@article{CabalarFandinoLierler2020,
author = {Cabalar, Pedro and Fandi{\~n}o, Jorge and Lierler, Yuliya},
title = {Modular Answer Set Programming as a formal specification language},
series = {Theory and practice of logic programming},
volume = {20},
journal = {Theory and practice of logic programming},
number = {5},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
address = {New York},
issn = {1471-0684},
doi = {10.1017/S1471068420000265},
pages = {767 -- 782},
year = {2020},
abstract = {In this paper, we study the problem of formal verification for Answer Set Programming (ASP), namely, obtaining aformal proofshowing that the answer sets of a given (non-ground) logic programPcorrectly correspond to the solutions to the problem encoded byP, regardless of the problem instance. To this aim, we use a formal specification language based on ASP modules, so that each module can be proved to capture some informal aspect of the problem in an isolated way. This specification language relies on a novel definition of (possibly nested, first order)program modulesthat may incorporate local hidden atoms at different levels. Then,verifyingthe logic programPamounts to prove some kind of equivalence betweenPand its modular specification.},
language = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Koehler2020,
author = {K{\"o}hler, Raphael},
title = {Towards seasonal prediction: stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the atmospheric model ICON-NWP},
doi = {10.25932/publishup-48723},
url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-487231},
school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
pages = {viii, 119},
year = {2020},
abstract = {Stratospheric variability is one of the main potential sources for sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability in mid-latitudes in winter. Stratospheric pathways play an important role for long-range teleconnections between tropical phenomena, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the mid-latitudes on the one hand, and linkages between Arctic climate change and the mid-latitudes on the other hand. In order to move forward in the field of extratropical seasonal predictions, it is essential that an atmospheric model is able to realistically simulate the stratospheric circulation and variability. The numerical weather prediction (NWP) configuration of the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic atmosphere model ICON is currently being used by the German Meteorological Service for the regular weather forecast, and is intended to produce seasonal predictions in future. This thesis represents the first extensive evaluation of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric winter circulation in ICON-NWP by analysing a large set of seasonal ensemble experiments. An ICON control climatology simulated with a default setup is able to reproduce the basic behaviour of the stratospheric polar vortex. However, stratospheric westerlies are significantly too weak and major stratospheric warmings too frequent, especially in January. The weak stratospheric polar vortex in ICON is furthermore connected to a mean sea level pressure (MSLP) bias pattern resembling the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Since a good representation of the drag exerted by gravity waves is crucial for a realistic simulation of the stratosphere, three sensitivity experiments with reduced gravity wave drag are performed. Both a reduction of the non-orographic and orographic gravity wave drag respectively, lead to a strengthening of the stratospheric vortex and thus a bias reduction in winter, in particular in January. However, the effect of the non-orographic gravity wave drag on the stratosphere is stronger. A third experiment, combining a reduced orographic and non-orographic drag, exhibits the largest stratospheric bias reductions. The analysis of stratosphere-troposphere coupling based on an index of the Northern Annular Mode demonstrates that ICON realistically represents downward coupling. This coupling is intensified and more realistic in experiments with a reduced gravity wave drag, in particular with reduced non-orographic drag. Tropospheric circulation is also affected by the reduced gravity wave drag, especially in January, when the strongly improved stratospheric circulation reduces biases in the MSLP patterns. Moreover, a retuning of the subgrid-scale orography parameterisations leads to a significant error reduction in the MSLP in all months. In conclusion, the combination of these adjusted parameterisations is recommended as a current optimal setup for seasonal simulations with ICON. Additionally, this thesis discusses further possible influences on the stratospheric polar vortex, including the influence of tropical phenomena, such as QBO and ENSO, as well as the influence of a rapidly warming Arctic. ICON does not simulate the quasi-oscillatory behaviour of the QBO and favours weak easterlies in the tropical stratosphere. A comparison with a reanalysis composite of the easterly QBO phase reveals, that the shift towards the easterly QBO in ICON further weakens the stratospheric polar vortex. On the other hand, the stratospheric reaction to ENSO events in ICON is realistic. ICON and the reanalysis exhibit a weakened stratospheric vortex in warm ENSO years. Furthermore, in particular in winter, warm ENSO events favour the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, whereas cold events favour the positive phase. The ICON simulations also suggest a significant effect of ENSO on the Atlantic-European sector in late winter. To investigate the influence of Arctic climate change on mid-latitude circulation changes, two differing approaches with transient and fixed sea ice conditions are chosen. Neither ICON approach exhibits the mid-latitude tropospheric negative Arctic Oscillation circulation response to amplified Arctic warming, as it is discussed on the basis of observational evidence. Nevertheless, adding a new model to the current and active discussion on Arctic-midlatitude linkages, further contributes to the understanding of divergent conclusions between model and observational studies.},
language = {en}
}
@article{AbdallaAdamAharonianetal.2020,
author = {Abdalla, H. and Adam, R. and Aharonian, Felix A. and Benkhali, F. Ait and Ang{\"u}ner, Ekrem Oǧuzhan and Arcaro, C. and Armand, C. and Armstrong, T. and Ashkar, H. and Backes, M. and Baghmanyan, V. and Martins, V. Barbosa and Barnacka, A. and Barnard, M. and Becherini, Y. and Berge, D. and Bernlohr, K. and Bi, B. and Bottcher, M. and Boisson, C. and Bolmont, J. and de Lavergne, M. de Bony and Bordas, Pol and Breuhaus, M. and Brun, F. and Brun, P. and Bryan, M. and Buchele, M. and Bulik, T. and Bylund, T. and Caroff, S. and Carosi, A. and Casanova, Sabrina and Chand, T. and Chandra, S. and Chen, A. and Cotter, G. and Curylo, M. and Mbarubucyeye, J. Damascene and Davids, I. D. and Davies, J. and Deil, C. and Devin, J. and deWilt, P. and Dirson, L. and Djannati-Atai, A. and Dmytriiev, A. and Donath, A. and Doroshenko, V. and Duffy, C. and Dyks, J. and Egberts, Kathrin and Eichhorn, F. and Einecke, S. and Emery, G. and Ernenwein, J. -P. and Feijen, K. and Fegan, S. and Fiasson, A. and de Clairfontaine, G. Fichet and Fontaine, G. and Funk, S. and Fussling, Matthias and Gabici, S. and Gallant, Y. A. and Giavitto, G. and Giunti, L. and Glawion, D. and Glicenstein, J. F. and Gottschall, D. and Grondin, M. -H. and Hahn, J. and Haupt, M. and Hermann, G. and Hinton, J. A. and Hofmann, W. and Hoischen, Clemens and Holch, T. L. and Holler, M. and Horbe, M. and Horns, D. and Huber, D. and Jamrozy, M. and Jankowsky, D. and Jankowsky, F. and Jardin-Blicq, A. and Joshi, V. and Jung-Richardt, I. and Kasai, E. and Kastendieck, M. A. and Katarzynski, K. and Katz, U. and Khangulyan, D. and Khelifi, B. and Klepser, S. and Kluzniak, W. and Komin, Nu. and Konno, R. and Kosack, K. and Kostunin, D. and Kreter, M. and Lamanna, G. and Lemiere, A. and Lemoine-Goumard, M. and Lenain, J. -P. and Levy, C. and Lohse, T. and Lypova, I. and Mackey, J. and Majumdar, J. and Malyshev, D. and Malyshev, D. and Marandon, V. and Marchegiani, P. and Marcowith, Alexandre and Mares, A. and Marti-Devesa, G. and Marx, R. and Maurin, G. and Meintjes, P. J. and Meyer, M. and Mitchell, A. and Moderski, R. and Mohamed, M. and Mohrmann, L. and Montanari, A. and Moore, C. and Morris, P. and Moulin, Emmanuel and Muller, J. and Murach, T. and Nakashima, K. and Nayerhoda, A. and de Naurois, M. and Ndiyavala, H. and Niederwanger, F. and Niemiec, J. and Oakes, L. and O'Brien, Patrick and Odaka, H. and Ohm, S. and Olivera-Nieto, L. and Wilhelmi, E. de Ona and Ostrowski, M. and Oya, I. and Panter, M. and Panny, S. and Parsons, R. D. and Peron, G. and Peyaud, B. and Piel, Q. and Pita, S. and Poireau, V. and Noel, A. Priyana and Prokhorov, D. A. and Prokoph, H. and Puhlhofer, G. and Punch, M. and Quirrenbach, A. and Raab, S. and Rauth, R. and Reichherzer, P. and Reimer, A. and Reimer, O. and Remy, Q. and Renaud, M. and Rieger, F. and Rinchiuso, L. and Romoli, C. and Rowell, G. and Rudak, B. and Ruiz-Velasco, E. and Sahakian, V. and Sailer, S. and Sanchez, D. A. and Santangelo, Andrea and Sasaki, M. and Scalici, M. and Schussler, F. and Schutte, H. M. and Schwanke, U. and Schwemmer, S. and Seglar-Arroyo, M. and Senniappan, M. and Seyffert, A. S. and Shafi, N. and Shiningayamwe, K. and Simoni, R. and Sinha, A. and Sol, H. and Specovius, A. and Spencer, S. and Spir-Jacob, M. and Stawarz, L. and Sun, L. and Steenkamp, R. and Stegmann, C. and Steinmassl, S. and Steppa, C. and Takahashi, T. and Tavernier, T. and Taylor, A. M. and Terrier, R. and Tiziani, D. and Tluczykont, M. and Tomankova, L. and Trichard, C. and Tsirou, M. and Tuffs, R. and Uchiyama, Y. and van der Walt, D. J. and van Eldik, C. and van Rensburg, C. and van Soelen, B. and Vasileiadis, G. and Veh, J. and Venter, C. and Vincent, P. and Vink, J. and Volk, H. J. and Vuillaume, T. and Wadiasingh, Z. and Wagner, S. J. and Watson, J. and Werner, F. and White, R. and Wierzcholska, A. and Wong, Yu Wun and Yusafzai, A. and Zacharias, M. and Zanin, R. and Zargaryan, D. and Zdziarski, A. A. and Zech, Alraune and Zhu, S. J. and Ziegler, A. and Zorn, J. and Zouari, S. and Zywucka, N.},
