TY - JOUR A1 - Gomez Zapata, Juan Camilo A1 - Zafrir, Raquel A1 - Pittore, Massimiliano A1 - Merino, Yvonne T1 - Towards a sensitivity analysis in seismic risk with probabilistic building exposure models BT - an application in Valparaiso, Chile using ancillary open-source data and parametric ground motions JF - ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information N2 - Efforts have been made in the past to enhance building exposure models on a regional scale with increasing spatial resolutions by integrating different data sources. This work follows a similar path and focuses on the downscaling of the existing SARA exposure model that was proposed for the residential building stock of the communes of Valparaiso and Vina del Mar (Chile). Although this model allowed great progress in harmonising building classes and characterising their differential physical vulnerabilities, it is now outdated, and in any case, it is spatially aggregated over large administrative units. Hence, to more accurately consider the impact of future earthquakes on these cities, it is necessary to employ more reliable exposure models. For such a purpose, we propose updating this existing model through a Bayesian approach by integrating ancillary data that has been made increasingly available from Volunteering Geo-Information (VGI) activities. Its spatial representation is also optimised in higher resolution aggregation units that avoid the inconvenience of having incomplete building-by-building footprints. A worst-case earthquake scenario is presented to calculate direct economic losses and highlight the degree of uncertainty imposed by exposure models in comparison with other parameters used to generate the seismic ground motions within a sensitivity analysis. This example study shows the great potential of using increasingly available VGI to update worldwide building exposure models as well as its importance in scenario-based seismic risk assessment. KW - exposure KW - buildings KW - Bayesian model KW - downscaling KW - OpenStreetMap KW - ground motion fields KW - sensitivity KW - earthquake KW - vulnerability KW - risk Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi11020113 SN - 2220-9964 VL - 11 IS - 2 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hannemann, Katrin A1 - Eulenfeld, Tom A1 - Krüger, Frank A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - Seismic scattering and absorption of oceanic lithospheric S waves in the Eastern North Atlantic JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - The scattering and absorption of high-frequency seismic waves in the oceanic lithosphere is to date only poorly constrained by observations. Such estimates would not only improve our understanding of the propagation of seismic waves, but also unravel the small-scale nature of the lithosphere and its variability. Our study benefits from two exceptional situations: (1) we deployed over 10 months a mid-aperture seismological array in the central part of the Eastern North Atlantic in 5 km water depth and (2) we could observe in total 340 high-frequency (up to 30 Hz) Po and So arrivals with tens to hundreds of seconds long seismic coda from local and regional earthquakes in a wide range of backazimuths and epicentral distances up to 850 km with a travel path in the oceanic lithosphere. Moreover, the array was located about 100 km north of the Gloria fault, defining the plate boundary between the Eurasian and African plates at this location which also allows an investigation of the influence of an abrupt change in lithospheric age (20 Ma in this case) on seismic waves. The waves travel with velocities indicating upper-mantle material. We use So waves and their coda of pre-selected earthquakes to estimate frequency-dependent seismic scattering and intrinsic attenuation parameters. The estimated scattering attenuation coefficients are between 10(-4) and 4 x 10(-5) m(-1) and are typical for the lithosphere or the upper mantle. Furthermore, the total quality factors for So waves below 5 Hz are between 20 and 500 and are well below estimates from previous modelling for observations in the Pacific Ocean. This implies that the Atlantic Ocean is more attenuative for So waves compared to the Pacific Ocean, which is inline with the expected behaviour for the lithospheric structures resulting from the slower spreading rates in the Atlantic Ocean. The results for the analysed events indicate that for frequencies above 3 Hz, intrinsic attenuation is equal to or slightly stronger than scattering attenuation and that the So-wave coda is weakly influenced by the oceanic crust. Both observations are in agreement with the proposed propagation mechanism of scattering in the oceanic mantle lithosphere. Furthermore, we observe an age dependence which shows that an increase in lithospheric age is associated with a decrease in