TY  - JOUR
A1  - Wang, Ming
A1  - White, Neil
A1  - Grimm, Volker
A1  - Hofman, Helen
A1  - Doley, David
A1  - Thorp, Grant
A1  - Cribb, Bronwen
A1  - Wherritt, Ella
A1  - Han, Liqi
A1  - Wilkie, John
A1  - Hanan, Jim
T1  - Pattern-oriented modelling as a novel way to verify and validate functional-structural plant models
BT  - a demonstration with the annual growth module of avocado
JF  - Annals of botany
N2  - Background and Aims Functional-structural plant (FSP) models have been widely used to understand the complex interactions between plant architecture and underlying developmental mechanisms. However, to obtain evidence that a model captures these mechanisms correctly, a clear distinction must be made between model outputs used for calibration and thus verification, and outputs used for validation. In pattern-oriented modelling (POM), multiple verification patterns are used as filters for rejecting unrealistic model structures and parameter combinations, while a second, independent set of patterns is used for validation. Key Results After calibration, our model simultaneously reproduced multiple observed architectural patterns. The model then successfully predicted, without further calibration, the validation patterns. The model supports the hypothesis that carbon allocation can be modelled as being dependent on current organ biomass and sink strength of each organ type, and also predicted the observed developmental timing of the leaf sink-source transition stage.
KW  - Pattern-oriented modelling
KW  - agent-based model
KW  - individual-based model
KW  - functional-structural plant model
KW  - model analysis
KW  - model verification
KW  - model validation
KW  - ODD (Overview, Design concepts, Details) protocol
KW  - Persea americana
KW  - plant architecture
KW  - carbon allocation
KW  - L-systems
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcx187
SN  - 0305-7364
SN  - 1095-8290
VL  - 121
IS  - 5
SP  - 941
EP  - 959
PB  - Oxford Univ. Press
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Schroeter, Kai
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
A1  - Vogel, Kristin
A1  - Riggelsen, Carsten
A1  - Scherbaum, Frank
A1  - Merz, Bruno
T1  - How useful are complex flood damage models?
JF  - Water resources research
N2  - We investigate the usefulness of complex flood damage models for predicting relative damage to residential buildings in a spatial and temporal transfer context. We apply eight different flood damage models to predict relative building damage for five historic flood events in two different regions of Germany. Model complexity is measured in terms of the number of explanatory variables which varies from 1 variable up to 10 variables which are singled out from 28 candidate variables. Model validation is based on empirical damage data, whereas observation uncertainty is taken into consideration. The comparison of model predictive performance shows that additional explanatory variables besides the water depth improve the predictive capability in a spatial and temporal transfer context, i.e., when the models are transferred to different regions and different flood events. Concerning the trade-off between predictive capability and reliability the model structure seem more important than the number of explanatory variables. Among the models considered, the reliability of Bayesian network-based predictions in space-time transfer is larger than for the remaining models, and the uncertainties associated with damage predictions are reflected more completely.
KW  - floods
KW  - damage
KW  - model validation
KW  - Bayesian networks
KW  - regression tree
Y1  - 2014
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014396
SN  - 0043-1397
SN  - 1944-7973
VL  - 50
IS  - 4
SP  - 3378
EP  - 3395
PB  - American Geophysical Union
CY  - Washington
ER  -