@article{FrielerSchaubergerArnethetal.2017,
  author    = {Frieler, Katja and Schauberger, Bernhard and Arneth, Almut and Balkovic, Juraj and Chryssanthacopoulos, James and Deryng, Delphine and Elliott, Joshua and Folberth, Christian and Khabarov, Nikolay and M{\"u}ller, Christoph and Olin, Stefan and Pugh, Thomas A. M. and Schaphoff, Sibyll and Schewe, Jacob and Schmid, Erwin and Warszawski, Lila and Levermann, Anders},
  title     = {Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability},
  series = {Earths future},
  volume    = {5},
  journal   = {Earths future},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {2328-4277},
  doi       = {10.1002/2016EF000525},
  pages     = {605 -- 616},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here, we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50\% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50\% in seven countries, including the United States. The explained variance exceeds 50\% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also provide options to represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SchallerPuppeKaczoreketal.2021,
  author    = {Schaller, J{\"o}rg and Puppe, Daniel and Kaczorek, Danuta and Ellerbrock, Ruth and Sommer, Michael},
  title     = {Silicon cycling in soils revisited},
  series = {Plants : open access journal},
  volume    = {10},
  journal   = {Plants : open access journal},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {2223-7747},
  doi       = {10.3390/plants10020295},
  pages     = {33},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Silicon (Si) speciation and availability in soils is highly important for ecosystem functioning, because Si is a beneficial element for plant growth. Si chemistry is highly complex compared to other elements in soils, because Si reaction rates are relatively slow and dependent on Si species. Consequently, we review the occurrence of different Si species in soil solution and their changes by polymerization, depolymerization, and condensation in relation to important soil processes. We show that an argumentation based on thermodynamic endmembers of Si dependent processes, as currently done, is often difficult, because some reactions such as mineral crystallization require months to years (sometimes even centuries or millennia). Furthermore, we give an overview of Si reactions in soil solution and the predominance of certain solid compounds, which is a neglected but important parameter controlling the availability, reactivity, and function of Si in soils. We further discuss the drivers of soil Si cycling and how humans interfere with these processes. The soil Si cycle is of major importance for ecosystem functioning; therefore, a deeper understanding of drivers of Si cycling (e.g., predominant speciation), human disturbances and the implication for important soil properties (water storage, nutrient availability, and micro aggregate stability) is of fundamental relevance.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HoanRichterBorsigetal.2022,
  author    = {Hoan, Tran Viet and Richter, Karl-Gerd and Borsig, Nicolas and Bauer, Jonas and Ha, Nguyen Thi and Norra, Stefan},
  title     = {An improved groundwater model framework for aquifer structures of the quaternary-formed sediment body in the southernmost parts of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam},
  series = {Hydrology : open access journal},
  volume    = {9},
  journal   = {Hydrology : open access journal},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {2306-5338},
  doi       = {10.3390/hydrology9040061},
  pages     = {20},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {The Ca Mau peninsula (CMP) is a key economic region in southern Vietnam. In recent decades, the high demand for water has increased the exploitation of groundwater, thus lowering the groundwater level and leading to risks of degradation, depletion, and land subsidence, as well as salinity intrusion in the groundwater of the whole Mekong Delta region. By using a finite element groundwater model with boundary expansion to the sea, we updated the latest data on hydrogeological profiles, groundwater levels, and exploitation. The basic model setup covers seven aquifers and seven aquitards. It is determined that the inflow along the coastline to the mainland is 39\% of the total inflow. The exploitation of the study area in 2019 was 567,364 m(3)/day. The most exploited aquifers are the upper-middle Pleistocene (qp(2-3)) and the middle Pliocene (n(2)(2)), accounting for 63.7\% and 24.6\%, respectively; the least exploited aquifers are the upper Pleistocene and the upper Miocene, accounting for 0.35\% and 0.02\%, respectively. In the deeper aquifers, qp(2-3) and n(2)(2), the change in storage is negative due to the high exploitation rate, leading to a decline in the reserves of these aquifers. These groundwater model results are the calculations of groundwater reserves from the coast to the mainland in the entire system of aquifers in the CMP. This makes groundwater decision managers, stakeholders, and others more efficient in sustainable water resources planning in the CMP and Mekong Delta (MKD).},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ReineckeTrautmannWageneretal.2022,
  author    = {Reinecke, Robert and Trautmann, Tim and Wagener, Thorsten and Sch{\"u}ler, Katja},
  title     = {The critical need to foster computational reproducibility},
  series = {Environmental research letters},
  volume    = {17},
  journal   = {Environmental research letters},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1748-9326},
  doi       = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac5cf8},
  pages     = {5},
  year      = {2022},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DidovetsKrysanovaBuergeretal.2019,
  author    = {Didovets, Iulii and Krysanova, Valentina and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Snizhko, Sergiy and Balabukh, Vira and Bronstert, Axel},
  title     = {Climate change impact on regional floods in the Carpathian region},
  series = {Journal of hydrology : Regional studies},
  volume    = {22},
  journal   = {Journal of hydrology : Regional studies},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {2214-5818},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.01.002},
  pages     = {14},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Study region: Tisza and Prut catchments, originating on the slopes of the Carpathian mountains. Study focus: The study reported here investigates (i) climate change impacts on flood risk in the region, and (ii) uncertainty related to hydrological modelling, downscaling techniques and climate projections. The climate projections used in the study were derived from five GCMs, downscaled either dynamically with RCMs or with the statistical downscaling model XDS. The resulting climate change scenarios were applied to drive the eco-hydrological model SWIM, which was calibrated and validated for the catchments in advance using observed climate and hydrological data. The changes in the 30-year flood hazards and 98 and 95 percentiles of discharge were evaluated for the far future period (2071-2100) in comparison with the reference period (1981-2010). New hydrological insights for the region: The majority of model outputs under RCP 4.5 show a small to strong increase of the 30-year flood level in the Tisza ranging from 4.5\% to 62\%, and moderate increase in the Prut ranging from 11\% to 22\%. The impact results under RCP 8.5 are more uncertain with changes in both directions due to high uncertainties in GCM-RCM climate projections, downscaling methods and the low density of available climate stations.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DevittNealWageneretal.2021,
  author    = {Devitt, Laura and Neal, Jeffrey and Wagener, Thorsten and Coxon, Gemma},
  title     = {Uncertainty in the extreme flood magnitude estimates of large-scale flood hazard models},
  series = {Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics},
  volume    = {16},
  journal   = {Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1748-9326},
  doi       = {10.1088/1748-9326/abfac4},
  pages     = {15},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {The growing worldwide impact of flood events has motivated the development and application of global flood hazard models (GFHMs). These models have become useful tools for flood risk assessment and management, especially in regions where little local hazard information is available. One of the key uncertainties associated with GFHMs is the estimation of extreme flood magnitudes to generate flood hazard maps. In this study, the 1-in-100 year flood (Q100) magnitude was estimated using flow outputs from four global hydrological models (GHMs) and two global flood frequency analysis datasets for 1350 gauges across the conterminous US. The annual maximum flows of the observed and modelled timeseries of streamflow were bootstrapped to evaluate the sensitivity of the underlying data to extrapolation. Results show that there are clear spatial patterns of bias associated with each method. GHMs show a general tendency to overpredict Western US gauges and underpredict Eastern US gauges. The GloFAS and HYPE models underpredict Q100 by more than 25\% in 68\% and 52\% of gauges, respectively. The PCR-GLOBWB and CaMa-Flood models overestimate Q100 by more than 25\% at 60\% and 65\% of gauges in West and Central US, respectively. The global frequency analysis datasets have spatial variabilities that differ from the GHMs. We found that river basin area and topographic elevation explain some of the spatial variability in predictive performance found in this study. However, there is no single model or method that performs best everywhere, and therefore we recommend a weighted ensemble of predictions of extreme flood magnitudes should be used for large-scale flood hazard assessment.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MtilatilaBronstertShresthaetal.2020,
  author    = {Mtilatila, Lucy Mphatso Ng'ombe and Bronstert, Axel and Shrestha, Pallav and Kadewere, Peter and Vormoor, Klaus Josef},
  title     = {Susceptibility of water resources and hydropower production to climate change in the tropics},
  series = {Hydrology : open access journal},
  volume    = {7},
  journal   = {Hydrology : open access journal},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {2306-5338},
  doi       = {10.3390/hydrology7030054},
  pages     = {26},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {The sensitivity of key hydrologic variables and hydropower generation to climate change in the Lake Malawi and Shire River basins is assessed. The study adapts the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) which is applied separately in the Upper Lake Malawi and Shire River basins. A particular Lake Malawi model, which focuses on reservoir routing and lake water balance, has been developed and is interlinked between the two basins. Climate change projections from 20 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models for Africa based on two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 are used. An annual temperature increase of 1 degrees C decreases mean lake level and outflow by 0.3 m and 17\%, respectively, signifying the importance of intensified evaporation for Lake Malawi's water budget. Meanwhile, a +5\% (-5\%) deviation in annual rainfall changes mean lake level by +0.7 m (-0.6 m). The combined effects of temperature increase and rainfall decrease result in significantly lower flows in the Shire River. The hydrological river regime may change from perennial to seasonal with the combination of annual temperature increase and precipitation decrease beyond 1.5 degrees C (3.5 degrees C) and -20\% (-15\%). The study further projects a reduction in annual hydropower production between 1\% (RCP8.5) and 2.5\% (RCP4.5) during 2021-2050 and between 5\% (RCP4.5) and 24\% (RCP8.5) during 2071-2100. The results show that it is of great importance that a further development of hydro energy on the Shire River should take into account the effects of climate change, e.g., longer low flow periods and/or higher discharge fluctuations, and thus uncertainty in the amount of electricity produced.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SeleemAyzelCostaTomazdeSouzaetal.2022,
  author    = {Seleem, Omar and Ayzel, Georgy and Costa Tomaz de Souza, Arthur and Bronstert, Axel and Heistermann, Maik},
  title     = {Towards urban flood susceptibility mapping using data-driven models in Berlin, Germany},
  series = {Geomatics, natural hazards and risk},
  volume    = {13},
  journal   = {Geomatics, natural hazards and risk},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Taylor \& Francis},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {1947-5705},
  doi       = {10.1080/19475705.2022.2097131},
  pages     = {1640 -- 1662},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Identifying urban pluvial flood-prone areas is necessary but the application of two-dimensional hydrodynamic models is limited to small areas. Data-driven models have been showing their ability to map flood susceptibility but their application in urban pluvial flooding is still rare. A flood inventory (4333 flooded locations) and 11 factors which potentially indicate an increased hazard for pluvial flooding were used to implement convolutional neural network (CNN), artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) to: (1) Map flood susceptibility in Berlin at 30, 10, 5, and 2 m spatial resolutions. (2) Evaluate the trained models' transferability in space. (3) Estimate the most useful factors for flood susceptibility mapping. The models' performance was validated using the Kappa, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The results indicated that all models perform very well (minimum AUC = 0.87 for the testing dataset). The RF models outperformed all other models at all spatial resolutions and the RF model at 2 m spatial resolution was superior for the present flood inventory and predictor variables. The majority of the models had a moderate performance for predictions outside the training area based on Kappa evaluation (minimum AUC = 0.8). Aspect and altitude were the most influencing factors on the image-based and point-based models respectively. Data-driven models can be a reliable tool for urban pluvial flood susceptibility mapping wherever a reliable flood inventory is available.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SeleemAyzelBronstertetal.2023,
  author    = {Seleem, Omar and Ayzel, Georgy and Bronstert, Axel and Heistermann, Maik},
  title     = {Transferability of data-driven models to predict urban pluvial flood water depth in Berlin, Germany},
  series = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
  volume    = {23},
  journal   = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1684-9981},
  doi       = {10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023},
  pages     = {809 -- 822},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Data-driven models have been recently suggested to surrogate computationally expensive hydrodynamic models to map flood hazards. However, most studies focused on developing models for the same area or the same precipitation event. It is thus not obvious how transferable the models are in space. This study evaluates the performance of a convolutional neural network (CNN) based on the U-Net architecture and the random forest (RF) algorithm to predict flood water depth, the models' transferability in space and performance improvement using transfer learning techniques. We used three study areas in Berlin to train, validate and test the models. The results showed that (1) the RF models outperformed the CNN models for predictions within the training domain, presumable at the cost of overfitting; (2) the CNN models had significantly higher potential than the RF models to generalize beyond the training domain; and (3) the CNN models could better benefit from transfer learning technique to boost their performance outside training domains than RF models.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RottlerFranckeBuergeretal.2020,
  author    = {Rottler, Erwin and Francke, Till and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Bronstert, Axel},
  title     = {Long-term changes in central European river discharge for 1869-2016},
  series = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
  volume    = {24},
  journal   = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1027-5606},
  doi       = {10.5194/hess-24-1721-2020},
  pages     = {1721 -- 1740},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Recent climatic changes have the potential to severely alter river runoff, particularly in snow-dominated river basins. Effects of changing snow covers superimpose with changes in precipitation and anthropogenic modifications of the watershed and river network. In the attempt to identify and disentangle long-term effects of different mechanisms, we employ a set of analytical tools to extract long-term changes in river runoff at high resolution. We combine quantile sampling with moving average trend statistics and empirical mode decomposition and apply these tools to discharge data recorded along rivers with nival, pluvial and mixed flow regimes as well as temperature and precipitation data covering the time frame 1869-2016. With a focus on central Europe, we analyse the long-term impact of snow cover and precipitation changes along with their interaction with reservoir constructions. Our results show that runoff seasonality of snow-dominated rivers decreases. Runoff increases in winter and spring, while discharge decreases in summer and at the beginning of autumn. We attribute this redistribution of annual flow mainly to reservoir constructions in the Alpine ridge. During the course of the last century, large fractions of the Alpine rivers were dammed to produce hydropower. In recent decades, runoff changes induced by reservoir constructions seem to overlap with changes in snow cover. We suggest that Alpine signals propagate downstream and affect runoff far outside the Alpine area in river segments with mixed flow regimes. Furthermore, our results hint at more (intense) rain-fall in recent decades. Detected increases in high discharge can be traced back to corresponding changes in precipitation.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RottlerVormoorFranckeetal.2021,
  author    = {Rottler, Erwin and Vormoor, Klaus Josef and Francke, Till and Warscher, Michael and Strasser, Ulrich and Bronstert, Axel},
  title     = {Elevation-dependent compensation effects in snowmelt in the Rhine River Basin upstream gauge Basel},
  series = {Hydrology research : an international journal / Nordic Association of Hydrology ; British Hydrological Society},
  volume    = {52},
  journal   = {Hydrology research : an international journal / Nordic Association of Hydrology ; British Hydrological Society},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {IWA Publ.},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {2224-7955},
  doi       = {10.2166/nh.2021.092},
