@article{FosterPoppenhaegerIlićPetkovićetal.2022, author = {Foster, Mary Grace and Poppenh{\"a}ger, Katja and Ilić Petković, Nikoleta and Schwope, Axel}, title = {Exoplanet X-ray irradiation and evaporation rates with eROSITA}, series = {Astronomy and astrophysics : an international weekly journal}, volume = {661}, journal = {Astronomy and astrophysics : an international weekly journal}, publisher = {EDP Sciences}, address = {Les Ulis}, issn = {0004-6361}, doi = {10.1051/0004-6361/202141097}, pages = {11}, year = {2022}, abstract = {High-energy irradiation is a driver for atmospheric evaporation and mass loss in exoplanets. This work is based on data from eROSITA, the soft X-ray instrument on board the Spectrum Roentgen Gamma mission, as well as on archival data from other missions. We aim to characterise the high-energy environment of known exoplanets and estimate their mass-loss rates. We use X-ray source catalogues from eROSITA, XMM-Newton, Chandra, and ROSAT to derive X-ray luminosities of exoplanet host stars in the 0.2-2 keV energy band with an underlying coronal, that is, optically thin thermal spectrum. We present a catalogue of stellar X-ray and EUV luminosities, exoplanetary X-ray and EUV irradiation fluxes, and estimated mass-loss rates for a total of 287 exoplanets, 96 of which are characterised for the first time based on new eROSITA detections. We identify 14 first-time X-ray detections of transiting exoplanets that are subject to irradiation levels known to cause observable evaporation signatures in other exoplanets. This makes them suitable targets for follow-up observations.}, language = {en} } @article{YeZhangWarbyetal.2022, author = {Ye, Fangyuan and Zhang, Shuo and Warby, Jonathan and Wu, Jiawei and Gutierrez-Partida, Emilio and Lang, Felix and Shah, Sahil and Saglamkaya, Elifnaz and Sun, Bowen and Zu, Fengshuo and Shoai, Safa and Wang, Haifeng and Stiller, Burkhard and Neher, Dieter and Zhu, Wei-Hong and Stolterfoht, Martin and Wu, Yongzhen}, title = {Overcoming C₆₀-induced interfacial recombination in inverted perovskite solar cells by electron-transporting carborane}, series = {Nature Communications}, volume = {13}, journal = {Nature Communications}, number = {1}, publisher = {Springer Nature}, address = {London}, issn = {2041-1723}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-022-34203-x}, pages = {12}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Inverted perovskite solar cells still suffer from significant non-radiative recombination losses at the perovskite surface and across the perovskite/C₆₀ interface, limiting the future development of perovskite-based single- and multi-junction photovoltaics. Therefore, more effective inter- or transport layers are urgently required. To tackle these recombination losses, we introduce ortho-carborane as an interlayer material that has a spherical molecular structure and a three-dimensional aromaticity. Based on a variety of experimental techniques, we show that ortho-carborane decorated with phenylamino groups effectively passivates the perovskite surface and essentially eliminates the non-radiative recombination loss across the perovskite/C₆₀ interface with high thermal stability. We further demonstrate the potential of carborane as an electron transport material, facilitating electron extraction while blocking holes from the interface. The resulting inverted perovskite solar cells deliver a power conversion efficiency of over 23\% with a low non-radiative voltage loss of 110 mV, and retain >97\% of the initial efficiency after 400 h of maximum power point tracking. Overall, the designed carborane based interlayer simultaneously enables passivation, electron-transport and hole-blocking and paves the way toward more efficient and stable perovskite solar cells.}, language = {en} } @article{Omel'chenkoOcampoEspindolaKiss2021, author = {Omel'chenko, Oleh and Ocampo-Espindola, Jorge Luis and Kiss, Istv{\´a}n Z.}, title = {Asymmetry-induced isolated fully synchronized state in coupled oscillator populations}, series = {Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics}, volume = {104}, journal = {Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics}, number = {2}, publisher = {American Physical Society}, address = {Melville, NY}, issn = {2470-0045}, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevE.104.L022202}, pages = {6}, year = {2021}, abstract = {A symmetry-breaking mechanism is investigated that creates bistability between fully and partially synchronized states in oscillator networks. Two populations of oscillators with unimodal frequency distribution and different amplitudes, in the presence of weak global coupling, are shown to simplify to a modular network with asymmetrical coupling. With increasing the coupling strength, a synchronization transition is observed with an isolated fully synchronized state. The results are interpreted theoretically in the thermodynamic limit and confirmed in experiments with chemical oscillators.}, language = {en} } @article{MeyerPohlPetrovetal.2023, author = {Meyer, Dominique M.