51225
2018
2018
eng
315
328
14
109
article
Elsevier
Oxford
1
2018-08-29
--
--
Coupling land-use change and hydrologic models for quantification of catchment ecosystem services
Representation of land-use and hydrologic interactions in respective models has traditionally been problematic. The use of static land-use in most hydrologic models or that of the use of simple hydrologic proxies in land-use change models call for more integrated approaches. The objective of this study is to assess whether dynamic feedback between land-use change and hydrology can (1) improve model performances, and/or (2) produce a more realistic quantification of ecosystem services. To test this, we coupled a land-use change model and a hydrologic mode. First, the land-use change and the hydrologic models were separately developed and calibrated. Then, the two models were dynamically coupled to exchange data at yearly time-steps. The approach is applied to a catchment in South Africa. Performance of coupled models when compared to the uncoupled models were marginal, but the coupled models excelled at the quantification of catchment ecosystem services more robustly.
Environmental modelling & software with environment data news
10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.08.029
1364-8152
1873-6726
wos:2018
WOS:000446240500023
Yalew, SG (reprint author), IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands., s.g.yalew@uu.nl
2021-07-05T13:27:19+00:00
sword
importub
filename=package.tar
80e5224829a7c1a26816e5e025430aa5
false
true
S. G. Yalew
Tobias Pilz
C. Schweitzer
Stefan Liersch
J. van der Kwast
A. van Griensven
Marloes L. Mul
Chris Dickens
Pieter van der Zaag
eng
uncontrolled
Model coupling
eng
uncontrolled
Ecosystem services
eng
uncontrolled
Integrated modelling
eng
uncontrolled
Land and water
Geowissenschaften
Institut für Geowissenschaften
Referiert
Import
44578
2018
2020
eng
36
930
postprint
1
2020-06-02
2020-06-02
--
Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management
Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.
Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
evidence from four case studies in Africa
10.25932/publishup-44578
urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-445784
1866-8372
Ecology and Society 23 (2018) 1, 5 DOI: 10.5751/ES-09728-230105
5
<a href="http://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/54550">Bibliographieeintrag der Originalveröffentlichung/Quelle</a>
CC-BY-NC - Namensnennung, nicht kommerziell 4.0 International
Julia Reinhardt
Stefan Liersch
Mohamed Arbi Abdeladhim
Mori Diallo
Chris Dickens
Samuel Fournet
Fred Fokko Hattermann
Clovis Kabaseke
Moses Muhumuza
Marloes L. Mul
Tobias Pilz
Ilona M. Otto
Ariane Walz
Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
930
eng
uncontrolled
Africa
eng
uncontrolled
global and regional change
eng
uncontrolled
integrated assessments
eng
uncontrolled
participatory research
eng
uncontrolled
sustainability science
Biowissenschaften; Biologie
open_access
Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät
Referiert
Open Access
Universität Potsdam
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/files/44578/pmnr930.pdf
54550
2018
2018
eng
34
1
23
article
Resilience Alliance
Wolfville
1
--
--
--
Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management
Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.
Ecology and society : a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability
evidence from four case studies in Africa
10.5751/ES-09728-230105
1708-3087
wos:2018
5
WOS:000432464800004
Reinhardt, J (reprint author), Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany.
European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7)European Union (EU) EarthDoc Program
2022-03-30T10:37:37+00:00
sword
importub
filename=package.tar
987ee54c6f1d57b85e13fc3dc38dec76
<a href="https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-44578">Zweitveröffentlichung in der Schriftenreihe Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe ; 930 </a>
false
true
CC-BY-NC - Namensnennung, nicht kommerziell 4.0 International
Julia Reinhardt
Stefan Liersch
Mohamed Arbi Abdeladhim
Mori Diallo
Chris Dickens
Samuel Fournet
Fred Fokko Hattermann
Clovis Kabaseke
Moses Muhumuza
Marloes L. Mul
Tobias Pilz
Ilona M. Otto
Ariane Walz
eng
uncontrolled
Africa
eng
uncontrolled
global and regional change
eng
uncontrolled
integrated assessments
eng
uncontrolled
participatory research
eng
uncontrolled
sustainability science
Biowissenschaften; Biologie
Institut für Biochemie und Biologie
Referiert
Import
Gold Open-Access
DOAJ gelistet
38291
2014
2014
eng
1305
1321
17
4
18
article
Copernicus
Göttingen
1
--
--
--
Comparing impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large African river basins
This study aims to compare impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large representative African river basins: the Niger, the Upper Blue Nile, the Oubangui and the Limpopo. We set up the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) for all four basins individually. The validation of the models for four basins shows results from adequate to very good, depending on the quality and availability of input and calibration data.
For the climate impact assessment, we drive the model with outputs of five bias corrected Earth system models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. This climate input is put into the context of climate trends of the whole African continent and compared to a CMIP5 ensemble of 19 models in order to test their representativeness. Subsequently, we compare the trends in mean discharges, seasonality and hydrological extremes in the 21st century. The uncertainty of results for all basins is high. Still, climate change impact is clearly visible for mean discharges but also for extremes in high and low flows. The uncertainty of the projections is the lowest in the Upper Blue Nile, where an increase in streamflow is most likely. In the Niger and the Limpopo basins, the magnitude of trends in both directions is high and has a wide range of uncertainty. In the Oubangui, impacts are the least significant. Our results confirm partly the findings of previous continental impact analyses for Africa. However, contradictory to these studies we find a tendency for increased streamflows in three of the four basins (not for the Oubangui). Guided by these results, we argue for attention to the possible risks of increasing high flows in the face of the dominant water scarcity in Africa. In conclusion, the study shows that impact intercomparisons have added value to the adaptation discussion and may be used for setting up adaptation plans in the context of a holistic approach.
Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS
10.5194/hess-18-1305-2014
1027-5606
1607-7938
wos:2014
WOS:000335375300005
Aich, V (reprint author), Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany., aich@pik-potsdam.de
IMPACT2c project
Valentin Aich
Stefan Liersch
T. Vetter
S. Huang
J. Tecklenburg
P. Hoffmann
H. Koch
S. Fournet
Valentina Krysanova
N. Mueller
Fred Fokko Hattermann
Institut für Geowissenschaften
Referiert
Open Access
Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften
38842
2015
2015
eng
2796
2820
25
6
7
article
MDPI
Basel
1
--
--
--
Climate or Land Use?
This study intends to contribute to the ongoing discussion on whether land use and land cover changes (LULC) or climate trends have the major influence on the observed increase of flood magnitudes in the Sahel. A simulation-based approach is used for attributing the observed trends to the postulated drivers. For this purpose, the ecohydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) with a new, dynamic LULC module was set up for the Sahelian part of the Niger River until Niamey, including the main tributaries Sirba and Goroul. The model was driven with observed, reanalyzed climate and LULC data for the years 1950-2009. In order to quantify the shares of influence, one simulation was carried out with constant land cover as of 1950, and one including LULC. As quantitative measure, the gradients of the simulated trends were compared to the observed trend. The modeling studies showed that for the Sirba River only the simulation which included LULC was able to reproduce the observed trend. The simulation without LULC showed a positive trend for flood magnitudes, but underestimated the trend significantly. For the Goroul River and the local flood of the Niger River at Niamey, the simulations were only partly able to reproduce the observed trend. In conclusion, the new LULC module enabled some first quantitative insights into the relative influence of LULC and climatic changes. For the Sirba catchment, the results imply that LULC and climatic changes contribute in roughly equal shares to the observed increase in flooding. For the other parts of the subcatchment, the results are less clear but show, that climatic changes and LULC are drivers for the flood increase; however their shares cannot be quantified. Based on these modeling results, we argue for a two-pillar adaptation strategy to reduce current and future flood risk: Flood mitigation for reducing LULC-induced flood increase, and flood adaptation for a general reduction of flood vulnerability.
Water
Attribution of Changes in River Flooding in the Sahel Zone
10.3390/w7062796
2073-4441
wos:2015
WOS:000361034400002
Aich, V (reprint author), Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany., aich@pik-potsdam.de; liersch@pik-potsdam.de; vetter@pik-potsdam.de; jafet.andersson@smhi.se; eva.mueller@uni-potsdam.de; hattermann@pik-potsdam.de
IMPACT2C project
Valentin Aich
Stefan Liersch
Tobias Vetter
Jafet C. M. Andersson
Eva Nora Müller
Fred Fokko Hattermann
Institut für Geowissenschaften
Referiert
Open Access
Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften
40011
2017
2017
eng
25
postprint
1
--
2017-09-01
--
Climate or land use?
This study intends to contribute to the ongoing discussion on whether land use and land cover changes (LULC) or climate trends have the major influence on the observed increase of flood magnitudes in the Sahel. A simulation-based approach is used for attributing the observed trends to the postulated drivers. For this purpose, the ecohydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) with a new, dynamic LULC module was set up for the Sahelian part of the Niger River until Niamey, including the main tributaries Sirba and Goroul. The model was driven with observed, reanalyzed climate and LULC data for the years 1950–2009. In order to quantify the shares of influence, one simulation was carried out with constant land cover as of 1950, and one including LULC. As quantitative measure, the gradients of the simulated trends were compared to the observed trend. The modeling studies showed that for the Sirba River only the simulation which included LULC was able to reproduce the observed trend. The simulation without LULC showed a positive trend for flood magnitudes, but underestimated the trend significantly. For the Goroul River and the local flood of the Niger River at Niamey, the simulations were only partly able to reproduce the observed trend. In conclusion, the new LULC module enabled some first quantitative insights into the relative influence of LULC and climatic changes. For the Sirba catchment, the results imply that LULC and climatic changes contribute in roughly equal shares to the observed increase in flooding. For the other parts of the subcatchment, the results are less clear but show, that climatic changes and LULC are drivers for the flood increase; however their shares cannot be quantified. Based on these modeling results, we argue for a two-pillar adaptation strategy to reduce current and future flood risk: Flood mitigation for reducing LULC-induced flood increase, and flood adaptation for a general reduction of flood vulnerability.
Attribution of changes in river flooding in the Sahel Zone
urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400115
online registration
Water 7 (2015) Nr. 6, S. 2796-2820. - DOI: 10.3390/w7062796
CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
Valentin Aich
Stefan Liersch
Tobias Vetter
Jafet C. M. Andersson
Eva Nora Müller
Fred Fokko Hattermann
Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
345
eng
uncontrolled
simulation-based attribution
eng
uncontrolled
Sahel
eng
uncontrolled
Niger River
eng
uncontrolled
climate variability
eng
uncontrolled
hydrological modeling
eng
uncontrolled
flood mitigation
eng
uncontrolled
flood adaptation
Geowissenschaften
open_access
Institut für Geowissenschaften
Referiert
Open Access
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften
Universität Potsdam
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/files/40011/pmnr345_online.pdf
17843
2001
2001
deu
154 S.
6
book
Selbstverl. der Arbeitsgruppe Stoffdynamik in Geosystemen
Potsdam
1
--
--
--
Wo Wasser Weiden wachsen läßt : Witterungsbedingte Dynamik von Geosystemen der mongolischen Steppe
Stoffdynamik in Geosystemen
0949-4731
allegro:1991-2014
10092360
Wolfgang Krüger
Andreas Barsch
Stefan Liersch
Benjamin Blank
Institut für Geographie und Geoökologie
Institut für Geoökologie
Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie