@article{WangShpritsZhelayskayaetal.2019, author = {Wang, Dedong and Shprits, Yuri and Zhelayskaya, Irina S. and Agapitov, Oleksiy and Drozdov, Alexander and Aseev, Nikita}, title = {Analytical chorus wave model derived from van Allen Probe Observations}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {124}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {2}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2018JA026183}, pages = {1063 -- 1084}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Chorus waves play an important role in the dynamic evolution of energetic electrons in the Earth's radiation belts and ring current. Using more than 5 years of Van Allen Probe data, we developed a new analytical model for upper-band chorus (UBC; 0.5fce < f < fce) and lower-band chorus (LBC; 0.05fce < f < 0.5fce) waves, where fce is the equatorial electron gyrofrequency. By applying polynomial fits to chorus wave root mean square amplitudes, we developed regression models for LBC and UBC as a function of geomagnetic activity (Kp), L, magnetic latitude (λ), and magnetic local time (MLT). Dependence on Kp is separated from the dependence on λ, L, and MLT as Kp-scaling law to simplify the calculation of diffusion coefficients and inclusion into particle tracing codes. Frequency models for UBC and LBC are also developed, which depends on MLT and magnetic latitude. This empirical model is valid in all MLTs, magnetic latitude up to 20°, Kp ≤ 6, L-shell range from 3.5 to 6 for LBC and from 4 to 6 for UBC. The dependence of root mean square amplitudes on L are different for different bands, which implies different energy sources for different wave bands. This analytical chorus wave model is convenient for inclusion in quasi-linear diffusion calculations of electron scattering rates and particle simulations in the inner magnetosphere, especially for the newly developed four-dimensional codes, which require significantly improved wave parameterizations.}, language = {en} } @article{SmirnovKronbergLatallerieetal.2019, author = {Smirnov, Artem G. and Kronberg, Elena A. and Latallerie, F. and Daly, Patrick W. and Aseev, Nikita and Shprits, Yuri and Kellerman, Adam C. and Kasahara, Satoshi and Turner, Drew L. and Taylor, M. G. G. T.}, title = {Electron Intensity Measurements by the Cluster/RAPID/IES Instrument in Earth's Radiation Belts and Ring Current}, series = {Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications}, volume = {17}, journal = {Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications}, number = {4}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {1542-7390}, doi = {10.1029/2018SW001989}, pages = {553 -- 566}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Plain Language Summary Radiation belts of the Earth, which are the zones of charged energetic particles trapped by the geomagnetic field, comprise enormous and dynamic systems. While the inner radiation belt, composed mainly of high-energy protons, is relatively stable, the outer belt, filled with energetic electrons, is highly variable and depends substantially on solar activity. Hence, extended reliable observations and the improved models of the electron intensities in the outer belt depending on solar wind parameters are necessary for prediction of their dynamics. The Cluster mission has been measuring electron flux intensities in the radiation belts since its launch in 2000, thus providing a huge dataset that can be used for radiation belts analysis. Using 16 years of electron measurements by the Cluster mission corrected for background contamination, we derived a uniform linear-logarithmic dependence of electron fluxes in the outer belt on the solar wind dynamic pressure.}, language = {en} } @article{DobyndeEffenbergerKartashovetal.2019, author = {Dobynde, M. I. and Effenberger, Frederic and Kartashov, D. A. and Shprits, Yuri and Shurshakov, V. A.}, title = {Ray-tracing simulation of the radiation dose distribution on the surface of the spherical phantom of the MATROSHKA-R experiment onboard the ISS}, series = {Life sciences in space research}, volume = {21}, journal = {Life sciences in space research}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {2214-5524}, doi = {10.1016/j.lssr.2019.04.001}, pages = {65 -- 72}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Space radiation is one of the main concerns for human space flights. The prediction of the radiation dose for the actual spacecraft geometry is very important for the planning of long-duration missions. We present a numerical method for the fast calculation of the radiation dose rate during a space flight. We demonstrate its application for dose calculations during the first and the second sessions of the MATROSHKA-R space experiment with a spherical tissue-equivalent phantom. The main advantage of the method is the short simulation time, so it can be applied for urgent radiation dose calculations for low-Earth orbit space missions. The method uses depth-dose curve and shield-and-composition distribution functions to calculate a radiation dose at the point of interest. The spacecraft geometry is processed into a shield-and-composition distribution function using a ray-tracing method. Depth-dose curves are calculated using the GEANT4 Monte-Carlo code (version 10.00.P02) for a double-layer aluminum-water shielding. Aluminum-water shielding is a good approximation of the real geometry, as water is a good equivalent for biological tissues, and aluminum is the major material of spacecraft bodies.