  pages     = {536 -- 557},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {In snow-dominated river basins, floods often occur during early summer, when snowmelt-induced runoff superimposes with rainfall-induced runoff. An earlier onset of seasonal snowmelt as a consequence of a warming climate is often expected to shift snowmelt contribution to river runoff and potential flooding to an earlier date. Against this background, we assess the impact of rising temperatures on seasonal snowpacks and quantify changes in timing, magnitude and elevation of snowmelt. We analyse in situ snow measurements, conduct snow simulations and examine changes in river runoff at key gauging stations. With regard to snowmelt, we detect a threefold effect of rising temperatures: snowmelt becomes weaker, occurs earlier and forms at higher elevations. Due to the wide range of elevations in the catchment, snowmelt does not occur simultaneously at all elevations. Results indicate that elevation bands melt together in blocks. We hypothesise that in a warmer world with similar sequences of weather conditions, snowmelt is moved upward to higher elevation. The movement upward the elevation range makes snowmelt in individual elevation bands occur earlier, although the timing of the snowmelt-induced runoff stays the same. Meltwater from higher elevations, at least partly, replaces meltwater from elevations below.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MtilatilaBronstertVormoor2022,
  author    = {Mtilatila, Lucy Mphatso Ng'ombe and Bronstert, Axel and Vormoor, Klaus Josef},
  title     = {Temporal evaluation and projections of meteorological droughts in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin, Southeast Africa},
  series = {Frontiers in water},
  volume    = {4},
  journal   = {Frontiers in water},
  publisher = {Frontiers Media},
  address   = {Lausanne},
  issn      = {2624-9375},
  doi       = {10.3389/frwa.2022.1041452},
  pages     = {16},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {The study examined the potential future changes of drought characteristics in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin in Southeast Africa. This region strongly depends on water resources to generate electricity and food. Future projections (considering both moderate and high emission scenarios) of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of 16 bias-corrected climate model combinations were blended with a scenario-neutral response surface approach to analyses changes in: (i) the meteorological conditions, (ii) the meteorological water balance, and (iii) selected drought characteristics such as drought intensity, drought months, and drought events, which were derived from the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index. Changes were analyzed for a near-term (2021-2050) and far-term period (2071-2100) with reference to 1976-2005. The effect of bias-correction (i.e., empirical quantile mapping) on the ability of the climate model ensemble to reproduce observed drought characteristics as compared to raw climate projections was also investigated. Results suggest that the bias-correction improves the climate models in terms of reproducing temperature and precipitation statistics but not drought characteristics. Still, despite the differences in the internal structures and uncertainties that exist among the climate models, they all agree on an increase of meteorological droughts in the future in terms of higher drought intensity and longer events. Drought intensity is projected to increase between +25 and +50\% during 2021-2050 and between +131 and +388\% during 2071-2100. This translates into +3 to +5, and +7 to +8 more drought months per year during both periods, respectively. With longer lasting drought events, the number of drought events decreases. Projected droughts based on the high emission scenario are 1.7 times more severe than droughts based on the moderate scenario. That means that droughts in this region will likely become more severe in the coming decades. Despite the inherent high uncertainties of climate projections, the results provide a basis in planning and (water-)managing activities for climate change adaptation measures in Malawi. This is of particular relevance for water management issues referring hydro power generation and food production, both for rain-fed and irrigated agriculture.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SeleemHeistermannBronstert2021,
  author    = {Seleem, Omar and Heistermann, Maik and Bronstert, Axel},
  title     = {Efficient Hazard Assessment For Pluvial Floods In Urban Environments},
  series = {Water},
  volume    = {13},
  journal   = {Water},
  number    = {18},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {2073-4441},
  doi       = {10.3390/w13182476},
  pages     = {17},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {The presence of impermeable surfaces in urban areas hinders natural drainage and directs the surface runoff to storm drainage systems with finite capacity, which makes these areas prone to pluvial flooding. The occurrence of pluvial flooding depends on the existence of minimal areas for surface runoff generation and concentration. Detailed hydrologic and hydrodynamic simulations are computationally expensive and require intensive resources. This study compared and evaluated the performance of two simplified methods to identify urban pluvial flood-prone areas, namely the fill-spill-merge (FSM) method and the topographic wetness index (TWI) method and used the TELEMAC-2D hydrodynamic numerical model for benchmarking and validation. The FSM method uses common GIS operations to identify flood-prone depressions from a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM). The TWI method employs the maximum likelihood method (MLE) to probabilistically calibrate a TWI threshold (τ) based on the inundation maps from a 2D hydrodynamic model for a given spatial window (W) within the urban area. We found that the FSM method clearly outperforms the TWI method both conceptually and effectively in terms of model performance.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MtilatilaBronstertVormoor2022,
  author    = {Mtilatila, Lucy Mphatso Ng'ombe and Bronstert, Axel and Vormoor, Klaus Josef},
  title     = {Temporal evaluation and projections of meteorological droughts in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin, Southeast Africa},
  series = {Frontiers in Water},
  journal   = {Frontiers in Water},
  publisher = {Frontiers Media S.A.},
  address   = {Lausanne, Schweiz},
  issn      = {2624-9375},
  doi       = {10.3389/frwa.2022.1041452},
  pages     = {1 -- 16},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {The study examined the potential future changes of drought characteristics in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin in Southeast Africa. This region strongly depends on water resources to generate electricity and food. Future projections (considering both moderate and high emission scenarios) of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of 16 bias-corrected climate model combinations were blended with a scenario-neutral response surface approach to analyses changes in: (i) the meteorological conditions, (ii) the meteorological water balance, and (iii) selected drought characteristics such as drought intensity, drought months, and drought events, which were derived from the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index. Changes were analyzed for a near-term (2021-2050) and far-term period (2071-2100) with reference to 1976-2005. The effect of bias-correction (i.e., empirical quantile mapping) on the ability of the climate model ensemble to reproduce observed drought characteristics as compared to raw climate projections was also investigated. Results suggest that the bias-correction improves the climate models in terms of reproducing temperature and precipitation statistics but not drought characteristics. Still, despite the differences in the internal structures and uncertainties that exist among the climate models, they all agree on an increase of meteorological droughts in the future in terms of higher drought intensity and longer events. Drought intensity is projected to increase between +25 and +50\% during 2021-2050 and between +131 and +388\% during 2071-2100. This translates into +3 to +5, and +7 to +8 more drought months per year during both periods, respectively. With longer lasting drought events, the number of drought events decreases. Projected droughts based on the high emission scenario are 1.7 times more severe than droughts based on the moderate scenario. That means that droughts in this region will likely become more severe in the coming decades. Despite the inherent high uncertainties of climate projections, the results provide a basis in planning and (water-)managing activities for climate change adaptation measures in Malawi. This is of particular relevance for water management issues referring hydro power generation and food production, both for rain-fed and irrigated agriculture.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BryantMcGrathBoudreault2022,
  author    = {Bryant, Seth and McGrath, Heather and Boudreault, Mathieu},
  title     = {Gridded flood depth estimates from satellite-derived inundations},
  series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  volume    = {22},
  journal   = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {European Geophysical Society},
  address   = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
  issn      = {1561-8633},
  doi       = {10.5194/nhess-22-1437-2022},
  pages     = {1437 -- 1450},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Canada's RADARSAT missions improve the potential to study past flood events; however, existing tools to derive flood depths from this remote-sensing data do not correct for errors, leading to poor estimates. To provide more accurate gridded depth estimates of historical flooding, a new tool is proposed that integrates Height Above Nearest Drainage and Cost Allocation algorithms. This tool is tested against two trusted, hydraulically derived, gridded depths of recent floods in Canada. This validation shows the proposed tool outperforms existing tools and can provide more accurate estimates from minimal data without the need for complex physics-based models or expert judgement. With improvements in remote-sensing data, the tool proposed here can provide flood researchers and emergency managers accurate depths in near-real time.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KuehnBeckerHarpkeetal.2022,
  author    = {K{\"u}hn, Elisabeth and Becker, Marc and Harpke, Alexander and K{\"u}hn, Ingolf and Kuhlicke, Christian and Schmitt, Thomas and Settele, Josef and Musche, Martin},
  title     = {The benefits of counting butterflies: recommendations for a successful citizen science project},
  series = {Ecology and Society},
  volume    = {27},
  journal   = {Ecology and Society},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Resilience Alliance},
  address   = {Wolfville},
  issn      = {1708-3087},
  doi       = {10.5751/ES-12861-270238},
  pages     = {39},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Citizen science (CS) projects, being popular across many fields of science, have recently also become a popular tool to collect biodiversity data. Although the benefits of such projects for science and policy making are well understood, relatively little is known about the benefits participants get from these projects as well as their personal backgrounds and motivations. Furthermore, very little is known about their expectations. We here examine these aspects, with the citizen science project "German Butterfly Monitoring" as an example. A questionnaire was sent to all participants of the project and the responses to the questionnaire indicated the following: center dot Most transect walkers do not have a professional background in this field, though they do have a high educational level, and are close to retirement, with a high number of females; center dot An important motivation to join the project is to preserve the natural environment and to contribute to scientific knowledge; center dot Participants benefit by enhancing their knowledge about butterflies and especially their ability to identify different species (taxonomic knowledge); center dot Participants do not have specific expectations regarding the project beyond proper management and coordination, but have an intrinsic sense of working for a greater good. The willingness to join a project is higher if the project contributes to the solution of a problem discussed in the media (here, insect decline). Based on our findings from the analysis of the questionnaire we can derive a set of recommendations for establishing a successful CS project. These include the importance of good communication, e.g., by explaining what the (scientific) purpose of the project is and what problems are to be solved with the help of the data collected in the project. The motivation to join a CS project is mostly intrinsic and CS is a good tool to engage people during difficult times such as the COVID-19 pandemic, giving participants the feeling of doing something useful.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{VogelPatonAichetal.2021,
  author    = {Vogel, Johannes and Paton, Eva and Aich, Valentin and Bronstert, Axel},
  title     = {Increasing compound warm spells and droughts in the Mediterranean Basin},
  series = {Weather and climate extremes},
  volume    = {32},
  journal   = {Weather and climate extremes},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {2212-0947},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.wace.2021.100312},
  pages     = {14},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {The co-occurrence of warm spells and droughts can lead to detrimental socio-economic and ecological impacts, largely surpassing the impacts of either warm spells or droughts alone. We quantify changes in the number of compound warm spells and droughts from 1979 to 2018 in the Mediterranean Basin using the ERA5 data set. We analyse two types of compound events: 1) warm season compound events, which are extreme in absolute terms in the warm season from May to October and 2) year-round deseasonalised compound events, which are extreme in relative terms respective to the time of the year. The number of compound events increases significantly and especially warm spells are increasing strongly - with an annual growth rates of 3.9 (3.5) \% for warm season (deseasonalised) compound events and 4.6 (4.4) \% for warm spells -, whereas for droughts the change is more ambiguous depending on the applied definition. Therefore, the rise in the number of compound events is primarily driven by temperature changes and not the lack of precipitation. The months July and August show the highest increases in warm season compound events, whereas the highest increases of deseasonalised compound events occur in spring and early summer. This increase in deseasonalised compound events can potentially have a significant impact on the functioning of Mediterranean ecosystems as this is the peak phase of ecosystem productivity and a vital phenophase.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BuergerPfisterBronstert2021,
  author    = {B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Pfister, Angela and Bronstert, Axel},
  title     = {Zunehmende Starkregenintensit{\"a}ten als Folge der Klimaerw{\"a}rmung},
  series = {Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung : HyWa = Hydrology and water resources management, Germany / Hrsg.: Fachverwaltungen des Bundes und der L{\"a}nder},
  volume    = {65},
  journal   = {Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung : HyWa = Hydrology and water resources management, Germany / Hrsg.: Fachverwaltungen des Bundes und der L{\"a}nder},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {Bundesanst. f{\"u}r Gew{\"a}sserkunde},
  address   = {Koblenz},
  issn      = {1439-1783},
  doi       = {10.5675/HyWa_2021.6_1},
  pages     = {262 -- 271},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Extreme rainfall events of short duration in the range of hours and below are increasingly coming into focus due to the resulting damage from flash floods and also due to their possible intensification by anthropogenic climate change. The current study investigates possible trends in heavy rainfall intensities for stations from Swiss and Austrian alpine regions as well as for the Emscher-Lippe area in North Rhine-Westphalia on the basis of partly very long (> 50 years) and temporally highly resolved time series (<= 15 minutes). It becomes clear that there is an increase in extreme rainfall intensities, which can be well explained by the warming of the regional climate: the analyses of long-term trends in exceedance counts and return levels show considerable uncertainties, but are in the order of 30 \% increase per century. In addition, based on an "average" climate simulation for the 21st century, this paper describes a projection for extreme precipitation intensities at very high temporal resolution for a number of stations in the Emscher-Lippe region. A coupled spatial and temporal "downscaling" is applied, the key innovation of which is the consideration of the dependence of local rainfall intensity on air temperature. This procedure involves two steps: First, large-scale climate fields at daily resolution are statistically linked by regression to station temperature and precipitation values (spatial downscaling). In the second step, these station values are disaggregated to a temporal resolution of 10 minutes using a so-called multiplicative stochastic cascade model (MC) (temporal downscaling). The novel, temperature-sensitive variant additionally considers air temperature as an explanatory variable for precipitation intensities. Thus, the higher atmospheric moisture content expected with warming, which results from the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship, is included in the temporal downscaling. <br /> For the statistical evaluation of the extreme short-term precipitation, the upper quantiles (99.9 \%), exceedance counts (P > 5mm), and 3-yr return levels of the <= 15-min duration step has been used. Only by adding temperature is the observed temperature observed of the extreme quantiles ("CC scaling") well reproduced. When comparing observed data and present-day simulations of the model cascade, the temperature-sensitive procedure shows consistent results. Compared to trends in recent decades, similar or even larger increases in extreme intensities are projected for the future. This is remarkable in that these appear to be driven primarily by local temperature, as the projected trends in daily precipitation values are negligible for this region.},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{vonSpechtOeztuerkVehetal.2019,
  author    = {von Specht, Sebastian and {\"O}zt{\"u}rk, Ugur and Veh, Georg and Cotton, Fabrice and Korup, Oliver},
  title     = {Effects of finite source rupture on landslide triggering},
  series = {Solid earth},
  volume    = {10},
  journal   = {Solid earth},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1869-9510},
  doi       = {10.5194/se-10-463-2019},
  pages     = {463 -- 486},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {The propagation of a seismic rupture on a fault introduces spatial variations in the seismic wave field surrounding the fault. This directivity effect results in larger shaking amplitudes in the rupture propagation direction. Its seismic radiation pattern also causes amplitude variations between the strike-normal and strike-parallel components of horizontal ground motion. We investigated the landslide response to these effects during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M-w 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Although the distribution of some 1500 earthquake-triggered landslides as a function of rupture distance is consistent with the observed Arias intensity, the landslides were more concentrated to the northeast of the southwest-northeast striking rupture. We examined several landslide susceptibility factors: hillslope inclination, the median amplification factor (MAF) of ground shaking, lithology, land cover, and topographic wetness. None of these factors sufficiently explains the landslide distribution or orientation (aspect), although the landslide head scarps have an elevated hillslope inclination and MAF. We propose a new physics-based ground-motion model (GMM) that accounts for the seismic rupture effects, and we demonstrate that the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern is consistent with the overall landslide distribution. Its spatial pattern is influenced by the rupture directivity effect, whereas landslide aspect is influenced by amplitude variations between the fault-normal and fault-parallel motion at frequencies < 2 Hz. This azimuth dependence implies that comparable landslide concentrations can occur at different distances from the rupture. This quantitative link between the prevalent landslide aspect and the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern can improve coseismic landslide hazard assessment.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RitterAngelesBurgosBoeckmannetal.2018,
  author    = {Ritter, Christoph and {\´A}ngeles Burgos, Mar{\´i}a and B{\"o}ckmann, Christine and Mateos, David and Lisok, Justyna and Markowicz, Krzysztof M. and Moroni, Beatrice and Cappelletti, David and Udisti, Roberto and Maturilli, Marion and Neuber, Roland},
  title     = {Microphysical properties and radiative impact of an intense biomass burning aerosol event measured over Ny-angstrom lesund, Spitsbergen in July 2015},
  series = {Tellus - Series B, Chemical and Physical Meteorology},
  volume    = {70},
  journal   = {Tellus - Series B, Chemical and Physical Meteorology},
  publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group},
  address   = {Abingdon},
  issn      = {1600-0889},
  doi       = {10.1080/16000889.2018.1539618},
  pages     = {23},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {In this work, an evaluation of an intense biomass burning event observed over Ny-angstrom lesund (Spitsbergen, European Arctic) in July 2015 is presented. Data from the multi-wavelengths Raman-lidar KARL, a sun photometer and radiosonde measurements are used to derive some microphysical properties of the biomass burning aerosol as size distribution, refractive index and single scattering albedo at different relative humidities. Predominantly particles in the accumulation mode have been found with a bi-modal distribution and dominance of the smaller mode. Above 80\% relative humidity, hygroscopic growth in terms of an increase of particle diameter and a slight decrease of the index of refraction (real and imaginary part) has been found. Values of the single scattering albedo around 0.9 both at 355nm and 532nm indicate some absorption by the aerosol. Values of the lidar ratio are around 26sr for 355nm and around 50sr for 532nm, almost independent of the relative humidity. Further, data from the photometer and surface radiation values from the local baseline surface radiation network (BSRN) have been applied to derive the radiative impact of the biomass burning event purely from observational data by comparison with a clear background day. We found a strong cooling for the visible radiation and a slight warming in the infra-red. The net aerosol forcing, derived by comparison with a clear background day purely from observational data, obtained a value of -95 W/m(2) per unit AOD500.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SchweppeThoberMuelleretal.2022,
  author    = {Schweppe, Robert and Thober, Stephan and M{\"u}ller, Sebastian and Kelbling, Matthias and Kumar, Rohini and Attinger, Sabine and Samaniego, Luis},
  title     = {MPR 1.0: a stand-alone multiscale parameter regionalization tool for improved parameter estimation of land surface models},
  series = {Geoscientific model development : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
  volume    = {15},
  journal   = {Geoscientific model development : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1991-959X},
  doi       = {10.5194/gmd-15-859-2022},
  pages     = {859 -- 882},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Distributed environmental models such as land surface models (LSMs) require model parameters in each spatial modeling unit (e.g., grid cell), thereby leading to a high-dimensional parameter space. One approach to decrease the dimensionality of the parameter space in these models is to use regularization techniques. One such highly efficient technique is the multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) framework that translates high-resolution predictor variables (e.g., soil textural properties) into model parameters (e.g., porosity) via transfer functions (TFs) and upscaling operators that are suitable for every modeled process. This framework yields seamless model parameters at multiple scales and locations in an effective manner. However, integration of MPR into existing modeling workflows has been hindered thus far by hard-coded configurations and non-modular software designs. For these reasons, we redesigned MPR as a model-agnostic, stand-alone tool. It is a useful software for creating graphs of NetCDF variables, wherein each node is a variable and the links consist of TFs and/or upscaling operators. In this study, we present and verify our tool against a previous version, which was implemented in the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM; https://www.ufz.de/mhm, last access: 16 January 2022). By using this tool for the generation of continental-scale soil hydraulic parameters applicable to different models (Noah-MP and HTESSEL), we showcase its general functionality and flexibility. Further, using model parameters estimated by the MPR tool leads to significant changes in long-term estimates of evapotranspiration, as compared to their default parameterizations. For example, a change of up to 25 \% in long-term evapotranspiration flux is observed in Noah-MP and HTESSEL in the Mississippi River basin. We postulate that use of the stand-alone MPR tool will considerably increase the transparency and reproducibility of the parameter estimation process in distributed (environmental) models. It will also allow a rigorous uncertainty estimation related to the errors of the predictors (e.g., soil texture fields), transfer function and its parameters, and remapping (or upscaling) algorithms.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{FunkBusseSiegmundetal.2022,
  author    = {Funk, Roger and Busse, Jaqueline and Siegmund, Nicole and Sommer, Michael and Iturri, Laura Antonela and Panebianco, Juan E. and Avecilla, Fernando and Buschiazzo, Daniel},
  title     = {Phytoliths in particulate matter released by wind erosion on arable land in La Pampa, Argentina},
  series = {Frontiers in environmental science},
  volume    = {10},
  journal   = {Frontiers in environmental science},
  publisher = {Frontiers Media},
  address   = {Lausanne},
  issn      = {2296-665X},
  doi       = {10.3389/fenvs.2022.969898},
  pages     = {10},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Silicon (Si) is considered a beneficial element in plant nutrition, but its importance on ecosystems goes far beyond that. Various forms of silicon are found in soils, of which the phytogenic pool plays a decisive role due to its good availability. This Si returns to the soil through the decomposition of plant residues, where they then participate in the further cycle as biogenic amorphous silica (bASi) or so-called phytoliths. These have a high affinity for water, so that the water holding capacity and water availability of soils can be increased even by small amounts of ASi. Agricultural land is a considerable global dust source, and dust samples from arable land have shown in cloud formation experiments a several times higher ice nucleation activity than pure mineral dust. Here, particle sizes in the particulate matter fractions (PM) are important, which can travel long distances and reach high altitudes in the atmosphere. Based on this, the research question was whether phytoliths could be detected in PM samples from wind erosion events, what are the main particle sizes of phytoliths and whether an initial quantification was possible.Measurements of PM concentrations were carried out at a wind erosion measuring field in the province La Pampa, Argentina. PM were sampled during five erosion events with Environmental Dust Monitors (EDM). After counting and classifying all particles with diameters between 0.3 and 32 mu m in the EDMs, they are collected on filters. The filters were analyzed by Scanning Electron Microscopy and Energy Dispersive X-Ray analysis (SEM-EDX) to investigate single or ensembles of particles regarding composition and possible origins.The analyses showed up to 8.3 per cent being phytoliths in the emitted dust and up to 25 per cent of organic origin. Particles of organic origin are mostly in the coarse dust fraction, whereas phytoliths are predominately transported in the finer dust fractions. Since phytoliths are both an important source of Si as a plant nutrient and are also involved in soil C fixation, their losses from arable land via dust emissions should be considered and its specific influence on atmospheric processes should be studied in detail in the future.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HaberPohlmeierToetzkeLehmannetal.2019,
  author    = {Haber-Pohlmeier, Sabina and T{\"o}tzke, Christian and Lehmann, E. and Kardjilov, Nikolay and Pohlmeier, A. and Oswald, Sascha},
  title     = {Combination of magnetic resonance imaging and neutron computed tomography for three-dimensional rhizosphere imaging},
  series = {Vadose zone journal},
  volume    = {18},
  journal   = {Vadose zone journal},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Soil Science Society of America},
  address   = {Madison},
  issn      = {1539-1663},
  doi       = {10.2136/vzj2018.09.0166},
  pages     = {11},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Core Ideas 3D MRI relaxation time maps reflect water mobility in root, rhizosphere, and soil. 3D NCT water content maps of the same plant complement relaxation time maps. The relaxation time T1 decreases from soil to root, whereas water content increases. Parameters together indicate modification of rhizosphere pore space by gel phase. The zone of reduced T1 corresponds to the zone remaining dry after rewetting. In situ investigations of the rhizosphere require high-resolution imaging techniques, which allow a look into the optically opaque soil compartment. We present the novel combination of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and neutron computed tomography (NCT) to achieve synergistic information such as water mobility in terms of three-dimensional (3D) relaxation time maps and total water content maps. Besides a stationary MRI scanner for relaxation time mapping, we used a transportable MRI system on site in the NCT facility to capture rhizosphere properties before desiccation and after subsequent rewetting. First, we addressed two questions using water-filled test capillaries between 0.1 and 5 mm: which root diameters can still be detected by both methods, and to what extent are defined interfaces blurred by these imaging techniques? Going to real root system architecture, we demonstrated the sensitivity of the transportable MRI device by co-registration with NCT and additional validation using X-ray computed tomography. Under saturated conditions, we observed for the rhizosphere in situ a zone with shorter T1 relaxation time across a distance of about 1 mm that was not caused by reduced water content, as proven by successive NCT measurements. We conclude that the effective pore size in the pore network had changed, induced by a gel phase. After rewetting, NCT images showed a dry zone persisting while the MRI intensity inside the root increased considerably, indicating water uptake from the surrounding bulk soil through the still hydrophobic rhizosphere. Overall, combining NCT and MRI allows a more detailed analysis of the rhizosphere's functioning.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ToetzkeKardjilovHilgeretal.2021,
  author    = {T{\"o}tzke, Christian and Kardjilov, Nikolay and Hilger, Andr{\´e} and Rudolph-Mohr, Nicole and Manke, Ingo and Oswald, Sascha},
  title     = {Three-dimensional in vivo analysis of water uptake and translocation in maize roots by fast neutron tomography},
  series = {Scientific Reports},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {Scientific Reports},
  publisher = {Macmillan Publishers Limited},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {2045-2322},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41598-021-90062-4},
  pages     = {10},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Root water uptake is an essential process for terrestrial plants that strongly affects the spatiotemporal distribution of water in vegetated soil. Fast neutron tomography is a recently established non-invasive imaging technique capable to capture the 3D architecture of root systems in situ and even allows for tracking of three-dimensional water flow in soil and roots. We present an in vivo analysis of local water uptake and transport by roots of soil-grown maize plants—for the first time measured in a three-dimensional time-resolved manner. Using deuterated water as tracer in infiltration experiments, we visualized soil imbibition, local root uptake, and tracked the transport of deuterated water throughout the fibrous root system for a day and night situation. This revealed significant differences in water transport between different root types. The primary root was the preferred water transport path in the 13-days-old plants while seminal roots of comparable size and length contributed little to plant water supply. The results underline the unique potential of fast neutron tomography to provide time-resolved 3D in vivo information on the water uptake and transport dynamics of plant root systems, thus contributing to a better understanding of the complex interactions of plant, soil and water.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{FranckeHeistermannKoehlietal.2022,
  author    = {Francke, Till and Heistermann, Maik and K{\"o}hli, Markus and Budach, Christian and Schr{\"o}n, Martin and Oswald, Sascha},
  title     = {Assessing the feasibility of a directional cosmic-ray neutron sensing sensor for estimating soil moisture},
  series = {Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems},
  publisher = {Copernicus Publ.},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {2193-0864},
  doi       = {10.5194/gi-11-75-2022},
  pages     = {75 -- 92},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a non-invasive tool for measuring hydrogen pools such as soil moisture, snow or vegetation. The intrinsic integration over a radial hectare-scale footprint is a clear advantage for averaging out small-scale heterogeneity, but on the other hand the data may become hard to interpret in complex terrain with patchy land use. This study presents a directional shielding approach to prevent neutrons from certain angles from being counted while counting neutrons entering the detector from other angles and explores its potential to gain a sharper horizontal view on the surrounding soil moisture distribution. Using the Monte Carlo code URANOS (Ultra Rapid Neutron-Only Simulation), we modelled the effect of additional polyethylene shields on the horizontal field of view and assessed its impact on the epithermal count rate, propagated uncertainties and aggregation time. The results demonstrate that directional CRNS measurements are strongly dominated by isotropic neutron transport, which dilutes the signal of the targeted direction especially from the far field. For typical count rates of customary CRNS stations, directional shielding of half-spaces could not lead to acceptable precision at a daily time resolution. However, the mere statistical distinction of two rates should be feasible.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HeistermannFranckeSchroenetal.2021,
  author    = {Heistermann, Maik and Francke, Till and Schr{\"o}n, Martin and Oswald, Sascha},
  title     = {Spatio-temporal soil moisture retrieval at the catchment scale using a dense network of cosmic-ray neutron sensors},
  series = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS)},
  volume    = {25},
  journal   = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS)},
  publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1607-7938},
  doi       = {10.5194/hess-25-4807-2021},
  pages     = {18},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a powerful technique for retrieving representative estimates of soil water content at a horizontal scale of hectometres (the "field scale") and depths of tens of centimetres ("the root zone"). This study demonstrates the potential of the CRNS technique to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of soil moisture beyond the integrated volume from isolated CRNS footprints. We use data from an observational campaign carried out between May and July 2019 that featured a dense network of more than 20 neutron detectors with partly overlapping footprints in an area that exhibits pronounced soil moisture gradients within one square kilometre. The present study is the first to combine these observations in order to represent the heterogeneity of soil water content at the sub-footprint scale as well as between the CRNS stations. First, we apply a state-of-the-art procedure to correct the observed neutron count rates for static effects (heterogeneity in space, e.g. soil organic matter) and dynamic effects (heterogeneity in time, e.g. barometric pressure). Based on the homogenized neutron data, we investigate the robustness of a calibration approach that uses a single calibration parameter across all CRNS stations. Finally, we benchmark two different interpolation techniques for obtaining spatio-temporal representations of soil moisture: first, ordinary Kriging with a fixed range; second, spatial interpolation complemented by geophysical inversion ("constrained interpolation"). To that end, we optimize the parameters of a geostatistical interpolation model so that the error in the forward-simulated neutron count rates is minimized, and suggest a heuristic forward operator to make the optimization problem computationally feasible. Comparison with independent measurements from a cluster of soil moisture sensors (SoilNet) shows that the constrained interpolation approach is superior for representing horizontal soil moisture gradients at the hectometre scale. The study demonstrates how a CRNS network can be used to generate coherent, consistent, and continuous soil moisture patterns that could be used to validate hydrological models or remote sensing products.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{PanekBřežnyHarrisonetal.2022,
