TY - JOUR A1 - Rodríguez Sánchez, Alejandra A1 - Wucherpfennig, Julian A1 - Rischke, Ramona A1 - Iacus, Stefano Maria T1 - Search-and-rescue in the Central Mediterranean Route does not induce migration BT - predictive modeling to answer causal queries in migration research JF - Scientific reports N2 - State- and private-led search-and-rescue are hypothesized to foster irregular migration (and thereby migrant fatalities) by altering the decision calculus associated with the journey. We here investigate this ‘pull factor’ claim by focusing on the Central Mediterranean route, the most frequented and deadly irregular migration route towards Europe during the past decade. Based on three intervention periods—(1) state-led Mare Nostrum, (2) private-led search-and-rescue, and (3) coordinated pushbacks by the Libyan Coast Guard—which correspond to substantial changes in laws, policies, and practices of search-and-rescue in the Mediterranean, we are able to test the ‘pull factor’ claim by employing an innovative machine learning method in combination with causal inference. We employ a Bayesian structural time-series model to estimate the effects of these three intervention periods on the migration flow as measured by crossing attempts (i.e., time-series aggregate counts of arrivals, pushbacks, and deaths), adjusting for various known drivers of irregular migration. We combine multiple sources of traditional and non-traditional data to build a synthetic, predicted counterfactual flow. Results show that our predictive modeling approach accurately captures the behavior of the target time-series during the various pre-intervention periods of interest. A comparison of the observed and predicted counterfactual time-series in the post-intervention periods suggest that pushback policies did affect the migration flow, but that the search-and-rescue periods did not yield a discernible difference between the observed and the predicted counterfactual number of crossing attempts. Hence we do not find support for search-and-rescue as a driver of irregular migration. In general, this modeling approach lends itself to forecasting migration flows with the goal of answering causal queries in migration research. KW - human behaviour KW - population dynamics Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38119-4 SN - 2045-2322 VL - 13 IS - 1 PB - Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dosdall, Henrik A1 - Löckmann, Teresa T1 - Exploring terrorism prevention BT - an organizational perspective on police investigations JF - Journal of organizational sociology N2 - The article analyzes the investigations conducted by the Berlin police into the subsequent perpetrator of the vehicle-ramming attack at a Berlin Christmas market on December 19, 2016. We explore why the police closed these investigations prematurely and thereby focus on an attempt to prevent lone actor terrorism. The analysis shows that the police closed its investigations owing to organizational dynamics driven by an increasing need to justify further resource investments in the face of absent conclusive evidence and scarce resources in relation to the organizational case ecology. We propose hypotheses for future research and formulate three contributions to existing research on the sociology of police, terrorism prevention, and lone actor research. KW - Berlin Christmas market attack KW - case ecologies KW - investigative routines KW - lone actors KW - police Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1515/joso-2022-0002 SN - 2752-2997 VL - 1 IS - 1 SP - 47 EP - 72 PB - De Gruyter CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fritsch, Nina-Sophie A1 - Riederer, Bernhard A1 - Seewann, Lena T1 - Living alone in the city BT - differentials in subjective well-being among single households 1995–2018 JF - Applied research in quality of life N2 - Over the past decades, the number of single households is constantly rising in metropolitan regions. In addition, they became increasingly heterogeneous. In the media, individuals who live alone are sometimes still presented as deficient. Recent research, however, indicates a way more complex picture. Using the example of Vienna, this paper investigates the quality of life of different groups of single households in the city. Based on five waves of the Viennese Quality of Life Survey covering almost a quarter of a century (1995–2018), we analyse six domains of subjective well-being (satisfaction with the financial situation, the housing situation, the main activity, the family life, social contacts, and leisure time activities). Our analyses reveal that, in most domains, average satisfaction of single households has hardly changed over time. However, among those living alone satisfaction of senior people (60+) increased while satisfaction of younger people (below age 30) decreased. Increasing differences in satisfaction with main activity, housing, or financial situation reflect general societal developments on the Viennese labour and housing markets. The old clichéd images of the “young, reckless, happy single” and the “lonely, poor, dissatisfied senior single” reverse reality. KW - subjective well-being KW - living alone KW - singles KW - gender KW - age KW - Vienna Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11482-023-10177-w SN - 1871-2584 SN - 1871-2576 VL - 18 IS - 4 SP - 2065 EP - 2087 PB - Springer Netherlands CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kalleitner, Fabian A1 - Bobzien, Licia T1 - Taxed fairly? BT - how differences in perception shape attitudes towards progressive taxation JF - European sociological review N2 - Empirically, the poor are more likely to support increases in the level of tax progressivity than the rich. Such income-stratified tax preferences can result from differences in preferences of what should be taxed as argued by previous literature. However, it may also result from income-stratified perceptions of what is taxed. This paper argues that the rich perceive higher levels of tax progressivity than the poor and that tax perceptions affect individuals’ support for progressive taxation. Using data from an Austrian survey experiment, we test this argument in three steps: First, in line with past research, we show that individuals’ income positions are connected to individuals’ tax preferences as a self-interest rationale would predict. However, second, we show that this variation is mainly driven by income-stratified tax perceptions. Third, randomly informing a subset of the sample about actual tax rates, we find that changing tax perceptions causally affects support for redistributive taxation among those who initially overestimated the level of tax progressivity. Our results indicate that tax perceptions are relevant for forming tax preferences and suggest that individuals are more polarized in their perceptions of who pays how much taxes than in their support for who should pay how much tax. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcad060 SN - 0266-7215 SN - 1468-2672 VL - 40 IS - 3 SP - 535 EP - 548 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bobzien, Licia T1 - Income inequality and political trust BT - do fairness perceptions matter? JF - Social indicators research N2 - Political trust—in terms of trust in political institutions—is an important precondition for the functioning and stability of democracy. One widely studied determinant of political trust is income inequality. While the empirical finding that societies with lower levels of income inequality have higher levels of trust is well established, the exact ways in which income inequality affects political trust remain unclear. Past research has shown that individuals oftentimes have biased perceptions of inequality. Considering potentially biased inequality perceptions, I argue that individuals compare their perceptions of inequality to their preference for inequality. If they identify a gap between what they perceive and what they prefer (= fairness gap), they consider their attitudes towards inequality unrepresented. This, in turn, reduces trust in political institutions. Using three waves of the ESS and the ISSP in a cross-country perspective, I find that (1) perceiving a larger fairness gap is associated with lower levels of political trust; (2) the fairness gap mediates the link between actual inequality and political trust; and (3) disaggregating the fairness gap measure, political trust is more strongly linked to variation in inequality perceptions than to variation in inequality preferences. This indicates that inequality perceptions are an important factor shaping trust into political institutions. KW - political trust KW - inequality KW - perceptions of inequality KW - fairness Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-023-03168-9 SN - 0303-8300 SN - 1573-0921 VL - 169 IS - 1-2 SP - 505 EP - 528 PB - Springer Nature B.V. CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baumgart, Lene A1 - Boos, Pauline A1 - Eckstein, Bernd T1 - Datafication and algorithmic contingency BT - how agile organisations deal with technical systems JF - Work organisation, labour & globalisation N2 - In the context of persistent images of self-perpetuated technologies, we discuss the interplay of digital technologies and organisational dynamics against the backdrop of systems theory. Building on the case of an international corporation that, during an agile reorganisation, introduced an AI-based personnel management platform, we show how technical systems produce a form of algorithmic contingency that subsequently leads to the emergence of formal and informal interaction systems. Using the concept of datafication, we explain how these interactions are barriers to the self-perpetuation of data-based decision-making, making it possible to take into consideration further decision factors and complementing the output of the platform. The research was carried out within the scope of the research project ‘Organisational Implications of Digitalisation: The Development of (Post-)Bureaucratic Organisational Structures in the Context of Digital Transformation’ funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). KW - digitalisation KW - datafication KW - organisation KW - agile KW - technical system KW - systems theory KW - interaction KW - algorithmic contingency KW - machine learning KW - platform Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.13169/workorgalaboglob.17.1.0061 SN - 1745-641X SN - 1745-6428 VL - 17 IS - 1 SP - 61 EP - 73 PB - Pluto Journals CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sohst, Rhea Ravenna A1 - Acostamadiedo, Eduardo A1 - Tjaden, Jasper T1 - Reducing uncertainty in Delphi surveys BT - a case study on immigration to the EU JF - Demographic research N2 - Background: Following the rapid increase of asylum seekers arriving in the European Union in 2015/16, policymakers have invested heavily in improving their foresight and forecasting capabilities. A common method to elicit expert predictions are Delphi surveys. This approach has attracted concern in the literature, given the high uncertainty in experts’ predictions. However, there exists limited guidance on specific design choices for future-related Delphi surveys. Objective: We test whether or not small adjustments to the Delphi survey can increase certainty (i.e., reduce variation) in expert predictions on immigration to the EU in 2030. Methods: Based on a two-round Delphi survey with 178 migration experts, we compare variation and subjective confidence in expert predictions and assess whether additional context information (type of migration flow, sociopolitical context) promotes convergence among experts (i.e., less variation) and confidence in their own estimates. Results: We find that additional context information does not reduce variation and does not increase confidence in expert predictions on migration. Conclusions: The results reaffirm recent concerns