45412
2016
2016
eng
3982
3990
9
43
article
American Geophysical Union
Washington
1
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Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon: Prediction of onset and
withdrawal
Forecasting the onset and withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon is crucial for the life and prosperity of more than one billion inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent. However, accurate prediction of monsoon timing remains a challenge, despite numerous efforts. Here we present a method for prediction of monsoon timing based on a critical transition precursor. We identify geographic regions-tipping elements of the monsoon-and use them as observation locations for predicting onset and withdrawal dates. Unlike most predictability methods, our approach does not rely on precipitation analysis but on air temperature and relative humidity, which are well represented both in models and observations. The proposed method allows to predict onset 2 weeks earlier and withdrawal dates 1.5 months earlier than existing methods. In addition, it enables to correctly forecast monsoon duration for some anomalous years, often associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation.
Geophysical research letters
10.1002/2016GL068392
0094-8276
1944-8007
wos2016:2019
WOS:000378338800045
Stolbova, V (reprint author), Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany.; Stolbova, V (reprint author), Humboldt Univ, Dept Phys, Invalidenstr 110, Berlin, Germany.; Stolbova, V (reprint author), Russian Acad Sci, Inst Appl Phys, Nizhnii Novgorod, Russia.; Stolbova, V (reprint author), Univ Zurich, Dept Banking & Finance, Zurich, Switzerland., veronika.stolbova@pik-potsdam.de
Russian Federation [14.Z50.31.0033]; Institute of Applied Physics of RAS; Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) [16-07-01186]
importub
2020-03-22T18:19:02+00:00
filename=package.tar
11c934e493c76d593ebd4a0e22ac675f
Veronika Stolbova
Elena Surovyatkina
Bodo Bookhagen
Jürgen Kurths
Institut für Physik und Astronomie
Institut für Geowissenschaften
Referiert
Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften
Import
19942
2000
2000
eng
article
1
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ENSO Impact on landslide generation in northwestern Argentina
Climatic changes are of major importance in landslide generation in the Argentine Andes. Increased humidity as a potential influential factor was inferred from the temporal clustering of landslide deposits during a period of significantly wetter climate, 30,000 years ago. A change in seasonality was tested by comparing past (inferred from annual-layered lake deposits, 30,000 years old) and modern (present-day observations) precipitation changes. Quantitative analysis of cross recurrence plots were developed to compare the influence of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on present and past rainfall variations. This analysis has shown the stronger influence of NE trades in the location of landslide deposits in the intra-andean basin and valleys, what caused a higher contrast between summer and winter rainfall and an increasing of precipitation in La Nina years. This is believed to reduce thresholds for landslide generation in the arid to semiarid intra-andean basins and valleys.
1029-7006
allegro:1991-2014
10093264
Geophysical research abstracts. - ISSN 1029-7006. - ISSN 1607-7962. - 2 (2000)
Norbert Marwan
Udo Schwarz
Jürgen Kurths
Manfred Strecker
Institut für Physik und Astronomie
Institut für Geowissenschaften
Institut für Physik