title = {An extreme particle accelerator in the Galactic plane},
series = {Astronomy and astrophysics : an international weekly journal},
volume = {644},
journal = {Astronomy and astrophysics : an international weekly journal},
publisher = {EDP Sciences},
address = {Les Ulis},
organization = {HESS Collaboration},
issn = {0004-6361},
doi = {10.1051/0004-6361/202038851},
pages = {8},
year = {2020},
abstract = {The unidentified very-high-energy (VHE; E > 0.1 TeV) gamma -ray source, HESS J1826-130, was discovered with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS) in the Galactic plane. The analysis of 215 h of HESS data has revealed a steady gamma -ray flux from HESS J1826-130, which appears extended with a half-width of 0.21 degrees +/- 0.02
(stat)degrees
stat degrees +/- 0.05
(sys)degrees sys degrees . The source spectrum is best fit with either a power-law function with a spectral index Gamma = 1.78 +/- 0.10(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) and an exponential cut-off at 15.2
(+5.5)(-3.2) -3.2+5.5 TeV, or a broken power-law with Gamma (1) = 1.96 +/- 0.06(stat) +/- 0.20(sys), Gamma (2) = 3.59 +/- 0.69(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) for energies below and above E-br = 11.2 +/- 2.7 TeV, respectively. The VHE flux from HESS J1826-130 is contaminated by the extended emission of the bright, nearby pulsar wind nebula, HESS J1825-137, particularly at the low end of the energy spectrum. Leptonic scenarios for the origin of HESS J1826-130 VHE emission related to PSR J1826-1256 are confronted by our spectral and morphological analysis. In a hadronic framework, taking into account the properties of dense gas regions surrounding HESS J1826-130, the source spectrum would imply an astrophysical object capable of accelerating the parent particle population up to greater than or similar to 200 TeV. Our results are also discussed in a multiwavelength context, accounting for both the presence of nearby supernova remnants, molecular clouds, and counterparts detected in radio, X-rays, and TeV energies.},
language = {en}
}
@article{ChengZhangKliemetal.2020,
author = {Cheng, Xin and Zhang, Jie and Kliem, Bernhard and T{\"o}r{\"o}k, Tibor and Xing, Chen and Zhou, Zhenjun and Inhester, Bernd and Ding, Mingde},
title = {Initiation and early kinematic evolution of solar eruptions},
series = {The Astrophysical Journal},
volume = {894},
journal = {The Astrophysical Journal},
number = {2},
publisher = {Cambridge Scientific Publishers},
address = {Cambridge},
issn = {1055-6796},
doi = {10.3847/1538-4357/ab886a},
pages = {1 -- 20},
year = {2020},
abstract = {We investigate the initiation and early evolution of 12 solar eruptions, including six active-region hot channel and six quiescent filament eruptions, which were well observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory, as well as by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory for the latter. The sample includes one failed eruption and 11 coronal mass ejections, with velocities ranging from 493 to 2140 km s(-1). A detailed analysis of the eruption kinematics yields the following main results. (1) The early evolution of all events consists of a slow-rise phase followed by a main-acceleration phase, the height-time profiles of which differ markedly and can be best fit, respectively, by a linear and an exponential function. This indicates that different physical processes dominate in these phases, which is at variance with models that involve a single process. (2) The kinematic evolution of the eruptions tends to be synchronized with the flare light curve in both phases. The synchronization is often but not always close. A delayed onset of the impulsive flare phase is found in the majority of the filament eruptions (five out of six). This delay and its trend to be larger for slower eruptions favor ideal MHD instability models. (3) The average decay index at the onset heights of the main acceleration is close to the threshold of the torus instability for both groups of events (although, it is based on a tentative coronal field model for the hot channels), suggesting that this instability initiates and possibly drives the main acceleration.},
language = {en}
}
@article{CervantesVillaShpritsAseevetal.2020,
author = {Cervantes Villa, Juan Sebastian and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Aseev, Nikita and Allison, Hayley J.},
title = {Quantifying the effects of EMIC wave scattering and magnetopause shadowing in the outer electron radiation belt by means of data assimilation},
series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics},
volume = {125},
journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics},
number = {8},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
address = {Washington},
issn = {2169-9380},
doi = {10.1029/2020JA028208},
pages = {23},
year = {2020},