}, language = {en} } @article{ZhuChenLiuetal.2019, author = {Zhu, Hui and Chen, Lunjin and Liu, Xu and Shprits, Yuri}, title = {Modulation of locally generated equatorial noise by ULF wave}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {124}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {4}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2018JA026199}, pages = {2779 -- 2787}, year = {2019}, abstract = {In this paper we report a rare and fortunate event of fast magnetosonic (MS, also called equatorial noise) waves modulated by compressional ultralow frequency (ULF) waves measured by Van Allen Probes. The characteristics of MS waves, ULF waves, proton distribution, and their potential correlations are analyzed. The results show that ULF waves can modulate the energetic ring proton distribution and in turn modulate the MS generation. Furthermore, the variation of MS intensities is attributed to not only ULF wave activities but also the variation of background parameters, for example, number density. The results confirm the opinion that MS waves are generated by proton ring distribution and propose a new modulation phenomenon.}, language = {en} } @article{ShpritsMeniettiDrozdovetal.2018, author = {Shprits, Yuri and Menietti, J. D. and Drozdov, Alexander and Horne, Richard B. and Woodfield, Emma E. and Groene, J. B. and de Soria-Santacruz, M. and Averkamp, T. F. and Garrett, H. and Paranicas, C. and Gurnett, Don A.}, title = {Strong whistler mode waves observed in the vicinity of Jupiter's moons}, series = {Nature Communications}, volume = {9}, journal = {Nature Communications}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2041-1723}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-05431-x}, pages = {6}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Understanding of wave environments is critical for the understanding of how particles are accelerated and lost in space. This study shows that in the vicinity of Europa and Ganymede, that respectively have induced and internal magnetic fields, chorus wave power is significantly increased. The observed enhancements are persistent and exceed median values of wave activity by up to 6 orders of magnitude for Ganymede. Produced waves may have a pronounced effect on the acceleration and loss of particles in the Jovian magnetosphere and other astrophysical objects. The generated waves are capable of significantly modifying the energetic particle environment, accelerating particles to very high energies, or producing depletions in phase space density. Observations of Jupiter's magnetosphere provide a unique opportunity to observe how objects with an internal magnetic field can interact with particles trapped in magnetic fields of larger scale objects.}, language = {en} } @misc{ShpritsAngelopoulosRusselletal.2017, author = {Shprits, Yuri and Angelopoulos, V. and Russell, C. T. and Strangeway, R. J. and Runov, A. and Turner, D. and Caron, R. and Cruce, P. and Leneman, D. and Michaelis, I. and Petrov, V. and Panasyuk, M. and Yashin, I. and Drozdov, Alexander and Russell, C. L. and Kalegaev, V. and Nazarkov, I. and Clemmons, J. H.}, title = {Scientific Objectives of Electron Losses and Fields INvestigation Onboard Lomonosov Satellite}, series = {Space science reviews}, volume = {214}, journal = {Space science reviews}, number = {1}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0038-6308}, doi = {10.1007/s11214-017-0455-4}, pages = {19}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The objective of the Electron Losses and Fields INvestigation on board the Lomonosov satellite ( ELFIN-L) project is to determine the energy spectrum of precipitating energetic electrons and ions and, together with other polar-orbiting and equatorial missions, to better understand the mechanisms responsible for scattering these particles into the atmosphere. This mission will provide detailed measurements of the radiation environment at low altitudes. The 400-500 km sun-synchronous orbit of Lomonosov is ideal for observing electrons and ions precipitating into the atmosphere. This mission provides a unique opportunity to test the instruments. Similar suite of instruments will be flown in the future NSF-and NASA-supported spinning CubeSat ELFIN satellites which will augment current measurements by providing detailed information on pitch-angle distributions of precipitating and trapped particles.}, language = {en} } @misc{ShpritsZhelavskayaGreenetal.2018, author = {Shprits, Yuri and Zhelavskaya, Irina and Green, Janet C. and Pulkkinen, Antti A. and Horne, Richard B. and Pitchford, David and Glover, Alexi}, title = {Discussions on Stakeholder Requirements for Space Weather-Related Models}, series = {Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications}, volume = {16}, journal = {Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications}, number = {4}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {1542-7390}, doi = {10.1002/2018SW001864}, pages = {341 -- 342}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Participants of the 2017 European Space Weather Week in Ostend, Belgium, discussed the stakeholder requirements for space weather-related models. It was emphasized that stakeholders show an increased interest in space weather-related models. Participants of the meeting discussed particular prediction indicators that can provide first-order estimates of the impact of space weather on engineering systems.