  author    = {P{\´a}nek, Tom{\´a}š and Břežn{\´y}, Michal and Harrison, Stephan and Sch{\"o}nfeldt, Elisabeth and Winocur, Diego},
  title     = {Large landslides cluster at the margin of a deglaciated mountain belt},
  series = {Scientific reports},
  volume    = {12},
  journal   = {Scientific reports},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {2045-2322},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41598-022-09357-9},
  pages     = {13},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Landslides in deglaciated and deglaciating mountains represent a major hazard, but their distribution at the spatial scale of entire mountain belts has rarely been studied. Traditional models of landslide distribution assume that landslides are concentrated in the steepest, wettest, and most tectonically active parts of the orogens, where glaciers reached their greatest thickness. However, based on mapping large landslides (>0.9 km(2)) over an unprecedentedly large area of Southern Patagonia (similar to 305,000 km(2)), we show that the distribution of landslides can have the opposite trend. We show that the largest landslides within the limits of the former Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) cluster along its eastern margins occupying lower, tectonically less active, and arid part of the Patagonian Andes. In contrast to the heavily glaciated, highest elevations of the mountain range, the peripheral regions have been glaciated only episodically, leaving a larger volume of unstable sedimentary and volcanic rocks that are subject to ongoing slope instability.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{TrautmannKoiralaCarvalhaisetal.2022,
  author    = {Trautmann, Tina and Koirala, Sujan and Carvalhais, Nuno and G{\"u}ntner, Andreas and Jung, Martin},
  title     = {The importance of vegetation in understanding terrestrial water storage variations},
  series = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
  volume    = {26},
  journal   = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1027-5606},
  doi       = {10.5194/hess-26-1089-2022},
  pages     = {1089 -- 1109},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {So far, various studies have aimed at decomposing the integrated terrestrial water storage variations observed by satellite gravimetry (GRACE, GRACE-FO) with the help of large-scale hydrological models. While the results of the storage decomposition depend on model structure, little attention has been given to the impact of the way that vegetation is represented in these models. Although vegetation structure and activity represent the crucial link between water, carbon, and energy cycles, their representation in large-scale hydrological models remains a major source of uncertainty. At the same time, the increasing availability and quality of Earth-observation-based vegetation data provide valuable information with good prospects for improving model simulations and gaining better insights into the role of vegetation within the global water cycle. In this study, we use observation-based vegetation information such as vegetation indices and rooting depths for spatializing the parameters of a simple global hydrological model to define infiltration, root water uptake, and transpiration processes. The parameters are further constrained by considering observations of terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWS), soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET) and gridded runoff ( Q) estimates in a multi-criteria calibration approach. We assess the implications of including varying vegetation characteristics on the simulation results, with a particular focus on the partitioning between water storage components. To isolate the effect of vegetation, we compare a model experiment in which vegetation parameters vary in space and time to a baseline experiment in which all parameters are calibrated as static, globally uniform values. Both experiments show good overall performance, but explicitly including varying vegetation data leads to even better performance and more physically plausible parameter values. The largest improvements regarding TWS and ET are seen in supply-limited (semi-arid) regions and in the tropics, whereas Q simulations improve mainly in northern latitudes. While the total fluxes and storages are similar, accounting for vegetation substantially changes the contributions of different soil water storage components to the TWS variations. This suggests an important role of the representation of vegetation in hydrological models for interpreting TWS variations. Our simulations further indicate a major effect of deeper moisture storages and groundwater-soil moisture-vegetation interactions as a key to understanding TWS variations. We highlight the need for further observations to identify the adequate model structure rather than only model parameters for a reasonable representation and interpretation of vegetation-water interactions.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{JingKumarHesseetal.2020,
  author    = {Jing, Miao and Kumar, Rohini and Heße, Falk and Thober, Stephan and Rakovec, Oldrich and Samaniego, Luis and Attinger, Sabine},
  title     = {Assessing the response of groundwater quantity and travel time distribution to 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming in a mesoscale central German basin},
  series = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
  volume    = {24},
  journal   = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Copernicus Publ.},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1607-7938},
  doi       = {10.5194/hess-24-1511-2020},
  pages     = {1511 -- 1526},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Groundwater is the biggest single source of high-quality freshwater worldwide, which is also continuously threatened by the changing climate. In this paper, we investigate the response of the regional groundwater system to climate change under three global warming levels (1.5, 2, and 3 ∘C) in a central German basin (N{\"a}gelstedt). This investigation is conducted by deploying an integrated modeling workflow that consists of a mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) and a fully distributed groundwater model, OpenGeoSys (OGS). mHM is forced with climate simulations of five general circulation models under three representative concentration pathways. The diffuse recharges estimated by mHM are used as boundary forcings to the OGS groundwater model to compute changes in groundwater levels and travel time distributions. Simulation results indicate that groundwater recharges and levels are expected to increase slightly under future climate scenarios. Meanwhile, the mean travel time is expected to decrease compared to the historical average. However, the ensemble simulations do not all agree on the sign of relative change. Changes in mean travel time exhibit a larger variability than those in groundwater levels. The ensemble simulations do not show a systematic relationship between the projected change (in both groundwater levels and travel times) and the warming level, but they indicate an increased variability in projected changes with adjusting the enhanced warming level from 1.5 to 3 ∘C. Correspondingly, it is highly recommended to restrain the trend of global warming.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{JingHesseKumaretal.2019,
  author    = {Jing, Miao and Hesse, Falk and Kumar, Rohini and Kolditz, Olaf and Kalbacher, Thomas and Attinger, Sabine},
  title     = {Influence of input and parameter uncertainty on the prediction of catchment-scale groundwater travel time distributions},
  series = {Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS},
  volume    = {23},
  journal   = {Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1027-5606},
  doi       = {10.5194/hess-23-171-2019},
  pages     = {171 -- 190},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Groundwater travel time distributions (TTDs) provide a robust description of the subsurface mixing behavior and hydrological response of a subsurface system. Lagrangian particle tracking is often used to derive the groundwater TTDs. The reliability of this approach is subjected to the uncertainty of external forcings, internal hydraulic properties, and the interplay between them. Here, we evaluate the uncertainty of catchment groundwater TTDs in an agricultural catchment using a 3-D groundwater model with an overall focus on revealing the relationship between external forcing, internal hydraulic properties, and TTD predictions. Eight recharge realizations are sampled from a high-resolution dataset of land surface fluxes and states. Calibration-constrained hydraulic conductivity fields (Ks fields) are stochastically generated using the null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) method for each recharge realization. The random walk particle tracking (RWPT) method is used to track the pathways of particles and compute travel times. Moreover, an analytical model under the random sampling (RS) assumption is fit against the numerical solutions, serving as a reference for the mixing behavior of the model domain. The StorAge Selection (SAS) function is used to interpret the results in terms of quantifying the systematic preference for discharging young/old water. The simulation results reveal the primary effect of recharge on the predicted mean travel time (MTT). The different realizations of calibration-constrained Ks fields moderately magnify or attenuate the predicted MTTs. The analytical model does not properly replicate the numerical solution, and it underestimates the mean travel time. Simulated SAS functions indicate an overall preference for young water for all realizations. The spatial pattern of recharge controls the shape and breadth of simulated TTDs and SAS functions by changing the spatial distribution of particles' pathways. In conclusion, overlooking the spatial nonuniformity and uncertainty of input (forcing) will result in biased travel time predictions. We also highlight the worth of reliable observations in reducing predictive uncertainty and the good interpretability of SAS functions in terms of understanding catchment transport processes.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SchmidtHesseAttingeretal.2020,
  author    = {Schmidt, Lennart and Heße, Falk and Attinger, Sabine and Kumar, Rohini},
  title     = {Challenges in applying machine learning models for hydrological inference: a case study for flooding events across Germany},
  series = {Water Resources Research},
  volume    = {56},
  journal   = {Water Resources Research},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons, Inc.},
  address   = {New Jersey},
  pages     = {10},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Machine learning (ML) algorithms are being increasingly used in Earth and Environmental modeling studies owing to the ever-increasing availability of diverse data sets and computational resources as well as advancement in ML algorithms. Despite advances in their predictive accuracy, the usefulness of ML algorithms for inference remains elusive. In this study, we employ two popular ML algorithms, artificial neural networks and random forest, to analyze a large data set of flood events across Germany with the goals to analyze their predictive accuracy and their usability to provide insights to hydrologic system functioning. The results of the ML algorithms are contrasted against a parametric approach based on multiple linear regression. For analysis, we employ a model-agnostic framework named Permuted Feature Importance to derive the influence of models' predictors. This allows us to compare the results of different algorithms for the first time in the context of hydrology. Our main findings are that (1) the ML models achieve higher prediction accuracy than linear regression, (2) the results reflect basic hydrological principles, but (3) further inference is hindered by the heterogeneity of results across algorithms. Thus, we conclude that the problem of equifinality as known from classical hydrological modeling also exists for ML and severely hampers its potential for inference. To account for the observed problems, we propose that when employing ML for inference, this should be made by using multiple algorithms and multiple methods, of which the latter should be embedded in a cross-validation routine.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RottlerBronstertBuergeretal.2021,
  author    = {Rottler, Erwin and Bronstert, Axel and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Rakovec, Oldrich},
  title     = {Projected changes in Rhine River flood seasonality under global warming},
  series = {Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS / European Geosciences Union},
  volume    = {25},
  journal   = {Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS / European Geosciences Union},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1607-7938},
  doi       = {10.5194/hess-25-2353-2021},
  pages     = {2353 -- 2371},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Climatic change alters the frequency and intensity of natural hazards. In order to assess potential future changes in flood seasonality in the Rhine River Basin, we analyse changes in streamflow, snowmelt, precipitation, and evapotranspiration at 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 ◦C global warming levels. The mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) forced with an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (five general circulation models under three representative concentration pathways) is used to simulate the present and future climate conditions of both, pluvial and nival hydrological regimes. Our results indicate that the interplay between changes in snowmelt- and rainfall-driven runoff is crucial to understand changes in streamflow maxima in the Rhine River. Climate projections suggest that future changes in flood characteristics in the entire Rhine River are controlled by both, more intense precipitation events and diminishing snow packs. The nature of this interplay defines the type of change in runoff peaks. On the sub-basin level (the Moselle River), more intense rainfall during winter is mostly counterbalanced by reduced snowmelt contribution to the streamflow. In the High Rhine (gauge at Basel), the strongest increases in streamflow maxima show up during winter, when strong increases in liquid precipitation intensity encounter almost unchanged snowmelt-driven runoff. The analysis of snowmelt events suggests that at no point in time during the snowmelt season, a warming climate results in an increase in the risk of snowmelt-driven flooding. We do not find indications of a transient merging of pluvial and nival floods due to climate warming.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BilbaoLasaJaraMunozPedojaetal.2020,
  author    = {Bilbao-Lasa, Peru and Jara Mu{\~n}oz, Julius and Pedoja, Kevin and {\´A}lvarez, Irantzu and Aranburu, Arantza and Iriarte, Eneko and Galparsoro, Ibon},
  title     = {Submerged marine terraces identification and an approach for numerical modeling the sequence formation in the Bay of Biscay (Northeastern Iberian Peninsula)},
  series = {Frontiers in Earth Science},
  volume    = {8},
  journal   = {Frontiers in Earth Science},
  number    = {47},
  publisher = {Frontiers Media},
  address   = {Lausanne},
  issn      = {2296-6463},
  doi       = {10.3389/feart.2020.00047},
  pages     = {1 -- 20},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Submerged sequences of marine terraces potentially provide crucial information of past sea-level positions. However, the distribution and characteristics of drowned marine terrace sequences are poorly known at a global scale. Using bathymetric data and novel mapping and modeling techniques, we studied a submerged sequence of marine terraces in the Bay of Biscay with the objective to identify the distribution and morphologies of submerged marine terraces and the timing and conditions that allowed their formation and preservation. To accomplish the objectives a high-resolution bathymetry (5 m) was analyzed using Geographic Information Systems and TerraceM(R). The successive submerged terraces were identified using a Surface Classification Model, which linearly combines the slope and the roughness of the surface to extract fossil sea-cliffs and fossil rocky shore platforms. For that purpose, contour and hillshaded maps were also analyzed. Then, shoreline angles, a geomorphic marker located at the intersection between the fossil sea-cliff and platform, were mapped analyzing swath profiles perpendicular to the isobaths. Most of the submerged strandlines are irregularly preserved throughout the continental shelf. In summary, 12 submerged terraces with their shoreline angles between approximately: -13 m (T1), -30 and -32 m (T2), -34 and 41 m (T3), -44 and -47 m (T4), -49 and 53 m (T5), -55 and 58 m (T6), -59 and 62 m (T7), -65 and 67 m (T8), -68 and 70 m (T9), -74 and -77 m (T10), -83 and -86 m (T11) and -89 and 92 m (T12). Nevertheless, the ones showing the best lateral continuity and preservation in the central part of the shelf are T3, T4, T5, T7, T8, and T10. The age of the terraces has been estimated using a landscape evolution model. To simulate the formation and preservation of submerged terraces three different scenarios: (i) 20-0 ka; (ii) 128-0 ka; and (iii) 128-20 ka, were compared. The best scenario for terrace generation was between 128 and 20 Ka, where T3, T5, and T7 could have been formed.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BryantDaviesSoletal.2022,
  author    = {Bryant, Seth and Davies, Evan and Sol, David and Davis, Sandy},
  title     = {The progression of flood risk in southern Alberta since the 2013 flood},
  series = {Journal of flood risk management},
  volume    = {15},
  journal   = {Journal of flood risk management},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {1753-318X},
  doi       = {10.1111/jfr3.12811},
  pages     = {18},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {After a century of semi-restricted floodplain development, Southern Alberta, Canada, was struck by the devastating 2013 Flood. Aging infrastructure and limited property-level floodproofing likely contributed to the \$4-6 billion (CAD) losses. Following this catastrophe, Alberta has seen a revival in flood management, largely focused on structural protections. However, concurrent with the recent structural work was a 100,000+ increase in Calgary's population in the 5 years following the flood, leading to further densification of high-hazard areas. This study implements the novel Stochastic Object-based Flood damage Dynamic Assessment (SOFDA) model framework to quantify the progression of the direct-damage flood risk in a mature urban neighborhood after the 2013 Flood. Five years of remote-sensing data, property assessment records, and inundation simulations following the flood are used to construct the model. Results show that in these 5 years, vulnerability trends (like densification) have increased flood risk by 4\%; however, recent structural mitigation projects have reduced overall flood risk by 47\% for this case study. These results demonstrate that the flood management revival in Southern Alberta has largely been successful at reducing flood risk; however, the gains are under threat from continued development and densification absent additional floodproofing regulations.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RamachandranRupakhetiLawrence2020,
  author    = {Ramachandran, Srikanthan and Rupakheti, Maheswar and Lawrence, Mark},
  title     = {Aerosol-induced atmospheric heating rate decreases over South and East Asia as a result of changing content and composition},
  series = {Scientific reports},
  volume    = {10},
  journal   = {Scientific reports},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature},
  address   = {[London]},
  issn      = {2045-2322},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41598-020-76936-z},
  pages     = {17},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Aerosol emissions from human activities are extensive and changing rapidly over Asia. Model simulations and satellite observations indicate a dipole pattern in aerosol emissions and loading between South Asia and East Asia, two of the most heavily polluted regions of the world. We examine the previously unexplored diverging trends in the existing dipole pattern of aerosols between East and South Asia using the high quality, two-decade long ground-based time series of observations of aerosol properties from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), from satellites (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)), and from model simulations (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). The data cover the period since 2001 for Kanpur (South Asia) and Beijing (East Asia), two locations taken as being broadly representative of the respective regions. Since 2010 a dipole in aerosol optical depth (AOD) is maintained, but the trend is reversed-the decrease in AOD over Beijing (East Asia) is rapid since 2010, being 17\% less in current decade compared to first decade of twenty-first century, while the AOD over South Asia increased by 12\% during the same period. Furthermore, we find that the aerosol composition is also changing over time. The single scattering albedo (SSA), a measure of aerosol's absorption capacity and related to aerosol composition, is slightly higher over Beijing than Kanpur, and has increased from 0.91 in 2002 to 0.93 in 2017 over Beijing and from 0.89 to 0.92 during the same period over Kanpur, confirming that aerosols in this region have on an average become more scattering in nature. These changes have led to a notable decrease in aerosol-induced atmospheric heating rate (HR) over both regions between the two decades, decreasing considerably more over East Asia (- 31\%) than over South Asia (- 9\%). The annual mean HR is lower now, it is still large (>= 0.6 K per day), which has significant climate implications. The seasonal trends in AOD, SSA and HR are more pronounced than their respective annual trends over both regions. The seasonal trends are caused mainly by the increase/decrease in anthropogenic aerosol emissions (sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon) while the natural aerosols (dust and sea salt) did not change significantly over South and East Asia during the last two decades. The MERRA-2 model is able to simulate the observed trends in AODs well but not the magnitude, while it also did not simulate the SSA values or trends well. These robust findings based on observations of key aerosol parameters and previously unrecognized diverging trends over South and East Asia need to be accounted for in current state-of-the-art climate models to ensure accurate quantification of the complex and evolving impact of aerosols on the regional climate over Asia.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DietzeBellOeztuerketal.2022,
  author    = {Dietze, Michael and Bell, Rainer and {\"O}zt{\"u}rk, Ugur and Cook, Kristen L. and Andermann, Christoff and Beer, Alexander R. and Damm, Bodo and Lucia, Ana and Fauer, Felix S. and Nissen, Katrin M. and Sieg, Tobias and Thieken, Annegret H.},
  title     = {More than heavy rain turning into fast-flowing water - a landscape perspective on the 2021 Eifel floods},
  series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  volume    = {22},
  journal   = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1561-8633},
  doi       = {10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022},
  pages     = {1845 -- 1856},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Rapidly evolving floods are rare but powerful drivers of landscape reorganisation that have severe and long-lasting impacts on both the functions of a landscape's subsystems and the affected society. The July 2021 flood that particularly hit several river catchments of the Eifel region in western Germany and Belgium was a drastic example. While media and scientists highlighted the meteorological and hydrological aspects of this flood, it was not just the rising water levels in the main valleys that posed a hazard, caused damage, and drove environmental reorganisation. Instead, the concurrent coupling of landscape elements and the wood, sediment, and debris carried by the fast-flowing water made this flood so devastating and difficult to predict. Because more intense floods are able to interact with more landscape components, they at times reveal rare non-linear feedbacks, which may be hidden during smaller events due to their high thresholds of initiation. Here, we briefly review the boundary conditions of the 14-15 July 2021 flood and discuss the emerging features that made this event different from previous floods. We identify hillslope processes, aspects of debris mobilisation, the legacy of sustained human land use, and emerging process connections and feedbacks as critical non-hydrological dimensions of the flood. With this landscape scale perspective, we develop requirements for improved future event anticipation, mitigation, and fundamental system understanding.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HerzschuhCaoLaeppleetal.2019,
  author    = {Herzschuh, Ulrike and Cao, Xianyong and Laepple, Thomas and Dallmeyer, Anne and Telford, Richard J. and Ni, Jian and Chen, Fahu and Kong, Zhaochen and Liu, Guangxiu and Liu, Kam-Biu and Liu, Xingqi and Stebich, Martina and Tang, Lingyu and Tian, Fang and Wang, Yongbo and Wischnewski, Juliane and Xu, Qinghai and Yan, Shun and Yang, Zhenjing and Yu, Ge and Zhang, Yun and Zhao, Yan and Zheng, Zhuo},
  title     = {Position and orientation of the westerly jet determined Holocene rainfall patterns in China},
  series = {Nature Communications},
  volume    = {10},
  journal   = {Nature Communications},
  publisher = {Nature Publ. Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {2041-1723},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41467-019-09866-8},
  pages     = {8},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Proxy-based reconstructions and modeling of Holocene spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for China and Mongolia have hitherto yielded contradictory results indicating that the basic mechanisms behind the East Asian Summer Monsoon and its interaction with the westerly jet stream remain poorly understood. We present quantitative reconstructions of Holocene precipitation derived from 101 fossil pollen records and analyse them with the help of a minimal empirical model. We show that the westerly jet-stream axis shifted gradually southward and became less tilted since the middle Holocene. This was tracked by the summer monsoon rain band resulting in an early-Holocene precipitation maximum over most of western China, a mid-Holocene maximum in north-central and northeastern China, and a late-Holocene maximum in southeastern China. Our results suggest that a correct simulation of the orientation and position of the westerly jet stream is crucial to the reliable prediction of precipitation patterns in China and Mongolia.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DietzeMangelsdorfAndreevetal.2020,
  author    = {Dietze, Elisabeth and Mangelsdorf, Kai and Andreev, Andrei and Karger, Cornelia and Schreuder, Laura T. and Hopmans, Ellen C. and Rach, Oliver and Sachse, Dirk and Wennrich, Volker and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Relationships between low-temperature fires, climate and vegetation during three late glacials and interglacials of the last 430 kyr in northeastern Siberia reconstructed from monosaccharide anhydrides in Lake El'gygytgyn sediments},
  series = {Climate of the Past},
  volume    = {16},
  journal   = {Climate of the Past},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1814-9332},
  doi       = {10.5194/cp-16-799-2020},
  pages     = {788 -- 818},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Landscapes in high northern latitudes are assumed to be highly sensitive to future global change, but the rates and long-term trajectories of changes are rather uncertain. In the boreal zone, fires are an important factor in climate-vegetation interactions and biogeochemical cycles. Fire regimes are characterized by small, frequent, low-intensity fires within summergreen boreal forests dominated by larch, whereas evergreen boreal forests dominated by spruce and pine burn large areas less frequently but at higher intensities. Here, we explore the potential of the monosaccharide anhydrides (MA) levoglucosan, mannosan and galactosan to serve as proxies of low-intensity biomass burning in glacial-to-interglacial lake sediments from the high northern latitudes. We use sediments from Lake El'gygytgyn (cores PG 1351 and ICDP 5011-1), located in the far north-east of Russia, and study glacial and interglacial samples of the last 430 kyr (marine isotope stages 5e, 6, 7e, 8, 11c and 12) that had different climate and biome configurations. Combined with pollen and non-pollen palynomorph records from the same samples, we assess how far the modern relationships between fire, climate and vegetation persisted during the past, on orbital to centennial timescales. We find that MAs attached to particulates were well-preserved in up to 430 kyr old sediments with higher influxes from low-intensity biomass burning in interglacials compared to glacials. MA influxes significantly increase when summergreen boreal forest spreads closer to the lake, whereas they decrease when tundra-steppe environments and, especially, Sphagnum peatlands spread. This suggests that low-temperature fires are a typical characteristic of Siberian larch forests also on long timescales. The results also suggest that low-intensity fires would be reduced by vegetation shifts towards very dry environments due to reduced biomass availability, as well as by shifts towards peatlands, which limits fuel dryness. In addition, we observed very low MA ratios, which we interpret as high contributions of galactosan and mannosan from biomass sources other than those currently monitored, such as the moss-lichen mats in the understorey of the summergreen boreal forest. Overall, sedimentary MAs can provide a powerful proxy for fire regime reconstructions and extend our knowledge of long-term natural fire-climate-vegetation feedbacks in the high northern latitudes.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MiesnerHerzschuhPestryakovaetal.2022,
  author    = {Miesner, Timon and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Wieczorek, Mareike and Zakharov, Evgenii S. and Kolmogorov, Alexei I. and Davydova, Paraskovya V. and Kruse, Stefan},
  title     = {Forest structure and individual tree inventories of northeastern Siberia along climatic gradients},
  series = {Earth system science data : ESSD},
  volume    = {14},
  journal   = {Earth system science data : ESSD},
  number    = {12},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1866-3508},
  doi       = {10.5194/essd-14-5695-2022},
  pages     = {5695 -- 5716},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {We compile a data set of forest surveys from expeditions to the northeast of the Russian Federation, in Krasnoyarsk Krai, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (59-73 degrees N, 97-169 degrees E), performed between the years 2011 and 2021. The region is characterized by permafrost soils and forests dominated by larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr. and Larix cajanderi Mayr). Our data set consists of a plot database describing 226 georeferenced vegetation survey plots and a tree database with information about all the trees on these plots. The tree database, consisting of two tables with the same column names, contains information on the height, species, and vitality of 40 289 trees. A subset of the trees was subject to a more detailed inventory, which recorded the stem diameter at base and at breast height, crown diameter, and height of the beginning of the crown. We recorded heights up to 28.5 m (median 2.5 m) and stand densities up to 120 000 trees per hectare (median 1197 ha(-1)), with both values tending to be higher in the more southerly areas. Observed taxa include Larix Mill., Pinus L., Picea A. Dietr., Abies Mill., Salix L., Betula L., Populus L., Alnus Mill., and Ulmus L. In this study, we present the forest inventory data aggregated per plot. Additionally, we connect the data with different remote sensing data products to find out how accurately forest structure can be predicted from such products. Allometries were calculated to obtain the diameter from height measurements for every species group. For Larix, the most frequent of 10 species groups, allometries depended also on the stand density, as denser stands are characterized by thinner trees, relative to height. The remote sensing products used to compare against the inventory data include climate, forest biomass, canopy height, and forest loss or disturbance. We find that the forest metrics measured in the field can only be reconstructed from the remote sensing data to a limited extent, as they depend on local properties. This illustrates the need for ground inventories like those data we present here. The data can be used for studying the forest structure of northeastern Siberia and for the calibration and validation of remotely sensed data.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KruseStuenziBoikeetal.2022,
  author    = {Kruse, Stefan and St{\"u}nzi, Simone Maria and Boike, Julia and Langer, Moritz and Gloy, Josias and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Novel coupled permafrost-forest model (LAVESI-CryoGrid v1.0) revealing the interplay between permafrost, vegetation, and climate across eastern Siberia},
  series = {Geoscientific model development : GMD ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
  volume    = {15},
  journal   = {Geoscientific model development : GMD ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1991-959X},
  doi       = {10.5194/gmd-15-2395-2022},
  pages     = {2395 -- 2422},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Boreal forests of Siberia play a relevant role in the global carbon cycle. However, global warming threatens the existence of summergreen larch-dominated ecosystems, likely enabling a transition to evergreen tree taxa with deeper active layers. Complex permafrost-vegetation interactions make it uncertain whether these ecosystems could develop into a carbon source rather than continuing atmospheric carbon sequestration under global warming. Consequently, shedding light on the role of current and future active layer dynamics and the feedbacks with the apparent tree species is crucial to predict boreal forest transition dynamics and thus for aboveground forest biomass and carbon stock developments. Hence, we established a coupled model version amalgamating a one-dimensional permafrost multilayer forest land-surface model (CryoGrid) with LAVESI, an individual-based and spatially explicit forest model for larch species (Larix Mill.), extended for this study by including other relevant Siberian forest species and explicit terrain. <br /> Following parameterization, we ran simulations with the coupled version to the near future to 2030 with a mild climate-warming scenario. We focus on three regions covering a gradient of summergreen forests in the east at Spasskaya Pad, mixed summergreen-evergreen forests close to Nyurba, and the warmest area at Lake Khamra in the southeast of Yakutia, Russia. Coupled simulations were run with the newly implemented boreal forest species and compared to runs allowing only one species at a time, as well as to simulations using just LAVESI. Results reveal that the coupled version corrects for overestimation of active layer thickness (ALT) and soil moisture, and large differences in established forests are simulated. We conclude that the coupled version can simulate the complex environment of eastern Siberia by reproducing vegetation patterns, making it an excellent tool to disentangle processes driving boreal forest dynamics.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RadosavljevicLantuitKnoblauchetal.2022,
  author    = {Radosavljevic, Boris and Lantuit, Hugues and Knoblauch, Christian and Couture, Nicole and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Fritz, Michael},
  title     = {Arctic nearshore sediment dynamics - an example from Herschel Island - Qikiqtaruk, Canada},
  series = {Journal of marine science and engineering},
  volume    = {10},
  journal   = {Journal of marine science and engineering},
  number    = {11},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {2077-1312},
  doi       = {10.3390/jmse10111589},
  pages     = {18},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Increasing arctic coastal erosion rates imply a greater release of sediments and organic matter into the coastal zone. With 213 sediment samples taken around Herschel Island-Qikiqtaruk, Canadian Beaufort Sea, we aimed to gain new insights on sediment dynamics and geochemical properties of a shallow arctic nearshore zone. Spatial characteristics of nearshore sediment texture (moderately to poorly sorted silt) are dictated by hydrodynamic processes, but ice-related processes also play a role. We determined organic matter (OM) distribution and inferred the origin and quality of organic carbon by C/N ratios and stable carbon isotopes delta C-13. The carbon content was higher offshore and in sheltered areas (mean: 1.0 wt.\%., S.D.: 0.9) and the C/N ratios also showed a similar spatial pattern (mean: 11.1, S.D.: 3.1), while the delta C-13 (mean: -26.4 parts per thousand VPDB, S.D.: 0.4) distribution was more complex. We compared the geochemical parameters of our study with terrestrial and marine samples from other studies using a bootstrap approach. Sediments of the current study contained 6.5 times and 1.8 times less total organic carbon than undisturbed and disturbed terrestrial sediments, respectively. Therefore, degradation of OM and separation of carbon pools take place on land and continue in the nearshore zone, where OM is leached, mineralized, or transported beyond the study area.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DallmeyerKleinenClaussenetal.2022,
  author    = {Dallmeyer, Anne and Kleinen, Thomas and Claussen, Martin and Weitzel, Nils and Cao, Xianyong and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {The deglacial forest conundrum},
  series = {Nature Communications},
  volume    = {13},
  journal   = {Nature Communications},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Nature Publishing Group UK},
  address   = {[London]},
  issn      = {2041-1723},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41467-022-33646-6},
  pages     = {10},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {How fast the Northern Hemisphere (NH) forest biome tracks strongly warming climates is largely unknown. Regional studies reveal lags between decades and millennia. Here we report a conundrum: Deglacial forest expansion in the NH extra-tropics occurs approximately 4000 years earlier in a transient MPI-ESM1.2 simulation than shown by pollen-based biome reconstructions. Shortcomings in the model and the reconstructions could both contribute to this mismatch, leaving the underlying causes unresolved. The simulated vegetation responds within decades to simulated climate changes, which agree with pollen-independent reconstructions. Thus, we can exclude climate biases as main driver for differences. Instead, the mismatch points at a multi-millennial disequilibrium of the NH forest biome to the climate signal. Therefore, the evaluation of time-slice simulations in strongly changing climates with pollen records should be critically reassessed. Our results imply that NH forests may be responding much slower to ongoing climate changes than Earth System Models predict. <br /> Deglacial forest expansion in the Northern Hemisphere poses a conundrum: Model results agree with the climate signal but are several millennia ahead of reconstructed forest dynamics. The underlying causes remain unsolved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KruseHerzschuh2022,
  author    = {Kruse, Stefan and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years},
  series = {eLife},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {eLife},
  publisher = {eLife Sciences Publications},
  address   = {Cambridge},
  issn      = {2050-084X},
  doi       = {10.7554/eLife.75163},
  pages     = {24},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {The biodiversity of tundra areas in northern high latitudes is threatened by invasion of forests under global warming. However, poorly understood nonlinear responses of the treeline ecotone mean the timing and extent of tundra losses are unclear, but policymakers need such information to optimize conservation efforts. Our individual-based model LAVESI, developed for the Siberian tundra-taiga ecotone, can help improve our understanding. Consequently, we simulated treeline migration trajectories until the end of the millennium, causing a loss of tundra area when advancing north. Our simulations reveal that the treeline follows climate warming with a severe, century-long time lag, which is overcompensated by infilling of stands in the long run even when temperatures cool again. Our simulations reveal that only under ambitious mitigation strategies (relative concentration pathway 2.6) will ~30\% of original tundra areas remain in the north but separated into two disjunct refugia.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{LiPostlBoehmeretal.2022,
  author    = {Li, Chenzhi and Postl, Alexander K. and B{\"o}hmer, Thomas and Cao, Xianyong and Dolman, Andrew M. and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Harmonized chronologies of a global late Quaternary pollen dataset (LegacyAge 1.0)},
  series = {Earth system science data : ESSD},
  volume    = {14},
  journal   = {Earth system science data : ESSD},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Copernics Publications},
  address   = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
  issn      = {1866-3508},
  doi       = {10.5194/essd-14-1331-2022},
  pages     = {1331 -- 1343},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {We present a chronology framework named LegacyAge 1.0 containing harmonized chronologies for 2831 pollen records (downloaded from the Neotoma Paleoecology Database and the supplementary Asian datasets) together with their age control points and metadata in machine-readable data formats. All chronologies use the Bayesian framework implemented in Bacon version 2.5.3. Optimal parameter settings of priors (accumulation.shape, memory.strength, memory.mean, accumulation.rate, and thickness) were identified based on information in the original publication or iteratively after preliminary model inspection. The most common control points for the chronologies are radiocarbon dates (86.1 \%), calibrated by the latest calibration curves (IntCal20 and SHCal20 for the terrestrial radiocarbon dates in the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere and Marine20 for marine materials). The original publications were consulted when dealing with outliers and inconsistencies. Several major challenges when setting up the chronologies included the waterline issue (18.8\% of records), reservoir effect (4.9 \%), and sediment deposition discontinuity (4.4 \%). Finally, we numerically compare the LegacyAge 1.0 chronologies to those published in the original publications and show that the reliability of the chronologies of 95.4\% of records could be improved according to our assessment. Our chronology framework and revised chronologies provide the opportunity to make use of the ages and age uncertainties in synthesis studies of, for example, pollen-based vegetation and climate change. The LegacyAge 1.0 dataset, including metadata, datings, harmonized chronologies, and R code used, is openaccess and available at PANGAEA (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.933132; Li et al., 2021) and Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5815192; Li et al., 2022), respectively.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CourtinAndreevRaschkeetal.2021,
  author    = {Courtin, J{\´e}r{\´e}my and Andreev, Andrei and Raschke, Elena and Bala, Sarah and Biskaborn, Boris and Liu, Sisi and Zimmermann, Heike and Diekmann, Bernhard and Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen R. and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Vegetation changes in Southeastern Siberia during the late pleistocene and the holocene},
  series = {Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution},
  volume    = {9},
  journal   = {Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution},
  publisher = {Frontiers Media},
  address   = {Lausanne},
  issn      = {2296-701X},
  doi       = {10.3389/fevo.2021.625096},
  pages     = {18},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Relationships between climate, species composition, and species richness are of particular importance for understanding how boreal ecosystems will respond to ongoing climate change. This study aims to reconstruct changes in terrestrial vegetation composition and taxa richness during the glacial Late Pleistocene and the interglacial Holocene in the sparsely studied southeastern Yakutia (Siberia) by using pollen and sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) records. Pollen and sedaDNA metabarcoding data using the trnL g and h markers were obtained from a sediment core from Lake Bolshoe Toko. Both proxies were used to reconstruct the vegetation composition, while metabarcoding data were also used to investigate changes in plant taxa richness. The combination of pollen and sedaDNA approaches allows a robust estimation of regional and local past terrestrial vegetation composition around Bolshoe Toko during the last similar to 35,000 years. Both proxies suggest that during the Late Pleistocene, southeastern Siberia was covered by open steppe-tundra dominated by graminoids and forbs with patches of shrubs, confirming that steppe-tundra extended far south in Siberia. Both proxies show disturbance at the transition between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene suggesting a period with scarce vegetation, changes in the hydrochemical conditions in the lake, and in sedimentation rates. Both proxies document drastic changes in vegetation composition in the early Holocene with an increased number of trees and shrubs and the appearance of new tree taxa in the lake's vicinity. The sedaDNA method suggests that the Late Pleistocene steppe-tundra vegetation supported a higher number of terrestrial plant taxa than the forested Holocene. This could be explained, for example, by the "keystone herbivore" hypothesis, which suggests that Late Pleistocene megaherbivores were able to maintain a high plant diversity. This is discussed in the light of the data with the broadly accepted species-area hypothesis as steppe-tundra covered such an extensive area during the Late Pleistocene.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{GluecklerHerzschuhKruseetal.2021,
  author    = {Gl{\"u}ckler, Ramesh and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Kruse, Stefan and Andreev, Andrei and Vyse, Stuart Andrew and Winkler, Bettina and Biskaborn, Boris and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Dietze, Elisabeth},
  title     = {Wildfire history of the boreal forest of south-western Yakutia (Siberia) over the last two millennia documented by a lake-sediment charcoal record},
  series = {Biogeosciences : BG / European Geosciences Union},
  volume    = {18},
  journal   = {Biogeosciences : BG / European Geosciences Union},
  number    = {13},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1726-4170},
  doi       = {10.5194/bg-18-4185-2021},
  pages     = {4185 -- 4209},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Wildfires, as a key disturbance in forest ecosystems, are shaping the world's boreal landscapes. Changes in fire regimes are closely linked to a wide array of environmental factors, such as vegetation composition, climate change, and human activity. Arctic and boreal regions and, in particular, Siberian boreal forests are experiencing rising air and ground temperatures with the subsequent degradation of permafrost soils leading to shifts in tree cover and species composition. Compared to the boreal zones of North America or Europe, little is known about how such environmental changes might influence long-term fire regimes in Russia. The larch-dominated eastern Siberian deciduous boreal forests differ markedly from the composition of other boreal forests, yet data about past fire regimes remain sparse. Here, we present a high-resolution macroscopic charcoal record from lacustrine sediments of Lake Khamra (southwest Yakutia, Siberia) spanning the last ca. 2200 years, including information about charcoal particle sizes and morphotypes. Our results reveal a phase of increased charcoal accumulation between 600 and 900 CE, indicative of relatively high amounts of burnt biomass and high fire frequencies. This is followed by an almost 900-year-long period of low charcoal accumulation without significant peaks likely corresponding to cooler climate conditions. After 1750 CE fire frequencies and the relative amount of biomass burnt start to increase again, coinciding with a warming climate and increased anthropogenic land development after Russian colonization. In the 20th century, total charcoal accumulation decreases again to very low levels despite higher fire frequency, potentially reflecting a change in fire management strategies and/or a shift of the fire regime towards more frequent but smaller fires. A similar pattern for different charcoal morphotypes and comparison to a pollen and non-pollen palynomorph (NPP) record from the same sediment core indicate that broad-scale changes in vegetation composition were probably not a major driver of recorded fire regime changes. Instead, the fire regime of the last two millennia at Lake Khamra seems to be controlled mainly by a combination of short-term climate variability and anthropogenic fire ignition and suppression.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{LiuStoofLeichsenringKruseetal.2020,
  author    = {Liu, Sisi and Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie and Kruse, Stefan and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Holocene vegetation and plant diversity changes in the north-eastern Siberian treeline region from pollen and sedimentary ancient DNA},
  series = {Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution},
  volume    = {8},
  journal   = {Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution},
  publisher = {Frontiers Media},
  address   = {Lausanne},
  issn      = {2296-701X},
  doi       = {10.3389/fevo.2020.560243},
  pages     = {17},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Although sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) has been increasingly used to study paleoecological dynamics (Schulte et al., 2020), the approach has rarely been compared with the traditional method of pollen analysis for investigating past changes in the vegetation composition and diversity of Arctic treeline areas. Here, we provide a history of latitudinal floristic composition and species diversity based on a comparison ofsedaDNA and pollen data archived in three Siberian lake sediment cores spanning the mid-Holocene to the present (7.6-0 cal ka BP), from northern typical tundra to southern open larch forest in the Omoloy region. Our results show that thesedaDNA approach identifies more plant taxa found in the local vegetation communities, while the corresponding pollen analysis mainly captures the regional vegetation development and has its limitations for plant diversity reconstruction. Measures of alpha diversity were calculated based onsedaDNA data recovered from along a tundra to forest tundra to open larch forest gradient. Across all sites,sedaDNA archives provide a complementary record of the vegetation transition within each lake's catchment, tracking a distinct latitudinal vegetation type range from larch tree/alder shrub (open larch forest site) to dwarf shrub-steppe (forest tundra) to wet sedge tundra (typical tundra site). By contrast, the pollen data reveal an open landscape, which cannot distinguish the temporal changes in compositional vegetation for the open larch forest site and forest-tundra site. IncreasingLarixpollen percentages were recorded in the forest-tundra site in the last millenium although noLarixDNA was detected, suggesting that thesedaDNA approach performs better for tracking the local establishment ofLarix. Highest species richness and diversity are found in the mid-Holocene (before 4.4 ka) at the typical tundra site with a diverse range of vegetational habitats, while lowest species richness is recorded for the forest tundra where dwarf-willow habitats dominated the lake's catchment. During the late Holocene, strong declines in species richness and diversity are found at the typical tundra site with the vegetation changing to relatively simple communities. Nevertheless, plant species richness is mostly higher than at the forest-tundra site, which shows a slightly decreasing trend. Plant species richness at the open larch forest site fluctuates through time and is higher than the other sites since around 2.5 ka. Taken together, there is no evidence to suggest that the latitudinal gradients in species diversity changes are present at a millennial scale. Additionally, a weak correlation between the principal component analysis (PCA) site scores ofsedaDNA and species richness suggests that climate may not be a direct driver of species turnover within a lake's catchment. Our data suggest thatsedaDNA and pollen have different but complementary abilities for reconstructing past vegetation and species diversity along a latitude.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CaoTianAndreevetal.2020,
  author    = {Cao, Xianyong and Tian, Fang and Andreev, Andrei and Anderson, Patricia M. and Lozhkin, Anatoly V. and Bezrukova, Elena and Ni, Jian and Rudaya, Natalia and Stobbe, Astrid and Wieczorek, Mareike and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {A taxonomically harmonized and temporally standardized fossil pollen dataset from Siberia covering the last 40 kyr},
  series = {Earth System Science Data},
  volume    = {12},
  journal   = {Earth System Science Data},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Copernics Publications},
  address   = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
  issn      = {1866-3508},
  doi       = {10.5194/essd-12-119-2020},
  pages     = {119 -- 135},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Pollen records from Siberia are mostly absent in global or Northern Hemisphere synthesis works. Here we present a taxonomically harmonized and temporally standardized pollen dataset that was synthesized using 173 palynological records from Siberia and adjacent areas (northeastern Asia, 42-75 degrees N, 50-180 degrees E). Pollen data were taxonomically harmonized, i.e. the original 437 taxa were assigned to 106 combined pollen taxa. Age-depth models for all records were revised by applying a constant Bayesian age-depth modelling routine. The pollen dataset is available as count data and percentage data in a table format (taxa vs. samples), with age information for each sample. The dataset has relatively few sites covering the last glacial period between 40 and 11.5 ka (calibrated thousands of years before 1950 CE) particularly from the central and western part of the study area. In the Holocene period, the dataset has many sites from most of the area, with the exception of the central part of Siberia. Of the 173 pollen records, 81 \% of pollen counts were downloaded from open databases (GPD, EPD, PANGAEA) and 10 \% were contributions by the original data gatherers, while a few were digitized from publications. Most of the pollen records originate from peatlands (48 \%) and lake sediments (33 \%). Most of the records (83 \%) have >= 3 dates, allowing the establishment of reliable chronologies. The dataset can be used for various purposes, including pollen data mapping (example maps for Larix at selected time slices are shown) as well as quantitative climate and vegetation reconstructions. The datasets for pollen counts and pollen percentages are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.898616 (Cao et al., 2019a), also including the site information, data source, original publication, dating data, and the plant functional type for each pollen taxa.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SchmidtFranckeRottleretal.2022,
  author    = {Schmidt, Lena Katharina and Francke, Till and Rottler, Erwin and Blume, Theresa and Sch{\"o}ber, Johannes and Bronstert, Axel},
  title     = {Suspended sediment and discharge dynamics in a glaciated alpine environment},
  series = {Earth surface dynamics},
  volume    = {10},
  journal   = {Earth surface dynamics},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {2196-632X},
  doi       = {10.5194/esurf-10-653-2022},
  pages     = {653 -- 669},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Glaciated high-alpine areas are fundamentally altered by climate change, with well-known implications for hydrology, e.g., due to glacier retreat, longer snow-free periods, and more frequent and intense summer rainstorms. While knowledge on how these hydrological changes will propagate to suspended sediment dynamics is still scarce, it is needed to inform mitigation and adaptation strategies. To understand the processes and source areas most relevant to sediment dynamics, we analyzed discharge and sediment dynamics in high temporal resolution as well as their patterns on several spatial scales, which to date few studies have done. We used a nested catchment setup in the Upper {\"O}tztal in Tyrol, Austria, where high-resolution (15 min) time series of discharge and suspended sediment concentrations are available for up to 15 years (2006-2020). The catchments of the gauges in Vent, S{\"o}lden and Tumpen range from 100 to almost 800 km2 with 10 \% to 30 \% glacier cover and span an elevation range of 930 to 3772 m a.s.l. We analyzed discharge and suspended sediment yields (SSY), their distribution in space, their seasonality and spatial differences therein, and the relative importance of short-term events. We complemented our analysis by linking the observations to satellite-based snow cover maps, glacier inventories, mass balances and precipitation data. Our results indicate that the areas above 2500 m a.s.l., characterized by glacier tongues and the most recently deglaciated areas, are crucial for sediment generation in all sub-catchments. This notion is supported by the synchronous spring onset of sediment export at the three gauges, which coincides with snowmelt above 2500 m but lags behind spring discharge onsets. This points at a limitation of suspended sediment supply as long as the areas above 2500 m are snow-covered. The positive correlation of annual SSY with glacier cover (among catchments) and glacier mass balances (within a catchment) further supports the importance of the glacier-dominated areas. The analysis of short-term events showed that summer precipitation events were associated with peak sediment concentrations and yields but on average accounted for only 21 \% of the annual SSY in the headwaters. These results indicate that under current conditions, thermally induced sediment export (through snow and glacier melt) is dominant in the study area. Our results extend the scientific knowledge on current hydro-sedimentological conditions in glaciated high-alpine areas and provide a baseline for studies on projected future changes in hydro-sedimentological system dynamics.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WalchSinghSoreideetal.2022,
  author    = {Walch, Daniela M. R. and Singh, Rakesh K. and Soreide, Janne E. and Lantuit, Hugues and Poste, Amanda},
  title     = {Spatio-temporal variability of suspended particulate matter in a high-arctic estuary (Adventfjorden, Svalbard) using sentinel-2 time-series},
  series = {Remote sensing},
  volume    = {14},
  journal   = {Remote sensing},
  number    = {13},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {2072-4292},
  doi       = {10.3390/rs14133123},
  pages     = {22},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Arctic coasts, which feature land-ocean transport of freshwater, sediments, and other terrestrial material, are impacted by climate change, including increased temperatures, melting glaciers, changes in precipitation and runoff. These trends are assumed to affect productivity in fjordic estuaries. However, the spatial extent and temporal variation of the freshwater-driven darkening of fjords remain unresolved. The present study illustrates the spatio-temporal variability of suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the Adventfjorden estuary, Svalbard, using in-situ field campaigns and ocean colour remote sensing (OCRS) via high-resolution Sentinel-2 imagery. To compute SPM concentration (C-SPMsat), a semi-analytical algorithm was regionally calibrated using local in-situ data, which improved the accuracy of satellite-derived SPM concentration by similar to 20\% (MRD). Analysis of SPM concentration for two consecutive years (2019, 2020) revealed strong seasonality of SPM in Adventfjorden. Highest estimated SPM concentrations and river plume extent (\% of fjord with C-SPMsat > 30 mg L-1) occurred during June, July, and August. Concurrently, we observed a strong relationship between river plume extent and average air temperature over the 24 h prior to the observation (R-2 = 0.69). Considering predicted changes to environmental conditions in the Arctic region, this study highlights the importance of the rapidly changing environmental parameters and the significance of remote sensing in analysing fluxes in light attenuating particles, especially in the coastal Arctic Ocean.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{VehLuetzowKharlamovaetal.2022,
  author    = {Veh, Georg and L{\"u}tzow, Natalie and Kharlamova, Varvara and Petrakov, Dmitry and Hugonnet, Romain and Korup, Oliver},
  title     = {Trends, Breaks, and Biases in the Frequency of Reported Glacier Lake Outburst Floods},
  series = {Earth's Future},
  volume    = {10},
  journal   = {Earth's Future},
  edition   = {3},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken, New Jersey},
  issn      = {2328-4277},
  doi       = {10.1029/2021EF002426},
  pages     = {1 -- 14},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Thousands of glacier lakes have been forming behind natural dams in high mountains following glacier retreat since the early 20th century. Some of these lakes abruptly released pulses of water and sediment with disastrous downstream consequences. Yet it remains unclear whether the reported rise of these glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) has been fueled by a warming atmosphere and enhanced meltwater production, or simply a growing research effort. Here we estimate trends and biases in GLOF reporting based on the largest global catalog of 1,997 dated glacier-related floods in six major mountain ranges from 1901 to 2017. We find that the positive trend in the number of reported GLOFs has decayed distinctly after a break in the 1970s, coinciding with independently detected trend changes in annual air temperatures and in the annual number of field-based glacier surveys (a proxy of scientific reporting). We observe that GLOF reports and glacier surveys decelerated, while temperature rise accelerated in the past five decades. Enhanced warming alone can thus hardly explain the annual number of reported GLOFs, suggesting that temperature-driven glacier lake formation, growth, and failure are weakly coupled, or that outbursts have been overlooked. Indeed, our analysis emphasizes a distinct geographic and temporal bias in GLOF reporting, and we project that between two to four out of five GLOFs on average might have gone unnoticed in the early to mid-20th century. We recommend that such biases should be considered, or better corrected for, when attributing the frequency of reported GLOFs to atmospheric warming.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HeistermannBogenaFranckeetal.2022,
  author    = {Heistermann, Maik and Bogena, Heye and Francke, Till and G{\"u}ntner, Andreas and Jakobi, Jannis and Rasche, Daniel and Schr{\"o}n, Martin and D{\"o}pper, Veronika and Fersch, Benjamin and Groh, Jannis and Patil, Amol and P{\"u}tz, Thomas and Reich, Marvin and Zacharias, Steffen and Zengerle, Carmen and Oswald, Sascha},
  title     = {Soil moisture observation in a forested headwater catchment: combining a dense cosmic-ray neutron sensor network with roving and hydrogravimetry at the TERENO site W{\"u}stebach},
  series = {Earth system science data : ESSD},
  volume    = {14},
  journal   = {Earth system science data : ESSD},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
  issn      = {1866-3516},
  doi       = {10.5194/essd-14-2501-2022},
  pages     = {2501 -- 2519},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) has become an effective method to measure soil moisture at a horizontal scale of hundreds of metres and a depth of decimetres. Recent studies proposed operating CRNS in a network with overlapping footprints in order to cover root-zone water dynamics at the small catchment scale and, at the same time, to represent spatial heterogeneity. In a joint field campaign from September to November 2020 (JFC-2020), five German research institutions deployed 15 CRNS sensors in the 0.4 km2 W{\"u}stebach catchment (Eifel mountains, Germany). The catchment is dominantly forested (but includes a substantial fraction of open vegetation) and features a topographically distinct catchment boundary. In addition to the dense CRNS coverage, the campaign featured a unique combination of additional instruments and techniques: hydro-gravimetry (to detect water storage dynamics also below the root zone); ground-based and, for the first time, airborne CRNS roving; an extensive wireless soil sensor network, supplemented by manual measurements; and six weighable lysimeters. Together with comprehensive data from the long-term local research infrastructure, the published data set (available at https://doi.org/10.23728/b2share.756ca0485800474e9dc7f5949c63b872; Heistermann et al., 2022) will be a valuable asset in various research contexts: to advance the retrieval of landscape water storage from CRNS, wireless soil sensor networks, or hydrogravimetry; to identify scale-specific combinations of sensors and methods to represent soil moisture variability; to improve the understanding and simulation of land-atmosphere exchange as well as hydrological and hydrogeological processes at the hillslope and the catchment scale; and to support the retrieval of soil water content from airborne and spaceborne remote sensing platforms.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SchulteMeucciStoofLeichsenringetal.2022,
  author    = {Schulte, Luise and Meucci, Stefano and Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen R. and Heitkam, Tony and Schmidt, Nicola and von Hippel, Barbara and Andreev, Andrei A. and Diekmann, Bernhard and Biskaborn, Boris and Wagner, Bernd and Melles, Martin and Pestryakova, Lyudmila A. and Alsos, Inger G. and Clarke, Charlotte and Krutovsky, Konstantin and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Larix species range dynamics in Siberia since the Last Glacial captured from sedimentary ancient DNA},
  series = {Communications biology},
  volume    = {5},
  journal   = {Communications biology},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Springer Nature},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {2399-3642},
  doi       = {10.1038/s42003-022-03455-0},
  pages     = {11},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Climate change is expected to cause major shifts in boreal forests which are in vast areas of Siberia dominated by two species of the deciduous needle tree larch (Larix). The species differ markedly in their ecosystem functions, thus shifts in their respective ranges are of global relevance. However, drivers of species distribution are not well understood, in part because paleoecological data at species level are lacking. This study tracks Larix species distribution in time and space using target enrichment on sedimentary ancient DNA extracts from eight lakes across Siberia. We discovered that Larix sibirica, presently dominating in western Siberia, likely migrated to its northern distribution area only in the Holocene at around 10,000 years before present (ka BP), and had a much wider eastern distribution around 33 ka BP. Samples dated to the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21 ka BP), consistently show genotypes of L. gmelinii. Our results suggest climate as a strong determinant of species distribution in Larix and provide temporal and spatial data for species projection in a changing climate. Using ancient sedimentary DNA from up to 50 kya, dramatic distributional shifts are documented in two dominant boreal larch species, likely guided by environmental changes suggesting climate as a strong determinant of species distribution.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RomeroBarbosaCoelhoScheiffeleetal.2021,
  author    = {Romero Barbosa, Lu{\´i}s and Coelho, Victor Hugo R. and Scheiffele, Lena and Baroni, Gabriele and Ramos Filho, Geraldo M. and Montenegro, Suzana M. G. L. and Das Neves Almeida, Cristiano and Oswald, Sascha},
  title     = {Dynamic groundwater recharge simulations based on cosmic-ray neutron sensing in a tropical wet experimental basin},
  series = {Vadose zone journal : VZJ : advancing critical zone science},
  volume    = {20},
  journal   = {Vadose zone journal : VZJ : advancing critical zone science},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {1539-1663},
  doi       = {10.1002/vzj2.20145},
  pages     = {22},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Although cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is probably the most promising noninvasive proximal soil moisture measurement technique at the field scale, its application for hydrological simulations remains underexplored in the literature so far. This study assessed the use of CRNS to inversely calibrate soil hydraulic parameters at the intermediate field scale to simulate the groundwater recharge rates at a daily timescale. The study was conducted for two contrasting hydrological years at the Guaraira experimental basin, Brazil, a 5.84-km(2), a tropical wet and rather flat landscape covered by secondary Atlantic forest. As a consequence of the low altitude and proximity to the equator low neutron count rates could be expected, reducing the precision of CRNS while constituting unexplored and challenging conditions for CRNS applications. Inverse calibration for groundwater recharge rates was used based on CRNS or point-scale soil moisture data. The CRNS-derived retention curve and saturated hydraulic conductivity were consistent with the literature and locally performed slug tests. Simulated groundwater recharge rates ranged from 60 to 470 mm yr(-1), corresponding to 5 and 29\% of rainfall, and correlated well with estimates based on water table fluctuations. In contrast, the estimated results based on inversive point-scale datasets were not in alignment with measured water table fluctuations. The better performance of CRNS-based estimations of field-scale hydrological variables, especially groundwater recharge, demonstrated its clear advantages over traditional invasive point-scale techniques. Finally, the study proved the ability of CRNS as practicable in low altitude, tropical wet areas, thus encouraging its adoption for water resources monitoring and management.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HeydenNatho2022,
  author    = {Heyden, Janika and Natho, Stephanie},
  title     = {Assessing floodplain management in Germany - a case study on nationwide research and actions},
  series = {Sustainability},
  volume    = {14},
  journal   = {Sustainability},
  number    = {17},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {2071-1050},
  doi       = {10.3390/su141710610},
  pages     = {18},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {After a long history of floodplain degradation and substantial losses of inundation areas over the last decades, a rethinking of floodplain management has taken place in Germany. Floodplains are now acknowledged as important areas for both biodiversity and society. This transformation has been significantly supported by nationwide research activities. A systematic assessment of the current floodplain management is still lacking. We therefore developed a scheme to assess floodplain management through the steps of identification, analysis, implementation, and evaluation. Reviewing the data and literature on nationwide floodplain-related research and activities, we defined key elements of floodplain management for Germany. We concluded that research activities already follow a strategic nationwide approach of identifying and analyzing floodplains. Progress in implementation is slow, however, and potentials are far from being reached. Nevertheless, new and unique initiatives enable Germany to stay on the long-term path of giving rivers more space and improving floodplain conditions.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RoezerKreibichSchroeteretal.2019,
  author    = {R{\"o}zer, Viktor and Kreibich, Heidi and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and M{\"u}ller, Meike and Sairam, Nivedita and Doss-Gollin, James and Lall, Upmanu and Merz, Bruno},
  title     = {Probabilistic Models Significantly Reduce Uncertainty in Hurricane Harvey Pluvial Flood Loss Estimates},
  series = {Earths future},
  volume    = {7},
  journal   = {Earths future},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {2328-4277},
  doi       = {10.1029/2018EF001074},
  pages     = {384 -- 394},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Pluvial flood risk is mostly excluded in urban flood risk assessment. However, the risk of pluvial flooding is a growing challenge with a projected increase of extreme rainstorms compounding with an ongoing global urbanization. Considered as a flood type with minimal impacts when rainfall rates exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, the aftermath of rainfall-triggered flooding during Hurricane Harvey and other events show the urgent need to assess the risk of pluvial flooding. Due to the local extent and small-scale variations, the quantification of pluvial flood risk requires risk assessments on high spatial resolutions. While flood hazard and exposure information is becoming increasingly accurate, the estimation of losses is still a poorly understood component of pluvial flood risk quantification. We use a new probabilistic multivariable modeling approach to estimate pluvial flood losses of individual buildings, explicitly accounting for the associated uncertainties. Except for the water depth as the common most important predictor, we identified the drivers for having loss or not and for the degree of loss to be different. Applying this approach to estimate and validate building structure losses during Hurricane Harvey using a property level data set, we find that the reliability and dispersion of predictive loss distributions vary widely depending on the model and aggregation level of property level loss estimates. Our results show that the use of multivariable zero-inflated beta models reduce the 90\% prediction intervalsfor Hurricane Harvey building structure loss estimates on average by 78\% (totalling U.S.\$3.8 billion) compared to commonly used models.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SteirouGerlitzApeletal.2019,
  author    = {Steirou, Eva and Gerlitz, Lars and Apel, Heiko and Sun, Xun and Merz, Bruno},
  title     = {Climate influences on flood probabilities across Europe},
  series = {Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS},
  volume    = {23},
  journal   = {Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1027-5606},
  doi       = {10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019},
  pages     = {1305 -- 1322},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {The link between streamflow extremes and climatology has been widely studied in recent decades. However, a study investigating the effect of large-scale circulation variations on the distribution of seasonal discharge extremes at the European level is missing. Here we fit a climate-informed generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to about 600 streamflow records in Europe for each of the standard seasons, i.e., to winter, spring, summer and autumn maxima, and compare it with the classical GEV distribution with parameters invariant in time. The study adopts a Bayesian framework and covers the period 1950 to 2016. Five indices with proven influence on the European climate are examined independently as covariates, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic pattern (EA), the east Atlantic-western Russian pattern (EA/WR), the Scandinavia pattern (SCA) and the polar-Eurasian pattern (POL). It is found that for a high percentage of stations the climate-informed model is preferred to the classical model. Particularly for NAO during winter, a strong influence on streamflow extremes is detected for large parts of Europe (preferred to the classical GEV distribution for 46\% of the stations). Climate-informed fits are characterized by spatial coherence and form patterns that resemble relations between the climate indices and seasonal precipitation, suggesting a prominent role of the considered circulation modes for flood generation. For certain regions, such as northwestern Scandinavia and the British Isles, yearly variations of the mean seasonal climate indices result in considerably different extreme value distributions and thus in highly different flood estimates for individual years that can also persist for longer time periods.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SairamSchroeterLuedtkeetal.2019,
  author    = {Sairam, Nivedita and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and L{\"u}dtke, Stefan and Merz, Bruno and Kreibich, Heidi},
  title     = {Quantifying Flood Vulnerability Reduction via Private Precaution},
  series = {Earth future},
  volume    = {7},
  journal   = {Earth future},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {2328-4277},
  doi       = {10.1029/2018EF000994},
  pages     = {235 -- 249},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Private precaution is an important component in contemporary flood risk management and climate adaptation. However, quantitative knowledge about vulnerability reduction via private precautionary measures is scarce and their effects are hardly considered in loss modeling and risk assessments. However, this is a prerequisite to enable temporally dynamic flood damage and risk modeling, and thus the evaluation of risk management and adaptation strategies. To quantify the average reduction in vulnerability of residential buildings via private precaution empirical vulnerability data (n = 948) is used. Households with and without precautionary measures undertaken before the flood event are classified into treatment and nontreatment groups and matched. Postmatching regression is used to quantify the treatment effect. Additionally, we test state-of-the-art flood loss models regarding their capability to capture this difference in vulnerability. The estimated average treatment effect of implementing private precaution is between 11 and 15 thousand EUR per household, confirming the significant effectiveness of private precautionary measures in reducing flood vulnerability. From all tested flood loss models, the expert Bayesian network-based model BN-FLEMOps and the rule-based loss model FLEMOps perform best in capturing the difference in vulnerability due to private precaution. Thus, the use of such loss models is suggested for flood risk assessments to effectively support evaluations and decision making for adaptable flood risk management.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SpeckhannKreibichMerz2021,
  author    = {Speckhann, Gustavo Andrei and Kreibich, Heidi and Merz, Bruno},
  title     = {Inventory of dams in Germany},
  series = {Earth system science data : the data publishing journal},
  volume    = {13},
  journal   = {Earth system science data : the data publishing journal},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1866-3508},
  doi       = {10.5194/essd-13-731-2021},
  pages     = {731 -- 740},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Dams are an important element of water resources management. Data about dams are crucial for practitioners, scientists, and policymakers for various purposes, such as seasonal forecasting of water availability or flood mitigation. However, detailed information on dams on the national level for Germany is so far not freely available. We present the most comprehensive open-access dam inventory for Germany (DIG) to date. We have collected and combined information on dams using books, state agency reports, engineering reports, and internet pages. We have applied a priority rule that ensures the highest level of reliability for the dam information. Our dam inventory comprises 530 dams in Germany with information on name, location, river, start year of construction and operation, crest length, dam height, lake area, lake volume, purpose, dam structure, and building characteristics. We have used a global, satellite-based water surface raster to evaluate the location of the dams. A significant proportion (63 \%) of dams were built between 1950-2013. Our inventory shows that dams in Germany are mostly single-purpose (52 \%), 53\% can be used for flood control, and 25\% are involved in energy production. The inventory is freely available through GFZ (GeoForschungsZentrum) Data Services (https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2020.005)},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BuergerHeistermann2023,
  author    = {B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Heistermann, Maik},
  title     = {Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres},
  series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences : NHESS},
  volume    = {23},
  journal   = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences : NHESS},
  number    = {9},
  publisher = {European Geophysical Society},
  address   = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
  issn      = {1561-8633},
  doi       = {10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023},
  pages     = {3065 -- 3077},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify daily ERA5 fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using an array of 13 statistical methods, consisting of 4 conventional ("shallow") and 9 more recent deep machine learning (DL) algorithms; the classifiers are then applied to corresponding fields of simulated present and future atmospheres from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. The inherent uncertainty of the DL results from the stochastic nature of their optimization is addressed by employing an ensemble approach using 20 runs for each network. The shallow random forest method performs best with an equitable threat score (ETS) around 0.52, followed by the DL networks ALL-CNN and ResNet with an ETS near 0.48. Their success can be understood as a result of conceptual simplicity and parametric parsimony, which obviously best fits the relatively simple classification task. It is found that, on summer days, CatRaRE convective atmospheres over Germany occur with a probability of about 0.5. This probability is projected to increase, regardless of method, both in ERA5-reanalyzed and CORDEX-simulated atmospheres: for the historical period we find a centennial increase of about 0.2 and for the future period one of slightly below 0.1.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MetinNguyenVietDungSchroeteretal.2018,
  author    = {Metin, Ayse Duha and Nguyen Viet Dung, and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Guse, Bj{\"o}rn and Apel, Heiko and Kreibich, Heidi and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Merz, Bruno},
  title     = {How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?},
  series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  volume    = {18},
  journal   = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  number    = {11},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1561-8633},
  doi       = {10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018},
  pages     = {3089 -- 3108},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MetinDungSchroeteretal.2020,
  author    = {Metin, Ayse Duha and Dung, Nguyen Viet and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Guse, Bj{\"o}rn and Kreibich, Heidi and Merz, Bruno},
  title     = {The role of spatial dependence for large-scale flood risk estimation},
  series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  volume    = {20},
  journal   = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {European Geosciences Union (EGU) ; Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1561-8633},
  doi       = {10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020},
  pages     = {967 -- 979},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Flood risk assessments are typically based on scenarios which assume homogeneous return periods of flood peaks throughout the catchment. This assumption is unrealistic for real flood events and may bias risk estimates for specific return periods. We investigate how three assumptions about the spatial dependence affect risk estimates: (i) spatially homogeneous scenarios (complete dependence), (ii) spatially heterogeneous scenarios (modelled dependence) and (iii) spatially heterogeneous but uncorrelated scenarios (complete independence). To this end, the model chain RFM (regional flood model) is applied to the Elbe catchment in Germany, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of all flood generation processes, from the rainfall through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms. Different assumptions about the spatial dependence do not influence the expected annual damage (EAD); however, they bias the risk curve, i.e. the cumulative distribution function of damage. The widespread assumption of complete dependence strongly overestimates flood damage of the order of 100\% for return periods larger than approximately 200 years. On the other hand, for small and medium floods with return periods smaller than approximately 50 years, damage is underestimated. The overestimation aggravates when risk is estimated for larger areas. This study demonstrates the importance of representing the spatial dependence of flood peaks and damage for risk assessments.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HeistermannFranckeScheiffeleetal.2023,
  author    = {Heistermann, Maik and Francke, Till and Scheiffele, Lena and Petrova, Katya Dimitrova and Budach, Christian and Schr{\"o}n, Martin and Trost, Benjamin and Rasche, Daniel and G{\"u}ntner, Andreas and Doepper, Veronika and F{\"o}rster, Michael and K{\"o}hli, Markus and Angermann, Lisa and Antonoglou, Nikolaos and Zude, Manuela and Oswald, Sascha},
  title     = {Three years of soil moisture observations by a dense cosmic-ray neutron sensing cluster at an agricultural research site in north-east Germany},
  series = {Earth system science data : ESSD},
  volume    = {15},
  journal   = {Earth system science data : ESSD},
  number    = {7},
  publisher = {Copernics Publications},
  address   = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
  issn      = {1866-3508},
  doi       = {10.5194/essd-15-3243-2023},
  pages     = {3243 -- 3262},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) allows for the estimation of root-zone soil water content (SWC) at the scale of several hectares. In this paper, we present the data recorded by a dense CRNS network operated from 2019 to 2022 at an agricultural research site in Marquardt, Germany - the first multi-year CRNS cluster. Consisting, at its core, of eight permanently installed CRNS sensors, the cluster was supplemented by a wealth of complementary measurements: data from seven additional temporary CRNS sensors, partly co-located with the permanent ones; 27 SWC profiles (mostly permanent); two groundwater observation wells; meteorological records; and Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry (GNSS-R). Complementary to these continuous measurements, numerous campaign-based activities provided data by mobile CRNS roving, hyperspectral im-agery via UASs, intensive manual sampling of soil properties (SWC, bulk density, organic matter, texture, soil hydraulic properties), and observations of biomass and snow (cover, depth, and density). The unique temporal coverage of 3 years entails a broad spectrum of hydro-meteorological conditions, including exceptional drought periods and extreme rainfall but also episodes of snow coverage, as well as a dedicated irrigation experiment. Apart from serving to advance CRNS-related retrieval methods, this data set is expected to be useful for vari-ous disciplines, for example, soil and groundwater hydrology, agriculture, or remote sensing. Hence, we show exemplary features of the data set in order to highlight the potential for such subsequent studies. The data are available at doi.org/10.23728/b2share.551095325d74431881185fba1eb09c95 (Heistermann et al., 2022b).},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BillingThonickeSakschewskietal.2022,
  author    = {Billing, Maik and Thonicke, Kirsten and Sakschewski, Boris and von Bloh, Werner and Walz, Ariane},
  title     = {Future tree survival in European forests depends on understorey tree diversity},
  series = {Scientific reports},
  volume    = {12},
  journal   = {Scientific reports},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Springer Nature},
  address   = {Berlin},
  issn      = {2045-2322},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41598-022-25319-7},
  pages     = {12},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Climate change heavily threatens forest ecosystems worldwide and there is urgent need to understand what controls tree survival and forests stability. There is evidence that biodiversity can enhance ecosystem stability (Loreau and de Mazancourt in Ecol Lett 16:106-115, 2013; McCann in Nature 405:228-233, 2000), however it remains largely unclear whether this also holds for climate change and what aspects of biodiversity might be most important. Here we apply machine learning to outputs of a flexible-trait Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to unravel the effects of enhanced functional tree trait diversity and its sub-components on climate-change resistance of temperate forests (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/similar to billing/video/Forest_Resistance_LPJmLFIT.mp4). We find that functional tree trait diversity enhances forest resistance. We explain this with 1. stronger complementarity effects (similar to 25\% importance) especially improving the survival of trees in the understorey of up to +16.8\% (+/- 1.6\%) and 2. environmental and competitive filtering of trees better adapted to future climate (40-87\% importance). We conclude that forests containing functionally diverse trees better resist and adapt to future conditions. In this context, we especially highlight the role of functionally diverse understorey trees as they provide the fundament for better survival of young trees and filtering of resistant tree individuals in the future.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ApelVorogushynMerz2022,
  author    = {Apel, Heiko and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Merz, Bruno},
  title     = {Brief communication: impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in Germany},
  series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  volume    = {22},
  journal   = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  number    = {9},
  publisher = {European Geophysical Society},
  address   = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
  issn      = {1561-8633},
  doi       = {10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022},
  pages     = {3005 -- 3014},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Floods affect more people than any other natural hazard; thus flood warning and disaster management are of utmost importance. However, the operational hydrological forecasts do not provide information about affected areas and impact but only discharge and water levels at gauges. We show that a simple hydrodynamic model operating with readily available data is able to provide highly localized information on the expected flood extent and impacts, with simulation times enabling operational flood warning. We demonstrate that such an impact forecast would have indicated the deadly potential of the 2021 flood in western Germany with sufficient lead time.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CodecoWeisAndersen2022,
  author    = {Code{\c{c}}o, Marta S. and Weis, Philipp and Andersen, Christine},
  title     = {Numerical modeling of structurally controlled ore formation in magmatic-hydrothermal systems},
  series = {Geochemistry, geophysics, geosystems : G 3 ; an electronic journal of the earth sciences},
  volume    = {23},
  journal   = {Geochemistry, geophysics, geosystems : G 3 ; an electronic journal of the earth sciences},
  number    = {8},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington, DC},
  issn      = {1525-2027},
  doi       = {10.1029/2021GC010302},
  pages     = {20},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Faults and fractures can be permeable pathways for focused fluid flow in structurally controlled ore-forming hydrothermal systems. However, quantifying their role in fluid flow on the scale of several kilometers with numerical models typically requires high-resolution meshes. This study introduces a modified numerical representation of m-scale fault zones using lower-dimensional elements (here, one-dimensional [1D] elements in a 2D domain) to resolve structurally controlled fluid flow with coarser mesh resolutions and apply the method to magmatic-hydrothermal ore-forming systems. We modeled horizontal and vertical structure-controlled magmatic-hydrothermal deposits to understand the role of permeability and structure connectivity on ore deposition. The simulation results of vertically extended porphyry copper systems show that ore deposition can occur along permeable vertical structures where ascending, overpressured magmatic fluids are cooled by downflowing ambient fluids. Structure permeability and fault location control the distribution of ore grades. In highly permeable structures, the mineralization can span up to 3 km vertically, resulting in heat-pipe mechanisms that promote the ascent of a magmatic vapor phase to an overlying structurally controlled epithermal system. Simulations for the formation of subhorizontal vein-type deposits suggest that the major control on fluid flow and metal deposition along horizontal structures is the absence of vertical structures above the injection location but their presence at greater distances. Using a dynamic permeability model mimicking crack-seal mechanisms within the structures leads to a pulsating behavior of fracture-controlled hydrothermal systems and prevents the inflow of ambient fluids under overpressured conditions.},
  language  = {en}
}