TY  - JOUR
A1  - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme
A1  - Hudson, Paul
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - A comparison of factors driving flood losses in households affected by different flood types
JF  - Water resources research
N2  - Flood loss data collection and modeling are not standardized, and previous work has indicated that losses from different flood types (e.g., riverine and groundwater) may follow different driving forces. However, different flood types may occur within a single flood event, which is known as a compound flood event. Therefore, we aimed to identify statistical similarities between loss-driving factors across flood types and test whether the corresponding losses should be modeled separately. In this study, we used empirical data from 4,418 respondents from four survey campaigns studying households in Germany that experienced flooding. These surveys sought to investigate several features of the impact process (hazard, socioeconomic, preparedness, and building characteristics, as well as flood type). While the level of most of these features differed across flood type subsamples (e.g., degree of preparedness), they did so in a nonregular pattern. A variable selection process indicates that besides hazard and building characteristics, information on property-level preparedness was also selected as a relevant predictor of the loss ratio. These variables represent information, which is rarely adopted in loss modeling. Models shall be refined with further data collection and other statistical methods. To save costs, data collection efforts should be steered toward the most relevant predictors to enhance data availability and increase the statistical power of results. Understanding that losses from different flood types are driven by different factors is a crucial step toward targeted data collection and model development and will finally clarify conditions that allow us to transfer loss models in space and time. <br /> Key Points <br /> Survey data of flood-affected households show different concurrent flood types, undermining the use of a single-flood-type loss model Thirteen variables addressing flood hazard, the building, and property level preparedness are significant predictors of the building loss ratio Flood type-specific models show varying significance across the predictor variables, indicating a hindrance to model transferability
KW  - Loss modeling
KW  - Riverine floods
KW  - Surface floods
KW  - Groundwater
KW  - Levee
KW  - breaches
KW  - Compound flood event
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025943
SN  - 0043-1397
SN  - 1944-7973
VL  - 56
IS  - 4
PB  - American Geophysical Union
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Arguello de Souza, Felipe Augusto
A1  - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme
A1  - Guzman Arias, Diego Alejandro
A1  - Sarmento Buarque, Ana Carolina
A1  - Taffarello, Denise
A1  - Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario
T1  - Droughts in São Paulo
BT  - challenges and lessons for a water-adaptive society
JF  - Urban water journal
N2  - Literature has suggested that droughts and societies are mutually shaped and, therefore, both require a better understanding of their coevolution on risk reduction and water adaptation. Although the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region drew attention because of the 2013-2015 drought, this was not the first event. This paper revisits this event and the 1985-1986 drought to compare the evolution of drought risk management aspects. Documents and hydrological records are analyzed to evaluate the hazard intensity, preparedness, exposure, vulnerability, responses, and mitigation aspects of both events. Although the hazard intensity and exposure of the latter event were larger than the former one, the policy implementation delay and the dependency of service areas in a single reservoir exposed the region to higher vulnerability. In addition to the structural and non-structural tools implemented just after the events, this work raises the possibility of rainwater reuse for reducing the stress in reservoirs.
KW  - droughts
KW  - urban water supply
KW  - water crisis
KW  - drought risk
KW  - paired event
KW  - analysis
KW  - vulnerability
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2022.2047735
SN  - 1573-062X
SN  - 1744-9006
VL  - 20
IS  - 10
SP  - 1682
EP  - 1694
PB  - Taylor & Francis
CY  - London [u.a.]
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Taffarello, Denise
A1  - Srinivasan, Raghavan
A1  - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme
A1  - Bittencourt Guimaraes, Joao Luis
A1  - Calijuri, Maria do Carmo
A1  - Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario
T1  - Modeling freshwater quality scenarios with ecosystem-based adaptation in the headwaters of the Cantareira system, Brazil
JF  - Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS
N2  - Although hydrologic models provide hypothesis testing of complex dynamics occurring at catchments, fresh-water quality modeling is still incipient at many subtropical headwaters. In Brazil, a few modeling studies assess freshwater nutrients, limiting policies on hydrologic ecosystem services. This paper aims to compare freshwater quality scenarios under different land-use and land-cover (LULC) change, one of them related to ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA), in Brazilian headwaters. Using the spatially semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, nitrate, total phosphorous (TP) and sediment were modeled in catchments ranging from 7.2 to 1037 km(2). These head-waters were eligible areas of the Brazilian payment for ecosystem services (PES) projects in the Cantareira water supply system, which had supplied water to 9 million people in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region (SPMR). We considered SWAT modeling of three LULC scenarios: (i) recent past scenario (S1), with historical LULC in 1990; (ii) current land-use scenario (S2), with LULC for the period 2010-2015 with field validation; and (iii) future land-use scenario with PES (S2 + EbA). This latter scenario proposed forest cover restoration through EbA following the river basin plan by 2035. These three LULC scenarios were tested with a selected record of rainfall and evapotranspiration observed in 2006-2014, with the occurrence of extreme droughts. To assess hydrologic services, we proposed the hydrologic service index (HSI), as a new composite metric comparing water pollution levels (WPL) for reference catchments, related to the grey water footprint (greyWF) and water yield. On the one hand, water quality simulations allowed for the regionalization of greyWF at spatial scales under LULC scenarios. According to the critical threshold, HSI identified areas as less or more sustainable catchments. On the other hand, conservation practices simulated through the S2 + EbA scenario envisaged not only additional and viable best management practices (BMP), but also preventive decision-making at the headwaters of water supply systems.
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4699-2018
SN  - 1027-5606
SN  - 1607-7938
VL  - 22
IS  - 9
SP  - 4699
EP  - 4723
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Guzman Arias, Diego Alejandro
A1  - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme
A1  - Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario
T1  - Multi-driver ensemble to evaluate the water utility business interruption cost induced by hydrological drought risk scenarios in Brazil
JF  - Urban water journal
N2  - Climate change and increasing water demand in urban environments necessitate planning water utility companies' finances. Traditionally, methods to estimate the direct water utility business interruption costs (WUBIC) caused by droughts have not been clearly established. We propose a multi-driver assessment method. We project the water yield using a hydrological model driven by regional climate models under radiative forcing scenarios. We project water demand under stationary and non-stationary conditions to estimate drought severity and duration, which are linked with pricing policies recently adopted by the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company. The results showed water insecurity. The non-stationary trend imposed larger differences in the drought resilience financial gap, suggesting that the uncertainties of WUBIC derived from demand and climate models are greater than those associated with radiative forcing scenarios. As populations increase, proactively controlling demand is recommended to avoid or minimize reactive policy changes during future drought events, repeating recent financial impacts.
KW  - Business interruption cost
KW  - water utility company
KW  - hydrological
KW  - droughts
KW  - water security
KW  - urban water
KW  - climate change
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2022.2058564
SN  - 1573-062X
SN  - 1744-9006
PB  - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group
CY  - Abingdon
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Guzman, Diego A.
A1  - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme
A1  - Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario
T1  - Multi-year index-based insurance for adapting Water Utility Companies to hydrological drought
BT  - case study of a water supply system of the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, Brazil
JF  - Water
N2  - The sustainability of water utility companies is threatened by non-stationary drivers, such as climate and anthropogenic changes. To cope with potential economic losses, instruments such as insurance are useful for planning scenarios and mitigating impacts, but data limitations and risk uncertainties affect premium estimation and, consequently, business sustainability. This research estimated the possible economic impacts of business interruption to the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company derived from hydrological drought and how this could be mitigated with an insurance scheme. Multi-year insurance (MYI) was proposed through a set of "change" drivers: the climate driver, through forcing the water evaluation and planning system (WEAP) hydrological tool; the anthropogenic driver, through water demand projections; and the economic driver, associated with recent water price policies adopted by the utility company during water scarcity periods. In our study case, the evaluated indices showed that MYI contracts that cover only longer droughts, regardless of the magnitude, offer better financial performance than contracts that cover all events (in terms of drought duration). Moreover, through MYI contracts, we demonstrate solvency for the insurance fund in the long term and an annual average actuarially fair premium close to the total expected revenue reduction.
KW  - multi-year insurance
KW  - climate change
KW  - hydrological drought
KW  - water
KW  - security and economy
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/w12112954
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 12
IS  - 11
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
A1  - Korup, Oliver
T1  - Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models
JF  - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
N2  - Models for the predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly blend data deemed to represent a single flood type and region. Moreover, these approaches largely ignore indicators of preparedness and how predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affected households to explore how Bayesian multilevel models can estimate normalised flood damage stratified by event, region, or flood process type. Multilevel models acknowledge natural groups in the data and allow each group to learn from others. We obtain posterior estimates that differ between flood types, with credibly varying influences of water depth, contamination, duration, implementation of property-level precautionary measures, insurance, and previous flood experience; these influences overlap across most events or regions, however. We infer that the underlying damaging processes of distinct flood types deserve further attention. Each reported flood loss and affected region involved mixed flood types, likely explaining the uncertainty in the coefficients. Our results emphasise the need to consider flood types as an important step towards applying flood loss models elsewhere. We argue that failing to do so may unduly generalise the model and systematically bias loss estimations from empirical data.
KW  - damage
KW  - insurance
KW  - Germany
KW  - transferability
KW  - preparedness
KW  - recovery
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021
SN  - 2195-9269
VL  - 21
SP  - 1599
EP  - 1614
PB  - European Geophysical Society
CY  - Katlenburg-Lindau
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Deusdará-Leal, Karinne
A1  - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme
A1  - Cuartas, Luz Adriana
A1  - Seluchi, Marcelo E.
A1  - Marengo, Jose A.
A1  - Zhang, Rong
A1  - Broedel, Elisangela
A1  - Amore, Diogo de Jesus
A1  - Alvalá, Regina C. S.
A1  - Cunha, Ana Paula M. A.
A1  - Gonçalves, José A. C.
T1  - Trends and climate elasticity of streamflow in south-eastern Brazil basins
JF  - Water
N2  - Trends in streamflow, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) time series, from 1970 to 2017, were assessed for five important hydrological basins in Southeastern Brazil. The concept of elasticity was also used to assess the streamflow sensitivity to changes in climate variables, for annual data and 5-, 10- and 20-year moving averages. Significant negative trends in streamflow and rainfall and significant increasing trend in PET were detected. For annual analysis, elasticity revealed that 1% decrease in rainfall resulted in 1.21-2.19% decrease in streamflow, while 1% increase in PET induced different reductions percentages in streamflow, ranging from 2.45% to 9.67%. When both PET and rainfall were computed to calculate the elasticity, results were positive for some basins. Elasticity analysis considering 20-year moving averages revealed that impacts on the streamflow were cumulative: 1% decrease in rainfall resulted in 1.83-4.75% decrease in streamflow, while 1% increase in PET induced 3.47-28.3% decrease in streamflow. This different temporal response may be associated with the hydrological memory of the basins. Streamflow appears to be more sensitive in less rainy basins. This study provides useful information to support strategic government decisions, especially when the security of water resources and drought mitigation are considered in face of climate change.
KW  - runoff
KW  - precipitation
KW  - potential evapotranspiration
KW  - Pettitt test
KW  - sensitivity
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/w14142245
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 14
IS  - 14
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  -