@misc{LewandowskyCowtanRisbeyetal.2019, author = {Lewandowsky, Stephan and Cowtan, Kevin and Risbey, James S. and Mann, Michael E. and Steinman, Byron A. and Oreskes, Naomi and Rahmstorf, Stefan}, title = {Erratum: The 'pause' in global warming in historical context: II. Comparing models to observations (Environmental research letters. - Vol 13, (2018) 123007)}, series = {Environmental research letters}, volume = {14}, journal = {Environmental research letters}, number = {4}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aafbb7}, pages = {2}, year = {2019}, abstract = {We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.}, language = {en} }