TY - JOUR A1 - Putra, Muhammad Panji Islam Fajar A1 - Pradhan, Prajal A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - A systematic analysis of Water-Energy-Food security nexus BT - a South Asian case study JF - The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man N2 - Most South Asian countries have challenges in ensuring water, energy, and food (WEF) security, which are often interacting positively or negatively. To address these challenges, the nexus approach provides a framework to identify the interactions of the WEF sectors as an integrated system. However, most nexus studies only qualitatively discuss the interactions between these sectors. This study conducts a systematic analysis of the WEF security nexus in South Asia by using open data sources at the country scale. We analyze interactions between the WEF sectors statistically, defining positive and negative correlations between the WEF security indicators as synergies and trade-offs, respectively. By creating networks of the synergies and trade-offs, we further identify most positively and negatively influencing indicators in the WEF security nexus. We observe a larger share of trade-offs than synergies within the water and energy sectors and a larger share of synergies than trade-offs among the WEF sectors for South Asia. However, these observations vary across the South Asian countries. Our analysis highlights that strategies on promoting sustainable energy and discouraging fossil fuel use could have overall positive effects on the WEF security nexus in the countries. This study provides evidence for considering the WEF security nexus as an integrated system rather than just a combination of three different sectors or securities. KW - water security KW - food security KW - energy security KW - network analysis KW - water-energy-food nexus KW - sustainable development Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138451 SN - 0048-9697 SN - 1879-1026 VL - 728 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pradhan, Prajal A1 - Costa, Luís Fílípe Carvalho da A1 - Rybski, Diego A1 - Lucht, Wolfgang A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - A Systematic Study of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Interactions JF - Earths Future N2 - Sustainable development goals (SDGs) have set the 2030 agenda to transform our world by tackling multiple challenges humankind is facing to ensure well-being, economic prosperity, and environmental protection. In contrast to conventional development agendas focusing on a restricted set of dimensions, the SDGs provide a holistic and multidimensional view on development. Hence, interactions among the SDGs may cause diverging results. To analyze the SDG interactions we systematize the identification of synergies and trade-offs using official SDG indicator data for 227 countries. A significant positive correlation between a pair of SDG indicators is classified as a synergy while a significant negative correlation is classified as a trade-off. We rank synergies and trade-offs between SDGs pairs on global and country scales in order to identify the most frequent SDG interactions. For a given SDG, positive correlations between indicator pairs were found to outweigh the negative ones in most countries. Among SDGs the positive and negative correlations between indicator pairs allowed for the identification of particular global patterns. SDG 1 (No poverty) has synergetic relationship with most of the other goals, whereas SDG 12 (Responsible consumption and production) is the goal most commonly associated with trade-offs. The attainment of the SDG agenda will greatly depend on whether the identified synergies among the goals can be leveraged. In addition, the highlighted trade-offs, which constitute obstacles in achieving the SDGs, need to be negotiated and made structurally nonobstructive by deeper changes in the current strategies. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000632 SN - 2328-4277 VL - 5 SP - 1169 EP - 1179 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Herrero, Mario A1 - Thornton, Philip K. A1 - Mason-D'Croz, Daniel A1 - Palmer, Jeda A1 - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon A1 - Pradhan, Prajal A1 - Barrett, Christopher B. A1 - Benton, Tim G. A1 - Hall, Andrew A1 - Pikaar, Ilje A1 - Bogard, Jessica R. A1 - Bonnett, Graham D. A1 - Bryan, Brett A. A1 - Campbell, Bruce M. A1 - Christensen, Svend A1 - Clark, Michael A1 - Fanzo, Jessica A1 - Godde, Cecile M. A1 - Jarvis, Andy A1 - Loboguerrero, Ana Maria A1 - Mathys, Alexander A1 - McIntyre, C. Lynne A1 - Naylor, Rosamond L. A1 - Nelson, Rebecca A1 - Obersteiner, Michael A1 - Parodi, Alejandro A1 - Popp, Alexander A1 - Ricketts, Katie A1 - Smith, Pete A1 - Valin, Hugo A1 - Vermeulen, Sonja J. A1 - Vervoort, Joost A1 - van Wijk, Mark A1 - van Zanten, Hannah H. E. A1 - West, Paul C. A1 - Wood, Stephen A. A1 - Rockström, Johan T1 - Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals JF - The lancet Planetary health N2 - Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30277-1 SN - 2542-5196 VL - 5 IS - 1 SP - E50 EP - E62 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Warchold, Anne A1 - Pradhan, Prajal A1 - Thapa, Pratibha A1 - Putra, Muhammad Panji Islam Fajar A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Building a unified sustainable development goal database BT - why does sustainable development goal data selection matter? JF - Sustainable development N2 - The 2020s are an essential decade for achieving the 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). For this, SDG research needs to provide evidence that can be translated into concrete actions. However, studies use different SDG data, resulting in incomparable findings. Researchers primarily use SDG databases provided by the United Nations (UN), the World Bank Group (WBG), and the Bertelsmann Stiftung & Sustainable Development Solutions Network (BE-SDSN). We compile these databases into one unified SDG database and examine the effects of the data selection on our understanding of SDG interactions. Among the databases, we observed more different than similar SDG interactions. Differences in synergies and trade-offs mainly occur for SDGs that are environmentally oriented. Due to the increased data availability, the unified SDG database offers a more nuanced and reliable view of SDG interactions. Thus, the SDG data selection may lead to diverse findings, fostering actions that might neglect or exacerbate trade-offs. KW - inequalities KW - SDG indicator databases KW - SDG interactions KW - SDG networks; KW - SDGs KW - synergies and trade-offs Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2316 SN - 0968-0802 SN - 1099-1719 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - GEN A1 - Pradhan, Prajal A1 - Fischer, Günther A1 - Velthuizen, Harrij van A1 - Reusser, Dominik Edwin A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Closing yield gaps BT - how sustainable can we be? T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Global food production needs to be increased by 60-110% between 2005 and 2050 to meet growing food and feed demand. Intensification and/or expansion of agriculture are the two main options available to meet the growing crop demands. Land conversion to expand cultivated land increases GHG emissions and impacts biodiversity and ecosystem services. Closing yield gaps to attain potential yields may be a viable option to increase the global crop production. Traditional methods of agricultural intensification often have negative externalities. Therefore, there is a need to explore location-specific methods of sustainable agricultural intensification. We identified regions where the achievement of potential crop calorie production on currently cultivated land will meet the present and future food demand based on scenario analyses considering population growth and changes in dietary habits. By closing yield gaps in the current irrigated and rain-fed cultivated land, about 24% and 80% more crop calories can respectively be produced compared to 2000. Most countries will reach food self-sufficiency or improve their current food self-sufficiency levels if potential crop production levels are achieved. As a novel approach, we defined specific input and agricultural management strategies required to achieve the potential production by overcoming biophysical and socioeconomic constraints causing yield gaps. The management strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, advanced soil management, land improvement, management strategies coping with weather induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. Finally, we estimated the required fertilizers (N, P2O5, and K2O) to attain the potential yields. Globally, N-fertilizer application needs to increase by 45-73%, P2O5-fertilizer by 22-46%, and K2O-fertilizer by 2-3 times compared to the year 2010 to attain potential crop production. The sustainability of such agricultural intensification largely depends on the way management strategies for closing yield gaps are chosen and implemented. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 491 KW - climate-change KW - management KW - intensification KW - productivity KW - agriculture Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408105 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 491 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Landholm, David M. A1 - Pradhan, Prajal A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Diverging forest land use dynamics induced by armed conflict across the tropics JF - Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions N2 - Armed conflicts trigger region-specific mechanisms that affect land use change. Deforestation is presented as one of the most common negative environmental impacts resulting from armed conflicts, with relevant consequences in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and loss of ecosystem services. However, the impact of armed conflict on forests is complex and may simultaneously lead to positive and negative environmental outcomes, i.e. forest regrowth and deforestation, in different regions even within a country. We investigate the impact that armed conflict exerted over forest dynamics at different spatial scales in Colombia and for the global tropics during the period 1992–2015. Through the analysis of its internally displaced population (departures) our results suggest that, albeit finding forest regrowth in some municipalities, the Colombian conflict predominantly exerted a negative impact on its forests. A further examination of georeferenced fighting locations in Colombia and across the globe shows that conflict areas were 8 and 4 times more likely to undergo deforestation, respectively, in the following years in relation to average deforestation rates. This study represents a municipality level, long-term spatial analysis of the diverging effects the Colombian conflict exerted over its forest dynamics over two distinct periods of increasing and decreasing conflict intensity. Moreover, it presents the first quantified estimate of conflict's negative impact on forest ecosystems across the globe. The relationship between armed conflict and land use change is of global relevance given the recent increase of armed conflicts across the world and the importance of a possible exacerbation of armed conflicts and migration as climate change impacts increase. KW - Armed conflict KW - Deforestation KW - Internally displaced persons KW - Migration KW - Land use change drivers KW - Colombian conflict Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.006 SN - 0959-3780 SN - 1872-9495 VL - 56 SP - 86 EP - 94 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pradhan, Prajal A1 - Lüdeke, Matthias K. B. A1 - Rösser, Dominik E. A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Embodied crop calories in animal products JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Increases in animal products consumption and the associated environmental consequences have been a matter of scientific debate for decades. Consequences of such increases include rises in greenhouse gas emissions, growth of consumptive water use, and perturbation of global nutrients cycles. These consequences vary spatially depending on livestock types, their densities and their production system. In this letter, we investigate the spatial distribution of embodied crop calories in animal products. On a global scale, about 40% of the global crop calories are used as livestock feed (we refer to this ratio as crop balance for livestock) and about 4 kcal of crop products are used to generate 1 kcal of animal products (embodied crop calories of around 4). However, these values vary greatly around the world. In some regions, more than 100% of the crops produced is required to feed livestock requiring national or international trade to meet the deficit in livestock feed. Embodied crop calories vary between less than 1 for 20% of the livestock raising areas worldwide and greater than 10 for another 20% of the regions. Low values of embodied crop calories are related to production systems for ruminants based on fodder and forage, while large values are usually associated with production systems for non-ruminants fed on crop products. Additionally, we project the future feed demand considering three scenarios: (a) population growth, (b) population growth and changes in human dietary patterns and (c) changes in population, dietary patterns and feed conversion efficiency. When considering dietary changes, we project the global feed demand to be almost doubled (1.8-2.3 times) by 2050 compared to 2000, which would force us to produce almost equal or even more crops to raise our livestock than to directly nourish ourselves in the future. Feed demand is expected to increase over proportionally in Africa, South-Eastern Asia and Southern Asia, putting additional stress on these regions. KW - crop products KW - animal calories KW - dietary patterns KW - livestock feed KW - gridded data Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044044 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 8 IS - 4 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pradhan, Prajal A1 - Reusser, Dominik Edwin A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Embodied greenhouse gas emissions in Diets JF - PLoS one N2 - Changing food consumption patterns and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been a matter of scientific debate for decades. The agricultural sector is one of the