-A. and Pohl, Martin and Petrov, Miroslav and Egberts, Kathrin}, title = {Mixing of materials in magnetized core-collapse supernova remnants}, series = {Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}, volume = {521}, journal = {Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}, number = {4}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0035-8711}, doi = {10.1093/mnras/stad906}, pages = {5354 -- 5371}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Core-collapse supernova remnants are structures of the interstellar medium (ISM) left behind the explosive death of most massive stars ( ?40 M-?). Since they result in the expansion of the supernova shock wave into the gaseous environment shaped by the star's wind history, their morphology constitutes an insight into the past evolution of their progenitor star. Particularly, fast-mo ving massiv e stars can produce asymmetric core-collapse superno va remnants. We inv estigate the mixing of materials in core-collapse supernova remnants generated by a moving massive 35 M-? star, in a magnetized ISM. Stellar rotation and the wind magnetic field are time-dependently included into the models which follow the entire evolution of the stellar surroundings from the zero-age main-sequence to 80 kyr after the supernova explosion. It is found that very little main-sequence material is present in remnants from moving stars, that the Wolf-Rayet wind mixes very efficiently within the 10 kyr after the explosion, while the red supergiant material is still unmixed by 30 per cent within 50 kyr after the supernova. Our results indicate that the faster the stellar motion, the more complex the internal organization of the supernova remnant and the more ef fecti ve the mixing of ejecta therein. In contrast, the mixing of stellar wind material is only weakly affected by progenitor motion, if at all.}, language = {en} } @article{DavidsenKwiatekCharalampidouetal.2017, author = {Davidsen, Joern and Kwiatek, Grzegorz and Charalampidou, Elli-Maria and Goebel, Thomas H. W. and Stanchits, Sergei and Rueck, Marc and Dresen, Georg}, title = {Triggering Processes in Rock Fracture}, series = {Physical review letters}, volume = {119}, journal = {Physical review letters}, publisher = {American Physical Society}, address = {College Park}, issn = {0031-9007}, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevLett.119.068501}, pages = {8}, year = {2017}, abstract = {We study triggering processes in triaxial compression experiments under a constant displacement rate on sandstone and granite samples using spatially located acoustic emission events and their focal mechanisms. We present strong evidence that event-event triggering plays an important role in the presence of large-scale or macrocopic imperfections, while such triggering is basically absent if no significant imperfections are present. In the former case, we recover all established empirical relations of aftershock seismicity including the Gutenberg-Richter relation, a modified version of the Omori-Utsu relation and the productivity relation-despite the fact that the activity is dominated by compaction-type events and triggering cascades have a swarmlike topology. For the Gutenberg-Richter relations, we find that the b value is smaller for triggered events compared to background events. Moreover, we show that triggered acoustic emission events have a focal mechanism much more similar to their associated trigger than expected by chance.}, language = {en} } @article{KretzschmarAshbyFearonetal.2022, author = {Kretzschmar, Mirjam E. and Ashby, Ben and Fearon, Elizabeth and Overton, Christopher E. and Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina and Pellis, Lorenzo and Quaife, Matthew and Rozhnova, Ganna and Scarabel, Francesca and Stage, Helena B. and Swallow, Ben and Thompson, Robin N. and Tildesley, Michael J. and Villela, Daniel Campos}, title = {Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics}, series = {Epidemics}, volume = {38}, journal = {Epidemics}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1755-4365}, doi = {10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100546}, pages = {13}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has been widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, lessons learned from this and previous epidemics are used to highlight the challenges for future pandemic control. We consider the availability and use of data, as well as the need for correct parameterisation and calibration for different model frameworks. We discuss challenges that arise in describing and distinguishing between different interventions, within different modelling structures, and allowing both within and between host dynamics. We also highlight challenges in modelling the health economic and political aspects of interventions. Given the diversity of these challenges, a broad variety of interdisciplinary expertise is needed to address them, combining mathematical knowledge with biological and social insights, and including health economics and communication skills. Addressing these challenges for the future requires strong cross disciplinary collaboration together with close communication between scientists and policy makers.