@phdthesis{TabaresJimenez2021, author = {Tabares Jimenez, Ximena del Carmen}, title = {A palaeoecological approach to savanna dynamics and shrub encroachment in Namibia}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-49281}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-492815}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {121}, year = {2021}, abstract = {The spread of shrubs in Namibian savannas raises questions about the resilience of these ecosystems to global change. This makes it necessary to understand the past dynamics of the vegetation, since there is no consensus on whether shrub encroachment is a new phenomenon, nor on its main drivers. However, a lack of long-term vegetation datasets for the region and the scarcity of suitable palaeoecological archives, makes reconstructing past vegetation and land cover of the savannas a challenge. To help meet this challenge, this study addresses three main research questions: 1) is pollen analysis a suitable tool to reflect the vegetation change associated with shrub encroachment in savanna environments? 2) Does the current encroached landscape correspond to an alternative stable state of savanna vegetation? 3) To what extent do pollen-based quantitative vegetation reconstructions reflect changes in past land cover? The research focuses on north-central Namibia, where despite being the region most affected by shrub invasion, particularly since the 21st century, little is known about the dynamics of this phenomenon. Field-based vegetation data were compared with modern pollen data to assess their correspondence in terms of composition and diversity along precipitation and grazing intensity gradients. In addition, two sediment cores from Lake Otjikoto were analysed to reveal changes in vegetation composition that have occurred in the region over the past 170 years and their possible drivers. For this, a multiproxy approach (fossil pollen, sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA), biomarkers, compound specific carbon (δ13C) and deuterium (δD) isotopes, bulk carbon isotopes (δ13Corg), grain size, geochemical properties) was applied at high taxonomic and temporal resolution. REVEALS modelling of the fossil pollen record from Lake Otjikoto was run to quantitatively reconstruct past vegetation cover. For this, we first made pollen productivity estimates (PPE) of the most relevant savanna taxa in the region using the extended R-value model and two pollen dispersal options (Gaussian plume model and Lagrangian stochastic model). The REVEALS-based vegetation reconstruction was then validated using remote sensing-based regional vegetation data. The results show that modern pollen reflects the composition of the vegetation well, but diversity less well. Interestingly, precipitation and grazing explain a significant amount of the compositional change in the pollen and vegetation spectra. The multiproxy record shows that a state change from open Combretum woodland to encroached Terminalia shrubland can occur over a century, and that the transition between states spans around 80 years and is characterized by a unique vegetation composition. This transition is supported by gradual environmental changes induced by management (i.e. broad-scale logging for the mining industry, selective grazing and reduced fire activity associated with intensified farming) and related land-use change. Derived environmental changes (i.e. reduced soil moisture, reduced grass cover, changes in species composition and competitiveness, reduced fire intensity) may have affected the resilience of Combretum open woodlands, making them more susceptible to change to an encroached state by stochastic events such as consecutive years of precipitation and drought, and by high concentrations of pCO2. We assume that the resulting encroached state was further stabilized by feedback mechanisms that favour the establishment and competitiveness of woody vegetation. The REVEALS-based quantitative estimates of plant taxa indicate the predominance of a semi-open landscape throughout the 20th century and a reduction in grass cover below 50\% since the 21st century associated with the spread of encroacher woody taxa. Cover estimates show a close match with regional vegetation data, providing support for the vegetation dynamics inferred from multiproxy analyses. Reasonable PPEs were made for all woody taxa, but not for Poaceae. In conclusion, pollen analysis is a suitable tool to reconstruct past vegetation dynamics in savannas. However, because pollen cannot identify grasses beyond family level, a multiproxy approach, particularly the use of sedaDNA, is required. I was able to separate stable encroached states from mere woodland phases, and could identify drivers and speculate about related feedbacks. In addition, the REVEALS-based quantitative vegetation reconstruction clearly reflects the magnitude of the changes in the vegetation cover that occurred during the last 130 years, despite the limitations of some PPEs. This research provides new insights into pollen-vegetation relationships in savannas and highlights the importance of multiproxy approaches when reconstructing past vegetation dynamics in semi-arid environments. It also provides the first time series with sufficient taxonomic resolution to show changes in vegetation composition during shrub encroachment, as well as the first quantitative reconstruction of past land cover in the region. These results help to identify the different stages in savanna dynamics and can be used to calibrate predictive models of vegetation change, which are highly relevant to land management.}, language = {en} } @misc{RolinskiRammigWalzetal.2014, author = {Rolinski, Susanne and Rammig, Anja and Walz, Ariane and von Bloh, Werner and van Oijen, M. and Thonicke, Kirsten}, title = {A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (487)}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (487)}, number = {487}, issn = {1866-8372}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407999}, pages = {1813 -- 1831}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model- based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.}, language = {en} } @misc{WaltherGuanterHeimetal.2018, author = {Walther, Sophia and Guanter, Luis and Heim, Birgit and Jung, Martin and Duveiller, Gregory and Wolanin, Aleksandra and Sachs, Torsten}, title = {Assessing the dynamics of vegetation productivity in circumpolar regions with different satellite indicators of greenness and photosynthesis}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1025}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-44620}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446205}, pages = {6221 -- 6256}, year = {2018}, abstract = {High-latitude treeless ecosystems represent spatially highly heterogeneous landscapes with small net carbon fluxes and a short growing season. Reliable observations and process understanding are critical for projections of the carbon balance of the climate-sensitive tundra. Space-borne remote sensing is the only tool to obtain spatially continuous and temporally resolved information on vegetation greenness and activity in remote circumpolar areas. However, confounding effects from persistent clouds, low sun elevation angles, numerous lakes, widespread surface inundation, and the sparseness of the vegetation render it highly challenging. Here, we conduct an extensive analysis of the timing of peak vegetation productivity as shown by satellite observations of complementary indicators of plant greenness and photosynthesis. We choose to focus on productivity during the peak of the growing season, as it importantly affects the total annual carbon uptake. The suite of indicators are as follows: (1) MODIS-based vegetation indices (VIs) as proxies for the fraction of incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) that is absorbed (fPAR), (2) VIs combined with estimates of PAR as a proxy of the total absorbed radiation (APAR), (3) sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) serving as a proxy for photosynthesis, (4) vegetation optical depth (VOD), indicative of total water content and (5) empirically upscaled modelled gross primary productivity (GPP). Averaged over the pan-Arctic we find a clear order of the annual peak as APAR ≦ GPP