major GHG emitters and thus holds a large potential for climate change mitigation through optimal management and dietary changes. We assess this potential, project emissions, and investigate dietary patterns and their changes globally on a per country basis between 1961 and 2007. Sixteen representative and spatially differentiated patterns with a per capita calorie intake ranging from 1,870 to >3,400 kcal/day were derived. Detailed analyses show that low calorie diets are decreasing worldwide, while in parallel diet composition is changing as well: a discernable shift towards more balanced diets in developing countries can be observed and steps towards more meat rich diets as a typical characteristics in developed countries. Low calorie diets which are mainly observable in developing countries show a similar emission burden than moderate and high calorie diets. This can be explained by a less efficient calorie production per unit of GHG emissions in developing countries. Very high calorie diets are common in the developed world and exhibit high total per capita emissions of 3.7-6.1 kg CO2eq./day due to high carbon intensity and high intake of animal products. In case of an unbridled demographic growth and changing dietary patterns the projected emissions from agriculture will approach 20 Gt CO2eq./yr by 2050. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0062228 SN - 1932-6203 VL - 8 IS - 5 PB - PLoS CY - San Fransisco ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Athare, Tushar Ramchandra A1 - Pradhan, Prajal A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Environmental implications and socioeconomic characterisation of Indian diets JF - The science of the total environment N2 - India is facing a double burden of malnourishment with co-existences of under- and over-nourishment. Various socioeconomic factors play an essential role in determining dietary choices. Agriculture is one of the major emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in India, contributing 18% of total emissions. It also consumes freshwater and uses land significantly. We identify eleven Indian diets by applying k-means cluster analysis on latest data from the Indian household consumer expenditure survey. The diets vary in calorie intake [2289-3218 kcal/Consumer Unit (CU)/day] and dietary composition. Estimated embodied GHG emissions in the diets range from 1.36 to 3.62 kg CO2eq./CU/day, land footprint from 4 to 5.45 m(2)/CU/day, whereas water footprint varies from 2.13 to 2.97m(3)/CU/day. Indian diets deviate from a healthy reference diet either with too much or too little consumption of certain food groups. Overall, cereals, sugar, and dairy products intake are higher. In contrast, the consumption of fruits and vegetables, pulses, and nuts is lower than recommended. Our study contributes to deriving required polices for the sustainable transformation of food systems in India to eliminate malnourishment and to reduce the environmental implications of the food systems. (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Indian diets KW - GHG emissions KW - land and water footprint KW - healthy diets KW - socioeconomic factors Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139881 SN - 0048-9697 SN - 1879-1026 VL - 737 PB - Elsevier Science CY - Amsterdam [u.a.] ER - TY - THES A1 - Pradhan, Prajal T1 - Food demand and supply under global change T1 - Nahrungsmittelnachfrage und -Versorgung im Globalen Wandel N2 - Anthropogenic activities have transformed the Earth's environment, not only on local level, but on the planetary-scale causing global change. Besides industrialization, agriculture is a major driver of global change. This change in turn impairs the agriculture sector, reducing crop yields namely due to soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change. However, this is a more complex issue than it appears. Crop yields can be increased by use of agrochemicals and fertilizers which are mainly produced by fossil energy. This is important to meet the increasing food demand driven by global demographic change, which is further accelerated by changes in regional lifestyles. In this dissertation, we attempt to address this complex problem exploring agricultural potential globally but on a local scale. For this, we considered the influence of lifestyle changes (dietary patterns) as well as technological progress and their effects on climate change, mainly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Furthermore, we examined options for optimizing crop yields in the current cultivated land with the current cropping patterns by closing yield gaps. Using this, we investigated in a five-minute resolution the extent to which food demand can be met locally, and/or by regional and/or global trade. Globally, food consumption habits are shifting towards calorie rich diets. Due to