abstract = {In this study we investigate two distinct loss mechanisms responsible for the rapid dropouts of radiation belt electrons by assimilating data from Van Allen Probes A and B and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 13 and 15 into a 3-D diffusion model. In particular, we examine the respective contribution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering and magnetopause shadowing for values of the first adiabatic invariant mu ranging from 300 to 3,000 MeV G(-1). We inspect the innovation vector and perform a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the effect of both processes as a function of various geomagnetic indices, solar wind parameters, and radial distance from the Earth. Our results are in agreement with previous studies that demonstrated the energy dependence of these two mechanisms. We show that EMIC wave scattering tends to dominate loss at lower L shells, and it may amount to between 10\%/hr and 30\%/hr of the maximum value of phase space density (PSD) over all L shells for fixed first and second adiabatic invariants. On the other hand, magnetopause shadowing is found to deplete electrons across all energies, mostly at higher L shells, resulting in loss from 50\%/hr to 70\%/hr of the maximum PSD. Nevertheless, during times of enhanced geomagnetic activity, both processes can operate beyond such location and encompass the entire outer radiation belt.},
language = {en}
}
@misc{CiemerRehmKurthsetal.2020,
author = {Ciemer, Catrin and Rehm, Lars and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Donner, Reik Volker and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Boers, Niklas},
title = {An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures},
series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
number = {9},
issn = {1866-8372},
doi = {10.25932/publishup-52586},
url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525863},
pages = {12},
year = {2020},
abstract = {Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.},
language = {en}
}
@article{CiemerRehmKurthsetal.2020,
author = {Ciemer, Catrin and Rehm, Lars and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Donner, Reik Volker and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Boers, Niklas},
title = {An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures},
series = {Environmental Research Letters},
volume = {15},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {9},
publisher = {IOP - Institute of Physics Publishing},
address = {Bristol},
pages = {10},
year = {2020},
abstract = {Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.},
language = {en}
}
@article{SeroussiNowickiPayneetal.2020,
author = {Seroussi, Helene and Nowicki, Sophie and Payne, Antony J. and Goelzer, Heiko and Lipscomb, William H. and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako and Agosta, Cecile and Albrecht, Torsten and Asay-Davis, Xylar and Barthel, Alice and Calov, Reinhard and Cullather, Richard and Dumas, Christophe and Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. and Gladstone, Rupert and Golledge, Nicholas R. and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Greve, Ralf and Hattermann, Tore and Hoffman, Matthew J. and Humbert, Angelika and Huybrechts, Philippe and Jourdain, Nicolas C. and Kleiner, Thomas and Larour, Eric and Leguy, Gunter R. and Lowry, Daniel P. and Little, Chistopher M. and Morlighem, Mathieu and Pattyn, Frank and Pelle, Tyler and Price, Stephen F. and Quiquet, Aurelien and Reese, Ronja and Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne and Shepherd, Andrew and Simon, Erika and Smith, Robin S. and Straneo, Fiammetta and Sun, Sainan and Trusel, Luke D. and Van Breedam, Jonas and van de Wal, Roderik S. W. and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Zhao, Chen and Zhang, Tong and Zwinger, Thomas},
title = {ISMIP6 Antarctica},
series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
volume = {14},
journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
number = {9},
publisher = {Copernicus},
address = {G{\"o}ttingen},
issn = {1994-0416},
doi = {10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020},
pages = {3033 -- 3070},
year = {2020},
abstract = {Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between 7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between 6 :1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.},
language = {en}
}
@article{ReeseLevermannAlbrechtetal.2020,
author = {Reese, Ronja and Levermann, Anders and Albrecht, Torsten and Seroussi, Helene and Winkelmann, Ricarda},
title = {The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model},
series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
volume = {14},
journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
number = {9},
publisher = {Copernicus},
address = {G{\"o}ttingen},
issn = {1994-0416},
doi = {10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020},
pages = {3097 -- 3110},
year = {2020},
