TY - GEN A1 - Auhagen, Christopher Patrick A1 - Uth, Melanie T1 - Variation of relative complementizers in Yucatecan Spanish BT - A comparison of monolingual and bilingual speakers T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Philosophische Reihe N2 - The starting point of this article is the occurrence of determiner-less and bare que relative complementizers like (en) que, ‘(in) that’, instead of (en) el que, ‘(in) which’, in Yucatecan Spanish (southeast Mexico). While reference grammars treat complementizers with a determiner as the standard option, previous diachronic research has shown that determiner-less complementizers actually predate relative complementizers with a determiner. Additionally, Yucatecan Spanish has been in long-standing contact with Yucatec Maya. Relative complementation in Yucatec Maya differs from that in Spanish (at least) in that the non-complex complementizer tu’ux (‘where’) is generally the only option for locative complementation. The paper explores monolingual and bilingual data from Yucatecan Spanish to discuss the question whether the determiner-less and bare que relative complementizers in our data constitute a historic remnant or a dialectal recast, possibly (but not necessarily) due to language contact. Although our pilot study may not answer these far-reaching questions, it does reveal two separate, but intertwined developments: (i) a generally increased rate of bare que relative complementation, across both monolingual speakers of Spanish and Spanish Maya bilinguals, compared to other Spanish varieties, and (ii) a preference for donde at the cost of other locative complementizer constructions in the bilingual group. Our analysis thus reveals intriguing differences between the complementizer preferences of monolingual and bilingual speakers, suggesting that different variational patterns caused by different (socio-)linguistic factors can co-develop in parallel in one and the [same] region. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Philosophische Reihe - 181 KW - relative complementation KW - variability KW - language contact KW - diachrony KW - Yucatecan Spanish Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-584375 SN - 1866-8380 ER - TY - THES A1 - Pregla, Dorothea T1 - Variability in sentence processing performance in German people with aphasia and unimpaired German native speakers T1 - Variabilität in der Satzverarbeitungsleistung von deutschsprachigen Personen mit und ohne Aphasie N2 - Individuals with aphasia vary in the speed and accuracy they perform sentence comprehension tasks. Previous results indicate that the performance patterns of individuals with aphasia vary between tasks (e.g., Caplan, DeDe, & Michaud, 2006; Caplan, Michaud, & Hufford, 2013a). Similarly, it has been found that the comprehension performance of individuals with aphasia varies between homogeneous test sentences within and between sessions (e.g., McNeil, Hageman, & Matthews, 2005). These studies ascribed the variability in the performance of individuals with aphasia to random noise. This conclusion would be in line with an influential theory on sentence comprehension in aphasia, the resource reduction hypothesis (Caplan, 2012). However, previous studies did not directly compare variability in language-impaired and language-unimpaired adults. Thus, it is still unclear how the variability in sentence comprehension differs between individuals with and without aphasia. Furthermore, the previous studies were exclusively carried out in English. Therefore, the findings on variability in sentence processing in English still need to be replicated in a different language. This dissertation aims to give a systematic overview of the patterns of variability in sentence comprehension performance in aphasia in German and, based on this overview, to put the resource reduction hypothesis to the test. In order to reach the first aim, variability was considered on three different dimensions (persons, measures, and occasions) following the classification by Hultsch, Strauss, Hunter, and MacDonald (2011). At the dimension of persons, the thesis compared the performance of individuals with aphasia and language-unimpaired adults. At the dimension of measures, this work explored the performance across different sentence comprehension tasks (object manipulation, sentence-picture matching). Finally, at the dimension of occasions, this work compared the performance in each task between two test sessions. Several methods were combined to study variability to gain a large and diverse database. In addition to the offline comprehension tasks, the self-paced-listening paradigm and the visual world eye-tracking paradigm were used in this work. The findings are in line with the previous results. As in the previous studies, variability in sentence comprehension in individuals with aphasia emerged between test sessions and between