attenuation. However, we also observe a trade-off of this age-dependent effect with either a change in lithospheric thickness or thermal variations, for example due to small-scale upwellings in the upper mantle in the southeast close to Madeira and the Canaries. Moreover, the influence of the nearby Gloria fault is visible in a reduction of the intrinsic attenuation below 3 Hz for estimates across the fault. This is the first study to estimate seismic scattering and absorption parameters of So waves for an area with several hundreds of kilometres radius centred in the Eastern North Atlantic and using them to characterize the nature of the oceanic lithosphere. KW - Body waves KW - Seismic attenuation KW - Wave scattering and diffraction Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab493 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 229 IS - 2 SP - 948 EP - 961 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ben Nsir, Siwar A1 - Jomaa, Seifeddine A1 - Yildirim, Umit A1 - Zhou, Xiangqian A1 - D'Oria, Marco A1 - Rode, Michael A1 - Khlifi, Slaheddine T1 - Assessment of climate change impact on discharge of the lakhmass catchment (Northwest Tunisia) JF - Water N2 - The Mediterranean region is increasingly recognized as a climate change hotspot but is highly underrepresented in hydrological climate change studies. This study aims to investigate the climate change effects on the hydrology of Lakhmass catchment in Tunisia. Lakhmass catchment is a part of the Medium Valley of Medjerda in northwestern Tunisia that drains an area of 126 km(2). First, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning light (HBV-light) model was calibrated and validated successfully at a daily time step to simulate discharge during the 1981-1986 period. The Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency and Percent bias (NSE, PBIAS) were (0.80, +2.0%) and (0.53, -9.5%) for calibration (September 1982-August 1984) and validation (September 1984-August 1986) periods, respectively. Second, HBV-light model was considered as a predictive tool to simulate discharge in a baseline period (1981-2009) and future projections using data (precipitation and temperature) from thirteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climatic Models (RCMs). We used two trajectories of Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Each RCP is divided into three projection periods: near-term (2010-2039), mid-term (2040-2069) and long-term (2070-2099). For both scenarios, a decrease in precipitation and discharge will be expected with an increase in air temperature and a reduction in precipitation with almost 5% for every +1 degrees C of global warming. By long-term (2070-2099) projection period, results suggested an increase in temperature with about 2.7 degrees C and 4 degrees C, and a decrease in precipitation of approximately 7.5% and 15% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This will likely result in a reduction of discharge of 12.5% and 36.6% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This situation calls for early climate change adaptation measures under a participatory approach, including multiple stakeholders and water users. KW - hydrological modeling KW - HBV-light model KW - Mediterranean KW - discharge KW - climate change KW - RCP4,5 and 8,5 Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/w14142242 SN - 2073-4441 VL - 14 IS - 14 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - McCool, Weston C. A1 - Codding, Brian F. A1 - Vernon, Kenneth B. A1 - Wilson, Kurt M. A1 - Yaworsky, Peter M. A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Kennett, Douglas J. T1 - Climate change-induced population pressure drives high rates of lethal violence in the Prehispanic central Andes JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America : PNAS N2 - Understanding the influence of climate change and population pressure on human conflict remains a critically important topic in the social sciences. Long-term records that evaluate these dynamics across multiple centuries and outside the range of modern climatic variation are especially capable of elucidating the relative effect of-and the interaction between-climate and demography. This is crucial given that climate change may structure population growth and carrying capacity, while both climate and population influence per capita resource availability. This study couples paleoclimatic and demographic data with osteological evaluations of lethal trauma from 149 directly accelerator mass spectrometry C-14-dated individuals from the Nasca highland region of Peru. Multiple local and supraregional precipitation proxies are combined with a summed probability distribution of 149 C-14 dates to estimate population dynamics during a 700-y study window. Counter to previous findings, our analysis reveals a precipitous increase in