TY - JOUR A1 - Kranjc Horvat, Anja A1 - Wiener, Jeff A1 - Schmeling, Sascha A1 - Borowski, Andreas T1 - Learning goals of professional development programs at science research institutions BT - a Delphi study with different stakeholder groups JF - Journal of science teacher education : the official journal of the Association for the Education of Teachers in Science N2 - Effective professional development programs (PDPs) rely on well-defined goals. However, recent studies on PDPs have not explored the goals from a multi-stakeholder perspective. This study identifies the most important learning goals of PDPs at science research institutions as perceived by four groups of stakeholders, namely teachers, education researchers, government representatives, and research scientists. Altogether, over 100 stakeholders from 42 countries involved in PDPs at science research institutions in Europe and North America participated in a three-round Delphi study. In the first round, the stakeholders provided their opinions on what they thought the learning goals of PDPs should be through an open-ended questionnaire. In the second and third rounds, the stakeholders assessed the importance of the learning goals that emerged from the first round by rating and ranking them, respectively. The outcome of the study is a hierarchical list of the ten most important learning goals of PDPs at particle physics laboratories. The stakeholders identified enhancing teachers' knowledge of scientific concepts and models and enhancing their knowledge of the curricula as the most important learning goals. Furthermore, the results show strong agreement between all the stakeholder groups regarding the defined learning goals. Indeed, all groups ranked the learning goals by their perceived importance almost identically. These outcomes could help policymakers establish more specific policies for PDPs. Additionally, they provide PDP practitioners at science research institutions with a solid base for future research and planning endeavors. KW - Teacher professional development KW - Delphi study KW - multi-stakeholder KW - analysis KW - pedagogical content knowledge Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/1046560X.2021.1905330 SN - 1046-560X SN - 1573-1847 VL - 33 IS - 1 SP - 32 EP - 54 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Neumann, Daniel A1 - Tiberius, Victor A1 - Biendarra, Florin T1 - Adopting wearables to customize health insurance contributions BT - a ranking-type Delphi JF - BMC medical informatics and decision making N2 - Background Wearables, as small portable computer systems worn on the body, can track user fitness and health data, which can be used to customize health insurance contributions individually. In particular, insured individuals with a healthy lifestyle can receive a reduction of their contributions to be paid. However, this potential is hardly used in practice. Objective This study aims to identify which barrier factors impede the usage of wearables for assessing individual risk scores for health insurances, despite its technological feasibility, and to rank these barriers according to their relevance. Methods To reach these goals, we conduct a ranking-type Delphi study with the following three stages. First, we collected possible barrier factors from a panel of 16 experts and consolidated them to a list of 11 barrier categories. Second, the panel was asked to rank them regarding their relevance. Third, to enhance the panel consensus, the ranking was revealed to the experts, who were then asked to re-rank the barriers. Results The results suggest that regulation is the most important barrier. Other relevant barriers are false or inaccurate measurements and application errors caused by the users. Additionally, insurers could lack the required technological competence to use the wearable data appropriately. Conclusion A wider use of wearables and health apps could be achieved through regulatory modifications, especially regarding privacy issues. Even after assuring stricter regulations, users’ privacy concerns could partly remain, if the data exchange between wearables manufacturers, health app providers, and health insurers does not become more transparent. KW - Delphi study KW - Health insurance KW - Wearable electronic device KW - Wearable technology KW - Internet of Things KW - Barriers Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1186/s12911-022-01851-4 SN - 1472-6947 VL - 22 SP - 1 EP - 7 PB - Springer Nature CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tiberius, Victor A1 - Gojowy, Robin A1 - Dabic, Marina T1 - Forecasting the future of robo advisory BT - a three-stage delphi study on economic, technological, and societal implications JF - Technological forecasting & social change N2 - Robo advisors represent a digital financial advice solution challenging traditional wealth and asset management, investment advice, retirement planning, and tax-loss harvesting. Based on algorithms, big data analysis, machine learning, and other technologies, these services minimize the necessity for human intervention. Based on an international three-stage Delphi study, we provide a plausible forecast of the development of the robo advisor industry, with regards to market development, competition, drivers of growth, customer segments, challenges, services, technologies, and societal change. The results suggest that the financial advice market will experience a further increase in the number of robo advisor services available. Existing and traditional financial advice players will be forced to adjust to the changing environment of the market. Due to low fees and ease of use, robo advisors will be made available to a broad cross section of society, and will cause significant market losses for traditional investment advice companies. Ten years from now, the predominant investment class will remain Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Even though degrees of human intervention are expected to vary considering the complexity of advice, automation will