tasks. Additionally, it was possible to characterize the variability further using hierarchical Bayesian models. For individuals with aphasia, it was shown that both between-task and between-session variability are unsystematic. In contrast to that, language-unimpaired individuals exhibited systematic differences between measures and between sessions. However, these systematic differences occurred only in the offline tasks. Hence, variability in sentence comprehension differed between language-impaired and language-unimpaired adults, and this difference could be narrowed down to the offline measures. Based on this overview of the patterns of variability, the resource reduction hypothesis was evaluated. According to the hypothesis, the variability in the performance of individuals with aphasia can be ascribed to random fluctuations in the resources available for sentence processing. Given that the performance of the individuals with aphasia varied unsystematically, the results support the resource reduction hypothesis. Furthermore, the thesis proposes that the differences in variability between language-impaired and language-unimpaired adults can also be explained by the resource reduction hypothesis. More specifically, it is suggested that the systematic changes in the performance of language-unimpaired adults are due to decreasing fluctuations in available processing resources. In parallel, the unsystematic variability in the performance of individuals with aphasia could be due to constant fluctuations in available processing resources. In conclusion, the systematic investigation of variability contributes to a better understanding of language processing in aphasia and thus enriches aphasia research. N2 - Personen mit Aphasie unterscheiden sich in der Geschwindigkeit und Genauigkeit, mit der sie Satzverständnisaufgaben lösen. Ergebnisse früherer Studien weisen darauf hin, dass die Leistungsmuster von Personen mit Aphasie zwischen verschiedenen Aufgaben variieren (z.B. Caplan, DeDe & Michaud, 2006; Caplan, Michaud & Hufford, 2013a). In ähnlicher Weise wurde festgestellt, dass die Verständnisleistung von Personen mit Aphasie zwischen ähnlich komplexen Testsätzen innerhalb und zwischen Sitzungen variiert (z.B. McNeil, Hageman & Matthews, 2005). In diesen Studien wurde die Variabilität in der Leistung von Personen mit Aphasie auf bloßen Zufall durch Rauschen in den Daten zurückgeführt. Diese Schlussfolgerung steht im Einklang mit einer einflussreichen Theorie zum Satzverständnis bei Aphasie, der resource reduction hypothesis (Caplan, 2012). In früheren Studien wurde die Variabilität bei Personen mit und ohne Aphasie jedoch nicht direkt verglichen. Daher ist noch unklar, wie sich die Variabilität im Satzverständnis zwischen Personen mit und ohne Aphasie unterscheidet. Außerdem wurden die bisherigen Studien ausschließlich im Englischen durchgeführt. Eine Replikation der Ergebnisse in einer anderen Sprache steht bisher noch aus. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, einen systematischen Überblick über die Variabilitätsmuster in der Satzverständnisleistung bei Aphasie im Deutschen zu geben und darauf aufbauend die resource reduction hypothesis zu überprüfen. Für das erste Ziel wurde die Variabilität in Anlehnung an die Klassifikation von Hultsch, Strauss, Hunter und MacDonald (2011) auf drei verschiedenen Ebenen (Personen, Maße und Messzeitpunkte) untersucht. Auf der Ebene der Personen wurden die Leistungen von Personen mit und ohne Aphasie miteinander verglichen. Auf der Ebene der Maße wurde die Leistung beider Versuchspersonengruppen über verschiedene Satzverständninsaufgaben hinweg untersucht (Objektmanipulierung, Satz-Bild-Zuordnung). Auf der Ebene der Messzeitpunkte wurden die Leistungen in jeder Aufgabe zwischen zwei Testsitzungen verglichen. Um eine große und vielfältige Datenbasis zu erhalten, wurden mehrere Methoden zur Untersuchung der Variabilität kombiniert. So wurden zusätzlich zu den Offline-Verständnisaufgaben in dieser Arbeit self-paced-listening (selbstgesteuertes Hören) und visual world eye-tracking (Blickbewegungsmessung beim Betrachten von Bildern) verwendet. Die Ergebnisse stimmen mit den bisherigen Befunden überein. Wie in den vorangegangenen Studien trat Variabilität im Satzverständnis bei Personen mit Aphasie zwischen den Testsitzungen und zwischen den Aufgaben auf. Darüber hinaus wurde die Variabilität mittels hierarchischer Bayesianischer Modelle weiter charakterisiert. Für Personen mit Aphasie war sowohl die Variabilität zwischen den Aufgaben als auch zwischen den Sitzungen unsystematisch. Im Gegensatz dazu zeigten sich bei Personen ohne Aphasie systematische Unterschiede zwischen den Aufgaben und zwischen den Sitzungen. Diese systematischen Unterschiede traten jedoch nur bei den Offline-Verständnisaufgaben auf. Die Variabilität im Satzverständnis unterscheidet sich also zwischen Personen mit und ohne