@article{FeldmannReeseWinkelmannetal.2022, author = {Feldmann, Johannes and Reese, Ronja and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Shear-margin melting causes stronger transient ice discharge than ice-stream melting in idealized simulations}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {16}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {5}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-16-1927-2022}, pages = {1927 -- 1940}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Basal ice-shelf melting is the key driver of Antarctica's increasing sea-level contribution. In diminishing the buttressing force of the ice shelves that fringe the ice sheet, the melting increases the ice discharge into the ocean. Here we contrast the influence of basal melting in two different ice-shelf regions on the time-dependent response of an isothermal, inherently buttressed ice-sheet-shelf system. In the idealized numerical simulations, the basal-melt perturbations are applied close to the grounding line in the ice-shelf's (1) ice-stream region, where the ice shelf is fed by the fastest ice masses that stream through the upstream bed trough and (2) shear margins, where the ice flow is slower. The results show that melting below one or both of the shear margins can cause a decadal to centennial increase in ice discharge that is more than twice as large compared to a similar perturbation in the ice-stream region. We attribute this to the fact that melt-induced ice-shelf thinning in the central grounding-line region is attenuated very effectively by the fast flow of the central ice stream. In contrast, the much slower ice dynamics in the lateral shear margins of the ice shelf facilitate sustained ice-shelf thinning and thereby foster buttressing reduction. Regardless of the melt location, a higher melt concentration toward the grounding line generally goes along with a stronger response. Our results highlight the vulnerability of outlet glaciers to basal melting in stagnant, buttressing-relevant ice-shelf regions, a mechanism that may gain importance under future global warming.}, language = {en} } @article{WunderlingWilleitDongesetal.2020, author = {Wunderling, Nico and Willeit, Matteo and Donges, Jonathan and Winkelmann, Ricarda}, title = {Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice}, series = {Nature Communications}, volume = {11}, journal = {Nature Communications}, number = {1}, publisher = {Nature Publishing Group}, address = {Berlin}, issn = {2041-1723}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3}, pages = {14}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C (interquartile range: 0.39-0.46 degrees C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55\%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30\%) and cloud feedbacks (15\%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. The disintegration of cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctica is associated with temperature and radiative feedbacks. In this work, the authors quantify these feedbacks and find an additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C.}, language = {en} } @article{ZeitzReeseBeckmannetal.2021, author = {Zeitz, Maria and Reese, Ronja and Beckmann, Johanna and Krebs-Kanzow, Uta and Winkelmann, Ricarda}, title = {Impact of the melt-albedo feedback on the future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet with PISM-dEBM-simple}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {15}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {12}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {Katlenburg-Lindau}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-15-5739-2021}, pages = {5739 -- 5764}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Surface melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes a large amount to current and future sea level rise. Increased surface melt may lower the reflectivity of the ice sheet surface and thereby increase melt rates: the so-called melt-albedo feedback describes this self-sustaining increase in surface melting. In order to test the effect of the melt-albedo feedback in a prognostic ice sheet model, we implement dEBM-simple, a simplified version of the diurnal Energy Balance Model dEBM, in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The implementation includes a simple representation of the melt-albedo feedback and can thereby replace the positive-degree-day melt scheme. Using PISM-dEBM-simple, we find that this feedback increases ice loss through surface warming by 60 \% until 2300 for the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 when compared to a scenario in which the albedo remains constant at its present-day values. With an increase of 90 \% compared to a fixed-albedo scenario, the effect is more pronounced for lower surface warming under RCP2.6. Furthermore, assuming an immediate darkening of the ice surface over all summer months, we estimate an upper bound for this effect to be 70 \% in the RCP8.5 scenario and a more than 4-fold increase under RCP2.6. With dEBM-simple implemented in PISM, we find that the melt-albedo feedback is an essential contributor to mass loss in dynamic simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet under future warming.}, language = {en} } @article{KloseWunderlingWinkelmannetal.2021, author = {Klose, Ann Kristin and Wunderling, Nico and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Donges, Jonathan}, title = {What do we mean, 'tipping cascade'?}, series = {Environmental research letters : ERL}, volume = {16}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL}, number = {12}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955}, pages = {11}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth's climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied. The activation of such tipping cascades would impose a considerable risk for human societies and biosphere integrity. However, there are ambiguities in the description of tipping cascades within the literature so far. Here we illustrate how different patterns of multiple tipping dynamics emerge from a very simple coupling of two previously studied idealized tipping elements. In particular, we distinguish between a two phase cascade, a domino cascade and a joint cascade. A mitigation of an unfolding two phase cascade may be possible and common early warning indicators are sensitive to upcoming critical transitions to a certain degree. In contrast, a domino cascade may hardly be stopped once initiated and critical slowing down-based indicators fail to indicate tipping of the following element. These different potentials for intervention and anticipation across the distinct patterns of multiple tipping dynamics should be seen as a call to be more precise in future analyses of cascading dynamics arising from tipping element interactions in the Earth system.}, language = {en} } @article{DurandvandenBroekeLeCozannetetal.2022, author = {Durand, Gael and van den Broeke, Michiel R. and Le Cozannet, Goneri and Edwards, Tamsin L. and Holland, Paul R. and Jourdain, Nicolas C. and Marzeion, Ben and Mottram, Ruth and Nicholls, Robert J. and Pattyn, Frank and Paul, Frank and Slangen, Aimee B. A. and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Burgard, Clara and van Calcar, Caroline J. and Barre, Jean-Baptiste and Bataille, Amelie and Chapuis, Anne}, title = {Sea-Level rise: from global perspectives to local services}, series = {Frontiers in Marine Science}, volume = {8}, journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science}, publisher = {Frontiers Media}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {2296-7745}, doi = {10.3389/fmars.2021.709595}, pages = {8}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Coastal areas are highly diverse, ecologically rich, regions of key socio-economic activity, and are particularly sensitive to sea-level change. Over most of the 20th century, global mean sea level has risen mainly due to warming and subsequent expansion of the upper ocean layers as well as the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Over the last three decades, increased mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has also started to contribute significantly to contemporary sea-level rise. The future mass loss of the two ice sheets, which combined represent a sea-level rise potential of similar to 65 m, constitutes the main source of uncertainty in long-term (centennial to millennial) sea-level rise projections. Improved knowledge of the magnitude and rate of future sea-level change is therefore of utmost importance. Moreover, sea level does not change uniformly across the globe and can differ greatly at both regional and local scales. The most appropriate and feasible sea level mitigation and adaptation measures in coastal regions strongly depend on local land use and associated risk aversion. Here, we advocate that addressing the problem of future sea-level rise and its impacts requires (i) bringing together a transdisciplinary scientific community, from climate and cryospheric scientists to coastal impact specialists, and (ii) interacting closely and iteratively with users and local stakeholders to co-design and co-build coastal climate services, including addressing the high-end risks.}, language = {en} } @article{KramerBouriaudFeindtetal.2022, author = {Kramer, Koen and Bouriaud, Laura and Feindt, Peter H. and van Wassenaer, Lan and Glanemann, Nicole and Hanewinkel, Marc and van der Heide, Martijn and Hengeveld, Geerten M. and Hoogstra, Marjanke and Ingram, Verina and Levermann, Anders and Lindner, Marcus and M{\´a}ty{\´a}s, Csaba and Mohren, Frits and Muys, Bart and Nabuurs, Gert-Jan and Palahi, Marc and Polman, Nico and Reyer, Christopher P. O. and Schulze, Ernst-Detlef and Seidl, Rupert and de Vries, Wim and Werners, Saskia E. and Winkel, Georg and Yousefpour, Rasoul}, title = {Perspective Roadmap to develop a stress test for forest ecosystem services supply}, series = {One Earth}, volume = {5}, journal = {One Earth}, number = {1}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {2590-3330}, doi = {10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.009}, pages = {25 -- 34}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Forests play a key role in a bio-based economy by providing renewable materials, mitigating climate change, and accommodating biodiversity. However, forests experience massive increases in stresses in their ecological and socioeconomic environments, threatening forest ecosystem services supply. Alleviating those stresses is hampered by conflicting and disconnected governance arrangements, competing interests and claims, and rapid changes in technology and social demands. Identifying which stresses threaten forest ecosystem services supply and which factors hamper their alleviation requires stakeholders' perceptions. Stakeholder-oriented stress tests for the supply of forest ecosystem services are therefore necessary but are not yet available. This perspective presents a roadmap to develop a stress test tailored to multiple stakeholders' needs and demands across spatial scales. We provide the Cascade and Resilience Rosetta, with accompanying performance- and resilience indicators, as tools to facilitate development of the stress test. The application of the stress test will facilitate the transition toward a bio-based economy in which healthy and diverse forests provide sustainable and resilient ecosystem services.}, language = {en} } @article{DamleSparreRichteretal.2022, author = {Damle, Mitali and Sparre, Martin and Richter, Philipp and Hani, Maan H. and Nuza, Sebastian and Pfrommer, Christoph and Grand, Robert J. J. and Hoffman, Yehuda and Libeskind, Noam and Sorce, Jenny and Steinmetz, Mathias and Tempel, Elmo and Vogelsberger, Mark and Wang, Peng}, title = {Cold and hot gas distribution around the Milky-Way - M31 system in the HESTIA simulations}, series = {Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}, volume = {512}, journal = {Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0035-8711}, doi = {10.1093/mnras/stac663}, pages = {3717 -- 3737}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Recent observations have revealed remarkable insights into the gas reservoir in the circumgalactic medium (CGM) of galaxy haloes. In this paper, we characterise the gas in the vicinity of Milky Way and Andromeda analogues in the hestia (High resolution Environmental Simulations of The Immediate Area) suite of constrained Local Group (LG) simulations. The hestia suite comprise of a set of three high-resolution arepo-based simulations of the LG, run using the Auriga galaxy formation model. For this paper, we focus only on the 𝑧 = 0 simulation datasets and generate mock skymaps along with a power spectrum analysis to show that the distributions of ions tracing low-temperature gas (H i and Si iii) are more clumpy in comparison to warmer gas tracers (O vi, O vii and O viii). We compare to the spectroscopic CGM observations of M31 and low-redshift galaxies. hestia under-produces the column densities of the M31 observations, but the simulations are consistent with the observations of low-redshift galaxies. A possible explanation for these findings is that the spectroscopic observations of M31 are contaminated by gas residing in the CGM of the Milky Way.}, language = {en} } @article{HuthPangTewsetal.2022, author = {Huth, Sabrina and Pang, Peter Tsun Ho and Tews, Ingo and Dietrich, Tim and Le F{\`e}vre, Arnaud and Schwenk, Achim and Trautmann, Wolfgang and Agarwal, Kshitij and Bulla, Mattia and Coughlin, Michael W. and Van den Broeck, Chris}, title = {Constraining neutron-star matter with microscopic and macroscopic collisions}, series = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, volume = {606}, journal = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, number = {7913}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London [u.a.]}, issn = {0028-0836}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-022-04750-w}, pages = {276 -- 295}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Interpreting high-energy, astrophysical phenomena, such as supernova explosions or neutron-star collisions, requires a robust understanding of matter at supranuclear densities. However, our knowledge about dense matter explored in the cores of neutron stars remains limited. Fortunately, dense matter is not probed only in astrophysical observations, but also in terrestrial heavy-ion collision experiments. Here we use Bayesian inference to combine data from astrophysical multi-messenger observations of neutron stars(1-9) and from heavy-ion collisions of gold nuclei at relativistic energies(10,11) with microscopic nuclear theory calculations(12-17) to improve our understanding of dense matter. We find that the inclusion of heavy-ion collision data indicates an increase in the pressure in dense matter relative to previous analyses, shifting neutron-star radii towards larger values, consistent with recent observations by the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer mission(5-8,18). Our findings show that constraints from heavy-ion collision experiments show a remarkable consistency with multi-messenger observations and provide complementary information on nuclear matter at intermediate densities. This work combines nuclear theory, nuclear experiment and astrophysical observations, and shows how joint analyses can shed light on the properties of neutron-rich supranuclear matter over the density range probed in neutron stars.}, language = {en} } @article{PangDietrichTewsetal.2020, author = {Pang, Peter Tsun Ho and Dietrich, Tim and Tews, Ingo and Van Den Broeck, Chris}, title = {Parameter estimation for strong phase transitions in supranuclear matter using gravitational-wave astronomy}, series = {Physical review research}, volume = {2}, journal = {Physical review research}, number = {3}, publisher = {American Physical Society}, address = {College Park}, issn = {2643-1564}, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevResearch.2.033514}, pages = {17}, year = {2020}, abstract = {At supranuclear densities, explored in the core of neutron stars, a strong phase transition from hadronic matter to more exotic forms of matter might be present. To test this hypothesis, binary neutron-star mergers offer a unique possibility to probe matter at densities that we cannot create in any existing terrestrial experiment. In this work, we show that, if present, strong phase transitions can have a measurable imprint on the binary neutron-star coalescence and the emitted gravitational-wave signal. We construct a new parametrization of the supranuclear equation of state that allows us to test for the existence of a strong phase transition and extract its characteristic properties purely from the gravitational-wave signal of the inspiraling neutron stars. We test our approach using a Bayesian inference study simulating 600 signals with three different equations of state and find that for current gravitational-wave detector networks already 12 events might be sufficient to verify the presence of a strong phase transition. Finally, we use our methodology to analyze GW170817 and GW190425 but do not find any indication that a strong phase transition is present at densities probed during the inspiral.}, language = {en} } @article{KunertPangTewsetal.2022, author = {Kunert, Nina and Pang, Peter T. H. and Tews, Ingo and Coughlin, Michael W. and Dietrich, Tim}, title = {Quantifying modeling uncertainties when combining multiple gravitational-wave detections from binary neutron star sources}, series = {Physical review D}, volume = {105}, journal = {Physical review D}, number = {6}, publisher = {American Physical Society}, address = {College Park}, issn = {2470-0010}, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevD.105.L061301}, pages = {7}, year = {2022}, abstract = {With the increasing sensitivity of gravitational-wave detectors, we expect to observe multiple binary neutron-star systems through gravitational waves in the near future. The combined analysis of these gravitational-wave signals offers the possibility to constrain the neutron-star radius and the equation of state of dense nuclear matter with unprecedented accuracy. However, it is crucial to ensure that uncertainties inherent in the gravitational-wave models will not lead to systematic biases when information from multiple detections is combined. To quantify waveform systematics, we perform an extensive simulation campaign of binary neutron-star sources and analyze them with a set of four different waveform models. For our analysis with 38 simulations, we find that statistical uncertainties in the neutron-star radius decrease to 1250 m (2\% at 90\% credible interval) but that systematic differences between currently employed waveform models can be twice as large. Hence, it will be essential to ensure that systematic biases will not become dominant in inferences of the neutron-star equation of state when capitalizing on future developments.}, language = {en} }