increase in significance when it comes to the development of robo advisors. KW - Robo advisor KW - Financial technology KW - FinTech KW - Investment advice KW - Delphi study KW - scenari Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121824 SN - 0040-1625 SN - 1873-5509 VL - 182 PB - Elsevier CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schulz, Anne A1 - Eder, Amelie A1 - Tiberius, Victor A1 - Solorio, Samantha Casas A1 - Fabro, Manuela A1 - Brehmer, Nataliia T1 - The digitalization of motion picture production and its value chain implications JF - Journalism and media N2 - Technological change and development have been ongoing in the motion picture industry since its beginnings some 125 years ago. What further advancements of digitalization can be expected over the next decade and what are its implications for the industry’s value chain? To answer this question, we conducted an international two-stage Delphi study. The results suggested a more frequent use of smartphones as cameras, the emergence of full digital film sets and digital star avatars, as well as advancements in VR-based and interactive movies. The findings imply challenges for traditional players in the motion picture value chain. Production technology becomes both simpler and more complex, leading to the threat of new entrants. KW - cinema KW - Delphi study KW - digitalization KW - film KW - movie KW - motion picture KW - technological forecasting Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/journalmedia2030024 SN - 2673-5172 VL - 2 IS - 3 SP - 397 EP - 416 PB - MPDI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ermolina, Alena A1 - Tiberius, Victor T1 - Voice-controlled intelligent personal assistants in health care BT - International Delphi Study JF - Journal of medical internet research : international scientific journal for medical research, information and communication on the internet ; JMIR N2 - Background: Voice-controlled intelligent personal assistants (VIPAs), such as Amazon Echo and Google Home, involve artificial intelligence-powered algorithms designed to simulate humans. Their hands-free interface and growing capabilities have a wide range of applications in health care, covering off-clinic education, health monitoring, and communication. However, conflicting factors, such as patient safety and privacy concerns, make it difficult to foresee the further development of VIPAs in health care.
Objective: This study aimed to develop a plausible scenario for the further development of VIPAs in health care to support decision making regarding the procurement of VIPAs in health care organizations. Methods: We conducted a two-stage Delphi study with an internationally recruited panel consisting of voice assistant experts, medical professionals, and representatives of academia, governmental health authorities, and nonprofit health associations having expertise with voice technology. Twenty projections were formulated and evaluated by the panelists. Descriptive statistics were used to derive the desired scenario.
Results: The panelists expect VIPAs to be able to provide solid medical advice based on patients' personal health information and to have human-like conversations. However, in the short term, voice assistants might neither provide frustration-free user experience nor outperform or replace humans in health care. With a high level of consensus, the experts agreed with the potential of VIPAs to support elderly people and be widely used as anamnesis, informational, self-therapy, and communication tools by patients and health care professionals. Although users' and governments' privacy concerns are not expected to decrease in the near future, the panelists believe that strict regulations capable of preventing VIPAs from providing medical help services will not be imposed.
Conclusions: According to the surveyed experts, VIPAs will show notable technological development and gain more user trust in the near future, resulting in widespread application in health care. However, voice assistants are expected to solely support health care professionals in their daily operations and will not be able to outperform or replace medical staff. KW - Delphi study KW - medical informatics KW - voice-controlled intelligent personal KW - assistants KW - internet of things KW - smart devices Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2196/25312 SN - 1438-8871 VL - 23 IS - 4 PB - Healthcare World CY - Richmond, Va. ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tiberius, Victor A1 - Hoffmeister, Leonie A1 - Weyland, Michael T1 - Prospective shifts in executive education BT - an international Delphi study JF - The international journal of management education N2 - Executive education (EE) has been an established means for management education. However, due to the ever-changing business environment, progress in education technology, and new competitors, EE has been continuously evolving and can be expected to further change. Employing a three-stage international Delphi study, we identify a plausible scenario for the further development of EE over the next decade. The results suggest major changes for management training. The panel expects major shifts in teaching methods and curricula construction. Business schools are expected to increase content customization, to adapt delivery formats, and to enhance coverage of topical issues to better respond to leaders' needs. KW - Continuous education KW - Delphi study KW - Executive education KW - Leadership KW - development KW - Management education Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijme.2021.100514 SN - 1472-8117 SN - 2352-3565 VL - 19 IS - 3 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Weyer, Julia A1 - Tiberius, Victor A1 - Bican, Peter A1 - Kraus, Sascha T1 - Digitizing grocery retailing BT - the role of emerging technologies in the value chain JF - International journal of innovation and technology management N2 - Multiple emerging technologies both threaten grocers and offer them attractive opportunities to enhance