TY  - JOUR
A1  - Luderer, Gunnar
A1  - Madeddu, Silvia
A1  - Merfort, Leon
A1  - Ueckerdt, Falko
A1  - Pehl, Michaja
A1  - Pietzcker, Robert C.
A1  - Rottoli, Marianna
A1  - Schreyer, Felix
A1  - Bauer, Nico
A1  - Baumstark, Lavinia
A1  - Bertram, Christoph
A1  - Dirnaichner, Alois
A1  - Humpenöder, Florian
A1  - Levesque, Antoine
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Rodrigues, Renato
A1  - Strefler, Jessica
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
T1  - Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios
JF  - Nature energy
N2  - Cost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power and battery storage has been faster than previously anticipated. In the future, climate policy to limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C will make carbon-based fuels increasingly scarce and expensive. Here we show that further progress in solar- and wind-power technology along with carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In combination with demand-side innovation, for instance in e-mobility and heat pumps, this is likely to induce a fundamental transformation of energy systems towards a dominance of electricity-based end uses. In a 1.5 °C scenario with limited availability of bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times the current levels and substantially higher than in previous climate policy scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The lower production of bioenergy in our high-electrification scenarios markedly reduces energy-related land and water requirements.
KW  - climate-change mitigation
KW  - energy modelling
KW  - renewable energy
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z
SN  - 2058-7546
N1  - Corrigendum: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01000-1
VL  - 7
IS  - 1
SP  - 32
EP  - 42
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
CY  - London
ER  -