@techreport{Doerfler2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {D{\"o}rfler, Thomas}, title = {Interface challenges of UN sanctions with forums of export control}, series = {International sanctions: improving implementation through better interface management}, journal = {International sanctions: improving implementation through better interface management}, editor = {Lohmann, Sascha and Vorrath, Judith}, publisher = {Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik}, address = {Berlin}, pages = {23 -- 31}, year = {2021}, language = {en} } @techreport{SchwabKrauseMassoud2023, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Schwab, Regine and Krause, Werner and Massoud, Samer}, title = {The bombing of hospitals and local violence dynamics in civil wars}, series = {HiCN Working paper}, volume = {403}, journal = {HiCN Working paper}, publisher = {Households in Conflict Network}, address = {Berlin}, pages = {89}, year = {2023}, abstract = {The impact of civilian harm on strategic outcomes in war has been the subject of persistent debate. However, the literature has primarily focused on civilian casualties, thereby overlooking the targeting of civilian infrastructure, which is a recurrent phenomenon during war. This study fills this gap by examining the targeting of healthcare, one of the most indispensable infrastructures during war and peace time. We contend that attacks on medical facilities are distinct from direct violence against civilians. Because they are typically unrelated to military dynamics, the targeting of hospitals is a highly visible form and powerful signal of civilian victimization. To assess its effects, we analyze newly collected data on such attacks by pro-government forces and event data on combat activities in Northwest Syria (2017-2020). Applying a new approach for panel data analysis that combines matching methods with a difference-in-differences estimation, we examine the causal effect of counterinsurgent bombings on subsequent violent events. Distinguishing between regime-initiated and insurgent-initiated combat activities and their associated fatalities, we find that the targeting of hospitals increases insurgent violence. We supplement the quantitative analysis with unique qualitative evidence derived from interviews, which demonstrates that hospital bombings induce rebels to resist more fiercely through two mechanisms: intrinsic motivations and civilian pressure. The results have important implications for the effects of state-led violence and the strength of legal norms that protect noncombatants.}, language = {en} } @techreport{DebreSommerer2023, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Debre, Maria Josepha and Sommerer, Thomas}, title = {Weathering the storm?}, series = {IGCC series on authoritarian regimes and international organizations}, journal = {IGCC series on authoritarian regimes and international organizations}, publisher = {UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation}, address = {La Jolla, CA}, pages = {38}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Democratization scholars are currently debating if we are indeed witnessing a third wave of autocratization. While this has led to an extensive debate about the future of the liberal international order, we still know relatively little about the consequences of autocratization for international organizations (IOs). In this article, we explore to what extent autocratization has led to changes in the composition of IO membership. We propose three different ways of conceptualizing autocratization of IO membership. We argue that we should move away from a dichotomous understanding of regime type and regime change, but rather focus on composition of subregime types to understand current developments. We build on updated membership data for 73 IOs through 2020 to map membership configurations based on the V-Dem Electoral Democracy Index. Contrary to current debates on the crisis of the liberal order, we find that many IOs are not (yet) affected by broad autocratization of their membership that would endanger democratic majorities or overall democratic densities. However, we also observe the disappearance of formerly homogenous democratic clubs due to democratic backsliding in a number of European and Latin American IO member states, as well as a return of autocratic clubs in Southeast Asia and Southern Africa. These findings have important implications for the broader research agenda on international democracy promotion and human right protection as well as the study of legitimacy and the effectiveness of international organizations.}, language = {en} }