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Damseaux2024, author = {Damseaux, Adrien}, title = {Improving permafrost dynamics in land surface models: insights from dual sensitivity experiments}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-63945}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-639450}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {xiii, 143}, year = {2024}, abstract = {The thawing of permafrost and the subsequent release of greenhouse gases constitute one of the most significant and uncertain positive feedback loops in the context of climate change, making predictions regarding changes in permafrost coverage of paramount importance. To address these critical questions, climate scientists have developed Land Surface Models (LSMs) that encompass a multitude of physical soil processes. This thesis is committed to advancing our understanding and refining precise representations of permafrost dynamics within LSMs, with a specific focus on the accurate modeling of heat fluxes, an essential component for simulating permafrost physics. The first research question overviews fundamental model prerequisites for the representation of permafrost soils within land surface modeling. It includes a first-of-its-kind comparison between LSMs in CMIP6 to reveal their differences and shortcomings in key permafrost physics parameters. Overall, each of these LSMs represents a unique approach to simulating soil processes and their interactions with the climate system. Choosing the most appropriate model for a particular application depends on factors such as the spatial and temporal scale of the simulation, the specific research question, and available computational resources. The second research question evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Community Land Model (CLM5) in simulating Arctic permafrost regions. Our approach overcomes traditional evaluation limitations by individually addressing depth, seasonality, and regional variations, providing a comprehensive assessment of permafrost and soil temperature dynamics. I compare CLM5's results with three extensive datasets: (1) soil temperatures from 295 borehole stations, (2) active layer thickness (ALT) data from the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Network (CALM), and (3) soil temperatures, ALT, and permafrost extent from the ESA Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI). The results show that CLM5 aligns well with ESA-CCI and CALM for permafrost extent and ALT but reveals a significant global cold temperature bias, notably over Siberia. These results echo a persistent challenge identified in numerous studies: the existence of a systematic 'cold bias' in soil temperature over permafrost regions. To address this challenge, the following research questions propose dual sensitivity experiments. The third research question represents the first study to apply a Plant Functional Type (PFT)-based approach to derive soil texture and soil organic matter (SOM), departing from the conventional use of coarse-resolution global data in LSMs. This novel method results in a more uniform distribution of soil organic matter density (OMD) across the domain, characterized by reduced OMD values in most regions. However, changes in soil texture exhibit a more intricate spatial pattern. Comparing the results to observations reveals a significant reduction in the cold bias observed in the control run. This method shows noticeable improvements in permafrost extent, but at the cost of an overestimation in ALT. These findings emphasize the model's high sensitivity to variations in soil texture and SOM content, highlighting the crucial role of soil composition in governing heat transfer processes and shaping the seasonal variation of soil temperatures in permafrost regions. Expanding upon a site experiment conducted in Trail Valley Creek by \citet{dutch_impact_2022}, the fourth research question extends the application of the snow scheme proposed by \citet{sturm_thermal_1997} to cover the entire Arctic domain. By employing a snow scheme better suited to the snow density profile observed over permafrost regions, this thesis seeks to assess its influence on simulated soil temperatures. Comparing this method to observational datasets reveals a significant reduction in the cold bias that was present in the control run. In most regions, the Sturm run exhibits a substantial decrease in the cold bias. However, there is a distinctive overshoot with a warm bias observed in mountainous areas. The Sturm experiment effectively addressed the overestimation of permafrost extent in the control run, albeit resulting in a substantial reduction in permafrost extent over mountainous areas. ALT results remain relatively consistent compared to the control run. These outcomes align with our initial hypothesis, which anticipated that the reduced snow insulation in the Sturm run would lead to higher winter soil temperatures and a more accurate representation of permafrost physics. In summary, this thesis demonstrates significant advancements in understanding permafrost dynamics and its integration into LSMs. It has meticulously unraveled the intricacies involved in the interplay between heat transfer, soil properties, and snow dynamics in permafrost regions. These insights offer novel perspectives on model representation and performance.