regarding the limited scope for reducing uncertainty by manipulating the survey setup. Persistent uncertainty may be a result of the complexity of migration processes and limited agreement among migration experts regarding key drivers. Contribution: We caution policymakers and academics on the use of Delphi surveys for eliciting expert predictions on immigration, even when conducted based on a large pool of experts and using specific scenarios. The potential of alternative approaches such as prediction markets should be further explored. KW - European Union KW - immigration KW - international migration KW - migration flows Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2023.49.36 SN - 2363-7064 SN - 1435-9871 VL - 49 SP - 983 EP - 1020 PB - Max Planck Inst. for Demographic Research CY - Rostock ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baumgart, Lene A1 - Boos, Pauline A1 - Braunsmann, Katharina T1 - A circulatory loop BT - the reciprocal relationship of organizations, digitalization, and gender JF - Social inclusion N2 - In the digitalization debate, gender biases in digital technologies play a significant role because of their potential for social exclusion and inequality. It is therefore remarkable that organizations as drivers of digitalization and as places for social integration have been widely overlooked so far. Simultaneously, gender biases and digitalization have structurally immanent connections to organizations. Therefore, a look at the reciprocal relationship between organizations, digitalization, and gender is needed. The article provides answers to the question of whether and how organizations (re)produce, reinforce, or diminish gender‐specific inequalities during their digital transformations. On the one hand, gender inequalities emerge when organizations use post‐bureaucratic concepts through digitalization. On the other hand, gender inequalities are reproduced when organizations either program or implement digital technologies and fail to establish control structures that prevent gender biases. This article shows that digitalization can act as a catalyst for inequality‐producing mechanisms, but also has the potential to mitigate inequalities. We argue that organizations must be considered when discussing the potential of exclusion through digitalization. KW - digitalization KW - gender bias KW - gender inequalities KW - organizations Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.17645/si.v11i4.7056 SN - 2183-2803 VL - 11 IS - 4 SP - 160 EP - 171 PB - Cogitatio Press CY - Lisbon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tjaden, Jasper A1 - Spörlein, Christoph T1 - How much do “local policies” matter for refugee integration? BT - an analytical model and evidence from a highly decentralized country JF - International migration review N2 - A growing number of studies have recently postulated a so-called local turn in the study of immigrant and refugee integration policy. A fundamental, yet untested, assumption of this body of research is that local (sub-national) policies and administrations shape how migrants and refugees integrate into society. We develop and apply an analytical model using multilevel modeling techniques based on large-N, longitudinal survey data (N > 9000) with refugees (2012–2018) in a highly decentralized country (Germany) to estimate the scope for local policy effects net of individual-level and state- and district-level characteristics. We show that region and district-level variation in integration outcomes across multiple dimensions (employment, education, language, housing, social) is limited (∼5%) within 4–8 years after immigration. We find modest variation in policy indicators (∼10%), which do not appear to directly translate into outcomes. We discuss implications for the study of local policies and the potential for greater convergence between administrative and political science, interested in governance structures and policy variation, and sociology and economics, interested primarily in integration outcomes. KW - refugee KW - policy KW - integration Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183231205561 SN - 0197-9183 SN - 1747-7379 PB - Sage Publications CY - Thousand Oaks ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Apelt, Maja A1 - Koch, Annika A1 - Michalowski, Ines A1 - Molzberger, Kaspar A1 - Schenk, Liane A1 - Schmidt, Max Oliver T1 - How organisations regulate Muslim body practices BT - a comparison of schools, hospitals, and swimming pools JF - Comparative migration studies N2 - In a comparison of three human service organisations in which the human body plays a key role, we examine how organisations regulate religious body practices. We concentrate on Muslim norms of dressing and undressing as a potential focal point of cultural and religious diversity. Inspired by Ray’s (2019) idea of racialized organizations, we assume that state-run organizations in Germany are characterized by a strong commitment to religious tolerance and non-discrimination but also marked by anti- Muslim sentiment prevalent among the German population. Our study looks for mechanism that explain how Human Service Organizations accommodate Muslim body practices. It draws on qualitative empirical data collected in state-run hospitals, schools and swimming pools in Germany. Our analyses show that the organizations draw on formal and informal rules at the organizational level to accommodate Islam. We identify five general organizational mechanisms that may hinder Muslim accommodation in human service organizations. In particular, we see a risk of decoupling between the expectation of religious tolerance and processes that lead to informal discrimination, driven mainly by the difficulty of controlling group dynamics among users. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1186/s40878-023-00355-y SN - 2214-594X SN - 2214-8590 VL - 11 PB - European Research Centre on Migration and Ethnic Relations CY - Utrecht ER -