@article{SeroussiNowickiPayneetal.2020, author = {Seroussi, Helene and Nowicki, Sophie and Payne, Antony J. and Goelzer, Heiko and Lipscomb, William H. and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako and Agosta, Cecile and Albrecht, Torsten and Asay-Davis, Xylar and Barthel, Alice and Calov, Reinhard and Cullather, Richard and Dumas, Christophe and Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. and Gladstone, Rupert and Golledge, Nicholas R. and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Greve, Ralf and Hattermann, Tore and Hoffman, Matthew J. and Humbert, Angelika and Huybrechts, Philippe and Jourdain, Nicolas C. and Kleiner, Thomas and Larour, Eric and Leguy, Gunter R. and Lowry, Daniel P. and Little, Chistopher M. and Morlighem, Mathieu and Pattyn, Frank and Pelle, Tyler and Price, Stephen F. and Quiquet, Aurelien and Reese, Ronja and Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne and Shepherd, Andrew and Simon, Erika and Smith, Robin S. and Straneo, Fiammetta and Sun, Sainan and Trusel, Luke D. and Van Breedam, Jonas and van de Wal, Roderik S. W. and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Zhao, Chen and Zhang, Tong and Zwinger, Thomas}, title = {ISMIP6 Antarctica}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {14}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {9}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020}, pages = {3033 -- 3070}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between 7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between 6 :1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.}, language = {en} } @article{ReeseLevermannAlbrechtetal.2020, author = {Reese, Ronja and Levermann, Anders and Albrecht, Torsten and Seroussi, Helene and Winkelmann, Ricarda}, title = {The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {14}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {9}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020}, pages = {3097 -- 3110}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent acceleration of the inland ice streams are the major reasons for currently observed mass loss from Antarctica and are expected to become more important in the future. Here we show that for projections of future mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, it is essential (1) to better constrain the sensitivity of sub-shelf melt rates to ocean warming and (2) to include the historic trajectory of the ice sheet. In particular, we find that while the ice sheet response in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model is comparable to the median response of models in three Antarctic Ice Sheet Intercomparison projects - initMIP, LARMIP-2 and ISMIP6 - conducted with a range of ice sheet models, the projected 21st century sea level contribution differs significantly depending on these two factors. For the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, this leads to projected ice loss ranging from 1:4 to 4:0 cm of sea level equivalent in simulations in which ISMIP6 ocean forcing drives the PICO ocean box model where parameter tuning leads to a comparably low sub-shelf melt sensitivity and in which no surface forcing is applied. This is opposed to a likely range of 9:1 to 35:8 cm using the exact same initial setup, but emulated from the LARMIP-2 experiments with a higher melt sensitivity, even though both projects use forcing from climate models and melt rates are calibrated with previous oceanographic studies. Furthermore, using two initial states, one with a previous historic simulation from 1850 to 2014 and one starting from a steady state, we show that while differences between the ice sheet configurations in 2015 seem marginal at first sight, the historic simulation increases the susceptibility of the ice sheet to ocean warming, thereby increasing mass loss from 2015 to 2100 by 5\% to 50 \%. Hindcasting past ice sheet changes with numerical models would thus provide valuable tools to better constrain projections. Our results emphasize that the uncertainty that arises from the forcing is of the same order of magnitude as the ice dynamic response for future sea level projections.}, language = {en} } @article{ZeitzLevermannWinkelmann2020, author = {Zeitz, Maria and Levermann, Anders and Winkelmann, Ricarda}, title = {Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {14}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {10}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020}, pages = {3537 -- 3550}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Acceleration of the flow of ice drives mass losses in both the Antarctic and the Greenland Ice Sheet. The projections of possible future sea-level rise rely on numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physics of ice flow, melt, and calving. While major advancements have been made by the ice-sheet modeling community in addressing several of the related uncertainties, the flow law, which is at the center of most process-based ice-sheet models, is not in the focus of the current scientific debate. However, recent studies show that the flow law parameters are highly uncertain and might be different from the widely accepted standard values. Here, we use an idealized flow-line setup to investigate how these uncertainties in the flow law translate into uncertainties in flow-driven mass loss. In order to disentangle the effect of future warming on the ice flow from other effects, we perform a suite of experiments with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), deliberately excluding changes in the surface mass balance. We find that changes in the flow parameters within the observed range can lead up to a doubling of the flow-driven mass loss within the first centuries of warming, compared to standard parameters. The spread of ice loss due to the uncertainty in flow parameters is on the same order of magnitude as the increase in mass loss due to surface warming. While this study focuses on an idealized flow-line geometry, it is likely that this uncertainty carries over to realistic three-dimensional simulations of Greenland and Antarctica.}, language = {en} } @article{ReeseGudmundssonLevermannetal.2017, author = {Reese, Ronja and Gudmundsson, Gudmundur Hilmar and Levermann, Anders and Winkelmann, Ricarda}, title = {The far reach of ice-shelf thinning in Antarctica}, series = {Nature climate change}, volume = {8}, journal = {Nature climate change}, number = {1}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {1758-678X}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-017-0020-x}, pages = {53 -- 57}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Floating ice shelves, which fringe most of Antarctica's coastline, regulate ice flow into the Southern Ocean1,2,3. Their thinning4,5,6,7 or disintegration8,9 can cause upstream acceleration of grounded ice and raise global sea levels. So far the effect has not been quantified in a comprehensive and spatially explicit manner. Here, using a finite-element model, we diagnose the immediate, continent-wide flux response to different spatial patterns of ice-shelf mass loss. We show that highly localized ice-shelf thinning can reach across the entire shelf and accelerate ice flow in regions far from the initial perturbation. As an example, this 'tele-buttressing' enhances outflow from Bindschadler Ice Stream in response to thinning near Ross Island more than 900 km away. We further find that the integrated flux response across all grounding lines is highly dependent on the location of imposed changes: the strongest response is caused not only near ice streams and ice rises, but also by thinning, for instance, well-within the Filchner-Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves. The most critical regions in all major ice shelves are often located in regions easily accessible to the intrusion of warm ocean waters10,11,12, stressing Antarctica's vulnerability to changes in its surrounding ocean.}, language = {en} } @article{KreuzerReeseHuiskampetal.2021, author = {Kreuzer, Moritz and Reese, Ronja and Huiskamp, Willem Nicholas and Petri, Stefan and Albrecht, Torsten and Feulner, Georg and Winkelmann, Ricarda}, title = {Coupling framework (1.0) for the PISM (1.1.4) ice sheet model and the MOMS (5.1.0) ocean model via the PICO ice shelf cavity model in an Antarctic domain}, series = {Geoscientific model development : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {14}, journal = {Geoscientific model development : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {6}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1991-959X}, doi = {10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021}, pages = {3697 -- 3714}, year = {2021}, abstract = {The past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is largely controlled by interactions between the ocean and floating ice shelves. To investigate these interactions, coupled ocean and ice sheet model configurations are required. Previous modelling studies have mostly relied on high-resolution configurations, limiting these studies to individual glaciers or regions over short timescales of decades to a few centuries. We present a framework to couple the dynamic ice sheet model PISM (Parallel Ice Sheet Model) with the global ocean general circulation model MOM5 (Modular Ocean Model) via the ice shelf cavity model PICO (Pots-dam Ice-shelf Cavity mOdel). As ice shelf cavities are not resolved by MOM5 but are parameterized with the PICO box model, the framework allows the ice sheet and ocean components to be run at resolutions of 16 km and 3 degrees respectively. This approach makes the coupled configuration a useful tool for the analysis of interactions between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global ocean over time spans of the order of centuries to millennia. In this study, we describe the technical implementation of this coupling framework: sub-shelf melting in the ice sheet component is calculated by PICO from modelled ocean temperatures and salinities at the depth of the continental shelf, and, vice versa, the resulting mass and energy fluxes from melting at the ice-ocean interface are transferred to the ocean component. Mass and energy fluxes are shown to be conserved to machine precision across the considered component domains. The implementation is computationally efficient as it introduces only minimal overhead. Furthermore, the coupled model is evaluated in a 4000 year simulation under constant present-day climate forcing and is found to be stable with respect to the ocean and ice sheet spin-up states. The framework deals with heterogeneous spatial grid geometries, varying grid resolutions, and timescales between the ice and ocean component in a generic way; thus, it can be adopted to a wide range of model set-ups.