Aphasie in der Offline-Verständnisleistung. Auf der Grundlage dieses Überblicks über die Variabilitätsmuster wurde die resource reduction hypothesis evaluiert. Laut dieser Hypothese kann die Variabilität in der Leistung von Personen mit Aphasie auf zufällige Schwankungen in den verfügbaren Satzverarbeitungsressourcen zurückgeführt werden. Da die Leistung der Personen mit Aphasie unsystematisch variiert, stimmen die Ergebnisse mit der resource reduction hypothesis überein. Zusätzlich lassen sich auch die Unterschiede in der Variabilität zwischen Personen mit und ohne Aphasie durch die resource reduction hypothesis erklären. Die systematischen Veränderungen im Satzverständnis bei Personen ohne Aphasie werden auf eine Abnahme der Fluktuationen in den Verarbeitungsressourcen zurückgeführt. Parallel dazu könnte die unsystematische Variabilität in der Leistung von Personen mit Aphasie auf konstante Schwankungen der verfügbaren Verarbeitungsressourcen zurückgeführt werden. Zusammenfassend lässt sich sagen, dass die systematische Untersuchung der Variabilität zu einem besseren Verständnis der Sprachverarbeitung bei Aphasie beiträgt und somit die Aphasieforschung bereichert. KW - aphasia KW - sentence comprehension KW - variability KW - resource reduction KW - Aphasie KW - Satzverständnis KW - Variabilität KW - Reduzierte Ressourcen Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-614201 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Cohen, Abby A1 - Campisano, Christopher A1 - Arrowsmith, J. Ramon A1 - Asrat, Asfawossen A1 - Behrensmeyer, A. K. A1 - Deino, A. A1 - Feibel, C. A1 - Hill, A. A1 - Johnson, R. A1 - Kingston, J. A1 - Lamb, Henry F. A1 - Lowenstein, T. A1 - Noren, A. A1 - Olago, D. A1 - Owen, Richard Bernhart A1 - Potts, R. A1 - Reed, Kate A1 - Renaut, R. A1 - Schäbitz, F. A1 - Tiercelin, J.-J. A1 - Trauth, Martin H. A1 - Wynn, J. A1 - Ivory, S. A1 - Brady, K. A1 - O’Grady, R. A1 - Rodysill, J. A1 - Githiri, J. A1 - Russell, Joellen A1 - Foerster, Verena A1 - Dommain, René A1 - Rucina, J. S. A1 - Deocampo, D. A1 - Russell, J. A1 - Billingsley, A. A1 - Beck, C. A1 - Dorenbeck, G. A1 - Dullo, L. A1 - Feary, D. A1 - Garello, D. A1 - Gromig, R. A1 - Johnson, T. A1 - Junginger, Annett A1 - Karanja, M. A1 - Kimburi, E. A1 - Mbuthia, A. A1 - McCartney, Tannis A1 - McNulty, E. A1 - Muiruri, V. A1 - Nambiro, E. A1 - Negash, E. W. A1 - Njagi, D. A1 - Wilson, J. N. A1 - Rabideaux, N. A1 - Raub, Timothy A1 - Sier, Mark Jan A1 - Smith, P. A1 - Urban, J. A1 - Warren, M. A1 - Yadeta, M. A1 - Yost, Chad A1 - Zinaye, B. T1 - The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project BT - inferring the environmental context of human evolution from eastern African rift lake deposits T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The role that climate and environmental history may have played in influencing human evolution has been the focus of considerable interest and controversy among paleoanthropologists for decades. Prior attempts to understand the environmental history side of this equation have centered around the study of outcrop sediments and fossils adjacent to where fossil hominins (ancestors or close relatives of modern humans) are found, or from the study of deep sea drill cores. However, outcrop sediments are often highly weathered and thus are unsuitable for some types of paleoclimatic records, and deep sea core records come from long distances away from the actual fossil and stone tool remains. The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) was developed to address these issues. The project has focused its efforts on the eastern African Rift Valley, where much of the evidence for early hominins has been recovered. We have collected about 2 km of sediment drill core from six basins in Kenya and Ethiopia, in lake deposits immediately adjacent to important fossil hominin and archaeological sites. Collectively these cores cover in time many of the key transitions and critical intervals in human evolutionary history over the last 4 Ma, such as the earliest stone tools, the origin of our own genus Homo, and the earliest anatomically modern Homo sapiens. Here we document the initial field, physical property, and core description results of the 2012-2014 HSPDP coring campaign. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 611 KW - Turkana-Basin KW - Adar formation KW - climate-change KW - olorgesailie formation KW - Southern Ethiopia KW - global climate KW - Kenya Rift KW - Pleistocene KW - variability KW - patterns Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412498 IS - 611 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Dallmeyer, Anne A1 - Claussen, M. A1 - Fischer, N. A1 - Haberkorn, K. A1 - Wagner, S. A1 - Pfeiffer, M. A1 - Jin, L. A1 - Khon, Vyacheslav A1 - Wang, Y. A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene BT - comparison of different transient climate model simulations T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i. e. onset, peak and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in centennial rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. Rather they indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 587 KW - summer monsoon KW - global monsoon KW - indian monsoon KW - high-resolution KW - cave records KW - variability KW - precipitation KW - circulation KW - insolation KW - rainfall Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409727 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 587 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Seibert, Mathias A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Apel, Heiko T1 - Seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Limpopo Basin BT - a comparison of statistical methods T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The Limpopo Basin in southern Africa is prone to droughts which affect the livelihood of millions of people in South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Seasonal drought early warning is thus vital for the whole region. In this study, the predictability of hydrological droughts during the main runoff period from December to May is assessed using statistical approaches. Three methods (multiple linear models, artificial neural networks, random forest regression trees) are compared in terms of their ability to forecast streamflow with up to 12 months of lead time. The following four main findings result from the study. 1. There are stations in the basin at which standardised streamflow is predictable with lead times up to 12 months. The results show high inter-station differences of forecast skill but reach a coefficient of determination as high as 0.73 (cross validated). 2. A large range of potential predictors is considered in this study, comprising well-established climate indices, customised teleconnection indices derived from sea surface temperatures and antecedent streamflow as a proxy of catchment conditions. El Nino and customised indices, representing sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, prove to be important teleconnection predictors for the region. Antecedent streamflow is a strong predictor in small catchments (with median 42% explained variance), whereas teleconnections exert a stronger influence in large catchments. 3. Multiple linear models show the best forecast skill in this study and the greatest robustness compared to artificial neural networks and random forest regression trees, despite their capabilities to represent nonlinear relationships. 4. Employed in early warning, the models can be used to forecast a specific drought level. Even if the coefficient of determination is low, the forecast models have a skill better than a climatological forecast, which is shown by analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROCs). Seasonal statistical forecasts in the Limpopo show promising results, and thus it is recommended to employ them as complementary to existing forecasts in order to strengthen preparedness for droughts. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 626 KW - sea-surface temperature KW - southern Africa KW - neural-network KW - summer rainfall KW - Atlantic-Ocean KW - river-basin KW - predictability KW - variability KW - prediction KW - climate Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418442 IS - 626 SP - 1611 EP - 1629 ER - TY - GEN A1 - De Souza Silveira, Raul A1 - Carlsohn, Anja A1 - Langen, Georg A1 - Mayer, Frank A1 - Scharhag-Rosenberger, Friederike T1 - Reliability and day-to-day variability of peak fat oxidation during treadmill ergometry T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Background: Exercising at intensities where fat oxidation rates are high has been shown to induce metabolic benefits in recreational and health-oriented sportsmen. The exercise intensity (Fat peak ) eliciting peak fat oxidation rates is therefore of particular interest when aiming to prescribe exercise for the purpose of fat oxidation and related metabolic effects. Although running and walking are feasible and popular among the target population, no reliable protocols are available to assess Fat peak as well as its actual velocity (V PFO ) during treadmill ergometry. Our purpose was therefore, to assess the reliability and day-to-day variability of V PFO and Fat peak during treadmill ergometry running. Methods: Sixteen recreational athletes (f = 7, m = 9; 25 ± 3 y; 1.76 ± 0.09 m; 68.3 ± 13.7 kg; 23.1 ± 2.9 kg/m 2 ) performed 2 different running protocols on 3 different days with standardized nutrition the day before testing. At day 1, peak oxygen uptake (VO 2peak ) and the velocities at the aerobic threshold (V LT ) and respiratory exchange ratio (RER) of 1.00 (V RER ) were assessed. At days 2 and 3, subjects ran an identical submaximal incremental test (Fat-peak test) composed of a 10 min warm-up (70 % V LT ) followed by 5 stages of 6 min with equal increments (stage 1 = V LT , stage 5 = V RER ). Breath-by-breath gas exchange data was measured continuously and used to determine fat oxidation rates. A third order polynomial function was used to identify V PFO and subsequently Fat peak . The reproducibility and variability of variables was verified with an int raclass correlation coef ficient (ICC), Pearson ’ s correlation coefficient, coefficient of variation (CV) an d the mean differences (bias) ± 95 % limits of agreement (LoA). Results: ICC, Pearson ’ s correlation and CV for V PFO and Fat peak were 0.98, 0.97, 5.0 %; and 0.90, 0.81, 7.0 %, respectively. Bias ± 95 % LoA was − 0.3 ± 0.9 km/h for V PFO and − 2±8%ofVO 2peak for Fat peak. Conclusion: In summary, relative and absolute reliability indicators for V PFO and Fat peak were found to be excellent. The observed LoA may now serve as a basis for future training prescriptions, although fat oxidation rates at prolonged exercise bouts at this intensity still need to be investigated. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe - 423 KW - peak fat oxidation KW - reliability KW - variability KW - running KW - treadmill ergometry Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407334 IS - 423 ER - TY - THES A1 - Schaber, Jörg T1 - Phenology in Germany in the 20th century : methods, analyses and models N2 - Die Länge der Vegetationsperiode (VP) spielt eine zentrale Rolle für die interannuelle Variation der Kohlenstoffspeicherung terrestrischer Ökosysteme. Die Analyse von Beobachtungsdaten hat gezeigt, dass sich die VP in den letzten Jahrzehnten in den nördlichen Breiten verlängert hat. Dieses Phänomen wurde oft im Zusammenhang mit der globalen Erwärmung diskutiert, da die Phänologie von der Temperatur beeinflusst wird. Die Analyse der Pflanzenphänologie in Süddeutschland im 20. Jahrhundert zeigte: - Die starke Verfrühung der Frühjahrsphasen in dem Jahrzehnt vor 1999 war kein singuläres Ereignis im 20. Jahrhundert. Schon in früheren Dekaden gab es ähnliche Trends. Es konnten Perioden mit unterschiedlichem Trendverhalten identifiziert werden. - Es gab deutliche Unterschiede in den Trends von frühen und späten Frühjahrsphasen. Die frühen Frühjahrsphasen haben sich stetig verfrüht, mit deutlicher Verfrühung zwischen 1931 und 1948, moderater Verfrühung zwischen 1948 und 1984 und starker Verfrühung zwischen 1984 und 1999. Die späten Frühjahrsphasen hingegen, wechselten ihr Trendverhalten in diesen Perioden von einer Verfrühung zu einer deutlichen Verspätung wieder zu einer starken Verfrühung. Dieser Unterschied in der Trendentwicklung zwischen frühen und späten Frühjahrsphasen konnte auch für ganz Deutschland in den Perioden 1951 bis 1984 und 1984 bis 1999 beobachtet werden. Der bestimmende Einfluss der Temperatur auf die Frühjahrsphasen und ihr modifizierender Einfluss auf die Herbstphasen konnte bestätigt werden. Es zeigt sich jedoch, dass - die Phänologie bestimmende Funktionen der Temperatur nicht mit einem globalen jährlichen CO2 Signal korreliert waren, welches als Index für die globale Erwärmung verwendet wurde - ein Index für grossräumige regionale Zirkulationsmuster (NAO-Index) nur zu einem kleinen Teil die beobachtete phänologischen Variabilität erklären konnte. Das beobachtete unterschiedliche Trendverhalten zwischen frühen und späten Frühjahrsphasen konnte auf die unterschiedliche Entwicklung von März- und Apriltemperaturen zurückgeführt werden. Während sich die Märztemperaturen im Laufe des 20. Jahrhunderts mit einer zunehmenden Variabilität in den letzten 50 Jahren stetig erhöht haben, haben sich die Apriltemperaturen zwischen dem Ende der 1940er und Mitte der 1980er merklich abgekühlt und dann wieder deutlich erwärmt. Es wurde geschlussfolgert, dass die Verfrühungen in der Frühjahrsphänologie in den letzten Dekaden Teile multi-dekadischer Fluktuationen sind, welche sich nach Spezies und relevanter saisonaler Temperatur unterscheiden. Aufgrund dieser Fluktuationen konnte kein Zusammenhang mit einem globalen Erwärmungsignal gefunden werden. Im Durchschnitt haben sich alle betrachteten Frühjahrsphasen zwischen 1951 und 1999 in Naturräumen in Deutschland zwischen 5 und 20 Tagen verfrüht. Ein starker Unterschied in der Verfrühung zwischen frühen und späten Frühjahrsphasen liegt an deren erwähntem unterschiedlichen Verhalten. Die Blattverfärbung hat sich zwischen 1951 und 1999 für alle Spezies verspätet, aber nach 1984 im Durchschnitt verfrüht. Die VP hat sich in Deutschland zwischen 1951 und 1999 um ca. 10 Tage verlängert. Es ist hauptsächlich die Änderung in den Frühjahrphasen, die zu einer Änderung in der potentiell absorbierten Strahlung (PAS) führt. Darüber hinaus sind es die späten Frühjahrsphasen, die pro Tag Verfrühung stärker profitieren, da die zusätzlichen Tage länger undwärmer sind als dies für die frühen Phasen der Fall ist. Um die relative Änderung in PAS im Vergleich der Spezies abzuschätzen, müssen allerdings auch die Veränderungen in den Herbstphasen berücksichtigt werden. Der deutliche Unterschied zwischen frühen und späten Frühjahrsphasen konnte durch die Anwendung einer neuen Methode zur Konstruktion von Zeitreihen herausgearbeitet werden. Der neue methodische Ansatz erlaubte die Ableitung verlässlicher 100-jähriger Zeitreihen und die Konstruktion von lokalen kombinierten Zeitreihen, welche die Datenverfügbarkeit für die Modellentwicklung erhöhten. Ausser analysierten Protokollierungsfehlern wurden mikroklimatische, genetische und Beobachtereinflüsse als Quellen von Unsicherheit in phänologischen Daten identifiziert. Phänologischen Beobachtungen eines Ortes können schätzungsweise 24 Tage um das parametrische Mittel schwanken.Dies unterstützt die 30-Tage Regel für die Detektion von Ausreissern. Neue Phänologiemodelle, die den Blattaustrieb aus täglichen Temperaturreihen simulieren, wurden entwickelt. Diese Modelle basieren auf einfachen Interaktionen zwischen aktivierenden und hemmenden Substanzen, welche die Entwicklungsstadien einer Pflanze bestimmen. Im Allgemeinen konnten die neuen Modelle die Beobachtungsdaten besser simulieren als die klassischen Modelle. Weitere Hauptresultate waren: - Der Bias der klassischen Modelle, d.h. Überschätzung von frühen und Unterschätzung von späten Beobachtungen, konnte reduziert, aber nicht vollständig eliminiert werden. - Die besten Modellvarianten für verschiedene Spezies wiesen darauf hin, dass für die späten Frühjahrsphasen die Tageslänge eine wichtigere Rolle spielt als für die frühen Phasen. - Die Vernalisation spielte gegenüber den Temperaturen kurz vor dem Blattaustrieb nur eine untergeordnete Rolle. N2 - The length of the vegetation period (VP) plays a central role for the interannual variation of carbon fixation of terrestrial ecosystems. Observational data analysis has indicated that the length of the VP has increased in the last decades in the northern latitudes mainly due to an advancement of bud burst (BB). This phenomenon has been widely discussed in the context of Global Warming because phenology is correlated to temperatures. Analyzing the patterns of spring phenology over the last century in Southern Germany provided two main findings: - The strong advancement of spring phases especially in the decade before 1999 is not a singular event in the course of the 20th century. Similar trends were also observed in earlier decades. Distinct periods of varying trend behavior for important spring phases could be distinguished. - Marked differences in trend behavior between the early and late spring phases were detected. Early spring phases changed as regards the magnitude of their negative trends from strong negative trends between 1931 and 1948 to moderate negative trends between 1948 and 1984 and back to strong negative trends between 1984 and 1999. Late spring phases showed a different behavior. Negative trends between 1931 and 1948 are followed by marked positive trends between 1948 and 1984 and then strong negative trends between 1984 and 1999. This marked difference in trend development between early and late spring phases was also found all over Germany for the two periods 1951 to 1984 and 1984 to 1999. The dominating influence of temperature on spring phenology and its modifying effect on autumn phenology was confirmed in this thesis. However, - temperature functions determining spring phenology were not significantly correlated with a global annual CO2 signal which was taken as a proxy for a Global Warming pattern. - an index for large scale regional circulation patterns (NAO index) could only to a small part explain the observed phenological variability in spring. The observed different trend behavior of early and late spring phases is explained by the differing behavior of mean March and April temperatures. Mean March temperatures have increased on average over the 20th century accompanied by an increasing variation in the last 50 years. April temperatures, however, decreased between the end of the 1940s and the mid-1980s, followed by a marked warming after the mid-1980s. It can be concluded that the advancement of spring phenology in recent decades are part of multi-decadal fluctuations over the 20th century that vary with the species and the relevant seasonal temperatures. Because of these fluctuations a correlation with an observed Global Warming signal could not be found. On average all investigated spring phases advanced between 5 and 20 days between 1951 and 1999 for all Natural Regions in Germany. A marked difference be! tween late and early spring phases is due to the above mentioned differing behavior before and after the mid-1980s. Leaf coloring (LC) was delayed between 1951 and 1984 for all tree species. However, after 1984 LC was advanced. Length of the VP increased between 1951 and 1999 for all considered tree species