TY  - JOUR
A1  - Salamat, Mona
A1  - Zare, Mehdi
A1  - Holschneider, Matthias
A1  - Zöller, Gert
T1  - Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran
JF  - Pure and applied geophysics
N2  - The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max) has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m(max) is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event, the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4): 1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m(max) is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating mmax from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.
KW  - Maximum magnitude of earthquake
KW  - Level of confidence
KW  - Confidence interval
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-016-1418-5
SN  - 0033-4553
SN  - 1420-9136
VL  - 174
SP  - 763
EP  - 777
PB  - Springer
CY  - Basel
ER  -