@article{StolbovaSurovyatkinaBookhagenetal.2016,
  author    = {Stolbova, Veronika and Surovyatkina, Elena and Bookhagen, Bodo and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen},
  title     = {Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon: Prediction of onset and withdrawal},
  series = {Geophysical research letters},
  volume    = {43},
  journal   = {Geophysical research letters},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0094-8276},
  doi       = {10.1002/2016GL068392},
  pages     = {3982 -- 3990},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Forecasting the onset and withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon is crucial for the life and prosperity of more than one billion inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent. However, accurate prediction of monsoon timing remains a challenge, despite numerous efforts. Here we present a method for prediction of monsoon timing based on a critical transition precursor. We identify geographic regions-tipping elements of the monsoon-and use them as observation locations for predicting onset and withdrawal dates. Unlike most predictability methods, our approach does not rely on precipitation analysis but on air temperature and relative humidity, which are well represented both in models and observations. The proposed method allows to predict onset 2 weeks earlier and withdrawal dates 1.5 months earlier than existing methods. In addition, it enables to correctly forecast monsoon duration for some anomalous years, often associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{LechleitnerBaldiniBreitenbachetal.2016,
  author    = {Lechleitner, Franziska A. and Baldini, James U. L. and Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin and Fohlmeister, Jens Bernd and McIntyre, Cameron and Goswami, Bedartha and Jamieson, Robert A. and van der Voort, Tessa S. and Prufer, Keith and Marwan, Norbert and Culleton, Brendan J. and Kennett, Douglas J. and Asmerom, Yemane and Polyak, Victor and Eglinton, Timothy I.},
  title     = {Hydrological and climatological controls on radiocarbon concentrations in a tropical stalagmite},
  series = {Geochimica et cosmochimica acta : journal of the Geochemical Society and the Meteoritical Society},
  volume    = {194},
  journal   = {Geochimica et cosmochimica acta : journal of the Geochemical Society and the Meteoritical Society},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0016-7037},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.gca.2016.08.039},
  pages     = {233 -- 252},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Precisely-dated stalagmites are increasingly important archives for the reconstruction of terrestrial paleoclimate at very high temporal resolution. In-depth understanding of local conditions at the cave site and of the processes driving stalagmite deposition is of paramount importance for interpreting proxy signals incorporated in stalagmite carbonate. Here we present a sub-decadally resolved dead carbon fraction (DCF) record for a stalagmite from Yok Balum Cave (southern Belize). The record is coupled to parallel stable carbon isotope (delta C-13) and U/Ca measurements, as well as radiocarbon (C-14) measurements from soils overlying the cave system. Using a karst carbon cycle model we disentangle the importance of soil and karst processes on stalagmite DCF incorporation, revealing a dominant host rock dissolution control on total DCF. Covariation between DCF, delta C-13, and U/Ca indicates that karst processes are a common driver of all three parameters, suggesting possible use of delta C-13 and trace element ratios to independently quantify DCF variability. A statistically significant multi-decadal lag of variable length exists between DCF and reconstructed solar activity, suggesting that solar activity influenced regional precipitation in Mesoamerica over the past 1500 years, but that the relationship was non-static. Although the precise nature of the observed lag is unclear, solar-induced changes in North Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric dynamics may play a role. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}