abstract = {Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent acceleration of the inland ice streams are the major reasons for currently observed mass loss from Antarctica and are expected to become more important in the future. Here we show that for projections of future mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, it is essential (1) to better constrain the sensitivity of sub-shelf melt rates to ocean warming and (2) to include the historic trajectory of the ice sheet. In particular, we find that while the ice sheet response in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model is comparable to the median response of models in three Antarctic Ice Sheet Intercomparison projects - initMIP, LARMIP-2 and ISMIP6 - conducted with a range of ice sheet models, the projected 21st century sea level contribution differs significantly depending on these two factors. For the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, this leads to projected ice loss ranging from 1:4 to 4:0 cm of sea level equivalent in simulations in which ISMIP6 ocean forcing drives the PICO ocean box model where parameter tuning leads to a comparably low sub-shelf melt sensitivity and in which no surface forcing is applied. This is opposed to a likely range of 9:1 to 35:8 cm using the exact same initial setup, but emulated from the LARMIP-2 experiments with a higher melt sensitivity, even though both projects use forcing from climate models and melt rates are calibrated with previous oceanographic studies. Furthermore, using two initial states, one with a previous historic simulation from 1850 to 2014 and one starting from a steady state, we show that while differences between the ice sheet configurations in 2015 seem marginal at first sight, the historic simulation increases the susceptibility of the ice sheet to ocean warming, thereby increasing mass loss from 2015 to 2100 by 5\% to 50 \%. Hindcasting past ice sheet changes with numerical models would thus provide valuable tools to better constrain projections. Our results emphasize that the uncertainty that arises from the forcing is of the same order of magnitude as the ice dynamic response for future sea level projections.},
language = {en}
}
@article{ZeitzLevermannWinkelmann2020,
author = {Zeitz, Maria and Levermann, Anders and Winkelmann, Ricarda},
title = {Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry},
series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
volume = {14},
journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
number = {10},
publisher = {Copernicus},
address = {G{\"o}ttingen},
issn = {1994-0416},
doi = {10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020},
pages = {3537 -- 3550},
year = {2020},
abstract = {Acceleration of the flow of ice drives mass losses in both the Antarctic and the Greenland Ice Sheet. The projections of possible future sea-level rise rely on numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physics of ice flow, melt, and calving. While major advancements have been made by the ice-sheet modeling community in addressing several of the related uncertainties, the flow law, which is at the center of most process-based ice-sheet models, is not in the focus of the current scientific debate. However, recent studies show that the flow law parameters are highly uncertain and might be different from the widely accepted standard values. Here, we use an idealized flow-line setup to investigate how these uncertainties in the flow law translate into uncertainties in flow-driven mass loss. In order to disentangle the effect of future warming on the ice flow from other effects, we perform a suite of experiments with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), deliberately excluding changes in the surface mass balance. We find that changes in the flow parameters within the observed range can lead up to a doubling of the flow-driven mass loss within the first centuries of warming, compared to standard parameters. The spread of ice loss due to the uncertainty in flow parameters is on the same order of magnitude as the increase in mass loss due to surface warming. While this study focuses on an idealized flow-line geometry, it is likely that this uncertainty carries over to realistic three-dimensional simulations of Greenland and Antarctica.},
language = {en}
}
@article{AlbrechtWinkelmannLevermann2020,
author = {Albrecht, Torsten and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Levermann, Anders},
title = {Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)},
series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
volume = {14},
journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
number = {2},
publisher = {Copernicus Publ.},
address = {G{\"o}ttingen},
issn = {1994-0416},
doi = {10.5194/tc-14-633-2020},
pages = {633 -- 656},
year = {2020},
abstract = {The Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) is applied to the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last two glacial cycles (approximate to 210 000 years) with a resolution of 16 km. An ensemble of 256 model runs is analyzed in which four relevant model parameters have been systematically varied using full-factorial parameter sampling. Parameters and plausible parameter ranges have been identified in a companion paper (Albrecht et al., 2020) and are associated with ice dynamics, climatic forcing, basal sliding and bed deformation and represent distinct classes of model uncertainties. The model is scored against both modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding-line locations, elevation-age data, ice thickness, surface velocities and uplift rates. An aggregated score is computed for each ensemble member that measures the overall model-data misfit, including measurement uncertainty in terms of a Gaussian error model (Briggs and Tarasov, 2013). The statistical method used to analyze the ensemble simulation results follows closely the simple averaging method described in Pollard et al. (2016). This analysis reveals clusters of best-fit parameter combinations, and hence a likely range of relevant model and boundary parameters, rather than individual best-fit parameters. The ensemble of reconstructed histories of Antarctic Ice Sheet volumes provides a score-weighted likely range of sea-level contributions since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) of 9.4 +/- 4.1m (or 6.5 +/- 2.0 x 10(6) km(3)), which is at the upper range of most previous studies. The last deglaciation occurs in all ensemble simulations after around 12 000 years before present and hence after the meltwater pulse 1A (MWP1a). Our ensemble analysis also provides an estimate of parametric uncertainty bounds for the present-day state that can be used for PISM projections of future sea-level contributions from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.},
language = {en}
}
@article{GarbeAlbrechtLevermannetal.2020,
author = {Garbe, Julius and Albrecht, Torsten and Levermann, Anders and Donges, Jonathan and Winkelmann, Ricarda},
title = {The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet},
series = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science},
volume = {585},
journal = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science},
number = {7826},
publisher = {Macmillan Publishers Limited},
address = {Berlin},
issn = {0028-0836},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5},
pages = {538 -- 544},
year = {2020},
abstract = {More than half of Earth's freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions(1). Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth give rise to potential nonlinearities in its response to temperature changes. So far, we are lacking a comprehensive stability analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet for different amounts of global warming. Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible. Consistent with palaeodata(2)we find, using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model(3-5), that at global warming levels around 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, West Antarctica is committed to long-term partial collapse owing to the marine ice-sheet instability. Between 6 and 9 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, the loss of more than 70 per cent of the present-day ice volume is triggered, mainly caused by the surface elevation feedback. At more than 10 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, Antarctica is committed to become virtually ice-free. The ice sheet's temperature sensitivity is 1.3 metres of sea-level equivalent per degree of warming up to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, almost doubling to 2.4 metres per degree of warming between 2 and 6 degrees and increasing to about 10 metres per degree of warming between 6 and 9 degrees. Each of these thresholds gives rise to hysteresis behaviour: that is, the currently observed ice-sheet configuration is not regained even if temperatures are reversed to present-day levels. In particular, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does not regrow to its modern extent until temperatures are at least one degree Celsius lower than pre-industrial levels. Our results show that if the Paris Agreement is not met, Antarctica's long-term sea-level contribution will dramatically increase and exceed that of all other sources.
Modelling shows that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits multiple temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss would become irreversible, and once melted, the ice sheet can regain its previous mass only if the climate cools well below pre-industrial temperatures.},
language = {en}
}
@article{WunderlingWilleitDongesetal.2020,
author = {Wunderling, Nico and Willeit, Matteo and Donges, Jonathan and Winkelmann, Ricarda},
title = {Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice},
series = {Nature Communications},
volume = {11},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
address = {Berlin},
issn = {2041-1723},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3},
pages = {14},
year = {2020},
abstract = {Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C (interquartile range: 0.39-0.46 degrees C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55\%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30\%) and cloud feedbacks (15\%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. The disintegration of cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctica is associated with temperature and radiative feedbacks. In this work, the authors quantify these feedbacks and find an additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C.},
language = {en}
}