}, language = {en} } @misc{ShpritsHorneKellermanetal.2018, author = {Shprits, Yuri and Horne, Richard B. and Kellerman, Adam C. and Drozdov, Alexander}, title = {The dynamics of Van Allen belts revisited}, series = {Nature physics}, volume = {14}, journal = {Nature physics}, number = {2}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {1745-2473}, doi = {10.1038/nphys4350}, pages = {102 -- 103}, year = {2018}, abstract = {In an effort to explain the formation of a narrow third radiation belt at ultra-relativistic energies detected during a solar storm in September 20121, Mann et al.2 present simulations from which they conclude it arises from a process of outward radial diffusion alone, without the need for additional loss processes from higher frequency waves. The comparison of observations with the model in Figs 2 and 3 of their Article clearly shows that even with strong radial diffusion rates, the model predicts a third belt near L* = 3 that is twice as wide as observed and approximately an order of magnitude more intense. We therefore disagree with their interpretation that "the agreement between the absolute fluxes from the model and those observed by REPT [the Relativistic Electron Proton Telescope] shown on Figs 2 and 3 is excellent." Previous studies3 have shown that outward radial diffusion plays a very important role in the dynamics of the outer belt and is capable of explaining rapid reductions in the electron flux. It has also been shown that it can produce remnant belts (Fig. 2 of a long-term simulation study4). However, radial diffusion alone cannot explain the formation of the narrow third belt at multi-MeV during September 2012. An additional loss mechanism is required. Higher radial diffusion rates cannot improve the comparison of model presented by Mann et al. with observations. A further increase in the radial diffusion rates (reported in Fig. 4 of the Supplementary Information of ref. 2) results in the overestimation of the outer belt fluxes by up to three orders of magnitude at energy of 3.4 MeV. Observations at 2 MeV, where belts show only a two-zone structure, were not presented by Mann et al. Moreover, simulations of electrons with energies below 2 MeV with the same diffusion rates and boundary conditions used by the authors would probably produce very strong depletions down to L = 3-3.5, where L is radial distance from the centre of the Earth to the given field line in the equatorial plane. Observations do not show a non-adiabatic loss below L ∼ 4.5 for 2 MeV. Such different dynamics between 2 MeV and above 4 MeV at around L = 3.5 are another indication that particles are scattered by electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves that affect only energies above a certain threshold. Observations of the phase space density (PSD) provide additional evidence for the local loss of electrons. Around L* = 3.5-4 PSD shows significant decrease by an order of magnitude starting in the afternoon of 3 September (Fig. 1a), while PSD above L* = 4 is increasing. The minimum in PSD between L* = 3.5-4 continues to decrease until 4 September. This evolution demonstrates that the loss is not produced by outward diffusion. Radial diffusion cannot produce deepening minima, as it works to smooth gradients. Just as growing peaks in PSD show the presence of localized acceleration5, deepening minima show the presence of localized loss. Figure 1: Time evolution of radiation profiles in electron PSD at relativistic and ultra-relativistic energies. figure 1 a, Similar to Supplementary Fig. 3 of ref. 2, but using TS07D model10 and for μ = 2,500 MeV G-1, K = 0.05 RE G0.5 (where RE is the radius of the Earth). b, Similar to Supplementary Fig. 3 of ref. 2, but using TS07D model and for μ = 700 MeV G-1, corresponding to MeV energies in the heart of the belt. Minimum in PSD in the heart of the multi-MeV electron radiation belt between 3.5 and 4 RE deepening between the afternoon of 3 September and 5 September clearly show that the narrow remnant belt at multi-MeV below 3.5 RE is produced by the local loss. Full size image The minimum in the outer boundary is reached on the evening of 2 September. After that, the outer boundary moves up, while the minimum decreases by approximately an order of magnitude, clearly showing that this main decrease cannot be explained by outward diffusion, and requires additional loss processes. The analysis of profiles of PSD is a standard tool used, for example, in the study about electron acceleration5 and routinely used by the entire Van Allen Probes team. In the Supplementary Information, we show that this analysis is validated by using different magnetic field models. The Supplementary Information also shows that measurements are above background noise. Deepening minima at multi-MeV during the times when the boundary flux increases are clearly seen in Fig. 1a. They show that there must be localized loss, as radial diffusion cannot produce a minimum that becomes lower with time. At lower energies of 1-2 MeV, which corresponds to lower values of the first adiabatic invariant μ (Fig. 1b), the profiles are monotonic between L* = 3-3.5, consistent with the absence of scattering by EMIC waves that affect only electrons above a certain energy threshold6,7,8,9. In summary, the results of the modelling and observations presented by Mann et al. do not lend support to the claim of explaining the dynamics of the ultra-relativistic third Van Allen radiation belt in terms of an outward radial diffusion process alone. While the outward radial diffusion driven by the loss to the magnetopause2 is certainly operating during this storm, there is compelling observational and modelling2,6 evidence that shows that very efficient localized electron loss operates during this storm at multi-MeV energies, consistent with localized loss produced by EMIC waves.