violent deaths associated with a period of productive and stable climate, but volatile population dynamics. We conclude that favorable local climate conditions fostered population growth that put pressure on the marginal and highly circumscribed resource base, resulting in violent resource competition that manifested in over 450 y of internecine warfare. These findings help support a general theory of intergroup violence, indicating that relative resource scarcity-whether driven by reduced resource abundance or increased competition-can lead to violence in subsistence societies when the outcome is lower per capita resource availability. KW - climate change KW - population pressure KW - warfare KW - lethal violence KW - Andes Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2117556119 SN - 0027-8424 SN - 1091-6490 VL - 119 IS - 17 PB - National Acad. of Sciences CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Yuan, Xiaoping P. A1 - Jiao, Ruohong A1 - Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume A1 - Shen, Xiaoming T1 - Southeastern Tibetan Plateau growth revealed by inverse analysis of landscape evolution model JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - The Cenozoic history of the Tibetan Plateau topography is critical for understanding the evolution of the Indian-Eurasian collision, climate, and biodiversity. However, the long-term growth and landscape evolution of the Tibetan Plateau remain ambiguous, it remains unclear if plateau uplift occurred soon after the India-Asia collision in the Paleogene (similar to 50-25 Ma) or later in the Neogene (similar to 20-5 Ma). Here, we reproduce the uplift history of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau using a 2D landscape evolution model, which simultaneously solves fluvial erosion and sediment transport processes in the drainage basins of the Three Rivers region (Yangtze, Mekong, and Salween Rivers). Our model was optimized through a formal inverse analysis with 20,000 forward simulations, which aims to reconcile the transient states of the present-day river profiles. The results, compared to existing paleoelevation and thermochronologic data, suggest initially low elevations (similar to 300-500 m) during the Paleogene, followed by a gradual southeastward propagation of topographic uplift of the plateau margin. KW - Tibetan Plateau KW - landscape evolution KW - fluvial erosion KW - inverse analysis KW - mountain growth KW - propagating uplift Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097623 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 49 IS - 10 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Allison, Hayley J. A1 - Shprits, Yuri Y. A1 - Usanova, Maria E. A1 - Saikin, Anthony A1 - Wang, Dedong T1 - Depletions of Multi-MeV Electrons and their association to Minima in Phase Space Density JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Fast-localized electron loss, resulting from interactions with electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves, can produce deepening minima in phase space density (PSD) radial profiles. Here, we perform a statistical analysis of local PSD minima to quantify how readily these are associated with radiation belt depletions. The statistics of PSD minima observed over a year are compared to the Versatile Electron Radiation Belts (VERB) simulations, both including and excluding EMIC waves. The observed minima distribution can only be achieved in the simulation including EMIC waves, indicating their importance in the dynamics of the radiation belts. By analyzing electron flux depletions in conjunction with the observed PSD minima, we show that, in the heart of the outer radiation belt (L* < 5), on average, 53% of multi-MeV electron depletions are associated with PSD minima, demonstrating that fast localized loss by interactions with EMIC waves are a common and crucial process for ultra-relativistic electron populations. KW - radiation belts KW - EMIC KW - VERB KW - PSD Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097620 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 49 IS - 8 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Heimann, Sebastian A1 - Metz, Malte A1 - Isken, Marius Paul T1 - A self-similar dynamic rupture model based on the simplified wave-rupture analogy JF - Geophysical journal international / the Royal Astronomical Society, the Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft and the European Geophysical Society N2 - The investigation of stresses, faults, structure and seismic hazards requires a good understanding and mapping of earthquake rupture and slip. Constraining the finite source of earthquakes from seismic and geodetic waveforms is challenging because the directional effects of the rupture itself are small and dynamic numerical solutions often include a large number of free parameters. The computational