TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ramos, Antonio M. T.
A1  - Builes-Jaramillo, Alejandro
A1  - Poveda, German
A1  - Goswami, Bedartha
A1  - Macau, Elbert E. N.
A1  - Kurths, Jürgen
A1  - Marwan, Norbert
T1  - Recurrence measure of conditional dependence and applications
JF  - Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics
N2  - Identifying causal relations from observational data sets has posed great challenges in data-driven causality inference studies. One of the successful approaches to detect direct coupling in the information theory framework is transfer entropy. However, the core of entropy-based tools lies on the probability estimation of the underlying variables. Herewe propose a data-driven approach for causality inference that incorporates recurrence plot features into the framework of information theory. We define it as the recurrence measure of conditional dependence (RMCD), and we present some applications. The RMCD quantifies the causal dependence between two processes based on joint recurrence patterns between the past of the possible driver and present of the potentially driven, excepting the contribution of the contemporaneous past of the driven variable. Finally, it can unveil the time scale of the influence of the sea-surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean on the precipitation in the Amazonia during recent major droughts.
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.95.052206
SN  - 2470-0045
SN  - 2470-0053
VL  - 95
PB  - American Physical Society
CY  - College Park
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Lechleitner, Franziska A.
A1  - Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin
A1  - Rehfeld, Kira
A1  - Ridley, Harriet E.
A1  - Asmerom, Yemane
A1  - Prufer, Keith M.
A1  - Marwan, Norbert
A1  - Goswami, Bedartha
A1  - Kennett, Douglas J.
A1  - Aquino, Valorie V.
A1  - Polyak, Victor
A1  - Haug, Gerald H.
A1  - Eglinton, Timothy I.
A1  - Baldini, James U. L.
T1  - Tropical rainfall over the last two millennia: evidence for a low-latitude hydrologic seesaw
JF  - Scientific reports
N2  - The presence of a low-to mid-latitude interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw is apparent over orbital and glacial-interglacial timescales, but its existence over the most recent past remains unclear. Here we investigate, based on climate proxy reconstructions from both hemispheres, the inter-hemispherical phasing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the low-to mid-latitude teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 2000 years. A clear feature is a persistent southward shift of the ITCZ during the Little Ice Age until the beginning of the 19th Century. Strong covariation between our new composite ITCZ-stack and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) records reveals a tight coupling between these two synoptic weather and climate phenomena over decadal-to-centennial timescales. This relationship becomes most apparent when comparing two precisely dated, high-resolution paleorainfall records from Belize and Scotland, indicating that the low-to mid-latitude teleconnection was also active over annual-decadal timescales. It is likely a combination of external forcing, i.e., solar and volcanic, and internal feedbacks, that drives the synchronous ITCZ and NAO shifts via energy flux perturbations in the tropics.
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/srep45809
SN  - 2045-2322
VL  - 7
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - London
ER  -