}, language = {en} } @article{CervantesVillaShpritsAseevetal.2020, author = {Cervantes Villa, Juan Sebastian and Shprits, Yuri and Aseev, Nikita and Allison, Hayley J.}, title = {Quantifying the effects of EMIC wave scattering and magnetopause shadowing in the outer electron radiation belt by means of data assimilation}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {125}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {8}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2020JA028208}, pages = {23}, year = {2020}, abstract = {In this study we investigate two distinct loss mechanisms responsible for the rapid dropouts of radiation belt electrons by assimilating data from Van Allen Probes A and B and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 13 and 15 into a 3-D diffusion model. In particular, we examine the respective contribution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering and magnetopause shadowing for values of the first adiabatic invariant mu ranging from 300 to 3,000 MeV G(-1). We inspect the innovation vector and perform a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the effect of both processes as a function of various geomagnetic indices, solar wind parameters, and radial distance from the Earth. Our results are in agreement with previous studies that demonstrated the energy dependence of these two mechanisms. We show that EMIC wave scattering tends to dominate loss at lower L shells, and it may amount to between 10\%/hr and 30\%/hr of the maximum value of phase space density (PSD) over all L shells for fixed first and second adiabatic invariants. On the other hand, magnetopause shadowing is found to deplete electrons across all energies, mostly at higher L shells, resulting in loss from 50\%/hr to 70\%/hr of the maximum PSD. Nevertheless, during times of enhanced geomagnetic activity, both processes can operate beyond such location and encompass the entire outer radiation belt.}, language = {en} } @article{KimShprits2018, author = {Kim, Kyung-Chan and Shprits, Yuri}, title = {Survey of the Favorable Conditions for Magnetosonic Wave Excitation}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {123}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {1}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1002/2017JA024865}, pages = {400 -- 413}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The ratio of the proton ring velocity (VR) to the local Alfven speed (VA), in addition to proton ring distributions, plays a key factor in the excitation of magnetosonic waves at frequencies between the proton cyclotron frequency fcp and the lower hybrid resonance frequency fLHR in the Earth's magnetosphere. Here we investigate whether there is a statistically significant relationship between occurrences of proton rings and magnetosonic waves both outside and inside the plasmapause using particle and wave data from Van Allen Probe-A during the time period of October 2012 to December 2015. We also perform a statistical survey of the ratio of the ring energy (ER, corresponding to VR) to the Alfven energy (EA, corresponding to VA) to determine the favorable conditions under which magnetosonic waves in each of two frequency bands (fcp < f ≤ 0.5 fLHR and 0.5 fLHR < f < fLHR) can be excited. The results show that the magnetosonic waves in both frequency bands occur around the postnoon (12-18 magnetic local time, MLT) sector outside the plasmapause when ER is comparable to or lower than EA, and those in lower-frequency bands (fcp < f ≤ 0.5 fLHR) occur around the postnoon sector inside the plasmapause when ER/EA > ~9. However, there is one discrepancy between occurrences of proton rings and magnetosonic waves in low-frequency bands around the prenoon sector (6-12 MLT) outside the plasmapause, which suggests either that the waves may have propagated during active time from the postnoon sector after being excited during quiet time, or they may have locally excited in the prenoon sector during active time.}, language = {en} } @article{ShpritsKellermanAseevetal.2017, author = {Shprits, Yuri and Kellerman, Adam C . and Aseev, Nikita and Drozdov, Alexander and Michaelis, Ingo}, title = {Multi-MeV electron loss in the heart of the radiation belts}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {44}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, number = {3}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1002/2016GL072258}, pages = {1204 -- 1209}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Significant progress has been made in recent years in understanding acceleration mechanisms in the Earth's radiation belts. In particular, a number of studies demonstrated the importance of the local acceleration by analyzing the radial profiles of phase space density (PSD) and observing building up peaks in PSD. In this study, we focus on understanding of the local loss using very similar tools. The profiles of PSD for various values of the first adiabatic invariants during the previously studied 17 January 2013 storm are presented and discussed. The profiles of PSD show clear deepening minimums consistent with the scattering by electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves. Long-term evolution shows that local minimums in PSD can persist for relatively long times. During considered interval of time the deepening minimums were observed around L* = 4 during 17 January 2013 storm and around L* = 3.5 during 1 March 2013 storm. This study shows a new method that can help identify the location, magnitude, and time of the local loss and will help quantify local loss in the future. This study also provides additional clear and definitive evidence that local loss plays a major role for the dynamics of the multi-MeV electrons.