}, language = {en} } @article{HuthPangTewsetal.2022, author = {Huth, Sabrina and Pang, Peter Tsun Ho and Tews, Ingo and Dietrich, Tim and Le F{\`e}vre, Arnaud and Schwenk, Achim and Trautmann, Wolfgang and Agarwal, Kshitij and Bulla, Mattia and Coughlin, Michael W. and Van den Broeck, Chris}, title = {Constraining neutron-star matter with microscopic and macroscopic collisions}, series = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, volume = {606}, journal = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, number = {7913}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London [u.a.]}, issn = {0028-0836}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-022-04750-w}, pages = {276 -- 295}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Interpreting high-energy, astrophysical phenomena, such as supernova explosions or neutron-star collisions, requires a robust understanding of matter at supranuclear densities. However, our knowledge about dense matter explored in the cores of neutron stars remains limited. Fortunately, dense matter is not probed only in astrophysical observations, but also in terrestrial heavy-ion collision experiments. Here we use Bayesian inference to combine data from astrophysical multi-messenger observations of neutron stars(1-9) and from heavy-ion collisions of gold nuclei at relativistic energies(10,11) with microscopic nuclear theory calculations(12-17) to improve our understanding of dense matter. We find that the inclusion of heavy-ion collision data indicates an increase in the pressure in dense matter relative to previous analyses, shifting neutron-star radii towards larger values, consistent with recent observations by the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer mission(5-8,18). Our findings show that constraints from heavy-ion collision experiments show a remarkable consistency with multi-messenger observations and provide complementary information on nuclear matter at intermediate densities. This work combines nuclear theory, nuclear experiment and astrophysical observations, and shows how joint analyses can shed light on the properties of neutron-rich supranuclear matter over the density range probed in neutron stars.}, language = {en} } @article{PangDietrichTewsetal.2020, author = {Pang, Peter Tsun Ho and Dietrich, Tim and Tews, Ingo and Van Den Broeck, Chris}, title = {Parameter estimation for strong phase transitions in supranuclear matter using gravitational-wave astronomy}, series = {Physical review research}, volume = {2}, journal = {Physical review research}, number = {3}, publisher = {American Physical Society}, address = {College Park}, issn = {2643-1564}, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevResearch.2.033514}, pages = {17}, year = {2020}, abstract = {At supranuclear densities, explored in the core of neutron stars, a strong phase transition from hadronic matter to more exotic forms of matter might be present. To test this hypothesis, binary neutron-star mergers offer a unique possibility to probe matter at densities that we cannot create in any existing terrestrial experiment. In this work, we show that, if present, strong phase transitions can have a measurable imprint on the binary neutron-star coalescence and the emitted gravitational-wave signal. We construct a new parametrization of the supranuclear equation of state that allows us to test for the existence of a strong phase transition and extract its characteristic properties purely from the gravitational-wave signal of the inspiraling neutron stars. We test our approach using a Bayesian inference study simulating 600 signals with three different equations of state and find that for current gravitational-wave detector networks already 12 events might be sufficient to verify the presence of a strong phase transition. Finally, we use our methodology to analyze GW170817 and GW190425 but do not find any indication that a strong phase transition is present at densities probed during the inspiral.}, language = {en} } @article{KunertPangTewsetal.2022, author = {Kunert, Nina and Pang, Peter T. H. and Tews, Ingo and Coughlin, Michael W. and Dietrich, Tim}, title = {Quantifying modeling uncertainties when combining multiple gravitational-wave detections from binary neutron star sources}, series = {Physical review D}, volume = {105}, journal = {Physical review D}, number = {6}, publisher = {American Physical Society}, address = {College Park}, issn = {2470-0010}, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevD.105.L061301}, pages = {7}, year = {2022}, abstract = {With the increasing sensitivity of gravitational-wave detectors, we expect to observe multiple binary neutron-star systems through gravitational waves in the near future. The combined analysis of these gravitational-wave signals offers the possibility to constrain the neutron-star radius and the equation of state of dense nuclear matter with unprecedented accuracy. However, it is crucial to ensure that uncertainties inherent in the gravitational-wave models will not lead to systematic biases when information from multiple detections is combined. To quantify waveform systematics, we perform an extensive simulation campaign of binary neutron-star sources and analyze them with a set of four different waveform models. For our analysis with 38 simulations, we find that statistical uncertainties in the neutron-star radius decrease to 1250 m (2\% at 90\% credible interval) but that systematic differences between currently employed waveform models can be twice as large. Hence, it will be essential to ensure that systematic biases will not become dominant in inferences of the neutron-star equation of state when capitalizing on future developments.