@article{MahlkowPetersenWanner2021,
  author    = {Mahlkow, Hendrik and Petersen, Thieß and Wanner, Joschka},
  title     = {Folgen eines h{\"o}heren CO2-Preises in der EU},
  series = {Wirtschaftsdienst},
  volume    = {101},
  journal   = {Wirtschaftsdienst},
  number    = {11},
  publisher = {ZBW},
  address   = {Hamburg},
  issn      = {0043-6275},
  doi       = {10.1007/s10273-021-3048-5},
  pages     = {870 -- 877},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Damit die EU ihre ambitionierten Klimaschutzziele erreichen kann, werden die Preise f{\"u}r Treibhausgasemissionen in den n{\"a}chsten Jahren sp{\"u}rbar steigen. Das hat {\"o}konomische Auswirkungen f{\"u}r die EU-Mitgliedsl{\"a}nder, aber auch den Rest der Welt. Einzelne Sektoren und auch Volkswirtschaften werden davon unterschiedlich stark getroffen.},
  language  = {de}
}
@techreport{KalkuhlFranksGruneretal.2023,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Franks, Max and Gruner, Friedemann and Lessmann, Kai and Edenhofer, Ottmar},
  title     = {Pigou's Advice and Sisyphus' Warning},
  series = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  journal   = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  number    = {62},
  issn      = {2628-653X},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-57588},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-575882},
  pages     = {66},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere is becoming an important option to achieve net zero climate targets. This paper develops a welfare and public economics perspective on optimal policies for carbon removal and storage in non-permanent sinks like forests, soil, oceans, wood products or chemical products. We derive a new metric for the valuation of non-permanent carbon storage, the social cost of carbon removal (SCC-R), which embeds also the conventional social cost of carbon emissions. We show that the contribution of CDR is to create new carbon sinks that should be used to reduce transition costs, even if the stored carbon is released to the atmosphere eventually. Importantly, CDR does not raise the ambition of optimal temperature levels unless initial atmospheric carbon stocks are excessively high. For high initial atmospheric carbon stocks, CDR allows to reduce the optimal temperature below initial levels. Finally, we characterize three different policy regimes that ensure an optimal deployment of carbon removal: downstream carbon pricing, upstream carbon pricing, and carbon storage pricing. The policy regimes differ in their informational and institutional requirements regarding monitoring, liability and financing.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{ŠedovaČizmaziovaCook2021,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Šedov{\´a}, Barbora and Čizmaziov{\´a}, Lucia and Cook, Athene},
  title     = {A meta-analysis of climate migration literature},
  series = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  journal   = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  number    = {29},
  issn      = {2628-653X},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-49982},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-499827},
  pages     = {83},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {The large literature that aims to find evidence of climate migration delivers mixed findings. This meta-regression analysis i) summarizes direct links between adverse climatic events and migration, ii) maps patterns of climate migration, and iii) explains the variation in outcomes. Using a set of limited dependent variable models, we meta-analyze thus-far the most comprehensive sample of 3,625 estimates from 116 original studies and produce novel insights on climate migration. We find that extremely high temperatures and drying conditions increase migration. We do not find a significant effect of sudden-onset events. Climate migration is most likely to emerge due to contemporaneous events, to originate in rural areas and to take place in middle-income countries, internally, to cities. The likelihood to become trapped in affected areas is higher for women and in low-income countries, particularly in Africa. We uniquely quantify how pitfalls typical for the broader empirical climate impact literature affect climate migration findings. We also find evidence of different publication biases.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Willner2018,
  author    = {Willner, Sven N.},
  title     = {Global economic response to flood damages under climate change},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {v, 247},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Climate change affects societies across the globe in various ways. In addition to gradual changes in temperature and other climatic variables, global warming is likely to increase intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Beyond biophysical impacts, these also directly affect societal and economic activity. Additionally, indirect effects can occur; spatially, economic losses can spread along global supply-chains; temporally, climate impacts can change the economic development trajectory of countries. This thesis first examines how climate change alters river flood risk and its local socio-economic implications. Then, it studies the global economic response to river floods in particular, and to climate change in general. Changes in high-end river flood risk are calculated for the next three decades on a global scale with high spatial resolution. In order to account for uncertainties, this assessment makes use of an ensemble of climate and hydrological models as well as a river routing model, that is found to perform well regarding peak river discharge. The results show an increase in high-end flood risk in many parts of the world, which require profound adaptation efforts. This pressure to adapt is measured as the enhancement in protection level necessary to stay at historical high-end risk. In developing countries as well as in industrialized regions, a high pressure to adapt is observed - the former to increase low protection levels, the latter to maintain the low risk levels perceived in the past. Further in this thesis, the global agent-based dynamic supply-chain model acclimate is developed. It models the cascading of indirect losses in the global supply network. As an anomaly model its agents - firms and consumers - maximize their profit locally to respond optimally to local perturbations. Incorporating quantities as well as prices on a daily basis, it is suitable to dynamically resolve the impacts of unanticipated climate extremes. The model is further complemented by a static measure, which captures the inter-dependencies between sectors across regions that are only connected indirectly. These higher-order dependencies are shown to be important for a comprehensive assessment of loss-propagation and overall costs of local disasters. In order to study the economic response to river floods, the acclimate model is driven by flood simulations. Within the next two decades, the increase in direct losses can only partially be compensated by market adjustments, and total losses are projected to increase by 17\% without further adaptation efforts. The US and the EU are both shown to receive indirect losses from China, which is strongly affected directly. However, recent trends in the trade relations leave the EU in a better position to compensate for these losses. Finally, this thesis takes a broader perspective when determining the investment response to the climate change damages employing the integrated assessment model DICE. On an optimal economic development path, the increase in damages is anticipated as emissions and consequently temperatures increase. This leads to a significant devaluation of investment returns and the income losses from climate damages almost double. Overall, the results highlight the need to adapt to extreme weather events - local physical adaptation measures have to be combined with regional and global policy measures to prepare the global supply-chain network to climate change.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{LudolphŠedova2021,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Ludolph, Lars and Šedov{\´a}, Barbora},
  title     = {Global food prices, local weather and migration in Sub-Saharan Africa},
  series = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  journal   = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  number    = {26},
  issn      = {2628-653X},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-49494},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-494946},
  pages     = {53},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {In this paper, we study the effect of exogenous global crop price changes on migration from agricultural and non-agricultural households in Sub-Saharan Africa. We show that, similar to the effect of positive local weather shocks, the effect of a locally-relevant global crop price increase on household out-migration depends on the initial household wealth. Higher international producer prices relax the budget constraint of poor agricultural households and facilitate migration. The order of magnitude of a standardized price effect is approx. one third of the standardized effect of a local weather shock. Unlike positive weather shocks, which mostly facilitate internal rural-urban migration, positive income shocks through rising producer prices only increase migration to neighboring African countries, likely due to the simultaneous decrease in real income in nearby urban areas. Finally, we show that while higher producer prices induce conflict, conflict does not play a role for the household decision to send a member as a labor migrant.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{BacheletKalkuhlKoch2022,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Bachelet, Marion and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Koch, Nicolas},
  title     = {What if working from home will stick?},
  series = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  journal   = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  number    = {41},
  issn      = {2628-653X},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-53238},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-532384},
  pages     = {28},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {The COVID-19 pandemic created the largest experiment in working from home. We study how persistent telework may change energy and transport consumption and costs in Germany to assess the distributional and environmental implications when working from home will stick. Based on data from the German Microcensus and available classifications of working-from-home feasibility for different occupations, we calculate the change in energy consumption and travel to work when 15\% of employees work full time from home. Our findings suggest that telework translates into an annual increase in heating energy expenditure of 110 euros per worker and a decrease in transport expenditure of 840 euros per worker. All income groups would gain from telework but high-income workers gain twice as much as low-income workers. The value of time saving is between 1.3 and 6 times greater than the savings from reduced travel costs and almost 9 times higher for high-income workers than low-income workers. The direct effects on CO₂ emissions due to reduced car commuting amount to 4.5 millions tons of CO₂, representing around 3 percent of carbon emissions in the transport sector.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{BorckMulder2024,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Borck, Rainald and Mulder, Peter},
  title     = {Energy policies and pollution in two developing country cities},
  series = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  journal   = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  number    = {78},
  issn      = {2628-653X},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-63847},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-638472},
  pages     = {37},
  year      = {2024},
  abstract  = {We study the effect of energy and transport policies on pollution in two developing country cities. We use a quantitative equilibrium model with choice of housing, energy use, residential location, transport mode, and energy technology. Pollution comes from commuting and residential energy use. The model parameters are calibrated to replicate key variables for two developing country cities, Maputo, Mozambique, and Yogyakarta, Indonesia. In the counterfactual simulations, we study how various transport and energy policies affect equilibrium pollution. Policies may be induce rebound effects from increasing residential energy use or switching to high emission modes or locations. In general, these rebound effects tend to be largest for subsidies to public transport or modern residential energy technology.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{LessmannGrunerKalkuhletal.2024,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Lessmann, Kai and Gruner, Friedemann and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Edenhofer, Ottmar},
  title     = {Emissions Trading with Clean-up Certificates},
  series = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  journal   = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  number    = {79},
  issn      = {2628-653X},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-64136},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-641368},
  pages     = {35},
  year      = {2024},
  abstract  = {We analyze how conventional emissions trading schemes (ETS) can be modified by introducing "clean-up certificates" to allow for a phase of net-negative emissions. Clean-up certificates bundle the permission to emit CO2 with the obligation for its removal. We show that demand for such certificates is determined by cost-saving technological progress, the discount rate and the length of the compliance period. Introducing extra clean-up certificates into an existing ETS reduces near-term carbon prices and mitigation efforts. In contrast, substituting ETS allowances with clean-up certificates reduces cumulative emissions without depressing carbon prices or mitigation in the near term. We calibrate our model to the EU ETS and identify reforms where simultaneously (i) ambition levels rise, (ii) climate damages fall, (iii) revenues from carbon prices rise and (iv) carbon prices and aggregate mitigation cost fall. For reducing climate damages, roughly half of the issued clean-up certificates should replace conventional ETS allowances. In the context of the EU ETS, a European Carbon Central Bank could manage the implementation of cleanup certificates and could serve as an enforcement mechanism.},
  language  = {en}
}