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Maiti2023, author = {Maiti, Snehanshu}, title = {Magnetohydrodynamic turbulence and cosmic ray transport}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-58903}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-589030}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {vii, 81}, year = {2023}, abstract = {The first part of the thesis studies the properties of fast mode in magneto hydro-dynamic (MHD) turbulence. 1D and 3D numerical simulations are carried out to generate decaying fast mode MHD turbulence. The injection of waves are carried out in a collinear and isotropic fashion to generate fast mode turbulence. The properties of fast mode turbulence are analyzed by studying their energy spectral density, 2D structure functions and energy decay/cascade time. The injection wave vector is varied to study the dependence of the above properties on the injection wave vectors. The 1D energy spectrum obtained for the velocity and magnetic fields has 𝐸 (𝑘) ∝ 𝑘-2. The 2D energy spectrum and 2D structure functions in parallel and perpendicular directions shows that fast mode turbulence generated is isotropic in nature. The cascade/decay rate of fast mode MHD turbulence is proportional to 𝑘-0.5 for different kinds of wave vector injection. Simulations are also carried out in 1D and 3D to compare balanced and imbalanced turbulence. The results obtained shows that while 1D imbalanced turbulence decays faster than 1D balanced turbulence, there is no difference in the decay of 3D balanced and imbalanced turbulence for the current resolution of 512 grid points. "The second part of the thesis studies cosmic ray (CR) transport in driven MHD turbulence and is strongly dependent on it's properties. Test particle simulations are carried out to study CR interaction with both total MHD turbulence and decomposed MHD modes. The spatial diffusion coefficients and the pitch angle scattering diffusion coefficients are calculated from the test particle trajectories in turbulence. The results confirms that the fast modes dominate the CR propagation, whereas Alfv{\´e}n, slow modes are much less efficient with similar pitch angle scattering rates. The cross field transport on large and small scales are investigated next. On large/global scales, normal diffusion is observed and the diffusion coefficient is suppressed by 𝑀𝜁𝐴 compared to the parallel diffusion coefficients, with 𝜁 closer to 4 in Alfv{\´e}n modes than that in total turbulence as theoretically expected. For the CR transport on scales smaller than the turbulence injection scale 𝐿, both the local and global magnetic reference frames are adopted. Super diffusion is observed on such small scales in all the cases. Particularly, CR transport in Alfv{\´e}n modes show clear Richardson diffusion in the local reference frame. The diffusion transition smoothly from the Richardson's one with index 1.5 to normal diffusion as particle's mean free path decreases from 𝜆∥ ≫ 𝐿 to 𝜆∥ ≪ 𝐿. These results have broad applications to CRs in various astrophysical environments".}, language = {en} } @article{AdolfsHoqueShprits2022, author = {Adolfs, Marjolijn and Hoque, Mohammed Mainul and Shprits, Yuri}, title = {Storm-time relative total electron content modelling using machine learning techniques}, series = {Remote sensing}, volume = {14}, journal = {Remote sensing}, number = {23}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2072-4292}, doi = {10.3390/rs14236155}, pages = {17}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Accurately predicting total electron content (TEC) during geomagnetic storms is still a challenging task for ionospheric models. In this work, a neural-network (NN)-based model is proposed which predicts relative TEC with respect to the preceding 27-day median TEC, during storm time for the European region (with longitudes 30 degrees W-50 degrees E and latitudes 32.5 degrees N-70 degrees N). The 27-day median TEC (referred to as median TEC), latitude, longitude, universal time, storm time, solar radio flux index F10.7, global storm index SYM-H and geomagnetic activity index Hp30 are used as inputs and the output of the network is the relative TEC. The relative TEC can be converted to the actual TEC knowing the median TEC. The median TEC is calculated at each grid point over the European region considering data from the last 27 days before the storm using global ionosphere maps (GIMs) from international GNSS service (IGS) sources. A storm event is defined when the storm time disturbance index Dst drops below 50 nanotesla. The model was trained with storm-time relative TEC data from the time period of 1998 until 2019 (2015 is excluded) and contains 365 storms. Unseen storm data from 33 storm events during 2015 and 2020 were used to test the model. The UQRG GIMs were used because of their high temporal resolution (15 min) compared to other products from different analysis centers. The NN-based model predictions show the seasonal behavior of the storms including positive and negative storm phases during winter and summer, respectively, and show a mixture of both phases during equinoxes. The model's performance was also compared with the Neustrelitz TEC model (NTCM) and the NN-based quiet-time TEC model, both developed at the German Aerospace Agency (DLR). The storm model has a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 3.38 TEC units (TECU), which is an improvement by 1.87 TECU compared to the NTCM, where an RMSE of 5.25 TECU was found. This improvement corresponds to a performance increase by 35.6\%. The storm-time model outperforms the quiet-time model by 1.34 TECU, which corresponds to a performance increase by 28.4\% from 4.72 to 3.38 TECU. The quiet-time model was trained with Carrington averaged TEC and, therefore, is ideal to be used as an input instead of the GIM derived 27-day median. We found an improvement by 0.8 TECU which corresponds to a performance increase by 17\% from 4.72 to 3.92 TECU for the storm-time model using the quiet-time-model predicted TEC as an input compared to solely using the quiet-time model.}, language = {en} } @article{SmirnovBerrendorfShpritsetal.2020, author = {Smirnov, Artem and Berrendorf, Max and Shprits, Yuri and Kronberg, Elena A. and Allison, Hayley J. and Aseev, Nikita and Zhelavskaya, Irina and Morley, Steven K. and Reeves, Geoffrey D. and Carver, Matthew R. and Effenberger, Frederic}, title = {Medium energy electron flux in earth's outer radiation belt (MERLIN)}, series = {Space weather : the international journal of research and applications}, volume = {18}, journal = {Space weather : the international journal of research and applications}, number = {11}, publisher = {American geophysical union, AGU}, address = {Washington}, issn = {1542-7390}, doi = {10.1029/2020SW002532}, pages = {20}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120-600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.}, language = {en} } @article{CervantesVillaShpritsAseevetal.2019, author = {Cervantes Villa, Juan Sebastian and Shprits, Yuri and Aseev, Nikita and Drozdov, Alexander and Castillo Tibocha, Angelica Maria and Stolle, Claudia}, title = {Identifying radiation belt electron source and loss processes by assimilating spacecraft data in a three-dimensional diffusion model}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {125}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {1}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2019JA027514}, pages = {16}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Data assimilation aims to blend incomplete and inaccurate data with physics-based dynamical models. In the Earth's radiation belts, it is used to reconstruct electron phase space density, and it has become an increasingly important tool in validating our current understanding of radiation belt dynamics, identifying new physical processes, and predicting the near-Earth hazardous radiation environment. In this study, we perform reanalysis of the sparse measurements from four spacecraft using the three-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt diffusion model and a split-operator Kalman filter over a 6-month period from 1 October 2012 to 1 April 2013. In comparison to previous works, our 3-D model accounts for more physical processes, namely, mixed pitch angle-energy diffusion, scattering by Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron waves, and magnetopause shadowing. We describe how data assimilation, by means of the innovation vector, can be used to account for missing physics in the model. We use this method to identify the radial distances from the Earth and the geomagnetic conditions where our model is inconsistent with the measured phase space density for different values of the invariants mu and K. As a result, the Kalman filter adjusts the predictions in order to match the observations, and we interpret this as evidence of where and when additional source or loss processes are active. The current work demonstrates that 3-D data assimilation provides a comprehensive picture of the radiation belt electrons and is a crucial step toward performing reanalysis using measurements from ongoing and future missions.}, language = {en} } @article{SmirnovShpritsAllisonetal.2022, author = {Smirnov, Artem and Shprits, Yuri and Allison, Hayley and Aseev, Nikita and Drozdov, Alexander and Kollmann, Peter and Wang, Dedong and Saikin, Anthony}, title = {An empirical model of the equatorial electron pitch angle distributions in earth's outer radiation belt}, series = {Space Weather: the International Journal of Research and Applications}, volume = {20}, journal = {Space Weather: the International Journal of Research and Applications}, number = {9}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington, DC}, issn = {1542-7390}, doi = {10.1029/2022SW003053}, pages = {17}, year = {2022}, abstract = {In this study, we present an empirical model of the equatorial electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) in the outer radiation belt based on the full data set collected by the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) instrument onboard the Van Allen Probes in 2012-2019. The PADs are fitted with a combination of the first, third and fifth sine harmonics. The resulting equation resolves all PAD types found in the outer radiation belt (pancake, flat-top, butterfly and cap PADs) and can be analytically integrated to derive omnidirectional flux. We introduce a two-step modeling procedure that for the first time ensures a continuous dependence on L, magnetic local time and activity, parametrized by the solar wind dynamic pressure. We propose two methods to reconstruct equatorial electron flux using the model. The first approach requires two uni-directional flux observations and is applicable to low-PA data. The second method can be used to reconstruct the full equatorial PADs from a single uni- or omnidirectional measurement at off-equatorial latitudes. The model can be used for converting the long-term data sets of electron fluxes to phase space density in terms of adiabatic invariants, for physics-based modeling in the form of boundary conditions, and for data assimilation purposes.}, language = {en} } @article{WalkerBoyntonShpritsetal.2022, author = {Walker, Simon N. and Boynton, Richard J. and Shprits, Yuri and Balikhin, Michael A. and Drozdov, Alexander}, title = {Forecast of the energetic electron environment of the radiation belts}, series = {Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications}, volume = {20}, journal = {Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications}, number = {12}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {1542-7390}, doi = {10.1029/2022SW003124}, pages = {21}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Different modeling methodologies possess different strengths and weakness. For instance, data based models may provide superior accuracy but have a limited spatial coverage while physics based models may provide lower accuracy but provide greater spatial coverage. This study investigates the coupling of a data based model of the electron fluxes at geostationary orbit (GEO) with a numerical model of the radiation belt region to improve the resulting forecasts/pastcasts of electron fluxes over the whole radiation belt region. In particular, two coupling methods are investigated. The first assumes an average value for L* for GEO, namely LGEO* L-GEO* = 6.2. The second uses a value of L* that varies with geomagnetic activity, quantified using the Kp index. As the terrestrial magnetic field responds to variations in geomagnetic activity, the value of L* will vary for a specific location. In this coupling method, the value of L* is calculated using the Kp driven Tsyganenko 89c magnetic field model for field line tracing. It is shown that this addition can result in changes in the initialization of the parameters at the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt model outer boundary. Model outputs are compared to Van Allen Probes MagEIS measurements of the electron fluxes in the inner magnetosphere for the March 2015 geomagnetic storm. It is found that the fixed LGEO* L-GEO* coupling method produces a more realistic forecast.}, language = {en} } @article{ProlSmirnovHoqueetal.2022, author = {Prol, Fabricio S. and Smirnov, Artem G. and Hoque, M. Mainul and Shprits, Yuri}, title = {Combined model of topside ionosphere and plasmasphere derived from radio-occultation and Van Allen Probes data}, series = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, journal = {Scientific reports}, number = {1}, publisher = {Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature}, address = {London}, issn = {2045-2322}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-022-13302-1}, pages = {11}, year = {2022}, abstract = {In the last years, electron density profile functions characterized by a linear dependence on the scale height showed good results when approximating the topside ionosphere. The performance above 800 km, however, is not yet well investigated. This study investigates the capability of the semi-Epstein functions to represent electron density profiles from the peak height up to 20,000 km. Electron density observations recorded by the Van Allen Probes were used to resolve the scale height dependence in the plasmasphere. It was found that the linear dependence of the scale height in the topside ionosphere cannot be directly used to extrapolate profiles above 800 km. We find that the dependence of scale heights on altitude is quadratic in the plasmasphere. A statistical model of the scale heights is therefore proposed. After combining the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere by a unified model, we have obtained good estimations not only in the profile shapes, but also in the Total Electron Content magnitude and distributions when compared to actual measurements from 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017. Our investigation shows that Van Allen Probes can be merged to radio-occultation data to properly represent the upper ionosphere and plasmasphere by means of a semi-Epstein function.}, language = {en} } @article{HaasShpritsAllisonetal.2022, author = {Haas, Bernhard and Shprits, Yuri and Allison, Hayley and Wutzig, Michael and Wang, Dedong}, title = {Which parameter controls ring current electron dynamics}, series = {Frontiers in astronomy and space sciences}, volume = {9}, journal = {Frontiers in astronomy and space sciences}, publisher = {Frontiers Media}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {2296-987X}, doi = {10.3389/fspas.2022.911002}, pages = {11}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Predicting the electron population of Earth's ring current during geomagnetic storms still remains a challenging task. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of 10 keV ring current electrons to different driving processes, parameterised by the Kp index, during several moderate and intense storms. Results are validated against measurements from the Van Allen Probes satellites. Perturbing the Kp index allows us to identify the most dominant processes for moderate and intense storms respectively. We find that during moderate storms (Kp < 6) the drift velocities mostly control the behaviour of low energy electrons, while loss from wave-particle interactions is the most critical parameter for quantifying the evolution of intense storms (Kp > 6). Perturbations of the Kp index used to drive the boundary conditions at GEO and set the plasmapause location only show a minimal effect on simulation results over a limited L range. It is further shown that the flux at L \& SIM; 3 is more sensitive to changes in the Kp index compared to higher L shells, making it a good proxy for validating the source-loss balance of a ring current model.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Aseev2020, author = {Aseev, Nikita}, title = {Modeling and understanding dynamics of charged particles in the Earth's inner magnetosphere}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-47921}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-479211}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {xxii, 154}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The Earth's inner magnetosphere is a very dynamic system, mostly driven by the external solar wind forcing exerted upon the magnetic field of our planet. Disturbances in the solar wind, such as coronal mass ejections and co-rotating interaction regions, cause geomagnetic storms, which lead to prominent changes in charged particle populations of the inner magnetosphere - the plasmasphere, ring current, and radiation belts. Satellites operating in the regions of elevated energetic and relativistic electron fluxes can be damaged by deep dielectric or surface charging during severe space weather events. Predicting the dynamics of the charged particles and mitigating their effects on the infrastructure is of particular importance, due to our increasing reliance on space technologies. The dynamics of particles in the plasmasphere, ring current, and radiation belts are strongly coupled by means of collisions and collisionless interactions with electromagnetic fields induced by the motion of charged particles. Multidimensional numerical models simplify the treatment of transport, acceleration, and loss processes of these particles, and allow us to predict how the near-Earth space environment responds to solar storms. The models inevitably rely on a number of simplifications and assumptions that affect model accuracy and complicate the interpretation of the results. In this dissertation, we quantify the processes that control electron dynamics in the inner magnetosphere, paying particular attention to the uncertainties of the employed numerical codes and tools. We use a set of convenient analytical solutions for advection and diffusion equations to test the accuracy and stability of the four-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB-4D) code. We show that numerical schemes implemented in the code converge to the analytical solutions and that the VERB-4D code demonstrates stable behavior independent of the assumed time step. The order of the numerical scheme for the convection equation is demonstrated to affect results of ring current and radiation belt simulations, and it is crucially important to use high-order numerical schemes to decrease numerical errors in the model. Using the thoroughly tested VERB-4D code, we model the dynamics of the ring current electrons during the 17 March 2013 storm. The discrepancies between the model and observations above 4.5 Earth's radii can be explained by uncertainties in the outer boundary conditions. Simulation results indicate that the electrons were transported from the geostationary orbit towards the Earth by the global-scale electric and magnetic fields. We investigate how simulation results depend on the input models and parameters. The model is shown to be particularly sensitive to the global electric field and electron lifetimes below 4.5 Earth's radii. The effects of radial diffusion and subauroral polarization streams are also quantified. We developed a data-assimilative code that blends together a convection model of energetic electron transport and loss and Van Allen Probes satellite data by means of the Kalman filter. We show that the Kalman filter can correct model uncertainties in the convection electric field, electron lifetimes, and boundary conditions. It is also demonstrated how the innovation vector - the difference between observations and model prediction - can be used to identify physical processes missing in the model of energetic electron dynamics. We computed radial profiles of phase space density of ultrarelativistic electrons, using Van Allen Probes measurements. We analyze the shape of the profiles during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed times and show that the formation of new local minimums in the radial profiles coincides with the ground observations of electromagnetic ion-cyclotron (EMIC) waves. This correlation indicates that EMIC waves are responsible for the loss of ultrarelativistic electrons from the heart of the outer radiation belt into the Earth's atmosphere.}, language = {en} }