their value propositions, improve processes, reduce costs, and therefore generate competitive advantages. Among the variety of technological innovations and considering the scarcity of resources, it is unclear which technologies to focus on and where to implement them in the value chain. To develop the most probable technology forecast that addresses the application of emerging technologies in the grocery value chain within the current decade, we conduct a two-stage Delphi study. Our results suggest a high relevance of almost all technologies. The panel is only skeptical about three specific projections. As a consequence, grocers are advised to build up knowledge regarding the application of these technologies in the most promising areas of their value chain. KW - Delphi study KW - technological forecasting KW - grocery retailing KW - artificial intelligence KW - augmented reality KW - big data analytics KW - blockchain technology KW - drones KW - RFID Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219877020500583 SN - 0219-8770 SN - 1793-6950 VL - 17 IS - 08 PB - World Scientific Publishing CY - Singapore ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Prommer, Lisa A1 - Tiberius, Victor A1 - Kraus, Sascha T1 - Exploring the future of startup leadership development JF - Journal of Business Venturing Insights N2 - Leadership development (LD) is a crucial success factor for startups to increase their human capital, survival rate, and overall performance. However, only a minority of young ventures actively engage in LD, and research rather focuses on large corporations and SMEs, which do not share the typical startup characteristics such as a rather young workforce, flat hierarchies, resource scarcity, and high time pressure. To overcome this practical and theoretical lack of knowledge, we engage in foresight and explore which leadership development techniques will be most relevant for startups within the next five to ten years. To formulate the most probable scenario, we conduct an international, two-stage Delphi study with 27 projections among industry experts. According to the expert panel, the majority of startups will engage in leadership development over the next decade. Most startups will aim to develop the leadership capabilities of their workforce as a whole and use external support. The most prominent prospective LD measures in startups include experiential learning methods, such as action learning, developmental job assignments, multi-rater feedback, as well as digital experiential learning programs, and developmental relationships such as coaching in digital one-to-one sessions. Self-managed learning will play a more important role than formal training. KW - startup KW - leadership development KW - Delphi study KW - forecasting KW - foresigh Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbvi.2020.e00200 SN - 2352-6734 VL - 14 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Studen, Laura A1 - Tiberius, Victor T1 - Social Media, Quo Vadis? BT - Prospective Development and Implications JF - Future Internet N2 - Over the past two decades, social media have become a crucial and omnipresent cultural and economic phenomenon, which has seen platforms come and go and advance technologically. In this study, we explore the further development of social media regarding interactive technologies, platform development, relationships to news media, the activities of institutional and organizational users, and effects of social media on the individual and the society over the next five to ten years by conducting an international, two-stage Delphi study. Our results show that enhanced interaction on platforms, including virtual and augmented reality, somatosensory sense, and touch- and movement-based navigation are expected. AIs will interact with other social media users. Inactive user profiles will outnumber active ones. Platform providers will diversify into the WWW, e-commerce, edu-tech, fintechs, the automobile industry, and HR. They will change to a freemium business model and put more effort into combating cybercrime. Social media will become the predominant news distributor, but fake news will still be problematic. Firms will spend greater amounts of their budgets on social media advertising, and schools, politicians, and the medical sector will increase their social media engagement. Social media use will increasingly lead to individuals’ psychic issues. Society will benefit from economic growth and new jobs, increased political interest, democratic progress, and education due to social media. However, censorship and the energy consumption of platform operators might rise. KW - Delphi study KW - individual effects KW - interactive technologies KW - news media KW - social media KW - societal effects Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/fi12090146 SN - 1999-5903 VL - 12 IS - 9 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bohn, Nicolai A1 - Kundisch, Dennis T1 - What are we talking about when we talk about technology pivots? BT - a Delphi study JF - Information & management N2 - Technology pivots were designed to help digital startups make adjustments to the technology underpinning their products and services. While academia and the media make liberal use of the term "technology pivot," they rarely align themselves to Ries' foundational conceptualization. Recent research suggests that a more granulated conceptualization of technology pivots is required. To scientifically derive a comprehensive conceptualization, we conduct a Delphi study with a panel of 38 experts drawn from academia and practice to explore their understanding of "technology pivots." Our study thus makes an important contribution to advance the seminal work by Ries on technology pivots. KW - digital startup KW - lean startup approach KW - technology pivot KW - conceptualization KW - Delphi study Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.im.2020.103319 SN - 0378-7206 SN - 1872-7530 VL - 57 IS - 6 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER -