@article{MahlkowPetersenWanner2021,
  author    = {Mahlkow, Hendrik and Petersen, Thieß and Wanner, Joschka},
  title     = {Folgen eines h{\"o}heren CO2-Preises in der EU},
  series = {Wirtschaftsdienst},
  volume    = {101},
  journal   = {Wirtschaftsdienst},
  number    = {11},
  publisher = {ZBW},
  address   = {Hamburg},
  issn      = {0043-6275},
  doi       = {10.1007/s10273-021-3048-5},
  pages     = {870 -- 877},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Damit die EU ihre ambitionierten Klimaschutzziele erreichen kann, werden die Preise f{\"u}r Treibhausgasemissionen in den n{\"a}chsten Jahren sp{\"u}rbar steigen. Das hat {\"o}konomische Auswirkungen f{\"u}r die EU-Mitgliedsl{\"a}nder, aber auch den Rest der Welt. Einzelne Sektoren und auch Volkswirtschaften werden davon unterschiedlich stark getroffen.},
  language  = {de}
}
@techreport{Schrauth2022,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Schrauth, Philipp},
  title     = {The Causal Effect of Cycling Infrastructure on Traffic and Accidents},
  series = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  journal   = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  number    = {48},
  issn      = {2628-653X},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-55335},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-553359},
  pages     = {56},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {This paper analyzes the effect of new bicycle lanes on traffic volume, congestion, and accidents. Crucially, the new bike lanes replace existing car lanes thereby reducing available space for motorized traffic. In order to obtain causal estimates, I exploit the quasi-random timing and location of the newly built cycle lanes. Using an event study design, a two-way fixed effects model and the synthetic control group method on geo-coded data, I show that the construction of pop-up bike lanes significantly reduced average car speed by 8 to 12 percentage points (p.p.) and up to 16 p.p. in peak traffic hours. In contrast, the results for car volume are modest, while the data does not allow for a conclusive judgment of accidents.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{ŠedovaČizmaziovaCook2021,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Šedov{\´a}, Barbora and Čizmaziov{\´a}, Lucia and Cook, Athene},
  title     = {A meta-analysis of climate migration literature},
  series = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  journal   = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  number    = {29},
  issn      = {2628-653X},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-49982},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-499827},
  pages     = {83},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {The large literature that aims to find evidence of climate migration delivers mixed findings. This meta-regression analysis i) summarizes direct links between adverse climatic events and migration, ii) maps patterns of climate migration, and iii) explains the variation in outcomes. Using a set of limited dependent variable models, we meta-analyze thus-far the most comprehensive sample of 3,625 estimates from 116 original studies and produce novel insights on climate migration. We find that extremely high temperatures and drying conditions increase migration. We do not find a significant effect of sudden-onset events. Climate migration is most likely to emerge due to contemporaneous events, to originate in rural areas and to take place in middle-income countries, internally, to cities. The likelihood to become trapped in affected areas is higher for women and in low-income countries, particularly in Africa. We uniquely quantify how pitfalls typical for the broader empirical climate impact literature affect climate migration findings. We also find evidence of different publication biases.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Willner2018,
  author    = {Willner, Sven N.},
  title     = {Global economic response to flood damages under climate change},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {v, 247},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Climate change affects societies across the globe in various ways. In addition to gradual changes in temperature and other climatic variables, global warming is likely to increase intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Beyond biophysical impacts, these also directly affect societal and economic activity. Additionally, indirect effects can occur; spatially, economic losses can spread along global supply-chains; temporally, climate impacts can change the economic development trajectory of countries. This thesis first examines how climate change alters river flood risk and its local socio-economic implications. Then, it studies the global economic response to river floods in particular, and to climate change in general. Changes in high-end river flood risk are calculated for the next three decades on a global scale with high spatial resolution. In order to account for uncertainties, this assessment makes use of an ensemble of climate and hydrological models as well as a river routing model, that is found to perform well regarding peak river discharge. The results show an increase in high-end flood risk in many parts of the world, which require profound adaptation efforts. This pressure to adapt is measured as the enhancement in protection level necessary to stay at historical high-end risk. In developing countries as well as in industrialized regions, a high pressure to adapt is observed - the former to increase low protection levels, the latter to maintain the low risk levels perceived in the past. Further in this thesis, the global agent-based dynamic supply-chain model acclimate is developed. It models the cascading of indirect losses in the global supply network. As an anomaly model its agents - firms and consumers - maximize their profit locally to respond optimally to local perturbations. Incorporating quantities as well as prices on a daily basis, it is suitable to dynamically resolve the impacts of unanticipated climate extremes. The model is further complemented by a static measure, which captures the inter-dependencies between sectors across regions that are only connected indirectly. These higher-order dependencies are shown to be important for a comprehensive assessment of loss-propagation and overall costs of local disasters. In order to study the economic response to river floods, the acclimate model is driven by flood simulations. Within the next two decades, the increase in direct losses can only partially be compensated by market adjustments, and total losses are projected to increase by 17\% without further adaptation efforts. The US and the EU are both shown to receive indirect losses from China, which is strongly affected directly. However, recent trends in the trade relations leave the EU in a better position to compensate for these losses. Finally, this thesis takes a broader perspective when determining the investment response to the climate change damages employing the integrated assessment model DICE. On an optimal economic development path, the increase in damages is anticipated as emissions and consequently temperatures increase. This leads to a significant devaluation of investment returns and the income losses from climate damages almost double. Overall, the results highlight the need to adapt to extreme weather events - local physical adaptation measures have to be combined with regional and global policy measures to prepare the global supply-chain network to climate change.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{LudolphŠedova2021,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Ludolph, Lars and Šedov{\´a}, Barbora},
  title     = {Global food prices, local weather and migration in Sub-Saharan Africa},
  series = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  journal   = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  number    = {26},
  issn      = {2628-653X},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-49494},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-494946},
  pages     = {53},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {In this paper, we study the effect of exogenous global crop price changes on migration from agricultural and non-agricultural households in Sub-Saharan Africa. We show that, similar to the effect of positive local weather shocks, the effect of a locally-relevant global crop price increase on household out-migration depends on the initial household wealth. Higher international producer prices relax the budget constraint of poor agricultural households and facilitate migration. The order of magnitude of a standardized price effect is approx. one third of the standardized effect of a local weather shock. Unlike positive weather shocks, which mostly facilitate internal rural-urban migration, positive income shocks through rising producer prices only increase migration to neighboring African countries, likely due to the simultaneous decrease in real income in nearby urban areas. Finally, we show that while higher producer prices induce conflict, conflict does not play a role for the household decision to send a member as a labor migrant.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{Brenner2021,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Brenner, Andri},
  title     = {The Social Power of Spillover Effects},
  series = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  journal   = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  number    = {35},
  issn      = {2628-653X},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-51109},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-511098},
  pages     = {60},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Economists are worried that the lack of property rights to natural capital goods jeopardizes the sustainability of the economic growth miracle that has existed since industrialization. This article questions their position. A vertical innovation model with a portfolio of technologies for abatement, adaptation, and general (Harrod-neutral) technology reveals that environmental damage spillovers have a comparable effect on research profits as technology spillovers so that the social costs of depleting public natural capital are internalized. As long as there is free access to information and technology, growth is sustainable and the allocation of research efforts among alternative technologies is socially optimal. While there still is a need to address externalities from monopolistic research markets, no environmental policy is necessary. These results suggest that environmental externalities may originate in restricted access to information and technology, demonstrating that (i) information has a similar effect as an environmental tax and (ii) knowledge and technology transfers have an impact comparable to that of subsidies for research in green technology.},
  language  = {en}
}