by an average of ten days throughout Germany. It is predominately the change in spring phases which contributes to a change in the potentially absorbed radiation. Additionally, it is the late spring species that are relatively more favored by an advanced BB because they can additionally exploit longer days and higher temperatures per day advancement. To assess the relative change in potentially absorbed radiation among species, changes in both spring and autumn phenology have to be considered as well as where these changes are located in the year. For the detection of the marked difference between early and late spring phenology a new time series construction method was developed. This method allowed the derivation of reliable time series that spanned over 100 years and the construction of locally combined time series increasing the available data for model development. Apart from analyzed protocolling errors, microclimatic site influences, genetic variation and the observers were identified as sources of uncertainty of phenological observational data. It was concluded that 99% of all phenological observations at a certain site will vary within approximately 24 days around the parametric mean. This supports to the proposed 30-day rule to detect outliers. New phenology models that predict local BB from daily temperature time series were developed. These models were based on simple interactions between inhibitory and promotory agents that are assumed to control the developmental status of a plant. Apart from the fact that, in general, the new models fitted and predicted the observations better than classical models, the main modeling results were: - The bias of the classical models, i.e. overestimation of early observations and underestimation of late observations, could be reduced but not completely removed. - The different favored model structures for each species indicated that for the late spring phases photoperiod played a more dominant role than for early spring phases. - Chilling only plays a subordinate role for spring BB compared to temperatures directly preceding BB. KW - Phänologie KW - kombinierte Zeitreihen KW - Physiologie-basierte Modelle KW - Unsicherheit KW - Variabilität KW - Ausreisser KW - Trends KW - Naturräume KW - Trendwendepunkte KW - Fag KW - phenology KW - combined time series KW - physiology-based models KW - uncertainty KW - variability KW - outliers KW - trends KW - Natural Regions KW - trend turning points KW - Fagus syl Y1 - 2002 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-0000532 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Clason, Caroline C. A1 - Mair, D. W. F. A1 - Nienow, P. W. A1 - Bartholomew, I. D. A1 - Sole, Andrew A1 - Palmer, Steven A1 - Schwanghart, Wolfgang T1 - Modelling the transfer of supraglacial meltwater to the bed of Leverett Glacier, Southwest Greenland T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Meltwater delivered to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet is a driver of variable ice-motion through changes in effective pressure and enhanced basal lubrication. Ice surface velocities have been shown to respond rapidly both to meltwater production at the surface and to drainage of supraglacial lakes, suggesting efficient transfer of meltwater from the supraglacial to subglacial hydrological systems. Although considerable effort is currently being directed towards improved modelling of the controlling surface and basal processes, modelling the temporal and spatial evolution of the transfer of melt to the bed has received less attention. Here we present the results of spatially distributed modelling for prediction of moulins and lake drainages on the Leverett Glacier in Southwest Greenland. The model is run for the 2009 and 2010 ablation seasons, and for future increased melt scenarios. The temporal pattern of modelled lake drainages are qualitatively comparable with those documented from analyses of repeat satellite imagery. The modelled timings and locations of delivery of meltwater to the bed also match well with observed temporal and spatial patterns of ice surface speed-ups. This is particularly true for the lower catchment (< 1000 m a.s.l.) where both the model and observations indicate that the development of moulins is the main mechanism for the transfer of surface meltwater to the bed. At higher elevations (e.g. 1250-1500 m a.s.l.) the development and drainage of supraglacial lakes becomes increasingly important. At these higher elevations, the delay between modelled melt generation and subsequent delivery of melt to the bed matches the observed delay between the peak air temperatures and subsequent velocity speed-ups, while the instantaneous transfer of melt to the bed in a control simulation does not. Although both moulins and lake drainages are predicted to increase in number for future warmer climate scenarios, the lake drainages play an increasingly important role in both expanding the area over which melt accesses the bed and in enabling a greater proportion of surface melt to reach the bed. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 513 KW - meltice-sheet motion KW - seasonal evolution KW - West Greenland KW - subglacial drainage KW - melt KW - lake KW - variability KW - fracture KW - acceleration KW - lubrication Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409053 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 513 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Schaefer, Laura A1 - Bittmann, Frank T1 - Mechanotendography in Achillodynia shows reduced oscillation variability of pre-loaded Achilles tendon BT - a pilot study T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The present study focuses on an innovative approach in measuring the mechanical oscillations of pre-loaded Achilles tendon by using Mechanotendography (MTG) during application of a short yet powerful mechanical pressure impact. This was applied on the forefoot from the plantar side in direction of dorsiflexion, while the subject stood on the ball of the forefoot on one leg. Participants with Achilles tendinopathy (AT; n = 10) were compared to healthy controls (Con; n = 10). Five trials were performed on each side of the body. For evaluation, two intervals after the impulse began (0-100ms; 30-100ms) were cut from the MTG and pressure raw signals. The intrapersonal variability between the five trials in both intervals were evaluated using the arithmetic mean and coefficient of variation of the mean correlation (Spearman rank correlation) and the normalized averaged mean distances, respectively. The AT-group showed a significantly reduced variability in MTG compared to the Con-group (from p = 0.006 to p = 0.028 for different parameters). The 95% confidence intervals (CI) of MTG results were disjoint, whereas the 95% CIs of the pressure signals were similar (p = 0.192 to p = 0.601). We suggest from this work that the variability of mechanical tendon oscillations could be an indicative parameter of an altered Achilles tendon functionality. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe - 668 KW - Mechanotendography KW - mechanical tendinous oscillations KW - variability KW - impact on pre-activated Achilles tendon Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-483499 SN - 1866-8364 IS - 668 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Rottler, Erwin A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Bürger, Gerd A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Long-term changes in central European river discharge for 1869–2016 BT - Impact of changing snow covers, reservoir constructions and an intensified hydrological cycle T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Recent climatic changes have the potential to severely alter river runoff, particularly in snow-dominated river basins. Effects of changing snow covers superimpose with changes in precipitation and anthropogenic modifications of the watershed and river network. In the attempt to identify and disentangle long-term effects of different mechanisms, we employ a set of analytical tools to extract long-term changes in river runoff at high resolution. We combine quantile sampling with moving average trend statistics and empirical mode decomposition and apply these tools to discharge data recorded along rivers with nival, pluvial and mixed flow regimes as well as temperature and precipitation data covering the time frame 1869-2016. With a focus on central Europe, we analyse the long-term impact of snow cover and precipitation changes along with their interaction with reservoir constructions. Our results show that runoff seasonality of snow-dominated rivers decreases. Runoff increases in winter and spring, while discharge decreases in summer and at the beginning of autumn. We attribute this redistribution of annual flow mainly to reservoir constructions in the Alpine ridge. During the course of the last century, large fractions of the Alpine rivers were dammed to produce hydropower. In recent decades, runoff changes induced by reservoir constructions seem to overlap with changes in snow cover. We suggest that Alpine signals propagate downstream and affect runoff far outside the Alpine area in river segments with mixed flow regimes. Furthermore, our results hint at more (intense) rain-fall in recent decades. Detected increases in high discharge can be traced back to corresponding changes in precipitation. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1412 KW - empirical mode decomposition KW - atmospheric blocking KW - heavy precipitation KW - streamflow trends KW - climate-change KW - rhine basin KW - time-series KW - events KW - Switzerland KW - variability Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517763 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 4 ER -