}, language = {en} } @article{ZeitzHaackerDongesetal.2022, author = {Zeitz, Maria and Haacker, Jan M. and Donges, Jonathan and Albrecht, Torsten and Winkelmann, Ricarda}, title = {Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt-elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks}, series = {Earth system dynamics}, volume = {13}, journal = {Earth system dynamics}, number = {3}, publisher = {Copernicus Publ.}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {2190-4979}, doi = {10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022}, pages = {1077 -- 1096}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is governed by a number of dynamic processes and interacting feedback mechanisms in the ice sheet, atmosphere and solid Earth. Here we study the long-term effects due to the interplay of the competing melt-elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) feedbacks for different temperature step forcing experiments with a coupled ice-sheet and solid-Earth model. Our model results show that for warming levels above 2 degrees C, Greenland could become essentially ice-free within several millennia, mainly as a result of surface melting and acceleration of ice flow. These ice losses are mitigated, however, in some cases with strong GIA feedback even promoting an incomplete recovery of the Greenland ice volume. We further explore the full-factorial parameter space determining the relative strengths of the two feedbacks: our findings suggest distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheets on the route to destabilization under global warming - from incomplete recovery, via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice-sheet collapse. In the incomplete recovery regime, the initial ice loss due to warming is essentially reversed within 50 000 years, and the ice volume stabilizes at 61 \%-93 \% of the present-day volume. For certain combinations of temperature increase, atmospheric lapse rate and mantle viscosity, the interaction of the GIA feedback and the melt-elevation feedback leads to self-sustained, long-term oscillations in ice-sheet volume with oscillation periods between 74 000 and over 300 000 years and oscillation amplitudes between 15 \%-70 \% of present-day ice volume. This oscillatory regime reveals a possible mode of internal climatic variability in the Earth system on timescales on the order of 100 000 years that may be excited by or synchronized with orbital forcing or interact with glacial cycles and other slow modes of variability. Our findings are not meant as scenario-based near-term projections of ice losses but rather providing insight into of the feedback loops governing the "deep future" and, thus, long-term resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet.}, language = {en} } @article{AlbrechtWinkelmannLevermann2020, author = {Albrecht, Torsten and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {14}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {2}, publisher = {Copernicus Publ.}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-14-633-2020}, pages = {633 -- 656}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) is applied to the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last two glacial cycles (approximate to 210 000 years) with a resolution of 16 km. An ensemble of 256 model runs is analyzed in which four relevant model parameters have been systematically varied using full-factorial parameter sampling. Parameters and plausible parameter ranges have been identified in a companion paper (Albrecht et al., 2020) and are associated with ice dynamics, climatic forcing, basal sliding and bed deformation and represent distinct classes of model uncertainties. The model is scored against both modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding-line locations, elevation-age data, ice thickness, surface velocities and uplift rates. An aggregated score is computed for each ensemble member that measures the overall model-data misfit, including measurement uncertainty in terms of a Gaussian error model (Briggs and Tarasov, 2013). The statistical method used to analyze the ensemble simulation results follows closely the simple averaging method described in Pollard et al. (2016). This analysis reveals clusters of best-fit parameter combinations, and hence a likely range of relevant model and boundary parameters, rather than individual best-fit parameters. The ensemble of reconstructed histories of Antarctic Ice Sheet volumes provides a score-weighted likely range of sea-level contributions since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) of 9.4 +/- 4.1m (or 6.5 +/- 2.0 x 10(6) km(3)), which is at the upper range of most previous studies. The last deglaciation occurs in all ensemble simulations after around 12 000 years before present and hence after the meltwater pulse 1A (MWP1a). Our ensemble analysis also provides an estimate of parametric uncertainty bounds for the present-day state that can be used for PISM projections of future sea-level contributions from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.}, language = {en} } @article{GarbeAlbrechtLevermannetal.2020, author = {Garbe, Julius and Albrecht, Torsten and Levermann, Anders and Donges, Jonathan and Winkelmann, Ricarda}, title = {The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet}, series = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, volume = {585}, journal = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, number = {7826}, publisher = {Macmillan Publishers Limited}, address = {Berlin}, issn = {0028-0836}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5}, pages = {538 -- 544}, year = {2020}, abstract = {More than half of Earth's freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions(1). Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth give rise to potential nonlinearities in its response to temperature changes. So far, we are lacking a comprehensive stability analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet for different amounts of global warming. Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible. Consistent with palaeodata(2)we find, using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model(3-5), that at global warming levels around 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, West Antarctica is committed to long-term partial collapse owing to the marine ice-sheet instability. Between 6 and 9 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, the loss of more than 70 per cent of the present-day ice volume is triggered, mainly caused by the surface elevation feedback. At more than 10 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, Antarctica is committed to become virtually ice-free. The ice sheet's temperature sensitivity is 1.3 metres of sea-level equivalent per degree of warming up to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, almost doubling to 2.4 metres per degree of warming between 2 and 6 degrees and increasing to about 10 metres per degree of warming between 6 and 9 degrees. Each of these thresholds gives rise to hysteresis behaviour: that is, the currently observed ice-sheet configuration is not regained even if temperatures are reversed to present-day levels. In particular, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does not regrow to its modern extent until temperatures are at least one degree Celsius lower than pre-industrial levels. Our results show that if the Paris Agreement is not met, Antarctica's long-term sea-level contribution will dramatically increase and exceed that of all other sources.