dietary shifts combined with population growth, the global food demand is expected to increase by 60-110% between 2005 and 2050. Hence, one of the challenges to global sustainability is to meet the growing food demand, while at the same time, reducing agricultural inputs and environmental consequences. In order to address the above problem, we used several freely available datasets and applied multiple interconnected analytical approaches that include artificial neural network, scenario analysis, data aggregation and harmonization, downscaling algorithm, and cross-scale analysis. Globally, we identified sixteen dietary patterns between 1961 and 2007 with food intakes ranging from 1,870 to 3,400 kcal/cap/day. These dietary patterns also reflected changing dietary habits to meat rich diets worldwide. Due to the large share of animal products, very high calorie diets that are common in the developed world, exhibit high total per capita emissions of 3.7-6.1 kg CO2eq./day. This is higher than total per capita emissions of 1.4-4.5 kg CO2eq./day associated with low and moderate calorie diets that are common in developing countries. Currently, 40% of the global crop calories are fed to livestock and the feed calorie use is four times the produced animal calories. However, these values vary from less than 1 kcal to greater 10 kcal around the world. On the local and national scale, we found that the local and national food production could meet demand of 1.9 and 4.4 billion people in 2000, respectively. However, 1 billion people from Asia and Africa require intercontinental agricultural trade to meet their food demand. Nevertheless, these regions can become food self-sufficient by closing yield gaps that require location specific inputs and agricultural management strategies. Such strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, soil and land improvement, management targeted on mitigating climate induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. However, closing yield gaps in particular requires global N-fertilizer application to increase by 45-73%, P2O5 by 22-46%, and K2O by 2-3 times compare to 2010. Considering population growth, we found that the global agricultural GHG emissions will approach 7 Gt CO2eq./yr by 2050, while the global livestock feed demand will remain similar to 2000. This changes tremendously when diet shifts are also taken into account, resulting in GHG emissions of 20 Gt CO2eq./yr and an increase of 1.3 times in the crop-based feed demand between 2000 and 2050. However, when population growth, diet shifts, and technological progress by 2050 were considered, GHG emissions can be reduced to 14 Gt CO2eq./yr and the feed demand to nearly 1.8 times compare to that in 2000. Additionally, our findings shows that based on the progress made in closing yield gaps, the number of people depending on international trade can vary between 1.5 and 6 billion by 2050. In medium term, this requires additional fossil energy. Furthermore, climate change, affecting crop yields, will increase the need for international agricultural trade by 4% to 16%. In summary, three general conclusions are drawn from this dissertation. First, changing dietary patterns will significantly increase crop demand, agricultural GHG emissions, and international food trade in the future when compared to population growth only. Second, such increments can be reduced by technology transfer and technological progress that will enhance crop yields, decrease agricultural emission intensities, and increase livestock feed conversion efficiencies. Moreover, international trade dependency can be lowered by consuming local and regional food products, by producing diverse types of food, and by closing yield gaps. Third, location specific inputs and management options are required to close yield gaps. Sustainability of such inputs and management largely depends on which options are chosen and how they are implemented. However, while every cultivated land may not need to attain its potential yields to enable food security, closing yield gaps only may not be enough to achieve food self-sufficiency in some regions. Hence, a combination of sustainable implementations of agricultural intensification, expansion, and trade as well as shifting dietary habits towards a lower share of animal products is required to feed the growing population. N2 - Der Mensch beeinflusst die landwirtschaftlichen Erträge unmittelbar durch anthropogen verursachte Treiber des globalen Wandels, wie Bodenerosion, Wasserknappheit und Klimawandel, wovon er und seine Lebensmittelversorgung wiederum direkt betroffen sein werden. Einerseits steigert der Einsatz von Agrochemikalien und mithilfe fossiler Energien erzeugte Dünger die landwirtschaftlichen Erträge. Andererseits tragen Bevölkerungswachstum sowie die Tendenz zu kalorienreichen Ernährungsweisen