@article{StolbovaSurovyatkinaBookhagenetal.2016,
  author    = {Stolbova, Veronika and Surovyatkina, Elena and Bookhagen, Bodo and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen},
  title     = {Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon: Prediction of onset and withdrawal},
  series = {Geophysical research letters},
  volume    = {43},
  journal   = {Geophysical research letters},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0094-8276},
  doi       = {10.1002/2016GL068392},
  pages     = {3982 -- 3990},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Forecasting the onset and withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon is crucial for the life and prosperity of more than one billion inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent. However, accurate prediction of monsoon timing remains a challenge, despite numerous efforts. Here we present a method for prediction of monsoon timing based on a critical transition precursor. We identify geographic regions-tipping elements of the monsoon-and use them as observation locations for predicting onset and withdrawal dates. Unlike most predictability methods, our approach does not rely on precipitation analysis but on air temperature and relative humidity, which are well represented both in models and observations. The proposed method allows to predict onset 2 weeks earlier and withdrawal dates 1.5 months earlier than existing methods. In addition, it enables to correctly forecast monsoon duration for some anomalous years, often associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MarwanSchwarzKurthsetal.2000,
  author    = {Marwan, Norbert and Schwarz, Udo and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Strecker, Manfred},
  title     = {ENSO Impact on landslide generation in northwestern Argentina},
  issn      = {1029-7006},
  year      = {2000},
  abstract  = {Climatic changes are of major importance in landslide generation in the Argentine Andes. Increased humidity as a potential influential factor was inferred from the temporal clustering of landslide deposits during a period of significantly wetter climate, 30,000 years ago. A change in seasonality was tested by comparing past (inferred from annual-layered lake deposits, 30,000 years old) and modern (present-day observations) precipitation changes. Quantitative analysis of cross recurrence plots were developed to compare the influence of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on present and past rainfall variations. This analysis has shown the stronger influence of NE trades in the location of landslide deposits in the intra-andean basin and valleys, what caused a higher contrast between summer and winter rainfall and an increasing of precipitation in La Nina years. This is believed to reduce thresholds for landslide generation in the arid to semiarid intra-andean basins and valleys.},
  language  = {en}
}