Modelling shows that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits multiple temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss would become irreversible, and once melted, the ice sheet can regain its previous mass only if the climate cools well below pre-industrial temperatures.}, language = {en} } @article{SchlemmFeldmannWinkelmannetal.2022, author = {Schlemm, Tanja and Feldmann, Johannes and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Stabilizing effect of melange buttressing on the marine ice-cliff instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {16}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {5}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022}, pages = {1979 -- 1996}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Owing to global warming and particularly high regional ocean warming, both Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers in the Amundsen region of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could lose their buttressing ice shelves over time. We analyse the possible consequences using the parallel ice sheet model (PISM), applying a simple cliff-calving parameterization and an ice melange-buttressing model. We find that the instantaneous loss of ice-shelf buttressing, due to enforced ice-shelf melting, initiates grounding-line retreat and triggers marine ice sheet instability (MISI). As a consequence, the grounding line progresses into the interior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and leads to a sea level contribution of 0.6 m within 100 a. By subjecting the exposed ice cliffs to cliff calving using our simplified parameterization, we also analyse marine ice cliff instability (MICI). In our simulations it can double or even triple the sea level contribution depending on the only loosely constrained parameter that determines the maximum cliff-calving rate. The speed of MICI depends on this upper bound of the calving rate, which is given by the ice melange buttressing the glacier. However, stabilization of MICI may occur for geometric reasons. Because the embayment geometry changes as MICI advances into the interior of the ice sheet, the upper bound on calving rates is reduced and the progress of MICI is slowed down. Although we cannot claim that our simulations bear relevant quantitative estimates of the effect of ice-melange buttressing on MICI, the mechanism has the potential to stop the instability. Further research is needed to evaluate its role for the past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Bastian2023, author = {Bastian, Martin}, title = {An emergent machine learning approach for seasonal cyclone activity forecasts}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {135}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Seasonal forecasts are of great interest in many areas. Knowing the amount of precipitation for the upcoming season in regions of water scarcity would facilitate a better water management. If farmers knew the weather conditions of the upcoming summer at sowing time, they could select those cereal species that are best adapted to these conditions. This would allow farmers to improve the harvest and potentially even reduce the amount of pesticides used. However, the undoubted advantages of seasonal forecasts are often opposed by their high degree of uncertainty. The great challenge of generating seasonal forecasts with lead times of several months mainly originates from the chaotic nature of the earth system. In a chaotic system, even tiny differences in the initial conditions can lead to strong deviations in the system's state in the long run. In this dissertation we propose an emergent machine learning approach for seasonal forecasting, called the AnlgModel. The AnlgModel combines the analogue method with myopic feature selection and bootstrapping. To benchmark the abilities of the AnlgModel we apply it to seasonal cyclone activity forecasts in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific. The AnlgModel demonstrates competitive hindcast skills with two operational forecasts and even outperforms these for long lead times. In the second chapter we comprehend the forecasting strategy of the Anlg-Model. We thereby analyse the analogue selection process for the 2017 North Atlantic and the 2018 Northwest Pacific seasonal cyclone activity. The analysis shows that those climate indices which are known to influence the seasonal cyclone activity, such as the Ni{\~n}o 3.4 SST, are correctly represented among the selected analogues. Furthermore the selected analogues reflect large-scale climate patterns that were identified by expert reports as being determinative for these particular seasons. In the third chapter we analyse the features that are used by the AnlgModel for its predictions. We therefore inspect the feature relevance (FR). The FR patterns learned by the AnlgModel show a high congruence with the predictor regions used by the operational forecasts. However, the AnlgModel also discovered new features, such as the SST anomaly in the Gulf of Guinea during November. This SST pattern exhibits a remarkably high predictive potential for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane activity. In the final chapter we investigate potential mechanisms, that link two of these regions with high feature relevance to the Atlantic hurricane activity. We mainly focus on ocean surface transport. The ocean surface flow paths are calculated using Lagrangian particle analysis. We demonstrate that the FR patterns in the region of the Canary islands do not correspond with ocean surface transport. It is instead likely that these FR patterns fingerprint a wind transport of latent heat. The second region to be studied is situated in the Gulf of Guinea. Our analysis shows that the FR patterns seen there do fingerprint ocean surface transport. However, our simulations also show that at least one other mechanism is involved in linking the Gulf of Guinea SST anomaly in November to the hurricane activity of the upcoming season. In this work the AnlgModel does not only demonstrate its outstanding forecast skills but also shows its capabilities as research tool for detecting oceanic and atmospheric mechanisms.}, language = {en} } @article{FeldmannReeseWinkelmannetal.2022, author = {Feldmann, Johannes and Reese, Ronja and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Shear-margin melting causes stronger transient ice discharge than ice-stream melting in idealized simulations}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {16}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {5}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-16-1927-2022}, pages = {1927 -- 1940}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Basal ice-shelf melting is the key driver of Antarctica's increasing sea-level contribution. In diminishing the buttressing force of the ice shelves that fringe the ice sheet, the melting increases the ice discharge into the ocean. Here we contrast the influence of basal melting in two different ice-shelf regions on the time-dependent response of an isothermal, inherently buttressed ice-sheet-shelf system. In the idealized numerical simulations, the basal-melt perturbations are applied close to the grounding line in the ice-shelf's (1) ice-stream region, where the ice shelf is fed by the fastest ice masses that stream through the upstream bed trough and (2) shear margins, where the ice flow is slower. The results show that melting below one or both of the shear margins can cause a decadal to centennial increase in ice discharge that is more than twice as large compared to a similar perturbation in the ice-stream region. We attribute this to the fact that melt-induced ice-shelf thinning in the central grounding-line region is attenuated very effectively by the fast flow of the central ice stream. In contrast, the much slower ice dynamics in the lateral shear margins of the ice shelf facilitate sustained ice-shelf thinning and thereby foster buttressing reduction. Regardless of the melt location, a higher melt concentration toward the grounding line generally goes along with a stronger response. Our results highlight the vulnerability of outlet glaciers to basal melting in stagnant, buttressing-relevant ice-shelf regions, a mechanism that may gain importance under future global warming.}, language = {en} } @article{WunderlingWilleitDongesetal.2020, author = {Wunderling, Nico and Willeit, Matteo and Donges, Jonathan and Winkelmann, Ricarda}, title = {Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice}, series = {Nature Communications}, volume = {11}, journal = {Nature Communications}, number = {1}, publisher = {Nature Publishing Group}, address = {Berlin}, issn = {2041-1723}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3}, pages = {14}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C (interquartile range: 0.39-0.46 degrees C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55\%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30\%) and cloud feedbacks (15\%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. The disintegration of cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctica is associated with temperature and radiative feedbacks. In this work, the authors quantify these feedbacks and find an additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C.}, language = {en} } @article{ZeitzReeseBeckmannetal.2021, author = {Zeitz, Maria and Reese, Ronja and Beckmann, Johanna and Krebs-Kanzow, Uta and Winkelmann, Ricarda}, title = {Impact of the melt-albedo feedback on the future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet with PISM-dEBM-simple}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {15}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {12}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {Katlenburg-Lindau}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-15-5739-2021}, pages = {5739 -- 5764}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Surface melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes a large amount to current and future sea level rise. Increased surface melt may lower the reflectivity of the ice sheet surface and thereby increase melt rates: the so-called melt-albedo feedback describes this self-sustaining increase in surface melting. In order to test the effect of the melt-albedo feedback in a prognostic ice sheet model, we implement dEBM-simple, a simplified version of the diurnal Energy Balance Model dEBM, in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The implementation includes a simple representation of the melt-albedo feedback and can thereby replace the positive-degree-day melt scheme. Using PISM-dEBM-simple, we find that this feedback increases ice loss through surface warming by 60 \% until 2300 for the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 when compared to a scenario in which the albedo remains constant at its present-day values. With an increase of 90 \% compared to a fixed-albedo scenario, the effect is more pronounced for lower surface warming under RCP2.6. Furthermore, assuming an immediate darkening of the ice surface over all summer months, we estimate an upper bound for this effect to be 70 \% in the RCP8.5 scenario and a more than 4-fold increase under RCP2.6. With dEBM-simple implemented in PISM, we find that the melt-albedo feedback is an essential contributor to mass loss in dynamic simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet under future warming.