@article{StoneNicenboimVasishthetal.2023,
  author    = {Stone, Kate and Nicenboim, Bruno and Vasishth, Shravan and R{\"o}sler, Frank},
  title     = {Understanding the effects of constraint and predictability in ERP},
  series = {Neurobiology of language},
  volume    = {4},
  journal   = {Neurobiology of language},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {MIT Press},
  address   = {Cambridge, MA, USA},
  issn      = {2641-4368},
  doi       = {10.1162/nol_a_00094},
  pages     = {221 -- 256},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Intuitively, strongly constraining contexts should lead to stronger probabilistic representations of sentences in memory. Encountering unexpected words could therefore be expected to trigger costlier shifts in these representations than expected words. However, psycholinguistic measures commonly used to study probabilistic processing, such as the N400 event-related potential (ERP) component, are sensitive to word predictability but not to contextual constraint. Some research suggests that constraint-related processing cost may be measurable via an ERP positivity following the N400, known as the anterior post-N400 positivity (PNP). The PNP is argued to reflect update of a sentence representation and to be distinct from the posterior P600, which reflects conflict detection and reanalysis. However, constraint-related PNP findings are inconsistent. We sought to conceptually replicate Federmeier et al. (2007) and Kuperberg et al. (2020), who observed that the PNP, but not the N400 or the P600, was affected by constraint at unexpected but plausible words. Using a pre-registered design and statistical approach maximising power, we demonstrated a dissociated effect of predictability and constraint: strong evidence for predictability but not constraint in the N400 window, and strong evidence for constraint but not predictability in the later window. However, the constraint effect was consistent with a P600 and not a PNP, suggesting increased conflict between a strong representation and unexpected input rather than greater update of the representation. We conclude that either a simple strong/weak constraint design is not always sufficient to elicit the PNP, or that previous PNP constraint findings could be an artifact of smaller sample size.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{StoneNicenboimVasishthetal.2022,
  author    = {Stone, Kate and Nicenboim, Bruno and Vasishth, Shravan and R{\"o}sler, Frank},
  title     = {Understanding the effects of constraint and predictability in ERP},
  series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {829},
  issn      = {1866-8364},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-58759},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-587594},
  pages     = {71},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Intuitively, strongly constraining contexts should lead to stronger probabilistic representations of sentences in memory. Encountering unexpected words could therefore be expected to trigger costlier shifts in these representations than expected words. However, psycholinguistic measures commonly used to study probabilistic processing, such as the N400 event-related potential (ERP) component, are sensitive to word predictability but not to contextual constraint. Some research suggests that constraint-related processing cost may be measurable via an ERP positivity following the N400, known as the anterior post-N400 positivity (PNP). The PNP is argued to reflect update of a sentence representation and to be distinct from the posterior P600, which reflects conflict detection and reanalysis. However, constraint-related PNP findings are inconsistent. We sought to conceptually replicate Federmeier et al. (2007) and Kuperberg et al. (2020), who observed that the PNP, but not the N400 or the P600, was affected by constraint at unexpected but plausible words. Using a pre-registered design and statistical approach maximising power, we demonstrated a dissociated effect of predictability and constraint: strong evidence for predictability but not constraint in the N400 window, and strong evidence for constraint but not predictability in the later window. However, the constraint effect was consistent with a P600 and not a PNP, suggesting increased conflict between a strong representation and unexpected input rather than greater update of the representation. We conclude that either a simple strong/weak constraint design is not always sufficient to elicit the PNP, or that previous PNP constraint findings could be an artifact of smaller sample size.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{ZeheBloeschl2004,
  author    = {Zehe, Erwin and Bl{\"o}schl, G{\"u}nter},
  title     = {Predictability of hydrologic response at the plot and catchment scales: Role of initial conditions},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-60119},
  year      = {2004},
  abstract  = {This paper examines the effect of uncertain initial soil moisture on hydrologic response at the plot scale (1 m2) and the catchment scale (3.6 km2) in the presence of threshold transitions between matrix and preferential flow. We adopt the concepts of microstates and macrostates from statistical mechanics. The microstates are the detailed patterns of initial soil moisture that are inherently unknown, while the macrostates are specified by the statistical distributions of initial soil moisture that can be derived from the measurements typically available in field experiments. We use a physically based model and ensure that it closely represents the processes in the Weiherbach catchment, Germany. We then use the model to generate hydrologic response to hypothetical irrigation events and rainfall events for multiple realizations of initial soil moisture microstates that are all consistent with the same macrostate. As the measures of uncertainty at the plot scale we use the coefficient of variation and the scaled range of simulated vertical bromide transport distances between realizations. At the catchment scale we use similar statistics derived from simulated flood peak discharges. The simulations indicate that at both scales the predictability depends on the average initial soil moisture state and is at a minimum around the soil moisture value where the transition from matrix to macropore flow occurs. The predictability increases with rainfall intensity. The predictability increases with scale with maximum absolute errors of 90 and 32\% at the plot scale and the catchment scale, respectively. It is argued that even if we assume perfect knowledge on the processes, the level of detail with which one can measure the initial conditions along with the nonlinearity of the system will set limits to the repeatability of experiments and limits to the predictability of models at the plot and catchment scales.},
  language  = {de}
}