TY  - JOUR
A1  - Nowicki, Sophie
A1  - Bindschadler, Robert A.
A1  - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
A1  - Aschwanden, Andy
A1  - Bueler, Ed
A1  - Choi, Hyeungu
A1  - Fastook, Jim
A1  - Granzow, Glen
A1  - Greve, Ralf
A1  - Gutowski, Gail
A1  - Herzfeld, Ute
A1  - Jackson, Charles
A1  - Johnson, Jesse
A1  - Khroulev, Constantine
A1  - Larour, Eric
A1  - Levermann, Anders
A1  - Lipscomb, William H.
A1  - Martin, Maria A.
A1  - Morlighem, Mathieu
A1  - Parizek, Byron R.
A1  - Pollard, David
A1  - Price, Stephen F.
A1  - Ren, Diandong
A1  - Rignot, Eric
A1  - Saito, Fuyuki
A1  - Sato, Tatsuru
A1  - Seddik, Hakime
A1  - Seroussi, Helene
A1  - Takahashi, Kunio
A1  - Walker, Ryan
A1  - Wang, Wei Li
T1  - Insights into spatial sensitivities of ice mass response to environmental change from the SeaRISE ice sheet modeling project II  Greenland
JF  - Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface
N2  - The Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort explores the sensitivity of the current generation of ice sheet models to external forcing to gain insight into the potential future contribution to sea level from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. All participating models simulated the ice sheet response to three types of external forcings: a change in oceanic condition, a warmer atmospheric environment, and enhanced basal lubrication. Here an analysis of the spatial response of the Greenland ice sheet is presented, and the impact of model physics and spin-up on the projections is explored. Although the modeled responses are not always homogeneous, consistent spatial trends emerge from the ensemble analysis, indicating distinct vulnerabilities of the Greenland ice sheet. There are clear response patterns associated with each forcing, and a similar mass loss at the full ice sheet scale will result in different mass losses at the regional scale, as well as distinct thickness changes over the ice sheet. All forcings lead to an increased mass loss for the coming centuries, with increased basal lubrication and warmer ocean conditions affecting mainly outlet glaciers, while the impacts of atmospheric forcings affect the whole ice sheet.
KW  - Greenland
KW  - ice-sheet
KW  - sea-level
KW  - model
KW  - ensemble
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrf.20076
SN  - 2169-9003
VL  - 118
IS  - 2
SP  - 1025
EP  - 1044
PB  - American Geophysical Union
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Horton, Benjamin P.
A1  - Khan, Nicole S.
A1  - Cahill, Niamh
A1  - Lee, Janice S. H.
A1  - Shaw, Timothy A.
A1  - Garner, Andra J.
A1  - Kemp, Andrew C.
A1  - Engelhart, Simon E.
A1  - Rahmstorf, Stefan
T1  - Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
JF  - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
N2  - Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
KW  - projections
KW  - Greenland
KW  - consequences
KW  - climate
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5
SN  - 2397-3722
VL  - 3
IS  - 1
SP  - 1
EP  - 8
PB  - Springer Nature
CY  - London
ER  -