TY  - JOUR
A1  - Kruse, Stefan
A1  - Herzschuh, Ulrike
T1  - Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years
JF  - eLife
N2  - The biodiversity of tundra areas in northern high latitudes is threatened by invasion of forests under global warming. However, poorly understood nonlinear responses of the treeline ecotone mean the timing and extent of tundra losses are unclear, but policymakers need such information to optimize conservation efforts. Our individual-based model LAVESI, developed for the Siberian tundra-taiga ecotone, can help improve our understanding. Consequently, we simulated treeline migration trajectories until the end of the millennium, causing a loss of tundra area when advancing north. Our simulations reveal that the treeline follows climate warming with a severe, century-long time lag, which is overcompensated by infilling of stands in the long run even when temperatures cool again. Our simulations reveal that only under ambitious mitigation strategies (relative concentration pathway 2.6) will ~30% of original tundra areas remain in the north but separated into two disjunct refugia.
KW  - Larix gmelinii
KW  - Larix cajanderi
KW  - nonlinear response
KW  - treeline ecotone
KW  - tundra
KW  - Ecology
KW  - Short Report
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.75163
SN  - 2050-084X
VL  - 11
PB  - eLife Sciences Publications
CY  - Cambridge
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Wieczorek, Mareike
A1  - Kolmogorov, Alexei
A1  - Kruse, Stefan
A1  - Jacobsen, Inga
A1  - Nitze, Ingmar
A1  - Nikolaev, Anatoly N.
A1  - Heinrich, Ingo
A1  - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna
A1  - Herzschuh, Ulrike
T1  - Disturbance-effects on treeline larch-stands in the lower Kolyma River area (NE Siberia)
JF  - Silva Fennica : a quarterly journal for forest science
N2  - Tree stands in the boreal treeline ecotone are, in addition to climate change, impacted by disturbances such as fire, water-related disturbances and logging. We aim to understand how these disturbances affect growth, age structure, and spatial patterns of larch stands in the north-eastern Siberian treeline ecotone (lower Kolyma River region), an insufficiently researched region. Stand structure of Larix cajanderi Mayr was studied at seven sites impacted by disturbances. Maximum tree age ranged from 44 to 300 years. Young to medium-aged stands had, independent of disturbance type, the highest stand densities with over 4000 larch trees per ha. These sites also had the highest growth rates for tree height and stem diameter. Overall lowest stand densities were found in a polygonal field at the northern end of the study area, with larches growing in distinct " tree islands". At all sites, saplings are significantly clustered. Differences in fire severity led to contrasting stand structures with respect to tree, recruit, and overall stand densities. While a low severity fire resulted in low-density stands with high proportions of small and young larches, high severity fires resulted in high-density stands with high proportions of big trees. At waterdisturbed sites, stand structure varied between waterlogged and drained sites and latitude. These mixed effects of climate and disturbance make it difficult to predict future stand characteristics and the treeline position.
KW  - treeline
KW  - Larix cajanderi
KW  - Siberia
KW  - fire
KW  - stand structure
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.1666
SN  - 0037-5330
SN  - 2242-4075
VL  - 51
IS  - 3
PB  - The Finnish Society of Forest Science
CY  - Helsinki
ER  -