effort is large and therefore difficult to use in an exploratory forward modelling or inversion approach. Here, we use a simplified self-similar fracture model with only a few parameters, where the propagation of the fracture front is decoupled from the calculation of the slip. The approximative method is flexible and computationally efficient. We discuss the strengths and limitations of the model with real-case examples of well-studied earthquakes. These include the M-w 8.3 2015 Illapel, Chile, megathrust earthquake at the plate interface of a subduction zone and examples of continental intraplate strike-slip earthquakes like the M-w 7.1 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, multisegment variable slip event or the M-w 7.5 2018 Palu, Indonesia, supershear earthquake. Despite the simplicity of the model, a large number of observational features ranging from different rupture-front isochrones and slip distributions to directional waveform effects or high slip patches are easy to model. The temporal evolution of slip rate and rise time are derived from the incremental growth of the rupture and the stress drop without imposing other constraints. The new model is fast and implemented in the open-source Python seismology toolbox Pyrocko, ready to study the physics of rupture and to be used in finite source inversions. KW - Earthquake dynamics KW - Earthquake ground motions KW - Earthquake hazards KW - Earthquake source observations Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab045 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 225 IS - 3 SP - 1586 EP - 1604 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Krstulović, Marija A1 - Rosa, Angelika D. A1 - Biedermann, Nicole A1 - Irifune, Tetsuo A1 - Wilke, Max T1 - Structural changes in aluminosilicate glasses up to 164 GPa and the role of alkali, alkaline earth cations and alumina in the densification mechanism JF - Chemical geology : official journal of the European Association for Geochemistry N2 - Pressure induced structural changes in silicate melts have a great impact on their physico-chemical properties and hence on their behaviour in the deep Earth's interior. In order to gain a deeper understanding we have studied the densification mechanism in multicomponent aluminosilicate glasses (albitic and albit-diopside composition) by means of extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy coupled to a diamond anvil cell up to 164 GPa. We have monitored the structural modifications from the network-former Ge as well as the network-modifier Sr. Notably, we tracked the evolution of Ge-O and Sr-O bond lengths (RGe-O, RSr-O) and their coordination number with pressure. We show that RGe-O increases strongly up to about 32 GPa, whereas RSr-O increases only slightly up to similar to 26 GPa. We assign these extensions to the increase of the coordination number from 4 to 6 (Ge) and from similar to 6 to at least 9 (Sr). Upon further compression RGe-O and RSr-O exhibit a continuous decrease to the highest probed pressure. These bond contractions, notably of RGe-O, that are continuous and exceed the one observed in pure SiO2 and GeO2, reflect a higher structural flexibility of multi-component glasses compared to those simple systems. Particularly, the high fraction of non-bridging oxygen atoms due to the presence of Na, Sr, Ca, Mg in the studied glasses, favours the simple compression of the highly-coordinated polyhedra of Si and Ge at pressure greater than 30 GPa. This is in strong contrast to pure oxides where cation polyhedral distortions govern the densification mechanism of the glass. The results of this study demonstrate that low field-strength alkali and alkaline earth cations, ubiquitous in deep Earth's melts, have a profound influence on the densification mechanism of glasses. Our results provide important constrains for interpreting the observed low velocity anomalies at the Earth's core-mantle boundary that have been, beyond others, referred to the presence of high-density melts. The hypothesis that non-buoyant melts at the Earth's core-mantle boundary can be formed by peculiar structural transformations in melts leading to higher coordination numbers compared to their crystalline equivalents is not supported from the present observations. The present results rather suggest that if velocity anomalies are to be explained by melts, these likely have considerable differences in chemical composition to the surrounding crystalline phase assemblage. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2020.119980 SN - 0009-2541 SN - 1872-6836 VL - 560 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zuhr, Alexandra M. A1 - Dolman, Andrew M. A1 - Ho, Sze Ling A1 - Groeneveld, Jeroen A1 - Loewemark, Ludvig A1 - Grotheer, Hendrik A1 - Su, Chih-Chieh A1 - Laepple, Thomas T1 - Age-heterogeneity in marine sediments revealed by three-dimensional high-resolution radiocarbon measurements JF - Frontiers in Earth Science N2 - Marine sedimentary archives are routinely used to reconstruct past environmental changes. In many cases, bioturbation and sedimentary mixing affect the proxy time-series and the age-depth relationship. While idealized models of bioturbation exist, they usually assume homogeneous mixing, thus that a single sample is representative for the sediment layer it is sampled from. However, it is largely unknown to which extent this assumption holds for sediments used for paleoclimate reconstructions. To shed light on 1) the age-depth relationship and its full uncertainty, 2) the magnitude of mixing processes affecting the downcore proxy variations, and 3) the representativity of the discrete sample for the sediment layer, we designed and performed a case study on South China Sea sediment material which was collected using a box corer and which covers the last glacial cycle. Using the radiocarbon content of foraminiferal tests as a tracer of time, we characterize the spatial age-heterogeneity of sediments in a three-dimensional setup. In total, 118 radiocarbon measurements were performed on defined small- and large-volume bulk samples ( similar to 200 specimens each) to investigate the horizontal heterogeneity of the sediment. Additionally, replicated measurements on small numbers of specimens (10 x 5 specimens) were performed to assess the heterogeneity within a sample volume. Visual assessment of X-ray images and a quantitative assessment of the mixing strength show typical mixing from bioturbation corresponding to around 10 cm mixing depth. Notably, our 3D radiocarbon distribution reveals that the horizontal heterogeneity (up to 1,250 years), contributing to the age uncertainty, is several times larger than the typically assumed radiocarbon based age-model error (single errors up to 250 years). Furthermore, the assumption of a perfectly bioturbated layer with no mixing underneath is not met. Our analysis further demonstrates that the age-heterogeneity might be a function of sample size; smaller samples might contain single features from the incomplete mixing and are thus less representative than larger samples. We provide suggestions for future studies, optimal sampling strategies for quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions and realistic uncertainty in age models, as well as discuss possible implications for the interpretation of paleoclimate records. KW - paleoceanography KW - radiocarbon KW - age-heterogeneity KW - marine sediments KW - planktonic foraminifera KW - bioturbation KW - agemodeling KW - South China Sea Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.871902 SN - 2296-6463 VL - 10 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zhu, Chuanbin A1 - Cotton, Fabrice A1 - Kwak, Dong-Youp A1 - Ji, Kun A1 - Kawase, Hiroshi A1 - Pilz, Marco T1 - Within-site variability in earthquake site response JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - The within-site variability in site response is the randomness in site response at a given site from different earthquakes and is treated as aleatory variability in current seismic hazard/risk analyses. In this study, we investigate the single-station variability in linear site response at K-NET and KiK-net stations in Japan using a large number of earthquake recordings. We found that the standard deviation of the horizontal-to-vertical Fourier spectral ratio at individual sites, that is single-station horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) sigma sigma(HV,s), approximates the within-site variability in site response quantified using surface-to-borehole spectral ratios (for oscillator frequencies higher than the site fundamental frequency) or empirical ground-motion models. Based on this finding, we then utilize the single-station HVSR sigma as a convenient tool to study the site-response variability at 697 KiK-net and 1169 K-NET sites. Our results show that at certain frequencies, stiff, rough and shallow sites, as well as small and local events tend to have a higher sigma(HV,s). However, when being averaged over different sites, the single-station HVSR sigma, that is sigma(HV), increases gradually with decreasing frequency. In the frequency range of 0.25-25 Hz, sigma(HV) is centred at 0.23-0.43 in ln scales (a linear scale factor of 1.26-1.54) with one standard deviation of less than 0.1. sigma(HV) is quite stable across different tectonic regions, and we present a constant, as well as earthquake magnitude- and distance-dependent sigma(HV) models. KW - earthquake ground motions KW - earthquake hazards KW - site effects Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab481 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 229 IS - 2 SP - 1268 EP - 1281 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER -