TY - JOUR A1 - Kürschner, Tobias A1 - Scherer, Cédric A1 - Radchuk, Viktoriia A1 - Blaum, Niels A1 - Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie T1 - Movement can mediate temporal mismatches between resource availability and biological events in host-pathogen interactions JF - Ecology and evolution N2 - Global change is shifting the timing of biological events, leading to temporal mismatches between biological events and resource availability. These temporal mismatches can threaten species' populations. Importantly, temporal mismatches not only exert strong pressures on the population dynamics of the focal species, but can also lead to substantial changes in pairwise species interactions such as host-pathogen systems. We adapted an established individual-based model of host-pathogen dynamics. The model describes a viral agent in a social host, while accounting for the host's explicit movement decisions. We aimed to investigate how temporal mismatches between seasonal resource availability and host life-history events affect host-pathogen coexistence, that is, disease persistence. Seasonal resource fluctuations only increased coexistence probability when in synchrony with the hosts' biological events. However, a temporal mismatch reduced host-pathogen coexistence, but only marginally. In tandem with an increasing temporal mismatch, our model showed a shift in the spatial distribution of infected hosts. It shifted from an even distribution under synchronous conditions toward the formation of disease hotspots, when host life history and resource availability mismatched completely. The spatial restriction of infected hosts to small hotspots in the landscape initially suggested a lower coexistence probability due to the critical loss of susceptible host individuals within those hotspots. However, the surrounding landscape facilitated demographic rescue through habitat-dependent movement. Our work demonstrates that the negative effects of temporal mismatches between host resource availability and host life history on host-pathogen coexistence can be reduced through the formation of temporary disease hotspots and host movement decisions, with implications for disease management under disturbances and global change. KW - classical swine fever KW - dynamic landscapes KW - global change KW - host– pathogen dynamics KW - individual‐ based model KW - movement ecology Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7478 SN - 2045-7758 VL - 11 IS - 10 SP - 5728 EP - 5741 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Scherer, Cedric A1 - Radchuk, Viktoriia A1 - Staubach, Christoph A1 - Mueller, Sophie A1 - Blaum, Niels A1 - Thulke, Hans-Hermann A1 - Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie T1 - Seasonal host life-history processes fuel disease dynamics at different spatial scales JF - Journal of animal ecology : a journal of the British Ecological Society N2 - Understanding the drivers underlying disease dynamics is still a major challenge in disease ecology, especially in the case of long-term disease persistence. Even though there is a strong consensus that density-dependent factors play an important role for the spread of diseases, the main drivers are still discussed and, more importantly, might differ between invasion and persistence periods. Here, we analysed long-term outbreak data of classical swine fever, an important disease in both wild boar and livestock, prevalent in the wild boar population from 1993 to 2000 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany. We report outbreak characteristics and results from generalized linear mixed models to reveal what factors affected infection risk on both the landscape and the individual level. Spatiotemporal outbreak dynamics showed an initial wave-like spread with high incidence during the invasion period followed by a drop of incidence and an increase in seroprevalence during the persistence period. Velocity of spread increased with time during the first year of outbreak and decreased linearly afterwards, being on average 7.6 km per quarter. Landscape- and individual-level analyses of infection risk indicate contrasting seasonal patterns. During the persistence period, infection risk on the landscape level was highest during autumn and winter seasons, probably related to spatial behaviour such as increased long-distance movements and contacts induced by rutting and escaping movements. In contrast, individual-level infection risk peaked in spring, probably related to the concurrent birth season leading to higher densities, and was significantly higher in piglets than in reproductive animals. Our findings highlight that it is important to investigate both individual- and landscape-level patterns of infection risk to understand long-term persistence of wildlife diseases and to guide respective management actions. Furthermore, we highlight that exploring different temporal aggregation of the data helps to reveal important seasonal patterns, which might be masked otherwise. KW - classical swine fever KW - disease invasion KW - infection risk KW - pathogen persistence KW - seasonality KW - Sus scrofa KW - wild boar KW - wildlife disease Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13070 SN - 0021-8790 SN - 1365-2656 VL - 88 IS - 11 SP - 1812 EP - 1824 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER -