@article{SchleussnerRungeLehmannetal.2014, author = {Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Runge, Jakob and Lehmann, Jasvcha and Levermann, Anders}, title = {The role of the North Atlantic overturning and deep ocean for multi-decadal global-mean-temperature variability}, series = {Earth system dynamics}, volume = {5}, journal = {Earth system dynamics}, number = {1}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {2190-4979}, doi = {10.5194/esd-5-103-2014}, pages = {103 -- 115}, year = {2014}, language = {en} } @article{MartinWinkelmannHaseloffetal.2011, author = {Martin, Maria A. and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Haseloff, M. and Albrecht, Tanja and Bueler, Ed and Khroulev, C. and Levermann, Anders}, title = {The Potsdam parallel ice sheet model (PISM-PIK) - Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {5}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {3}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-5-727-2011}, pages = {727 -- 740}, year = {2011}, abstract = {We present a dynamic equilibrium simulation of the ice sheet-shelf system on Antarctica with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK). The simulation is initialized with present-day conditions for bed topography and ice thickness and then run to steady state with constant present-day surface mass balance. Surface temperature and sub-shelf basal melt distribution are parameterized. Grounding lines and calving fronts are free to evolve, and their modeled equilibrium state is compared to observational data. A physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates allows for realistic calving fronts for various types of shelves. Steady-state dynamics including surface velocity and ice flux are analyzed for whole Antarctica and the Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelf areas in particular. The results show that the different flow regimes in sheet and shelves, and the transition zone between them, are captured reasonably well, supporting the approach of superposition of SIA and SSA for the representation of fast motion of grounded ice. This approach also leads to a natural emergence of sliding-dominated flow in stream-like features in this new 3-D marine ice sheet model.}, language = {en} } @article{WinkelmannMartinHaseloffetal.2011, author = {Winkelmann, Ricarda and Martin, Maria A. and Haseloff, Monika and Albrecht, Torsten and Bueler, Ed and Khroulev, C. and Levermann, Anders}, title = {The Potsdam parallel ice sheet model (PISM-PIK) - Part 1: Model description}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {5}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {3}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-5-715-2011}, pages = {715 -- 726}, year = {2011}, abstract = {We present the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research to be used for simulations of large-scale ice sheet-shelf systems. It is derived from the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (Bueler and Brown, 2009). Velocities are calculated by superposition of two shallow stress balance approximations within the entire ice covered region: the shallow ice approximation (SIA) is dominant in grounded regions and accounts for shear deformation parallel to the geoid. The plug-flow type shallow shelf approximation (SSA) dominates the velocity field in ice shelf regions and serves as a basal sliding velocity in grounded regions. Ice streams can be identified diagnostically as regions with a significant contribution of membrane stresses to the local momentum balance. All lateral boundaries in PISM-PIK are free to evolve, including the grounding line and ice fronts. Ice shelf margins in particular are modeled using Neumann boundary conditions for the SSA equations, reflecting a hydrostatic stress imbalance along the vertical calving face. The ice front position is modeled using a subgrid-scale representation of calving front motion (Albrecht et al., 2011) and a physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates. The model is tested in experiments from the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP). A dynamic equilibrium simulation of Antarctica under present-day conditions is presented in Martin et al. (2011).}, language = {en} } @article{UeckerdtFrielerLangeetal.2019, author = {Ueckerdt, Falko and Frieler, Katja and Lange, Stefan and Wenz, Leonie and Luderer, Gunnar and Levermann, Anders}, title = {The economically optimal warming limit of the planet}, series = {Earth system dynamics}, volume = {10}, journal = {Earth system dynamics}, number = {4}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {2190-4979}, doi = {10.5194/esd-10-741-2019}, pages = {741 -- 763}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Both climate-change damages and climate-change mitigation will incur economic costs. While the risk of severe damages increases with the level of global warming (Dell et al., 2014; IPCC, 2014b, 2018; Lenton et al., 2008), mitigating costs increase steeply with more stringent warming limits (IPCC, 2014a; Luderer et al., 2013; Rogelj et al., 2015). Here, we show that the global warming limit that minimizes this century's total economic costs of climate change lies between 1.9 and 2 ∘C, if temperature changes continue to impact national economic growth rates as observed in the past and if instantaneous growth effects are neither compensated nor amplified by additional growth effects in the following years. The result is robust across a wide range of normative assumptions on the valuation of future welfare and inequality aversion. We combine estimates of climate-change impacts on economic growth for 186 countries (applying an empirical damage function from Burke et al., 2015) with mitigation costs derived from a state-of-the-art energy-economy-climate model with a wide range of highly resolved mitigation options (Kriegler et al., 2017; Luderer et al., 2013, 2015). Our purely economic assessment, even though it omits non-market damages, provides support for the international Paris Agreement on climate change. The political goal of limiting global warming to "well below 2 degrees" is thus also an economically optimal goal given above assumptions on adaptation and damage persistence.}, language = {en} } @misc{FeldmannLevermann2016, author = {Feldmann, Johannes and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Similitude of ice dynamics against scaling of geometry and physical parameters}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {564}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41244}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412441}, pages = {1753 -- 1769}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The concept of similitude is commonly employed in the fields of fluid dynamics and engineering but rarely used in cryospheric research. Here we apply this method to the problem of ice flow to examine the dynamic similitude of isothermal ice sheets in shallow-shelf approximation against the scaling of their geometry and physical parameters. Carrying out a dimensional analysis of the stress balance we obtain dimensionless numbers that characterize the flow. Requiring that these numbers remain the same under scaling we obtain conditions that relate the geometric scaling factors, the parameters for the ice softness, surface mass balance and basal friction as well as the ice-sheet intrinsic response time to each other. We demonstrate that these scaling laws are the same for both the (two-dimensional) flow-line case and the three-dimensional case. The theoretically predicted ice-sheet scaling behavior agrees with results from numerical simulations that we conduct in flow-line and three-dimensional conceptual setups. We further investigate analytically the implications of geometric scaling of ice sheets for their response time. With this study we provide a framework which, under several assumptions, allows for a fundamental comparison of the ice-dynamic behavior across different scales. It proves to be useful in the design of conceptual numerical model setups and could also be helpful for designing laboratory glacier experiments. The concept might also be applied to real-world systems, e.g., to examine the response times of glaciers, ice streams or ice sheets to climatic perturbations.}, language = {en} } @article{LevermannWinkelmannNowickietal.2014, author = {Levermann, Anders and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Nowicki, S. and Fastook, J. L. and Frieler, Katja and Greve, R. and Hellmer, H. H. and Martin, M. A. and Meinshausen, Malte and Mengel, Matthias and Payne, A. J. and Pollard, D. and Sato, T. and Timmermann, R. and Wang, Wei Li and Bindschadler, Robert A.}, title = {Projecting antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models}, series = {Earth system dynamics}, volume = {5}, journal = {Earth system dynamics}, number = {2}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {2190-4979}, doi = {10.5194/esd-5-271-2014}, pages = {271 -- 293}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. Basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we attempt to estimate the uncertainty range of future ice discharge from Antarctica by combining uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response. The uncertainty in the global mean temperature increase is obtained from historically constrained emulations with the MAGICC-6.0 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model. The oceanic forcing is derived from scaling of the subsurface with the atmospheric warming from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. The dynamic ice-sheet response is derived from linear response functions for basal ice-shelf melting for four different Antarctic drainage regions using experiments from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. The resulting uncertainty range for the historic Antarctic contribution to global sea-level rise from 1992 to 2011 agrees with the observed contribution for this period if we use the three ice-sheet models with an explicit representation of ice-shelf dynamics and account for the time-delayed warming of the oceanic subsurface compared to the surface air temperature. The median of the additional ice loss for the 21st century is computed to 0.07 m (66\% range: 0.02-0.14 m; 90\% range: 0.0-0.23 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario and 0.09 m (66\% range: 0.04-0.21 m; 90\% range: 0.01-0.37 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5. Assuming no time delay between the atmospheric warming and the oceanic subsurface, these values increase to 0.09 m (66\% range: 0.04-0.17 m; 90\% range: 0.02-0.25 m) for RCP-2.6 and 0.15 m (66\% range: 0.07-0.28 m; 90\% range: 0.04-0.43 m) for RCP-8.5. All probability distributions are highly skewed towards high values. The applied ice-sheet models are coarse resolution with limitations in the representation of grounding-line motion. Within the constraints of the applied methods, the uncertainty induced from different ice-sheet models is smaller than that induced by the external forcing to the ice sheets.}, language = {en} } @article{AlbrechtMartinHaseloffetal.2011, author = {Albrecht, Tanja and Martin, M. and Haseloff, M. and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Parameterization for subgrid-scale motion of ice-shelf calving fronts}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {5}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {1}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-5-35-2011}, pages = {35 -- 44}, year = {2011}, abstract = {A parameterization for the motion of ice-shelf fronts on a Cartesian grid in finite-difference land-ice models is presented. The scheme prevents artificial thinning of the ice shelf at its edge, which occurs due to the finite resolution of the model. The intuitive numerical implementation diminishes numerical dispersion at the ice front and enables the application of physical boundary conditions to improve the calculation of stress and velocity fields throughout the ice-sheet-shelf system. Numerical properties of this subgrid modification are assessed in the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) for different geometries in one and two horizontal dimensions and are verified against an analytical solution in a flow-line setup.}, language = {en} } @misc{ScheweLevermann2017, author = {Schewe, Jacob and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {630}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41911}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419114}, pages = {495 -- 505}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300\% over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic-thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.}, language = {en} } @article{EhlertLevermann2014, author = {Ehlert, D. and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Mechanism for potential strengthening of Atlantic overturning prior to collapse}, series = {Earth system dynamics}, volume = {5}, journal = {Earth system dynamics}, number = {2}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {2190-4979}, doi = {10.5194/esd-5-383-2014}, pages = {383 -- 397}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) carries large amounts of heat into the North Atlantic influencing climate regionally as well as globally. Palaeo-records and simulations with comprehensive climate models suggest that the positive salt-advection feedback may yield a threshold behaviour of the system. That is to say that beyond a certain amount of freshwater flux into the North Atlantic, no meridional overturning circulation can be sustained. Concepts of monitoring the AMOC and identifying its vicinity to the threshold rely on the fact that the volume flux defining the AMOC will be reduced when approaching the threshold. Here we advance conceptual models that have been used in a paradigmatic way to understand the AMOC, by introducing a density-dependent parameterization for the Southern Ocean eddies. This additional degree of freedom uncovers a mechanism by which the AMOC can increase with additional freshwater flux into the North Atlantic, before it reaches the threshold and collapses: an AMOC that is mainly wind-driven will have a constant upwelling as long as the Southern Ocean winds do not change significantly. The downward transport of tracers occurs either in the northern sinking regions or through Southern Ocean eddies. If freshwater is transported, either atmospherically or via horizontal gyres, from the low to high latitudes, this would reduce the eddy transport and by continuity increase the northern sinking which defines the AMOC until a threshold is reached at which the AMOC cannot be sustained. If dominant in the real ocean this mechanism would have significant consequences for monitoring the AMOC.}, language = {en} } @article{MarzeionLevermann2014, author = {Marzeion, Ben and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Loss of cultural world heritage and currently inhabited places to sea-level rise}, series = {Environmental research letters}, volume = {9}, journal = {Environmental research letters}, number = {3}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034001}, pages = {7}, year = {2014}, language = {en} }