zu einer vermehrten Nahrungsmittelnachfrage von 60-110% von 2005 bis 2050 bei. Das Decken der wachsenden Lebensmittelnachfrage bei gleichzeitiger Reduktion des landwirtschaftlichen Ressourcenverbrauchs und Umweltbelastungen stellt eine zentrale Herausforderung für die globale Nachhaltigkeit dar. In diesem Rahmen versucht diese Arbeit, die Potentiale der globalen Landwirtschaft auf kleinräumiger Skala auszuloten. Hierbei werden Prognosen zu Auswirkungen von Ernährungsmustern und Veränderungen der landwirtschaftlichen Produktionsmethoden unter Beibehaltung der der Anbaufolge und deren Einfluss auf den Klimawandel berücksichtigt. Projektionen basierend auf räumlich hoch aufgelösten Daten lassen Aussagen darüber zu, inwieweit die Nahrungsmittelproduktion lokal sichergestellt werden kann und falls nicht, wie dies durch regionalen und/oder globalen Handel erfolgen kann. Frei verfügbare Datensätze und Ansätze, wie künstliche neuronale Netze, Szenarioanalysen, Downscaling und skalenübergreifende Methoden werden zur Bearbeitung genutzt. Für den Zeitraum von 1961 bis 2007 konnten 16 globale Ernährungstypologien identifiziert werden. Diese spiegeln vor allem eine Tendenz hin zu fleischhaltiger Kost wider. Durch den hohen Anteil tierischer Produkte verursachen kalorienreiche Ernährungsmuster, wie in Industrieländern üblich, hohe pro Kopf Emissionen von 3,7-6,1 kg CO2eq./Tag und übersteigen die pro Kopf Emissionen von 1,4-4,5 kg CO2eq./Tag einer kalorienarmen Ernährungsweise in Entwicklungsländern. Weltweit werden 40% aller landwirtschaftlichen Erzeugnisse als Futtermittel genutzt, was bedeutet, dass aus einem regional variierenden Wert von weniger als 1 kcal bis 10 kcal Getreide, 1 kcal tierische Produkte erzeugt werden. Im Jahr 2000 konnten lokale und nationale Nahrungsmittelproduktionen die Nachfrage von 1,9 bzw. 4,4 Milliarden Menschen erfüllen. Trotzdem sind ca. 1 Milliarde Menschen in Asien und Afrika auf interkontinentalen Handel angewiesen um ihre Lebensmittelnachfrage zu decken. Bei alleiniger Betrachtung des Bevölkerungswachstums wird ein Anstieg der globalen landwirtschaftlichen Treibhausgasemissionen bis zum Jahr 2050 auf jährlich 7 Gt CO2eq. deutlich, während die Nachfrage nach angebauten Futtermitteln gegenüber 2000 annähernd gleich bleiben wird. Das Hinzuziehen von Ernährungsgewohnheiten zeigt, dass zwischen 2000 und 2050 ein Anstieg der Treibhausgasemissionen auf 20 Gt CO2eq. pro Jahr und eine 1,3-fach gesteigerte Nachfrage nach Futtermittel möglich ist. Der zusätzliche Einbezug von technologischem Fortschritt ergibt, dass Emissionen auf jährlich 14 Gt CO2eq. und der Anstieg der Futtermittelnachfrage auf das 0,8-fache reduziert werden können. Daraus geht die Erkenntnis hervor, dass je nachdem, wie erfolgreich Ertragslücken geschlossen werden, 1,5 bis 6 Milliarden Menschen vom internationalen Handel abhängig sind, welcher mittelfristig zusätzliche fossile Energie benötigt. Der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf Ernteerträge wird den Bedarf an internationalem Handel mit landwirtschaftlichen Produkten um 4% bis 16% erhöhen. Weiterhin lässt sich schlussfolgern, dass insbesondere veränderte Ernährungsgewohnheiten, im Gegensatz zu Bevölkerungswachstum, die Nachfrage nach Getreide, die landwirtschaftlichen Treibhausgasemissionen sowie den internationalen Handel mit Nahrungsmitteln erhöhen werden. Durch adäquaten Technologietransfer und technologischen Fortschritt lassen sich Ernteerträge steigern, landwirtschaftliche Emissionen senken und die Effizienz der Umwandlung von Futtermittel in tierische Produkte erhöhen. Abhängigkeiten vom internationalen Handel könnten durch den Konsum lokaler und regionaler Produkte und durch Diversifizierung von Erzeugnissen verringert werden. Zur Schließung von Ertragslücken sind ortsspezifische Maßnahmen erforderlich, wie die nachhaltige Verwendung von Düngemitteln und Pestiziden, Bodenverbesserung, Maßnahmen zur Abschwächung klimabedingter Ernteschwankungen sowie ein verbesserter Marktzugang. Um die Ernährung einer wachsenden Weltbevölkerung zu gewährleisten, ist eine Kombination aus nachhaltiger Intensivierung und Ausweitung der Landwirtschaft, des Handels sowie Ernährungsmuster mit geringeren Anteilen tierischer Produkte notwendig. KW - food security KW - global change KW - climate change KW - yield gap KW - dietary patterns KW - livestock feed KW - food self-sufficiency KW - emissions KW - food demand KW - dietary changes KW - self-organising maps KW - cross-scale analysis KW - sustainability KW - Nahrungsmittelsicherheit KW - Nahrungsmittelselbstversorgung KW - Ertragslücken KW - Emissionen KW - Futtermittel KW - Ernährungsmuster KW - Ernährungsumstellung KW - Klimawandel KW - Lebensmittelnachfrage KW - selbstorganisierte Karten KW - skalenübergreifende Analyse KW - Nachhaltigkeit Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-77849 ER -