49782
2019
2019
eng
14
22
article
Elsevier
Amsterdam
1
2019-02-16
2019-02-16
--
Climate change impact on regional floods in the Carpathian region
Study region: Tisza and Prut catchments, originating on the slopes of the Carpathian mountains. Study focus: The study reported here investigates (i) climate change impacts on flood risk in the region, and (ii) uncertainty related to hydrological modelling, downscaling techniques and climate projections. The climate projections used in the study were derived from five GCMs, downscaled either dynamically with RCMs or with the statistical downscaling model XDS. The resulting climate change scenarios were applied to drive the eco-hydrological model SWIM, which was calibrated and validated for the catchments in advance using observed climate and hydrological data. The changes in the 30-year flood hazards and 98 and 95 percentiles of discharge were evaluated for the far future period (2071-2100) in comparison with the reference period (1981-2010). New hydrological insights for the region: The majority of model outputs under RCP 4.5 show a small to strong increase of the 30-year flood level in the Tisza ranging from 4.5% to 62%, and moderate increase in the Prut ranging from 11% to 22%. The impact results under RCP 8.5 are more uncertain with changes in both directions due to high uncertainties in GCM-RCM climate projections, downscaling methods and the low density of available climate stations.
Journal of hydrology : Regional studies
10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.01.002
2214-5818
wos:2019
100590
WOS:000469313400002
Didovets, I (reprint author), Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Telegraphenberg A 31, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany., didovets@uni-potsdam.de
2021-03-05T13:54:41+00:00
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Didovets, Iulii
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CC-BY-NC - Namensnennung, nicht kommerziell 4.0 International
Iulii Didovets
Valentina Krysanova
Gerd Bürger
Sergiy Snizhko
Vira Balabukh
Axel Bronstert
eng
uncontrolled
Climate change impact
eng
uncontrolled
Floods
eng
uncontrolled
Hydrological modelling
eng
uncontrolled
SWIM
eng
uncontrolled
Tisza
eng
uncontrolled
Prut
eng
uncontrolled
Carpathians
eng
uncontrolled
Ukraine
Geowissenschaften
Referiert
Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie
Import
Gold Open-Access
DOAJ gelistet
39494
2017
2017
eng
18
3
9
article
MDPI
Basel
1
--
2017-03-10
--
Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Three Representative Ukrainian Catchments Using Eco-Hydrological Modelling
The information about climate change impact on river discharge is vitally important for planning adaptation measures. The future changes can affect different water-related sectors. The main goal of this study was to investigate the potential water resource changes in Ukraine, focusing on three mesoscale river catchments (Teteriv, UpperWestern Bug, and Samara) characteristic for different geographical zones. The catchment scale watershed model—Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM)—was setup, calibrated, and validated for the three catchments under consideration. A set of seven GCM-RCM (General Circulation Model-Regional Climate Model) coupled climate scenarios corresponding to RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological catchment model. The climate projections, used in the study, were considered as three combinations of low, intermediate, and high end scenarios. Our results indicate the shifts in the seasonal distribution of runoff in all three catchments. The spring high flow occurs earlier as a result of temperature increases and earlier snowmelt. The fairly robust trend is an increase in river discharge in the winter season, and most of the scenarios show a potential decrease in river discharge in the spring.
Water
10.3390/w9030204
2073-4441
Universität Potsdam, Publikationsfonds
PA 2017_11
1205.07
online registration
204
<a href="http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-394956">Zweitveröffentlichung in der Schriftenreihe Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe ; 323</a>
CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
Iulii Didovets
Anastasia Lobanova
Axel Bronstert
Sergiy Snizhko
Cathrine Fox Maule
Valentina Krysanova
eng
uncontrolled
Ukraine
eng
uncontrolled
climate change impact
eng
uncontrolled
river discharge
eng
uncontrolled
Samara
eng
uncontrolled
Teteriv
eng
uncontrolled
Western Bug
eng
uncontrolled
runoff
eng
uncontrolled
SWIM
eng
uncontrolled
IMPRESSIONS
Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik
Institut für Geowissenschaften
Referiert
Publikationsfonds der Universität Potsdam
Open Access
Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften
Universität Potsdam
39495
2017
2017
eng
18
postprint
1
--
2017-03-10
--
Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Three Representative Ukrainian Catchments Using Eco-Hydrological Modelling
The information about climate change impact on river discharge is vitally important for planning adaptation measures. The future changes can affect different water-related sectors. The main goal of this study was to investigate the potential water resource changes in Ukraine, focusing on three mesoscale river catchments (Teteriv, UpperWestern Bug, and Samara) characteristic for different geographical zones. The catchment scale watershed model—Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM)—was setup, calibrated, and validated for the three catchments under consideration. A set of seven GCM-RCM (General Circulation Model-Regional Climate Model) coupled climate scenarios corresponding to RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological catchment model. The climate projections, used in the study, were considered as three combinations of low, intermediate, and high end scenarios. Our results indicate the shifts in the seasonal distribution of runoff in all three catchments. The spring high flow occurs earlier as a result of temperature increases and earlier snowmelt. The fairly robust trend is an increase in river discharge in the winter season, and most of the scenarios show a potential decrease in river discharge in the spring.
urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-394956
online registration
Universität Potsdam, Publikationsfonds
1008,77
PA 2017_11
Water (2017) Nr. 9:204. - DOI: 10.3390/w9030204
<a href="http://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/39494">Bibliographieeintrag der Originalveröffentlichung/Quelle</a>
CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
Iulii Didovets
Anastasia Lobanova
Axel Bronstert
Sergiy Snizhko
Cathrine Fox Maule
Valentina Krysanova
Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
323
eng
uncontrolled
Ukraine
eng
uncontrolled
climate change impact
eng
uncontrolled
river discharge
eng
uncontrolled
Samara
eng
uncontrolled
Teteriv
eng
uncontrolled
Western Bug
eng
uncontrolled
runoff
eng
uncontrolled
SWIM
eng
uncontrolled
IMPRESSIONS
Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik
open_access
Institut für Geowissenschaften
Referiert
Open Access
Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften
Universität Potsdam
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/files/39495/pmnr323_online.pdf