TY - JOUR A1 - Noonan, Michael J. A1 - Tucker, Marlee A. A1 - Fleming, Christen H. A1 - Akre, Thomas S. A1 - Alberts, Susan C. A1 - Ali, Abdullahi H. A1 - Altmann, Jeanne A1 - Antunes, Pamela Castro A1 - Belant, Jerrold L. A1 - Beyer, Dean A1 - Blaum, Niels A1 - Boehning-Gaese, Katrin A1 - Cullen Jr, Laury A1 - de Paula, Rogerio Cunha A1 - Dekker, Jasja A1 - Drescher-Lehman, Jonathan A1 - Farwig, Nina A1 - Fichtel, Claudia A1 - Fischer, Christina A1 - Ford, Adam T. A1 - Goheen, Jacob R. A1 - Janssen, Rene A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Kauffman, Matthew A1 - Kappeler, Peter M. A1 - Koch, Flavia A1 - LaPoint, Scott A1 - Markham, A. Catherine A1 - Medici, Emilia Patricia A1 - Morato, Ronaldo G. A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Oliveira-Santos, Luiz Gustavo R. A1 - Olson, Kirk A. A1 - Patterson, Bruce D. A1 - Paviolo, Agustin A1 - Ramalho, Emiliano Estero A1 - Rosner, Sascha A1 - Schabo, Dana G. A1 - Selva, Nuria A1 - Sergiel, Agnieszka A1 - da Silva, Marina Xavier A1 - Spiegel, Orr A1 - Thompson, Peter A1 - Ullmann, Wiebke A1 - Zieba, Filip A1 - Zwijacz-Kozica, Tomasz A1 - Fagan, William F. A1 - Mueller, Thomas A1 - Calabrese, Justin M. T1 - A comprehensive analysis of autocorrelation and bias in home range estimation JF - Ecological monographs : a publication of the Ecological Society of America. N2 - Home range estimation is routine practice in ecological research. While advances in animal tracking technology have increased our capacity to collect data to support home range analysis, these same advances have also resulted in increasingly autocorrelated data. Consequently, the question of which home range estimator to use on modern, highly autocorrelated tracking data remains open. This question is particularly relevant given that most estimators assume independently sampled data. Here, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of autocorrelation on home range estimation. We base our study on an extensive data set of GPS locations from 369 individuals representing 27 species distributed across five continents. We first assemble a broad array of home range estimators, including Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) with four bandwidth optimizers (Gaussian reference function, autocorrelated‐Gaussian reference function [AKDE], Silverman's rule of thumb, and least squares cross‐validation), Minimum Convex Polygon, and Local Convex Hull methods. Notably, all of these estimators except AKDE assume independent and identically distributed (IID) data. We then employ half‐sample cross‐validation to objectively quantify estimator performance, and the recently introduced effective sample size for home range area estimation ( N̂ area ) to quantify the information content of each data set. We found that AKDE 95% area estimates were larger than conventional IID‐based estimates by a mean factor of 2. The median number of cross‐validated locations included in the hold‐out sets by AKDE 95% (or 50%) estimates was 95.3% (or 50.1%), confirming the larger AKDE ranges were appropriately selective at the specified quantile. Conversely, conventional estimates exhibited negative bias that increased with decreasing N̂ area. To contextualize our empirical results, we performed a detailed simulation study to tease apart how sampling frequency, sampling duration, and the focal animal's movement conspire to affect range estimates. Paralleling our empirical results, the simulation study demonstrated that AKDE was generally more accurate than conventional methods, particularly for small N̂ area. While 72% of the 369 empirical data sets had >1,000 total observations, only 4% had an N̂ area >1,000, where 30% had an N̂ area <30. In this frequently encountered scenario of small N̂ area, AKDE was the only estimator capable of producing an accurate home range estimate on autocorrelated data. KW - animal movement KW - kernel density estimation KW - local convex hull KW - minimum convex polygon KW - range distribution KW - space use KW - telemetry KW - tracking data Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1344 SN - 0012-9615 SN - 1557-7015 VL - 89 IS - 2 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Dean, W. R. J. A1 - Milton, Sue J. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - A conceptual model linking demography of the shrub species Grewia flava to the dynamics of Kalahari savannas N2 - Environmental heterogeneity is a major determinant of plant population dynamics. In semi-arid Kalahari savannas, heterogeneity is created by savanna structure, i.e. by the spatial arrangement and temporal dynamics of woody plant and open grassland microsites. We formulate a conceptual model describing the effects of savanna dynamics on the population dynamics of the animal-dispersed shrub Grewia flava. From empirical results we derive model rules describing effects of savanna structure on several processes in Grewia's life cycle. By formulating the model, we summarise existing information on Grewia demography and identify gaps in this knowledge. Despite a number of such gaps, the model can be used to make certain quantitative predictions. As an example, we apply the model to investigate the role of seed dispersal in Grewia encroachment on rangelands. Model results show that cattle promote encroachment by depositing substantial numbers of seeds in open areas, where Grewia is otherwise dispersal-limited. Finally, we draw some general conclusions about Grewia's life history and population dynamics. Under natural conditions, concentrated seed deposition under woody plants appears to be a key process causing the observed association between Grewia and other woody plants. Furthermore, low rates of recruitment and high adult survival result in slow-motion dynamics of Grewia populations. As a consequence, Grewia populations interact with savanna dynamics on long temporal and short to intermediate spatial scales. Y1 - 2004 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reeg, Jette A1 - Heine, Simon A1 - Mihan, Christine A1 - McGee, Sean A1 - Preuss, Thomas G. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - A graphical user interface for the plant community model IBC-grass JF - Plos One N2 - Plants located adjacent to agricultural fields are important for maintaining biodiversity in semi-natural landscapes. To avoid undesired impacts on these plants due to herbicide application on the arable fields, regulatory risk assessments are conducted prior to registration to ensure proposed uses of plant protection products do not present an unacceptable risk. The current risk assessment approach for these non-target terrestrial plants (NTTPs) examines impacts at the individual-level as a surrogate approach for protecting the plant community due to the inherent difficulties of directly assessing population or community level impacts. However, modelling approaches are suitable higher tier tools to upscale individual-level effects to community level. IBC-grass is a sophisticated plant community model, which has already been applied in several studies. However, as it is a console application software, it was not deemed sufficiently user-friendly for risk managers and assessors to be conveniently operated without prior expertise in ecological models. Here, we present a user-friendly and open source graphical user interface (GUI) for the application of IBC-grass in regulatory herbicide risk assessment. It facilitates the use of the plant community model for predicting long-term impacts of herbicide applications on NTTP communities. The GUI offers two options to integrate herbicide impacts: (1) dose responses based on current standard experiments (acc. to testing guidelines) and (2) based on specific effect intensities. Both options represent suitable higher tier options for future risk assessments of NTTPs as well as for research on the ecological relevance of effects. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0230012 SN - 1932-6203 VL - 15 IS - 3 PB - Plos 1 CY - San Francisco ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Geyer, Juliane A1 - Strixner, Lena A1 - Kreft, Stefan A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Ibisch, Pierre L. T1 - Adapting conservation to climate change: a case study on feasibility and implementation in Brandenburg, Germany JF - Regional environmental change N2 - Conservation actions need to account for global climate change and adapt to it. The body of the literature on adaptation options is growing rapidly, but their feasibility and current state of implementation are rarely assessed. We discussed the practicability of adaptation options with conservation managers analysing three fields of action: reducing the vulnerability of conservation management, reducing the vulnerability of conservation targets (i.e. biodiversity) and climate change mitigation. For all options, feasibility, current state of implementation and existing obstacles to implementation were analysed, using the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany, as a case study. Practitioners considered a large number of options useful, most of which have already been implemented at least in part. Those options considered broadly implemented resemble mainly conventional measures of conservation without direct relation to climate change. Managers are facing several obstacles for adapting to climate change, including political reluctance to change, financial and staff shortages in conservation administrations and conflictive EU funding schemes in agriculture. A certain reluctance to act, due to the high degree of uncertainty with regard to climate change scenarios and impacts, is widespread. A lack of knowledge of appropriate methods such as adaptive management often inhibits the implementation of adaptation options in the field of planning and management. Based on the findings for Brandenburg, we generally conclude that it is necessary to focus in particular on options that help to reduce vulnerability of conservation management itself, i.e. those that enhance management effectiveness. For instance, adaptive and proactive risk management can be applied as a no-regrets option, independently from specific climate change scenarios or impacts, strengthening action under uncertainty. KW - Climate change KW - Adaptation options KW - Nature conservation management KW - Vulnerability Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0609-9 SN - 1436-3798 SN - 1436-378X VL - 15 IS - 1 SP - 139 EP - 153 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Romero-Mujalli, Daniel A1 - Rochow, Markus A1 - Kahl, Sandra M. A1 - Paraskevopoulou, Sofia A1 - Folkertsma, Remco A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Tiedemann, Ralph T1 - Adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity in changing environments: Implications for sexual species with different life history strategies JF - Ecology and Evolution N2 - Populations adapt to novel environmental conditions by genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity. Plastic responses are generally faster and can buffer fitness losses under variable conditions. Plasticity is typically modeled as random noise and linear reaction norms that assume simple one-to- one genotype–phenotype maps and no limits to the phenotypic response. Most studies on plasticity have focused on its effect on population viability. However, it is not clear, whether the advantage of plasticity depends solely on environmental fluctuations or also on the genetic and demographic properties (life histories) of populations. Here we present an individual-based model and study the relative importance of adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity for populations of sexual species with different life histories experiencing directional stochastic climate change. Environmental fluctuations were simulated using differentially autocorrelated climatic stochasticity or noise color, and scenarios of directiona climate change. Nonadaptive plasticity was simulated as a random environmental effect on trait development, while adaptive plasticity as a linear, saturating, or sinusoidal reaction norm. The last two imposed limits to the plastic response and emphasized flexible interactions of the genotype with the environment. Interestingly, this assumption led to (a) smaller phenotypic than genotypic variance in the population (many-to- one genotype–phenotype map) and the coexistence of polymorphisms, and (b) the maintenance of higher genetic variation—compared to linear reaction norms and genetic determinism—even when the population was exposed to a constant environment for several generations. Limits to plasticity led to genetic accommodation, when costs were negligible, and to the appearance of cryptic variation when limits were exceeded. We found that adaptive plasticity promoted population persistence under red environmental noise and was particularly important for life histories with low fecundity. Populations produing more offspring could cope with environmental fluctuations solely by genetic changes or random plasticity, unless environmental change was too fast. KW - developmental canalization KW - environmental change KW - genetic accommodation KW - Individual-based models KW - limits KW - many-to-one genotype–phenotype map KW - noise color KW - phenotypic plasticity KW - reaction norms KW - stochastic fluctuations Y1 - 2020 SN - 2045-7758 VL - 11 IS - 11 PB - John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CY - New Jersey ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reeg, Jette A1 - Strigl, Lea A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Agricultural buffer zone thresholds to safeguard functional bee diversity BT - Insights from a community modeling approach JF - Ecology and Evolution N2 - Wild bee species are important pollinators in agricultural landscapes. However, population decline was reported over the last decades and is still ongoing. While agricultural intensification is a major driver of the rapid loss of pollinating species, transition zones between arable fields and forest or grassland patches, i.e., agricultural buffer zones, are frequently mentioned as suitable mitigation measures to support wild bee populations and other pollinator species. Despite the reported general positive effect, it remains unclear which amount of buffer zones is needed to ensure a sustainable and permanent impact for enhancing bee diversity and abundance. To address this question at a pollinator community level, we implemented a process-based, spatially explicit simulation model of functional bee diversity dynamics in an agricultural landscape. More specifically, we introduced a variable amount of agricultural buffer zones (ABZs) at the transition of arable to grassland, or arable to forest patches to analyze the impact on bee functional diversity and functional richness. We focused our study on solitary bees in a typical agricultural area in the Northeast of Germany. Our results showed positive effects with at least 25% of virtually implemented agricultural buffer zones. However, higher amounts of ABZs of at least 75% should be considered to ensure a sufficient increase in Shannon diversity and decrease in quasi-extinction risks. These high amounts of ABZs represent effective conservation measures to safeguard the stability of pollination services provided by solitary bee species. As the model structure can be easily adapted to other mobile species in agricultural landscapes, our community approach offers the chance to compare the effectiveness of conservation measures also for other pollinator communities in future. KW - agricultural landscape KW - buffer zones KW - community model KW - functional traits KW - solitary bees KW - spatially explicit Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.8748 SN - 2045-7758 VL - 12 SP - 1 EP - 17 PB - Wiley Online Library CY - Hoboken, New Jersey, USA ET - 3 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Buchmann, Carsten M. A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - An allometric model of home range formation explains the structuring of animal communities exploiting heterogeneous resources JF - Oikos N2 - Understanding and predicting the composition and spatial structure of communities is a central challenge in ecology. An important structural property of animal communities is the distribution of individual home ranges. Home range formation is controlled by resource heterogeneity, the physiology and behaviour of individual animals, and their intra- and interspecific interactions. However, a quantitative mechanistic understanding of how home range formation influences community composition is still lacking. To explore the link between home range formation and community composition in heterogeneous landscapes we combine allometric relationships for physiological properties with an algorithm that selects optimal home ranges given locomotion costs, resource depletion and competition in a spatially-explicit individual-based modelling framework. From a spatial distribution of resources and an input distribution of animal body mass, our model predicts the size and location of individual home ranges as well as the individual size distribution (ISD) in an animal community. For a broad range of body mass input distributions, including empirical body mass distributions of North American and Australian mammals, our model predictions agree with independent data on the body mass scaling of home range size and individual abundance in terrestrial mammals. Model predictions are also robust against variation in habitat productivity and landscape heterogeneity. The combination of allometric relationships for locomotion costs and resource needs with resource competition in an optimal foraging framework enables us to scale from individual properties to the structure of animal communities in heterogeneous landscapes. The proposed spatially-explicit modelling concept not only allows for detailed investigation of landscape effects on animal communities, but also provides novel insights into the mechanisms by which resource competition in space shapes animal communities. Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18556.x SN - 0030-1299 VL - 120 IS - 1 SP - 106 EP - 118 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Tews, Jörg A1 - Brose, Ulrich A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Tielbörger, Katja A1 - Wichmann, Matthias A1 - Schwager, Monika T1 - Animal species diversity driven by habitat heterogeneity/diversity : the importance of keystone structures N2 - In a selected literature survey we reviewed studies on the habitat heterogeneity-animal species diversity relationship and evaluated whether there are uncertainties and biases in its empirical support. We reviewed 85 publications for the period 1960-2003. We screened each publication for terms that were used to define habitat heterogeneity, the animal species group and ecosystem studied, the definition of the structural variable, the measurement of vegetation structure and the temporal and spatial scale of the study. The majority of studies found a positive correlation between habitat heterogeneity/diversity and animal species diversity. However, empirical support for this relationship is drastically biased towards studies of vertebrates and habitats under anthropogenic influence. In this paper we show that ecological effects of habitat heterogeneity may vary considerably between species groups depending on whether structural attributes are perceived as heterogeneity or fragmentation. Possible effects may also vary relative to the structural variable measured. Based upon this, we introduce a classification framework that may be used for across-studies comparisons. Moreover, the effect of habitat heterogeneity for one species group may differ in relation to the spatial scale. In several studies, however, different species groups are closely linked to 'keystone structures' that determine animal species diversity by their presence. Detecting crucial keystone structures of the vegetation has profound implications for nature conservation and biodiversity management. Y1 - 2004 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Stephan, T. A1 - Wiegand, T. A1 - Weber, G. E. T1 - Arid rangeland management supported by dynamic spatially-explicit simulation models Y1 - 2001 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Geyer, Juliane A1 - Kreft, Stefan A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Ibisch, Pierre L. T1 - Assessing climate change-robustness of protected area management plans-The case of Germany JF - PLoS one N2 - Protected areas are arguably the most important instrument of biodiversity conservation. To keep them fit under climate change, their management needs to be adapted to address related direct and indirect changes. In our study we focus on the adaptation of conservation management planning, evaluating management plans of 60 protected areas throughout Germany with regard to their climate change-robustness. First, climate change-robust conservation management was defined using 11 principles and 44 criteria, which followed an approach similar to sustainability standards. We then evaluated the performance of individual management plans concerning the climate change-robustness framework. We found that climate change-robustness of protected areas hardly exceeded 50 percent of the potential performance, with most plans ranking in the lower quarter. Most Natura 2000 protected areas, established under conservation legislation of the European Union, belong to the sites with especially poor performance, with lower values in smaller areas. In general, the individual principles showed very different rates of accordance with our principles, but similarly low intensity. Principles with generally higher performance values included holistic knowledge management, public accountability and acceptance as well as systemic and strategic coherence. Deficiencies were connected to dealing with the future and uncertainty. Lastly, we recommended the presented principles and criteria as essential guideposts that can be used as a checklist for working towards more climate change-robust planning. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0185972 SN - 1932-6203 VL - 12 PB - PLoS CY - San Fransisco ER -