41240
2016
2019
eng
18
559
postprint
1
2019-01-30
2019-01-30
--
Quantifying the effect of sea level rise and flood defence
In contrast to recent advances in projecting sea levels, estimations about the economic impact of sea level rise are vague. Nonetheless, they are of great importance for policy making with regard to adaptation and greenhouse-gas mitigation. Since the damage is mainly caused by extreme events, we propose a stochastic framework to estimate the monetary losses from coastal floods in a confined region. For this purpose, we follow a Peak-over-Threshold approach employing a Poisson point process and the Generalised Pareto Distribution. By considering the effect of sea level rise as well as potential adaptation scenarios on the involved parameters, we are able to study the development of the annual damage. An application to the city of Copenhagen shows that a doubling of losses can be expected from a mean sea level increase of only 11 cm. In general, we find that for varying parameters the expected losses can be well approximated by one of three analytical expressions depending on the extreme value parameters. These findings reveal the complex interplay of the involved parameters and allow conclusions of fundamental relevance. For instance, we show that the damage typically increases faster than the sea level rise itself. This in turn can be of great importance for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on the global scale. Our results are accompanied by an assessment of uncertainty, which reflects the stochastic nature of extreme events. While the absolute value of uncertainty about the flood damage increases with rising mean sea levels, we find that it decreases in relation to the expected damage.
Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
a point process perspective on coastal flood damage
10.25932/publishup-41240
urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412405
1866-8372
online registration
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 16 (2016), pp. 559–576 DOI 10.5194/nhess-16-559-2016
CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
Markus Boettle
Diego Rybski
Jürgen Peter Kropp
Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
559
eng
uncontrolled
climate-change
eng
uncontrolled
North-Sea
eng
uncontrolled
extremes
eng
uncontrolled
costs
eng
uncontrolled
21st-Century
eng
uncontrolled
adaptation
eng
uncontrolled
statistics
eng
uncontrolled
impacts
eng
uncontrolled
trends
eng
uncontrolled
cities
Geografie, Reisen
open_access
Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät
Referiert
Open Access
Copernicus
Universität Potsdam
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/files/41240/pmnr559.pdf
41018
2016
2019
eng
15
534
postprint
1
2019-01-18
2019-01-18
--
Damage functions for climate-related hazards
Most climate change impacts manifest in the form of natural hazards. Damage assessment typically relies on damage functions that translate the magnitude of extreme events to a quantifiable damage. In practice, the availability of damage functions is limited due to a lack of data sources and a lack of understanding of damage processes. The study of the characteristics of damage functions for different hazards could strengthen the theoretical foundation of damage functions and support their development and validation. Accordingly, we investigate analogies of damage functions for coastal flooding and for wind storms and identify a unified approach. This approach has general applicability for granular portfolios and may also be applied, for example, to heat-related mortality. Moreover, the unification enables the transfer of methodology between hazards and a consistent treatment of uncertainty. This is demonstrated by a sensitivity analysis on the basis of two simple case studies (for coastal flood and storm damage). The analysis reveals the relevance of the various uncertainty sources at varying hazard magnitude and on both the microscale and the macroscale level. Main findings are the dominance of uncertainty from the hazard magnitude and the persistent behaviour of intrinsic uncertainties on both scale levels. Our results shed light on the general role of uncertainties and provide useful insight for the application of the unified approach.
Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
unification and uncertainty analysis
10.25932/publishup-41018
urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410184
1866-8372
online registration
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 16 (2016), pp. 1189–1203 DOI 10.5194/nhess-16-1189-2016
CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
Boris F. Prahl
Diego Rybski
Markus Boettle
Jürgen Peter Kropp
Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
534
eng
uncontrolled
coastal flood damage
eng
uncontrolled
sea-level rise
eng
uncontrolled
of-the-art
eng
uncontrolled
sensitivity-analysis
eng
uncontrolled
natural hazards
eng
uncontrolled
storm damage
eng
uncontrolled
model
eng
uncontrolled
wind
eng
uncontrolled
vulnerability
eng
uncontrolled
buildings
Geografie, Reisen
open_access
Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät
Referiert
Open Access
Copernicus
Universität Potsdam
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/files/41018/pmnr534.pdf
45797
2016
2016
eng
1189
1203
15
16
article
Copernicus
Göttingen
1
--
--
--
Damage functions for climate-related hazards: unification and uncertainty analysis
Most climate change impacts manifest in the form of natural hazards. Damage assessment typically relies on damage functions that translate the magnitude of extreme events to a quantifiable damage. In practice, the availability of damage functions is limited due to a lack of data sources and a lack of understanding of damage processes. The study of the characteristics of damage functions for different hazards could strengthen the theoretical foundation of damage functions and support their development and validation. Accordingly, we investigate analogies of damage functions for coastal flooding and for wind storms and identify a unified approach. This approach has general applicability for granular portfolios and may also be applied, for example, to heat-related mortality. Moreover, the unification enables the transfer of methodology between hazards and a consistent treatment of uncertainty. This is demonstrated by a sensitivity analysis on the basis of two simple case studies (for coastal flood and storm damage). The analysis reveals the relevance of the various uncertainty sources at varying hazard magnitude and on both the microscale and the macroscale level. Main findings are the dominance of uncertainty from the hazard magnitude and the persistent behaviour of intrinsic uncertainties on both scale levels. Our results shed light on the general role of uncertainties and provide useful insight for the application of the unified approach.
Natural hazards and earth system sciences
10.5194/nhess-16-1189-2016
1561-8633
wos2016:2019
WOS:000378207200011
Prahl, BF (reprint author), Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany., corr@prahl.net
European Community [308 497]; European Union EU-DEM layers
importub
2020-03-22T21:32:01+00:00
filename=package.tar
0a66134f28728adda61b9374f16ee4ba
Boris F. Prahl
Diego Rybski
Markus Boettle
Jürgen Peter Kropp
Institut für Geowissenschaften
Referiert
Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften
Import
45822
2016
2016
eng
559
576
18
16
article
Copernicus
Göttingen
1
--
--
--
Quantifying the effect of sea level rise and flood defence-a point process perspective on coastal flood damage
In contrast to recent advances in projecting sea levels, estimations about the economic impact of sea level rise are vague. Nonetheless, they are of great importance for policy making with regard to adaptation and greenhouse-gas mitigation. Since the damage is mainly caused by extreme events, we propose a stochastic framework to estimate the monetary losses from coastal floods in a confined region. For this purpose, we follow a Peak-over-Threshold approach employing a Poisson point process and the Generalised Pareto Distribution. By considering the effect of sea level rise as well as potential adaptation scenarios on the involved parameters, we are able to study the development of the annual damage. An application to the city of Copenhagen shows that a doubling of losses can be expected from a mean sea level increase of only 11 cm. In general, we find that for varying parameters the expected losses can be well approximated by one of three analytical expressions depending on the extreme value parameters. These findings reveal the complex interplay of the involved parameters and allow conclusions of fundamental relevance. For instance, we show that the damage typically increases faster than the sea level rise itself. This in turn can be of great importance for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on the global scale. Our results are accompanied by an assessment of uncertainty, which reflects the stochastic nature of extreme events. While the absolute value of uncertainty about the flood damage increases with rising mean sea levels, we find that it decreases in relation to the expected damage.
Natural hazards and earth system sciences
10.5194/nhess-16-559-2016
1561-8633
wos2016:2019
WOS:000373920100018
Rybski, D (reprint author), Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany., ca-dr@rybski.de
European Community [308 497]; Potsdam Research Cluster for Georisk Analysis, Environmental Change and Sustainability (PROGRESS)
importub
2020-03-22T21:44:01+00:00
filename=package.tar
aa1afd399cc4b88fdead7f32aeb34e48
Markus Boettle
Diego Rybski
Jürgen Peter Kropp
Institut für Geowissenschaften
Referiert
Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften
Import
45967
2018
2020
eng
20
938
postprint
1
2020-06-04
2020-06-04
--
Damage and protection cost curves for coastal floods within the 600 largest European cities
The economic assessment of the impacts of storm surges and sea-level rise in coastal cities requires high-level information on the damage and protection costs associated with varying flood heights. We provide a systematically and consistently calculated dataset of macroscale damage and protection cost curves for the 600 largest European coastal cities opening the perspective for a wide range of applications. Offering the first comprehensive dataset to include the costs of dike protection, we provide the underpinning information to run comparative assessments of costs and benefits of coastal adaptation. Aggregate cost curves for coastal flooding at the city-level are commonly regarded as by-products of impact assessments and are generally not published as a standalone dataset. Hence, our work also aims at initiating a more critical discussion on the availability and derivation of cost curves.
Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
10.25932/publishup-45967
urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-459672
1866-8372
Scientific Data 5 (2018) 180034 DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2018.34
180034
<a href="http://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/53314">Bibliographieeintrag der Originalveröffentlichung/Quelle</a>
CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
Boris F. Prahl
Markus Boettle
Luís Fílípe Carvalho da Costa
Jürgen Peter Kropp
Diego Rybski
Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
938
eng
uncontrolled
sea-level rise
eng
uncontrolled
topographic data
eng
uncontrolled
climate-change
eng
uncontrolled
adaptation
eng
uncontrolled
scale
eng
uncontrolled
exposure
eng
uncontrolled
model
Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik
Biowissenschaften; Biologie
Medizin und Gesundheit
open_access
Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät
Referiert
Open Access
Universität Potsdam
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/files/45967/pmnr938.pdf
53314
2018
2018
eng
18
5
article
Nature Publ. Group
London
1
2018-03-20
2018-03-20
--
Damage and protection cost curves for coastal floods within the 600 largest European cities
The economic assessment of the impacts of storm surges and sea-level rise in coastal cities requires high-level information on the damage and protection costs associated with varying flood heights. We provide a systematically and consistently calculated dataset of macroscale damage and protection cost curves for the 600 largest European coastal cities opening the perspective for a wide range of applications. Offering the first comprehensive dataset to include the costs of dike protection, we provide the underpinning information to run comparative assessments of costs and benefits of coastal adaptation. Aggregate cost curves for coastal flooding at the city-level are commonly regarded as by-products of impact assessments and are generally not published as a standalone dataset. Hence, our work also aims at initiating a more critical discussion on the availability and derivation of cost curves.
Scientific Data
10.1038/sdata.2018.34
29557944
2052-4463
wos:2018
180034
WOS:000427902400001
Prahl, BF (reprint author), Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany., corr@prahl.net
European CommunityEuropean Community (EC) [308497]
2022-01-06T10:30:32+00:00
sword
importub
filename=package.tar
032ff981b785d3a9cff9deefd6131c99
Prahl, Boris F.
<a href="https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-45967">Zweitveröffentlichung in der Schriftenreihe Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe ; 938 </a>
CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
Boris F. Prahl
Markus Boettle
Luís Fílípe Carvalho da Costa
Jürgen Peter Kropp
Diego Rybski
Biowissenschaften; Biologie
Institut für Biochemie und Biologie
Referiert
Import
Gold Open-Access
DOAJ gelistet