probably related to the concurrent birth season leading to higher densities, and was significantly higher in piglets than in reproductive animals. Our findings highlight that it is important to investigate both individual- and landscape-level patterns of infection risk to understand long-term persistence of wildlife diseases and to guide respective management actions. Furthermore, we highlight that exploring different temporal aggregation of the data helps to reveal important seasonal patterns, which might be masked otherwise. KW - classical swine fever KW - disease invasion KW - infection risk KW - pathogen persistence KW - seasonality KW - Sus scrofa KW - wild boar KW - wildlife disease Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13070 SN - 0021-8790 SN - 1365-2656 VL - 88 IS - 11 SP - 1812 EP - 1824 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER -