@phdthesis{Zoeller2005,
  author    = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert},
  title     = {Critical states of seismicity : modeling and data analysis},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-7427},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2005},
  abstract  = {The occurrence of earthquakes is characterized by a high degree of spatiotemporal complexity. Although numerous patterns, e.g. fore- and aftershock sequences, are well-known, the underlying mechanisms are not observable and thus not understood. Because the recurrence times of large earthquakes are usually decades or centuries, the number of such events in corresponding data sets is too small to draw conclusions with reasonable statistical significance. Therefore, the present study combines both, numerical modeling and analysis of real data in order to unveil the relationships between physical mechanisms and observational quantities. The key hypothesis is the validity of the so-called "critical point concept" for earthquakes, which assumes large earthquakes to occur as phase transitions in a spatially extended many-particle system, similar to percolation models. New concepts are developed to detect critical states in simulated and in natural data sets. The results indicate that important features of seismicity like the frequency-size distribution and the temporal clustering of earthquakes depend on frictional and structural fault parameters. In particular, the degree of quenched spatial disorder (the "roughness") of a fault zone determines whether large earthquakes occur quasiperiodically or more clustered. This illustrates the power of numerical models in order to identify regions in parameter space, which are relevant for natural seismicity. The critical point concept is verified for both, synthetic and natural seismicity, in terms of a critical state which precedes a large earthquake: a gradual roughening of the (unobservable) stress field leads to a scale-free (observable) frequency-size distribution. Furthermore, the growth of the spatial correlation length and the acceleration of the seismic energy release prior to large events is found. The predictive power of these precursors is, however, limited. Instead of forecasting time, location, and magnitude of individual events, a contribution to a broad multiparameter approach is encouraging.},
  subject      = {Seismizit{\"a}t},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Aseev2020,
  author    = {Aseev, Nikita A.},
  title     = {Modeling and understanding dynamics of charged particles in the Earth's inner magnetosphere},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-47921},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-479211},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xxii, 154},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {The Earth's inner magnetosphere is a very dynamic system, mostly driven by the external solar wind forcing exerted upon the magnetic field of our planet. Disturbances in the solar wind, such as coronal mass ejections and co-rotating interaction regions, cause geomagnetic storms, which lead to prominent changes in charged particle populations of the inner magnetosphere - the plasmasphere, ring current, and radiation belts. Satellites operating in the regions of elevated energetic and relativistic electron fluxes can be damaged by deep dielectric or surface charging during severe space weather events. Predicting the dynamics of the charged particles and mitigating their effects on the infrastructure is of particular importance, due to our increasing reliance on space technologies. The dynamics of particles in the plasmasphere, ring current, and radiation belts are strongly coupled by means of collisions and collisionless interactions with electromagnetic fields induced by the motion of charged particles. Multidimensional numerical models simplify the treatment of transport, acceleration, and loss processes of these particles, and allow us to predict how the near-Earth space environment responds to solar storms. The models inevitably rely on a number of simplifications and assumptions that affect model accuracy and complicate the interpretation of the results. In this dissertation, we quantify the processes that control electron dynamics in the inner magnetosphere, paying particular attention to the uncertainties of the employed numerical codes and tools. We use a set of convenient analytical solutions for advection and diffusion equations to test the accuracy and stability of the four-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB-4D) code. We show that numerical schemes implemented in the code converge to the analytical solutions and that the VERB-4D code demonstrates stable behavior independent of the assumed time step. The order of the numerical scheme for the convection equation is demonstrated to affect results of ring current and radiation belt simulations, and it is crucially important to use high-order numerical schemes to decrease numerical errors in the model. Using the thoroughly tested VERB-4D code, we model the dynamics of the ring current electrons during the 17 March 2013 storm. The discrepancies between the model and observations above 4.5 Earth's radii can be explained by uncertainties in the outer boundary conditions. Simulation results indicate that the electrons were transported from the geostationary orbit towards the Earth by the global-scale electric and magnetic fields. We investigate how simulation results depend on the input models and parameters. The model is shown to be particularly sensitive to the global electric field and electron lifetimes below 4.5 Earth's radii. The effects of radial diffusion and subauroral polarization streams are also quantified. We developed a data-assimilative code that blends together a convection model of energetic electron transport and loss and Van Allen Probes satellite data by means of the Kalman filter. We show that the Kalman filter can correct model uncertainties in the convection electric field, electron lifetimes, and boundary conditions. It is also demonstrated how the innovation vector - the difference between observations and model prediction - can be used to identify physical processes missing in the model of energetic electron dynamics. We computed radial profiles of phase space density of ultrarelativistic electrons, using Van Allen Probes measurements. We analyze the shape of the profiles during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed times and show that the formation of new local minimums in the radial profiles coincides with the ground observations of electromagnetic ion-cyclotron (EMIC) waves. This correlation indicates that EMIC waves are responsible for the loss of ultrarelativistic electrons from the heart of the outer radiation belt into the Earth's atmosphere.},
  language  = {en}
}