}, language = {en} } @article{KloseWunderlingWinkelmannetal.2021, author = {Klose, Ann Kristin and Wunderling, Nico and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Donges, Jonathan}, title = {What do we mean, 'tipping cascade'?}, series = {Environmental research letters : ERL}, volume = {16}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL}, number = {12}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955}, pages = {11}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth's climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied. The activation of such tipping cascades would impose a considerable risk for human societies and biosphere integrity. However, there are ambiguities in the description of tipping cascades within the literature so far. Here we illustrate how different patterns of multiple tipping dynamics emerge from a very simple coupling of two previously studied idealized tipping elements. In particular, we distinguish between a two phase cascade, a domino cascade and a joint cascade. A mitigation of an unfolding two phase cascade may be possible and common early warning indicators are sensitive to upcoming critical transitions to a certain degree. In contrast, a domino cascade may hardly be stopped once initiated and critical slowing down-based indicators fail to indicate tipping of the following element. These different potentials for intervention and anticipation across the distinct patterns of multiple tipping dynamics should be seen as a call to be more precise in future analyses of cascading dynamics arising from tipping element interactions in the Earth system.}, language = {en} } @article{DurandvandenBroekeLeCozannetetal.2022, author = {Durand, Gael and van den Broeke, Michiel R. and Le Cozannet, Goneri and Edwards, Tamsin L. and Holland, Paul R. and Jourdain, Nicolas C. and Marzeion, Ben and Mottram, Ruth and Nicholls, Robert J. and Pattyn, Frank and Paul, Frank and Slangen, Aimee B. A. and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Burgard, Clara and van Calcar, Caroline J. and Barre, Jean-Baptiste and Bataille, Amelie and Chapuis, Anne}, title = {Sea-Level rise: from global perspectives to local services}, series = {Frontiers in Marine Science}, volume = {8}, journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science}, publisher = {Frontiers Media}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {2296-7745}, doi = {10.3389/fmars.2021.709595}, pages = {8}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Coastal areas are highly diverse, ecologically rich, regions of key socio-economic activity, and are particularly sensitive to sea-level change. Over most of the 20th century, global mean sea level has risen mainly due to warming and subsequent expansion of the upper ocean layers as well as the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Over the last three decades, increased mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has also started to contribute significantly to contemporary sea-level rise. The future mass loss of the two ice sheets, which combined represent a sea-level rise potential of similar to 65 m, constitutes the main source of uncertainty in long-term (centennial to millennial) sea-level rise projections. Improved knowledge of the magnitude and rate of future sea-level change is therefore of utmost importance. Moreover, sea level does not change uniformly across the globe and can differ greatly at both regional and local scales. The most appropriate and feasible sea level mitigation and adaptation measures in coastal regions strongly depend on local land use and associated risk aversion. Here, we advocate that addressing the problem of future sea-level rise and its impacts requires (i) bringing together a transdisciplinary scientific community, from climate and cryospheric scientists to coastal impact specialists, and (ii) interacting closely and iteratively with users and local stakeholders to co-design and co-build coastal climate services, including addressing the high-end risks.}, language = {en} } @article{KramerBouriaudFeindtetal.2022, author = {Kramer, Koen and Bouriaud, Laura and Feindt, Peter H. and van Wassenaer, Lan and Glanemann, Nicole and Hanewinkel, Marc and van der Heide, Martijn and Hengeveld, Geerten M. and Hoogstra, Marjanke and Ingram, Verina and Levermann, Anders and Lindner, Marcus and M{\´a}ty{\´a}s, Csaba and Mohren, Frits and Muys, Bart and Nabuurs, Gert-Jan and Palahi, Marc and Polman, Nico and Reyer, Christopher P. O. and Schulze, Ernst-Detlef and Seidl, Rupert and de Vries, Wim and Werners, Saskia E. and Winkel, Georg and Yousefpour, Rasoul}, title = {Perspective Roadmap to develop a stress test for forest ecosystem services supply}, series = {One Earth}, volume = {5}, journal = {One Earth}, number = {1}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {2590-3330}, doi = {10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.009}, pages = {25 -- 34}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Forests play a key role in a bio-based economy by providing renewable materials, mitigating climate change, and accommodating biodiversity. However, forests experience massive increases in stresses in their ecological and socioeconomic environments, threatening forest ecosystem services supply. Alleviating those stresses is hampered by conflicting and disconnected governance arrangements, competing interests and claims, and rapid changes in technology and social demands. Identifying which stresses threaten forest ecosystem services supply and which factors hamper their alleviation requires stakeholders' perceptions. Stakeholder-oriented stress tests for the supply of forest ecosystem services are therefore necessary but are not yet available. This perspective presents a roadmap to develop a stress test tailored to multiple stakeholders' needs and demands across spatial scales. We provide the Cascade and Resilience Rosetta, with accompanying performance- and resilience indicators, as tools to facilitate development of the stress test. The application of the stress test will facilitate the transition toward a bio-based economy in which healthy and diverse forests provide sustainable and resilient ecosystem services.}, language = {en} } @article{DamleSparreRichteretal.2022, author = {Damle, Mitali and Sparre, Martin and Richter, Philipp and Hani, Maan H. and Nuza, Sebastian and Pfrommer, Christoph and Grand, Robert J. J. and Hoffman, Yehuda and Libeskind, Noam and Sorce, Jenny and Steinmetz, Mathias and Tempel, Elmo and Vogelsberger, Mark and Wang, Peng}, title = {Cold and hot gas distribution around the Milky-Way - M31 system in the HESTIA simulations}, series = {Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}, volume = {512}, journal = {Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0035-8711}, doi = {10.1093/mnras/stac663}, pages = {3717 -- 3737}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Recent observations have revealed remarkable insights into the gas reservoir in the circumgalactic medium (CGM) of galaxy haloes. In this paper, we characterise the gas in the vicinity of Milky Way and Andromeda analogues in the hestia (High resolution Environmental Simulations of The Immediate Area) suite of constrained Local Group (LG) simulations. The hestia suite comprise of a set of three high-resolution arepo-based simulations of the LG, run using the Auriga galaxy formation model. For this paper, we focus only on the 𝑧 = 0 simulation datasets and generate mock skymaps along with a power spectrum analysis to show that the distributions of ions tracing low-temperature gas (H i and Si iii) are more clumpy in comparison to warmer gas tracers (O vi, O vii and O viii). We compare to the spectroscopic CGM observations of M31 and low-redshift galaxies. hestia under-produces the column densities of the M31 observations, but the simulations are consistent with the observations of low-redshift galaxies. A possible explanation for these findings is that the spectroscopic observations of M31 are contaminated by gas residing in the CGM of the Milky Way.}, language = {en} } @article{HuthPangTewsetal.2022, author = {Huth, Sabrina and Pang, Peter Tsun Ho and Tews, Ingo and Dietrich, Tim and Le F{\`e}vre, Arnaud and Schwenk, Achim and Trautmann, Wolfgang and Agarwal, Kshitij and Bulla, Mattia and Coughlin, Michael W. and Van den Broeck, Chris}, title = {Constraining neutron-star matter with microscopic and macroscopic collisions}, series = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, volume = {606}, journal = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, number = {7913}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London [u.a.]}, issn = {0028-0836}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-022-04750-w}, pages = {276 -- 295}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Interpreting high-energy, astrophysical phenomena, such as supernova explosions or neutron-star collisions, requires a robust understanding of matter at supranuclear densities. However, our knowledge about dense matter explored in the cores of neutron stars remains limited. Fortunately, dense matter is not probed only in astrophysical observations, but also in terrestrial heavy-ion collision experiments. Here we use Bayesian inference to combine data from astrophysical multi-messenger observations of neutron stars(1-9) and from heavy-ion collisions of gold nuclei at relativistic energies(10,11) with microscopic nuclear theory calculations(12-17) to improve our understanding of dense matter. We find that the inclusion of heavy-ion collision data indicates an increase in the pressure in dense matter relative to previous analyses, shifting neutron-star radii towards larger values, consistent with recent observations by the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer mission(5-8,18). Our findings show that constraints from heavy-ion collision experiments show a remarkable consistency with multi-messenger observations and provide complementary information on nuclear matter at intermediate densities. This work combines nuclear theory, nuclear experiment and astrophysical observations, and shows how joint analyses can shed light on the properties of neutron-rich supranuclear matter over the density range probed in neutron stars.}, language = {en} } @article{PangDietrichTewsetal.2020, author = {Pang, Peter Tsun Ho and Dietrich, Tim and Tews, Ingo and Van Den Broeck, Chris}, title = {Parameter estimation for strong phase transitions in supranuclear matter using gravitational-wave astronomy}, series = {Physical review research}, volume = {2}, journal = {Physical review research}, number = {3}, publisher = {American Physical Society}, address = {College Park}, issn = {2643-1564}, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevResearch.2.033514}, pages = {17}, year = {2020}, abstract = {At supranuclear densities, explored in the core of neutron stars, a strong phase transition from hadronic matter to more exotic forms of matter might be present. To test this hypothesis, binary neutron-star mergers offer a unique possibility to probe matter at densities that we cannot create in any existing terrestrial experiment. In this work, we show that, if present, strong phase transitions can have a measurable imprint on the binary neutron-star coalescence and the emitted gravitational-wave signal. We construct a new parametrization of the supranuclear equation of state that allows us to test for the existence of a strong phase transition and extract its characteristic properties purely from the gravitational-wave signal of the inspiraling neutron stars. We test our approach using a Bayesian inference study simulating 600 signals with three different equations of state and find that for current gravitational-wave detector networks already 12 events might be sufficient to verify the presence of a strong phase transition. Finally, we use our methodology to analyze GW170817 and GW190425 but do not find any indication that a strong phase transition is present at densities probed during the inspiral.}, language = {en} } @article{KunertPangTewsetal.2022, author = {Kunert, Nina and Pang, Peter T. H. and Tews, Ingo and Coughlin, Michael W. and Dietrich, Tim}, title = {Quantifying modeling uncertainties when combining multiple gravitational-wave detections from binary neutron star sources}, series = {Physical review D}, volume = {105}, journal = {Physical review D}, number = {6}, publisher = {American Physical Society}, address = {College Park}, issn = {2470-0010}, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevD.105.L061301}, pages = {7}, year = {2022}, abstract = {With the increasing sensitivity of gravitational-wave detectors, we expect to observe multiple binary neutron-star systems through gravitational waves in the near future. The combined analysis of these gravitational-wave signals offers the possibility to constrain the neutron-star radius and the equation of state of dense nuclear matter with unprecedented accuracy. However, it is crucial to ensure that uncertainties inherent in the gravitational-wave models will not lead to systematic biases when information from multiple detections is combined. To quantify waveform systematics, we perform an extensive simulation campaign of binary neutron-star sources and analyze them with a set of four different waveform models. For our analysis with 38 simulations, we find that statistical uncertainties in the neutron-star radius decrease to 1250 m (2\% at 90\% credible interval) but that systematic differences between currently employed waveform models can be twice as large. Hence, it will be essential to ensure that systematic biases will not become dominant in inferences of the neutron-star equation of state when capitalizing on future developments.}, language = {en} } @misc{BullaCoughlinDhawanetal.2022, author = {Bulla, Mattia and Coughlin, Michael W. and Dhawan, Suhail and Dietrich, Tim}, title = {Multi-messenger constraints on the Hubble constant through combination of gravitational waves, gamma-ray bursts and kilonovae from neutron star mergers}, series = {Universe : open access journal}, volume = {8}, journal = {Universe : open access journal}, number = {5}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2218-1997}, doi = {10.3390/universe8050289}, pages = {21}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The simultaneous detection of gravitational waves and light from the binary neutron star merger GW170817 led to independent measurements of distance and redshift, providing a direct estimate of the Hubble constant H-0 that does not rely on a cosmic distance ladder, nor assumes a specific cosmological model. By using gravitational waves as "standard sirens", this approach holds promise to arbitrate the existing tension between the H-0 value inferred from the cosmic microwave background and those obtained from local measurements. However, the known degeneracy in the gravitational-wave analysis between distance and inclination of the source led to a H-0 value from GW170817 that was not precise enough to resolve the existing tension. In this review, we summarize recent works exploiting the viewing-angle dependence of the electromagnetic signal, namely the associated short gamma-ray burst and kilonova, to constrain the system inclination and improve on H-0. We outline the key ingredients of the different methods, summarize the results obtained in the aftermath of GW170817 and discuss the possible systematics introduced by each of these methods.}, language = {en} } @article{ShinCherstvyMetzler2015, author = {Shin, Jaeoh and Cherstvy, Andrey G. and Metzler, Ralf}, title = {Self-subdiffusion in solutions of star-shaped crowders: non-monotonic effects of inter-particle interactions}, series = {New journal of physics : the open-access journal for physics}, volume = {17}, journal = {New journal of physics : the open-access journal for physics}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1367-2630}, doi = {10.1088/1367-2630/17/11/113028}, pages = {12}, year = {2015}, abstract = {We examine by extensive computer simulations the self-diffusion of anisotropic star-like particles in crowded two-dimensional solutions. We investigate the implications of the area coverage fraction phi of the crowders and the crowder-crowder adhesion properties on the regime of transient anomalous diffusion. We systematically compute the mean squared displacement (MSD) of the particles, their time averaged MSD, and the effective diffusion coefficient. The diffusion is ergodic in the limit of long traces, such that the mean time averaged MSD converges towards the ensemble averaged MSD, and features a small residual amplitude spread of the time averaged MSD from individual trajectories. At intermediate time scales, we quantify the anomalous diffusion in the system. Also, we show that the translational-but not rotational-diffusivity of the particles Dis a nonmonotonic function of the attraction strength between them. Both diffusion coefficients decrease as the power law D(phi) similar to (1 - phi/phi*)(2 ... 2.4) with the area fraction phi occupied by the crowders and the critical value phi*. Our results might be applicable to rationalising the experimental observations of non-Brownian diffusion for a number of standard macromolecular crowders used in vitro to mimic the cytoplasmic conditions of living cells.}, language = {en} } @article{AndersKhalatyanQueirozetal.2022, author = {Anders, Friedrich and Khalatyan, Arman and Queiroz, Anna B. A. and Chiappini, Cristina and Ard{\`e}vol, Judith and Casamiquela, Laia and Figueras, Francesca and Jim{\´e}nez-Arranz, {\´O}scar and Jordi, Carme and Monguio, Maria and Romero-G{\´o}mez, Merce and Altamirano, Diego and Antoja, Teresa and Assaad, R. and Cantat-Gaudin, Tristan and Castro-Ginard, Alfred and Enke, Harry and Girardi, L{\´e}o and Guiglion, Guillaume and Khan, Saniya and Luri, Xavier and Miglio, Andrea and Minchev, Ivan and Ramos, Pau and Santiago, Basillio Xavier and Steinmetz, Matthias}, title = {Photo-astrometric distances, extinctions, and astrophysical parameters for Gaia EDR3 stars brighter than G=18.5}, series = {Astronomy and astrophysics}, volume = {658}, journal = {Astronomy and astrophysics}, publisher = {EDP Sciences}, address = {Les Ulis}, issn = {0004-6361}, doi = {10.1051/0004-6361/202142369}, pages = {27}, year = {2022}, abstract = {We present a catalogue of 362 million stellar parameters, distances, and extinctions derived from Gaia's Early Data Release (EDR3) cross-matched with the photometric catalogues of Pan-STARRS1, SkyMapper, 2MASS, and All WISE. The higher precision of the Gaia EDR3 data, combined with the broad wavelength coverage of the additional photometric surveys and the new stellar-density priors of the StarHorse code, allows us to substantially improve the accuracy and precision over previous photo-astrometric stellar-parameter estimates. At magnitude G = 14 (17), our typical precisions amount to 3\% (15\%) in distance, 0.13 mag (0.15 mag) in V-band extinction, and 140 K (180 K) in effective temperature. Our results are validated by comparisons with open clusters, as well as with asteroseismic and spectroscopic measurements, indicating systematic errors smaller than the nominal uncertainties for the vast majority of objects. We also provide distance- and extinction-corrected colour-magnitude diagrams, extinction maps, and extensive stellar density maps that reveal detailed substructures in the Milky Way and beyond. The new density maps now probe a much greater volume, extending to regions beyond the Galactic bar and to Local Group galaxies, with a larger total number density. We publish our results through an ADQL query interface (gaia . aip . de) as well as via tables containing approximations of the full posterior distributions. Our multi-wavelength approach and the deep magnitude limit render our results useful also beyond the next Gaia release, DR3.}, language = {en} } @article{KelesMallonnKitzmannetal.2022, author = {Keles, Engin and Mallonn, Matthias and Kitzmann, Daniel and Poppenh{\"a}ger, Katja and Hoeijmakers, H. Jens and Ilyin, Ilya and Alexoudi, Xanthippi and Carroll, Thorsten A. and Alvarado-Gomez, Julian and Ketzer, Laura and Bonomo, Aldo S. and Borsa, Francesco and Gaudi, B. Scott and Henning, Thomas and Malavolta, Luca and Molaverdikhani, Karan and Nascimbeni, Valerio and Patience, Jennifer and Pino, Lorenzo and Scandariato, Gaetano and Schlawin, Everett and Shkolnik, Evgenya and Sicilia, Daniela and Sozzetti, Alessandro and Foster, Mary G. and Veillet, Christian and Wang, Ji and Yan, Fei and Strassmeier, Klaus G.}, title = {The PEPSI exoplanet transit survey (PETS) I: Investigating the presence of a silicate atmosphere on the super-earth 55 Cnc e}, series = {Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}, volume = {513}, journal = {Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}, number = {1}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0035-8711}, doi = {10.1093/mnras/stac810}, pages = {1544 -- 1556}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The study of exoplanets and especially their atmospheres can reveal key insights on their evolution by identifying specific atmospheric species. For such atmospheric investigations, high-resolution transmission spectroscopy has shown great success, especially for Jupiter-type planets. Towards the atmospheric characterization of smaller planets, the super-Earth exoplanet 55 Cnc e is one of the most promising terrestrial exoplanets studied to date. Here, we present a high-resolution spectroscopic transit observation of this planet, acquired with the PEPSI instrument at the Large Binocular Telescope. Assuming the presence of Earth-like crust species on the surface of 55 Cnc e, from which a possible silicate-vapor atmosphere could have originated, we search in its transmission spectrum for absorption of various atomic and ionized species such as Fe , Fe (+), Ca , Ca (+), Mg, and K , among others. Not finding absorption for any of the investigated species, we are able to set absorption limits with a median value of 1.9 x R-P. In conclusion, we do not find evidence of a widely extended silicate envelope on this super-Earth reaching several planetary radii.}, language = {en} } @misc{CiemerRehmKurthsetal.2020, author = {Ciemer, Catrin and Rehm, Lars and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Donner, Reik Volker and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Boers, Niklas}, title = {An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {9}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-52586}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525863}, pages = {12}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.}, language = {en} } @article{WinkelmannLevermannMartinetal.2012, author = {Winkelmann, Ricarda and Levermann, Anders and Martin, Maria A. and Frieler, Katja}, title = {Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall}, series = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, volume = {492}, journal = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, number = {7428}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {0028-0836}, doi = {10.1038/nature11616}, pages = {239 -- +}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise(1), but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss(2,3) and ocean expansion(4). Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall(5), but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica(1,6) and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model(7) forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Khosravi2023, author = {Khosravi, Sara}, title = {The effect of new turbulence parameterizations for the stable surface layer on simulations of the Arctic climate}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-64352}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-643520}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {XIV, 119}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Arctic climate change is marked by intensified warming compared to global trends and a significant reduction in Arctic sea ice which can intricately influence mid-latitude atmospheric circulation through tropo- and stratospheric pathways. Achieving accurate simulations of current and future climate demands a realistic representation of Arctic climate processes in numerical climate models, which remains challenging. Model deficiencies in replicating observed Arctic climate processes often arise due to inadequacies in representing turbulent boundary layer interactions that determine the interactions between the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. Many current climate models rely on parameterizations developed for mid-latitude conditions to handle Arctic turbulent boundary layer processes. This thesis focuses on modified representation of the Arctic atmospheric processes and understanding their resulting impact on large-scale mid-latitude atmospheric circulation within climate models. The improved turbulence parameterizations, recently developed based on Arctic measurements, were implemented in the global atmospheric circulation model ECHAM6. This involved modifying the stability functions over sea ice and ocean for stable stratification and changing the roughness length over sea ice for all stratification conditions. Comprehensive analyses are conducted to assess the impacts of these modifications on ECHAM6's simulations of the Arctic boundary layer, overall atmospheric circulation, and the dynamical pathways between the Arctic and mid-latitudes. Through a step-wise implementation of the mentioned parameterizations into ECHAM6, a series of sensitivity experiments revealed that the combined impacts of the reduced roughness length and the modified stability functions are non-linear. Nevertheless, it is evident that both modifications consistently lead to a general decrease in the heat transfer coefficient, being in close agreement with the observations. Additionally, compared to the reference observations, the ECHAM6 model falls short in accurately representing unstable and strongly stable conditions. The less frequent occurrence of strong stability restricts the influence of the modified stability functions by reducing the affected sample size. However, when focusing solely on the specific instances of a strongly stable atmosphere, the sensible heat flux approaches near-zero values, which is in line with the observations. Models employing commonly used surface turbulence parameterizations were shown to have difficulties replicating the near-zero sensible heat flux in strongly stable stratification. I also found that these limited changes in surface layer turbulence parameterizations have a statistically significant impact on the temperature and wind patterns across multiple pressure levels, including the stratosphere, in both the Arctic and mid-latitudes. These significant signals vary in strength, extent, and direction depending on the specific month or year, indicating a strong reliance on the background state. Furthermore, this research investigates how the modified surface turbulence parameterizations may influence the response of both stratospheric and tropospheric circulation to Arctic sea ice loss. The most suitable parameterizations for accurately representing Arctic boundary layer turbulence were identified from the sensitivity experiments. Subsequently, the model's response to sea ice loss is evaluated through extended ECHAM6 simulations with different prescribed sea ice conditions. The simulation with adjusted surface turbulence parameterizations better reproduced the observed Arctic tropospheric warming in vertical extent, demonstrating improved alignment with the reanalysis data. Additionally, unlike the control experiments, this simulation successfully reproduced specific circulation patterns linked to the stratospheric pathway for Arctic-mid-latitude linkages. Specifically, an increased occurrence of the Scandinavian-Ural blocking regime (negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation) in early (late) winter is observed. Overall, it can be inferred that improving turbulence parameterizations at the surface layer can improve the ECHAM6's response to sea ice loss.}, language = {en} } @article{ZhelavskayaAseevShprits2021, author = {Zhelavskaya, Irina and Aseev, Nikita and Shprits, Yuri}, title = {A combined neural network- and physics-based approach for modeling plasmasphere dynamics}, series = {JGR / AGU, American Geographical Union. Space Physics}, volume = {126}, journal = {JGR / AGU, American Geographical Union. Space Physics}, number = {3}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken, NJ}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2020JA028077}, pages = {30}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Abstract In recent years, feedforward neural networks (NNs) have been successfully applied to reconstruct global plasmasphere dynamics in the equatorial plane. These neural network-based models capture the large-scale dynamics of the plasmasphere, such as plume formation and erosion of the plasmasphere on the nightside. However, their performance depends strongly on the availability of training data. When the data coverage is limited or non-existent, as occurs during geomagnetic storms, the performance of NNs significantly decreases, as networks inherently cannot learn from the limited number of examples. This limitation can be overcome by employing physics-based modeling during strong geomagnetic storms. Physics-based models show a stable performance during periods of disturbed geomagnetic activity if they are correctly initialized and configured. In this study, we illustrate how to combine the neural network- and physics-based models of the plasmasphere in an optimal way by using data assimilation. The proposed approach utilizes advantages of both neural network- and physics-based modeling and produces global plasma density reconstructions for both quiet and disturbed geomagnetic activity, including extreme geomagnetic storms. We validate the models quantitatively by comparing their output to the in-situ density measurements from RBSP-A for an 18-month out-of-sample period from June 30, 2016 to January 01, 2018 and computing performance metrics. To validate the global density reconstructions qualitatively, we compare them to the IMAGE EUV images of the He+ particle distribution in the Earth's plasmasphere for a number of events in the past, including the Halloween storm in 2003.}, language = {en} } @article{RosenblumPikovsky2023, author = {Rosenblum, Michael and Pikovsky, Arkady}, title = {Inferring connectivity of an oscillatory network via the phase dynamics reconstruction}, series = {Frontiers in network physiology}, volume = {3}, journal = {Frontiers in network physiology}, publisher = {Frontiers Media}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {2674-0109}, doi = {10.3389/fnetp.2023.1298228}, pages = {10}, year = {2023}, abstract = {We review an approach for reconstructing oscillatory networks' undirected and directed connectivity from data. The technique relies on inferring the phase dynamics model. The central assumption is that we observe the outputs of all network nodes. We distinguish between two cases. In the first one, the observed signals represent smooth oscillations, while in the second one, the data are pulse-like and can be viewed as point processes. For the first case, we discuss estimating the true phase from a scalar signal, exploiting the protophase-to-phase transformation. With the phases at hand, pairwise and triplet synchronization indices can characterize the undirected connectivity. Next, we demonstrate how to infer the general form of the coupling functions for two or three oscillators and how to use these functions to quantify the directional links. We proceed with a different treatment of networks with more than three nodes. We discuss the difference between the structural and effective phase connectivity that emerges due to high-order terms in the coupling functions. For the second case of point-process data, we use the instants of spikes to infer the phase dynamics model in the Winfree form directly. This way, we obtain the network's coupling matrix in the first approximation in the coupling strength.}, language = {en} } @article{CestnikMauRosenblum2022, author = {Cestnik, Rok and Mau, Erik T. K. and Rosenblum, Michael}, title = {Inferring oscillator's phase and amplitude response from a scalar signal exploiting test stimulation}, series = {New journal of physics : the open-access journal for physics}, volume = {24}, journal = {New journal of physics : the open-access journal for physics}, number = {12}, publisher = {Dt. Physikalische Ges., IOP}, address = {Bad Honnef, London}, issn = {1367-2630}, doi = {10.1088/1367-2630/aca70a}, pages = {27}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The phase sensitivity curve or phase response curve (PRC) quantifies the oscillator's reaction to stimulation at a specific phase and is a primary characteristic of a self-sustained oscillatory unit. Knowledge of this curve yields a phase dynamics description of the oscillator for arbitrary weak forcing. Similar, though much less studied characteristic, is the amplitude response that can be defined either using an ad hoc approach to amplitude estimation or via the isostable variables. Here, we discuss the problem of the phase and amplitude response inference from observations using test stimulation. Although PRC determination for noise-free neuronal-like oscillators perturbed by narrow pulses is a well-known task, the general case remains a challenging problem. Even more challenging is the inference of the amplitude response. This characteristic is crucial, e.g. for controlling the amplitude of the collective mode in a network of interacting units-a task relevant to neuroscience. Here, we compare the performance of different techniques suitable for inferring the phase and amplitude response, particularly with application to macroscopic oscillators. We suggest improvements to these techniques, e.g. demonstrating how to obtain the PRC in case of stimuli of arbitrary shape. Our main result is a novel technique denoted by IPID-1, based on the direct reconstruction of the Winfree equation and the analogous first-order equation for isostable dynamics. The technique works for signals with or without well-pronounced marker events and pulses of arbitrary shape; in particular, we consider charge-balanced pulses typical in neuroscience applications. Moreover, this technique is superior for noisy and high-dimensional systems. Additionally, we describe an error measure that can be computed solely from data and complements any inference technique.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Damseaux2024, author = {Damseaux, Adrien}, title = {Improving permafrost dynamics in land surface models: insights from dual sensitivity experiments}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-63945}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-639450}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {xiii, 143}, year = {2024}, abstract = {The thawing of permafrost and the subsequent release of greenhouse gases constitute one of the most significant and uncertain positive feedback loops in the context of climate change, making predictions regarding changes in permafrost coverage of paramount importance. To address these critical questions, climate scientists have developed Land Surface Models (LSMs) that encompass a multitude of physical soil processes. This thesis is committed to advancing our understanding and refining precise representations of permafrost dynamics within LSMs, with a specific focus on the accurate modeling of heat fluxes, an essential component for simulating permafrost physics. The first research question overviews fundamental model prerequisites for the representation of permafrost soils within land surface modeling. It includes a first-of-its-kind comparison between LSMs in CMIP6 to reveal their differences and shortcomings in key permafrost physics parameters. Overall, each of these LSMs represents a unique approach to simulating soil processes and their interactions with the climate system. Choosing the most appropriate model for a particular application depends on factors such as the spatial and temporal scale of the simulation, the specific research question, and available computational resources. The second research question evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Community Land Model (CLM5) in simulating Arctic permafrost regions. Our approach overcomes traditional evaluation limitations by individually addressing depth, seasonality, and regional variations, providing a comprehensive assessment of permafrost and soil temperature dynamics. I compare CLM5's results with three extensive datasets: (1) soil temperatures from 295 borehole stations, (2) active layer thickness (ALT) data from the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Network (CALM), and (3) soil temperatures, ALT, and permafrost extent from the ESA Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI). The results show that CLM5 aligns well with ESA-CCI and CALM for permafrost extent and ALT but reveals a significant global cold temperature bias, notably over Siberia. These results echo a persistent challenge identified in numerous studies: the existence of a systematic 'cold bias' in soil temperature over permafrost regions. To address this challenge, the following research questions propose dual sensitivity experiments. The third research question represents the first study to apply a Plant Functional Type (PFT)-based approach to derive soil texture and soil organic matter (SOM), departing from the conventional use of coarse-resolution global data in LSMs. This novel method results in a more uniform distribution of soil organic matter density (OMD) across the domain, characterized by reduced OMD values in most regions. However, changes in soil texture exhibit a more intricate spatial pattern. Comparing the results to observations reveals a significant reduction in the cold bias observed in the control run. This method shows noticeable improvements in permafrost extent, but at the cost of an overestimation in ALT. These findings emphasize the model's high sensitivity to variations in soil texture and SOM content, highlighting the crucial role of soil composition in governing heat transfer processes and shaping the seasonal variation of soil temperatures in permafrost regions. Expanding upon a site experiment conducted in Trail Valley Creek by \citet{dutch_impact_2022}, the fourth research question extends the application of the snow scheme proposed by \citet{sturm_thermal_1997} to cover the entire Arctic domain. By employing a snow scheme better suited to the snow density profile observed over permafrost regions, this thesis seeks to assess its influence on simulated soil temperatures. Comparing this method to observational datasets reveals a significant reduction in the cold bias that was present in the control run. In most regions, the Sturm run exhibits a substantial decrease in the cold bias. However, there is a distinctive overshoot with a warm bias observed in mountainous areas. The Sturm experiment effectively addressed the overestimation of permafrost extent in the control run, albeit resulting in a substantial reduction in permafrost extent over mountainous areas. ALT results remain relatively consistent compared to the control run. These outcomes align with our initial hypothesis, which anticipated that the reduced snow insulation in the Sturm run would lead to higher winter soil temperatures and a more accurate representation of permafrost physics. In summary, this thesis demonstrates significant advancements in understanding permafrost dynamics and its integration into LSMs. It has meticulously unraveled the intricacies involved in the interplay between heat transfer, soil properties, and snow dynamics in permafrost regions. These insights offer novel perspectives on model representation and performance.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Born2021, author = {Born, Artur}, title = {Electronic structure, quasi-particle interaction and relaxation in 3d-elements from X-ray spectroscopy}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {123}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Any physical system can be described on the level of interacting particles, thus it is of fundamental importance to improve the scientific understanding of interacting many-body systems. This thesis experimentally addresses specific quasi-particle interactions, namely interactions be- tween electrons and between electrons and phonons. It describes the consequential effects of those processes on the electronic structure and the core-hole relaxation pathways in 3d metals. Despite the great amount of experimental and theoretical studies of these interactions and their impact on the behavior of solid-state matter, there are still open questions concerning the cor- responding physical, chemical and mechanical properties of solid-state matter. Especially, the study of 3d metals and their compounds is a great experimental challenge, since those exhibit a variety of spectral features originating from many-body effects such as multiplet splitting, shake up/off satellites, vibrationally excited states or more complex effects like superconductivity and ultrafast demagnetization. In X-ray spectroscopy, these effects often produce overlapping fea- tures, complicating the analysis and limiting the understanding. In this thesis, to overcome the limitations set by conventional X-ray spectroscopy, two different experimental approaches were successfully refined, namely Auger electron photoelectron coincidence spectroscopy (APECS) and temperature-dependent X-ray emission spectroscopy (tXES), which enabled the separation of different core-hole relaxation pathways and the isolation of the impact of specific many-body interactions in the experimental spectra. APECS was utilized at the new Coincidence electron spectroscopy for chemical analysis (Co- ESCA) station at BESSY II to study the core-hole decay and electron-correlation effects in single- crystal Ni, Cu and Co. The observation of photoelectrons in coincidence with Auger electrons allows for the separation of the initial and final state effects in the Auger electron spectra. The results show that a Cu LV V Auger spectrum can be represented by broadened atomic multiplets confirming the localized nature of the intermediate core-hole states. In contrast, the Co LV V Auger spectrum is band-like and can be represented by the self-convolution of the valence band. Ni behaves mixed, localized and itinerant. Thus, the Ni Auger spectrum can only be represented by a mixture of atomic multiplet peaks and the self-convoluted valence band. In the case of Ni, the LV V Auger electrons in coincidence with the 6 eV satellite photoelectrons were also stud- ied. Utilizing the core-hole clock method, the lifetime of the localized double-hole intermediate 2 p53d9 states of 1.8 fs could be determined. However, a fraction of these states delocalizes before the Auger decay contributing to the main peak. A similar delocalization was observed for the double-hole states produced by the L2L3M4,5 Coster-Kronig process. Additionally, the influence of surface oxidation on the Ni(111) 3p levels was studied with APECS. The Ni 3p PES spectrum is broad and featureless, due to overlapping many-body effects and gives little chance for exact analysis using conventional photoelectron spectroscopy. Utilizing APECS or precisely the final state selectivity of the method, the spectral width of the 3p levels could be narrowed and their positions and the spin-orbit splitting were determined. Moreover, due to the surface sensitivity of the method, the chemically shifted 3p photoelectron peaks originating from the oxidized surface and the bulk Ni were disentangled. For the study of the atomic electron-phonon spin-flip scattering in 3d metals as a spin-relaxation channel, the tXES method at the SolidFlexRIXS station was developed. The atomic spin-flip scat- tering was studied in single-crystal Ni, Cu, Co and in FeNi alloys, which show considerable dif- ferences in their behavior. The scattering rate in Ni increases with temperature, whereas the rate in Cu and Co remains constant within the measured temperature range up to 1000 K. In FeNi alloys, our results reveal that the spin-flip scattering is restricted by sublattice exchange energies J. The electron-phonon scattering driven spin-flips only appear in the case where the thermal energy ex- ceeds the exchange energy kT > J. This thresholding is an important microscopic process for the description of the sublattice dynamics in alloys, but as shown also relevant for elemental magnetic systems. Overall, the results strongly indicate that the spin-flip probability is correlated with the exchange energy, which might become an important parameter in the ultrafast demagnetization debate. Taken together, the applied experimental approaches allowed to study complex many-body effects in 3d metals. The results show that utilizing APECS enabled the distinction and clear assignment of otherwise overlapping features in AES or PES spectra of Ni, Cu, Co and NiO. This is of fundamental importance for the basic understanding of photoionization and core-hole decay processes but also for the chemical analysis in applied science. The measurement of the atomic electron-phonon spin-flip scattering rate utilizing tXES shows that the electron-phonon spin-flip scattering is a relevant atomic process for the macroscopic demagnetization process. Additionally, a temperature-dependent thresholding mechanism was discovered, which introduces an important dynamic factor into the electron-phonon spin-flip model.}, language = {en} } @article{BernardiBerdjaDaniGuzmanetal.2021, author = {Bernardi, Rafael L. and Berdja, Amokrane and Dani Guzman, Christian and Torres-Torriti, Miguel and Roth, Martin M.}, title = {Restoration of images with a spatially varying PSF of the T80-S telescope optical model using neural networks}, series = {Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}, volume = {510}, journal = {Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}, number = {3}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0035-8711}, doi = {10.1093/mnras/stab3400}, pages = {4284 -- 4294}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Most image restoration methods in astronomy rely upon probabilistic tools that infer the best solution for a deconvolution problem. They achieve good performances when the point spread function (PSF) is spatially invariant in the image plane. However, this condition is not always satisfied in real optical systems. We propose a new method for the restoration of images affected by static and anisotropic aberrations using Deep Neural Networks that can be directly applied to sky images. The network is trained using simulated sky images corresponding to the T80-S Telescope optical model, a 80-cm survey imager at Cerro Tololo (Chile), which are synthesized using a Zernike polynomial representation of the optical system. Once trained, the network can be used directly on sky images, outputting a corrected version of the image that has a constant and known PSF across its field of view. The method is to be tested on the T80-S Telescope. We present the method and results on synthetic data.}, language = {en} }