@phdthesis{Wunderling2021,
  author    = {Wunderling, Nico},
  title     = {Nichtlineare Dynamiken und Interaktionen von Kippelementen im Erdsystem},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-52514},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525140},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {ix, 303},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {With ongoing anthropogenic global warming, some of the most vulnerable components of the Earth system might become unstable and undergo a critical transition. These subsystems are the so-called tipping elements. They are believed to exhibit threshold behaviour and would, if triggered, result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. Furthermore, it has been shown that climate tipping elements are not isolated entities, but interact across the entire Earth system. Therefore, this thesis aims at mapping out the potential for tipping events and feedbacks in the Earth system mainly by the use of complex dynamical systems and network science approaches, but partially also by more detailed process-based models of the Earth system. In the first part of this thesis, the theoretical foundations are laid by the investigation of networks of interacting tipping elements. For this purpose, the conditions for the emergence of global cascades are analysed against the structure of paradigmatic network types such as Erd{\"o}s-R{\´e}nyi, Barab{\´a}si-Albert, Watts-Strogatz and explicitly spatially embedded networks. Furthermore, micro-scale structures are detected that are decisive for the transition of local to global cascades. These so-called motifs link the micro- to the macro-scale in the network of tipping elements. Alongside a model description paper, all these results are entered into the Python software package PyCascades, which is publicly available on github. In the second part of this dissertation, the tipping element framework is first applied to components of the Earth system such as the cryosphere and to parts of the biosphere. Afterwards it is applied to a set of interacting climate tipping elements on a global scale. Using the Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) CLIMBER-2, the temperature feedbacks are quantified, which would arise if some of the large cryosphere elements disintegrate over a long span of time. The cryosphere components that are investigated are the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheets. The committed temperature increase, in case the ice masses disintegrate, is on the order of an additional half a degree on a global average (0.39-0.46 °C), while local to regional additional temperature increases can exceed 5 °C. This means that, once tipping has begun, additional reinforcing feedbacks are able to increase global warming and with that the risk of further tipping events. This is also the case in the Amazon rainforest, whose parts are dependent on each other via the so-called moisture-recycling feedback. In this thesis, the importance of drought-induced tipping events in the Amazon rainforest is investigated in detail. Despite the Amazon rainforest is assumed to be adapted to past environmental conditions, it is found that tipping events sharply increase if the drought conditions become too intense in a too short amount of time, outpacing the adaptive capacity of the Amazon rainforest. In these cases, the frequency of tipping cascades also increases to 50\% (or above) of all tipping events. In the model that was developed in this study, the southeastern region of the Amazon basin is hit hardest by the simulated drought patterns. This is also the region that already nowadays suffers a lot from extensive human-induced changes due to large-scale deforestation, cattle ranching or infrastructure projects. Moreover, on the larger Earth system wide scale, a network of conceptualised climate tipping elements is constructed in this dissertation making use of a large literature review, expert knowledge and topological properties of the tipping elements. In global warming scenarios, tipping cascades are detected even under modest scenarios of climate change, limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. In addition, the structural roles of the climate tipping elements in the network are revealed. While the large ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica are the initiators of tipping cascades, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) acts as the transmitter of cascades. Furthermore, in our conceptual climate tipping element model, it is found that the ice sheets are of particular importance for the stability of the entire system of investigated climate tipping elements. In the last part of this thesis, the results from the temperature feedback study with the EMIC CLIMBER-2 are combined with the conceptual model of climate tipping elements. There, it is observed that the likelihood of further tipping events slightly increases due to the temperature feedbacks even if no further CO\$_2\$ would be added to the atmosphere. Although the developed network model is of conceptual nature, it is possible with this work for the first time to quantify the risk of tipping events between interacting components of the Earth system under global warming scenarios, by allowing for dynamic temperature feedbacks at the same time.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{Pikovsky2020,
  author    = {Pikovsky, Arkady},
  title     = {Scaling of energy spreading in a disordered Ding-Dong lattice},
  series = {Journal of statistical mechanics: theory and experiment},
  volume    = {2020},
  journal   = {Journal of statistical mechanics: theory and experiment},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {IOP Publishing Ltd.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1742-5468},
  doi       = {10.1088/1742-5468/ab7e30},
  pages     = {12},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {We study numerical propagation of energy in a one-dimensional Ding-Dong lattice composed of linear oscillators with elastic collisions. Wave propagation is suppressed by breaking translational symmetry, and we consider three ways to do this: position disorder, mass disorder, and a dimer lattice with alternating distances between the units. In all cases the spreading of an initially localized wavepacket is irregular, due to the appearance of chaos, and subdiffusive. For a range of energies and of weak and moderate levels of disorder, we focus on the macroscopic statistical characterization of spreading. Guided by a nonlinear diffusion equation, we establish that the mean waiting times of spreading obey a scaling law in dependence of energy. Moreover, we show that the spreading exponents very weakly depend on the level of disorder.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{BolotovSmirnovOsipovetal.2018,
  author    = {Bolotov, Maxim and Smirnov, Lev A. and Osipov, Grigory V. and Pikovskij, Arkadij},
  title     = {Complex chimera states in a nonlinearly coupled oscillatory medium},
  series = {2018 2nd School on Dynamics of Complex Networks and their Application in Intellectual Robotics (DCNAIR)},
  journal   = {2018 2nd School on Dynamics of Complex Networks and their Application in Intellectual Robotics (DCNAIR)},
  publisher = {IEEE},
  address   = {New York},
  isbn      = {978-1-5386-5818-5},
  doi       = {10.1109/DCNAIR.2018.8589210},
  pages     = {17 -- 20},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {We consider chimera states in a one-dimensional medium of nonlinear nonlocally coupled phase oscillators. Stationary inhomogeneous solutions of the Ott-Antonsen equation for a complex order parameter that correspond to fundamental chimeras have been constructed. Stability calculations reveal that only some of these states are stable. The direct numerical simulation has shown that these structures under certain conditions are transformed to breathing chimera regimes because of the development of instability. Further development of instability leads to turbulent chimeras.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Bergner2011,
  author    = {Bergner, Andr{\´e}},
  title     = {Synchronization in complex systems with multiple time scales},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-53407},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2011},
  abstract  = {In the present work synchronization phenomena in complex dynamical systems exhibiting multiple time scales have been analyzed. Multiple time scales can be active in different manners. Three different systems have been analyzed with different methods from data analysis. The first system studied is a large heterogenous network of bursting neurons, that is a system with two predominant time scales, the fast firing of action potentials (spikes) and the burst of repetitive spikes followed by a quiescent phase. This system has been integrated numerically and analyzed with methods based on recurrence in phase space. An interesting result are the different transitions to synchrony found in the two distinct time scales. Moreover, an anomalous synchronization effect can be observed in the fast time scale, i.e. there is range of the coupling strength where desynchronization occurs. The second system analyzed, numerically as well as experimentally, is a pair of coupled CO₂ lasers in a chaotic bursting regime. This system is interesting due to its similarity with epidemic models. We explain the bursts by different time scales generated from unstable periodic orbits embedded in the chaotic attractor and perform a synchronization analysis of these different orbits utilizing the continuous wavelet transform. We find a diverse route to synchrony of these different observed time scales. The last system studied is a small network motif of limit cycle oscillators. Precisely, we have studied a hub motif, which serves as elementary building block for scale-free networks, a type of network found in many real world applications. These hubs are of special importance for communication and information transfer in complex networks. Here, a detailed study on the mechanism of synchronization in oscillatory networks with a broad frequency distribution has been carried out. In particular, we find a remote synchronization of nodes in the network which are not directly coupled. We also explain the responsible mechanism and its limitations and constraints. Further we derive an analytic expression for it and show that information transmission in pure phase oscillators, such as the Kuramoto type, is limited. In addition to the numerical and analytic analysis an experiment consisting of electrical circuits has been designed. The obtained results confirm the former findings.},
  language  = {en}
}
@inproceedings{OPUS4-1412,
  title     = {The 3rd international IEEE scientific conference on physics and control (PhysCon 2007) : September 3rd-7th 2007 at the University of Potsdam},
  editor    = {Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Fradkov, Alexander and Chen, Guanrong},
  publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam},
  address   = {Potsdam},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-15228},
  pages     = {345},
  year      = {2007},
  abstract  = {During the last few years there was a tremendous growth of scientific activities in the fields related to both Physics and Control theory: nonlinear dynamics, micro- and nanotechnologies, self-organization and complexity, etc. New horizons were opened and new exciting applications emerged. Experts with different backgrounds starting to work together need more opportunities for information exchange to improve mutual understanding and cooperation. The Conference "Physics and Control 2007" is the third international conference focusing on the borderland between Physics and Control with emphasis on both theory and applications. With its 2007 address at Potsdam, Germany, the conference is located for the first time outside of Russia. The major goal of the Conference is to bring together researchers from different scientific communities and to gain some general and unified perspectives in the studies of controlled systems in physics, engineering, chemistry, biology and other natural sciences. We hope that the Conference helps experts in control theory to get acquainted with new interesting problems, and helps experts in physics and related fields to know more about ideas and tools from the modern control theory.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{GamezLopez2006,
  author    = {G{\´a}mez L{\´o}pez, Antonio Juan},
  title     = {Application of nonlinear dimensionality reduction to climate data for prediction},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-10956},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2006},
  abstract  = {This Thesis was devoted to the study of the coupled system composed by El Ni{\~n}o/Southern Oscillation and the Annual Cycle. More precisely, the work was focused on two main problems: 1. How to separate both oscillations into an affordable model for understanding the behaviour of the whole system. 2. How to model the system in order to achieve a better understanding of the interaction, as well as to predict future states of the system. We focused our efforts in the Sea Surface Temperature equations, considering that atmospheric effects were secondary to the ocean dynamics. The results found may be summarised as follows: 1. Linear methods are not suitable for characterising the dimensionality of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Therefore they do not help to separate the oscillations by themselves. Instead, nonlinear methods of dimensionality reduction are proven to be better in defining a lower limit for the dimensionality of the system as well as in explaining the statistical results in a more physical way [1]. In particular, Isomap, a nonlinear modification of Multidimensional Scaling methods, provides a physically appealing method of decomposing the data, as it substitutes the euclidean distances in the manifold by an approximation of the geodesic distances. We expect that this method could be successfully applied to other oscillatory extended systems and, in particular, to meteorological systems. 2. A three dimensional dynamical system could be modeled, using a backfitting algorithm, for describing the dynamics of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean. We observed that, although there were few data points available, we could predict future behaviours of the coupled ENSO-Annual Cycle system with an accuracy of less than six months, although the constructed system presented several drawbacks: few data points to input in the backfitting algorithm, untrained model, lack of forcing with external data and simplification using a close system. Anyway, ensemble prediction techniques showed that the prediction skills of the three dimensional time series were as good as those found in much more complex models. This suggests that the climatological system in the tropics is mainly explained by ocean dynamics, while the atmosphere plays a secondary role in the physics of the process. Relevant predictions for short lead times can be made using a low dimensional system, despite its simplicity. The analysis of the SST data suggests that nonlinear interaction between the oscillations is small, and that noise plays a secondary role in the fundamental dynamics of the oscillations [2]. A global view of the work shows a general procedure to face modeling of climatological systems. First, we should find a suitable method of either linear or nonlinear dimensionality reduction. Then, low dimensional time series could be extracted out of the method applied. Finally, a low dimensional model could be found using a backfitting algorithm in order to predict future states of the system.},
  subject      = {Nichtlineare Dynamik},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{MotterMatiasKurthsetal.2006,
  author    = {Motter, Adilson E. and Matias, Manuel A. and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Ott, Edward},
  title     = {Dynamics on complex networks and applications},
  series = {Physica. D, Nonlinear phenomena},
  volume    = {224},
  journal   = {Physica. D, Nonlinear phenomena},
  number    = {1-2},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0167-2789},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.physd.2006.09.012},
  pages     = {VII -- VIII},
  year      = {2006},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Knopf2006,
  author    = {Knopf, Brigitte},
  title     = {On intrinsic uncertainties in earth system modelling},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-10949},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2006},
  abstract  = {Uncertainties are pervasive in the Earth System modelling. This is not just due to a lack of knowledge about physical processes but has its seeds in intrinsic, i.e. inevitable and irreducible, uncertainties concerning the process of modelling as well. Therefore, it is indispensable to quantify uncertainty in order to determine, which are robust results under this inherent uncertainty. The central goal of this thesis is to explore how uncertainties map on the properties of interest such as phase space topology and qualitative dynamics of the system. We will address several types of uncertainty and apply methods of dynamical systems theory on a trendsetting field of climate research, i.e. the Indian monsoon. For the systematic analysis concerning the different facets of uncertainty, a box model of the Indian monsoon is investigated, which shows a saddle node bifurcation against those parameters that influence the heat budget of the system and that goes along with a regime shift from a wet to a dry summer monsoon. As some of these parameters are crucially influenced by anthropogenic perturbations, the question is whether the occurrence of this bifurcation is robust against uncertainties in parameters and in the number of considered processes and secondly, whether the bifurcation can be reached under climate change. Results indicate, for example, the robustness of the bifurcation point against all considered parameter uncertainties. The possibility of reaching the critical point under climate change seems rather improbable. A novel method is applied for the analysis of the occurrence and the position of the bifurcation point in the monsoon model against parameter uncertainties. This method combines two standard approaches: a bifurcation analysis with multi-parameter ensemble simulations. As a model-independent and therefore universal procedure, this method allows investigating the uncertainty referring to a bifurcation in a high dimensional parameter space in many other models. With the monsoon model the uncertainty about the external influence of El Ni{\~n}o / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is determined. There is evidence that ENSO influences the variability of the Indian monsoon, but the underlying physical mechanism is discussed controversially. As a contribution to the debate three different hypotheses are tested of how ENSO and the Indian summer monsoon are linked. In this thesis the coupling through the trade winds is identified as key in linking these two key climate constituents. On the basis of this physical mechanism the observed monsoon rainfall data can be reproduced to a great extent. Moreover, this mechanism can be identified in two general circulation models (GCMs) for the present day situation and for future projections under climate change. Furthermore, uncertainties in the process of coupling models are investigated, where the focus is on a comparison of forced dynamics as opposed to fully coupled dynamics. The former describes a particular type of coupling, where the dynamics from one sub-module is substituted by data. Intrinsic uncertainties and constraints are identified that prevent the consistency of a forced model with its fully coupled counterpart. Qualitative discrepancies between the two modelling approaches are highlighted, which lead to an overestimation of predictability and produce artificial predictability in the forced system. The results suggest that bistability and intermittent predictability, when found in a forced model set-up, should always be cross-validated with alternative coupling designs before being taken for granted. All in this, this thesis contributes to the fundamental issue of dealing with uncertainties the climate modelling community is confronted with. Although some uncertainties allow for including them in the interpretation of the model results, intrinsic uncertainties could be identified, which are inevitable within a certain modelling paradigm and are provoked by the specific modelling approach.},
  subject      = {Unsicherheit},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Ahlers2001,
  author    = {Ahlers, Volker},
  title     = {Scaling and synchronization in deterministic and stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-0000320},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2001},
  abstract  = {Gegenstand dieser Arbeit ist die Untersuchung universeller Skalengesetze, die in gekoppelten chaotischen Systemen beobachtet werden. Ergebnisse werden erzielt durch das Ersetzen der chaotischen Fluktuationen in der St{\"o}rungsdynamik durch stochastische Prozesse. Zun{\"a}chst wird ein zeitkontinuierliches stochastisches Modell f{\"u}rschwach gekoppelte chaotische Systeme eingef{\"u}hrt, um die Skalierung der Lyapunov-Exponenten mit der Kopplungsst{\"a}rke (coupling sensitivity of chaos) zu untersuchen. Mit Hilfe der Fokker-Planck-Gleichung werden Skalengesetze hergeleitet, die von Ergebnissen numerischer Simulationen best{\"a}tigt werden. Anschließend wird der neuartige Effekt der vermiedenen Kreuzung von Lyapunov-Exponenten schwach gekoppelter ungeordneter chaotischer Systeme beschrieben, der qualitativ der Abstoßung zwischen Energieniveaus in Quantensystemen {\"a}hnelt. Unter Benutzung der f{\"u}r die coupling sensitivity of chaos gewonnenen Skalengesetze wird ein asymptotischer Ausdruck f{\"u}r die Verteilungsfunktion kleiner Abst{\"a}nde zwischen Lyapunov-Exponenten hergeleitet und mit Ergebnissen numerischer Simulationen verglichen. Schließlich wird gezeigt, dass der Synchronisations{\"u}bergang in starkgekoppelten r{\"a}umlich ausgedehnten chaotischen Systemen einem kontinuierlichen Phasen{\"u}bergang entspricht, mit der Kopplungsst{\"a}rke und dem Synchronisationsfehler als Kontroll- beziehungsweise Ordnungsparameter. Unter Benutzung von Ergebnissen numerischer Simulationen sowie theoretischen {\"U}berlegungen anhand einer partiellen Differentialgleichung mit multiplikativem Rauschen werden die Universalit{\"a}tsklassen der zwei beobachteten {\"U}bergangsarten bestimmt (Kardar-Parisi-Zhang-Gleichung mit S{\"a}ttigungsterm, gerichtete Perkolation).},
  language  = {en}
}