}, language = {en} } @misc{BullaCoughlinDhawanetal.2022, author = {Bulla, Mattia and Coughlin, Michael W. and Dhawan, Suhail and Dietrich, Tim}, title = {Multi-messenger constraints on the Hubble constant through combination of gravitational waves, gamma-ray bursts and kilonovae from neutron star mergers}, series = {Universe : open access journal}, volume = {8}, journal = {Universe : open access journal}, number = {5}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2218-1997}, doi = {10.3390/universe8050289}, pages = {21}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The simultaneous detection of gravitational waves and light from the binary neutron star merger GW170817 led to independent measurements of distance and redshift, providing a direct estimate of the Hubble constant H-0 that does not rely on a cosmic distance ladder, nor assumes a specific cosmological model. By using gravitational waves as "standard sirens", this approach holds promise to arbitrate the existing tension between the H-0 value inferred from the cosmic microwave background and those obtained from local measurements. However, the known degeneracy in the gravitational-wave analysis between distance and inclination of the source led to a H-0 value from GW170817 that was not precise enough to resolve the existing tension. In this review, we summarize recent works exploiting the viewing-angle dependence of the electromagnetic signal, namely the associated short gamma-ray burst and kilonova, to constrain the system inclination and improve on H-0. We outline the key ingredients of the different methods, summarize the results obtained in the aftermath of GW170817 and discuss the possible systematics introduced by each of these methods.}, language = {en} } @article{AndersKhalatyanQueirozetal.2022, author = {Anders, Friedrich and Khalatyan, Arman and Queiroz, Anna B. A. and Chiappini, Cristina and Ard{\`e}vol, Judith and Casamiquela, Laia and Figueras, Francesca and Jim{\´e}nez-Arranz, {\´O}scar and Jordi, Carme and Monguio, Maria and Romero-G{\´o}mez, Merce and Altamirano, Diego and Antoja, Teresa and Assaad, R. and Cantat-Gaudin, Tristan and Castro-Ginard, Alfred and Enke, Harry and Girardi, L{\´e}o and Guiglion, Guillaume and Khan, Saniya and Luri, Xavier and Miglio, Andrea and Minchev, Ivan and Ramos, Pau and Santiago, Basillio Xavier and Steinmetz, Matthias}, title = {Photo-astrometric distances, extinctions, and astrophysical parameters for Gaia EDR3 stars brighter than G=18.5}, series = {Astronomy and astrophysics}, volume = {658}, journal = {Astronomy and astrophysics}, publisher = {EDP Sciences}, address = {Les Ulis}, issn = {0004-6361}, doi = {10.1051/0004-6361/202142369}, pages = {27}, year = {2022}, abstract = {We present a catalogue of 362 million stellar parameters, distances, and extinctions derived from Gaia's Early Data Release (EDR3) cross-matched with the photometric catalogues of Pan-STARRS1, SkyMapper, 2MASS, and All WISE. The higher precision of the Gaia EDR3 data, combined with the broad wavelength coverage of the additional photometric surveys and the new stellar-density priors of the StarHorse code, allows us to substantially improve the accuracy and precision over previous photo-astrometric stellar-parameter estimates. At magnitude G = 14 (17), our typical precisions amount to 3\% (15\%) in distance, 0.13 mag (0.15 mag) in V-band extinction, and 140 K (180 K) in effective temperature. Our results are validated by comparisons with open clusters, as well as with asteroseismic and spectroscopic measurements, indicating systematic errors smaller than the nominal uncertainties for the vast majority of objects. We also provide distance- and extinction-corrected colour-magnitude diagrams, extinction maps, and extensive stellar density maps that reveal detailed substructures in the Milky Way and beyond. The new density maps now probe a much greater volume, extending to regions beyond the Galactic bar and to Local Group galaxies, with a larger total number density. We publish our results through an ADQL query interface (gaia . aip . de) as well as via tables containing approximations of the full posterior distributions. Our multi-wavelength approach and the deep magnitude limit render our results useful also beyond the next Gaia release, DR3.}, language = {en} } @article{KelesMallonnKitzmannetal.2022, author = {Keles, Engin and Mallonn, Matthias and Kitzmann, Daniel and Poppenh{\"a}ger, Katja and Hoeijmakers, H. Jens and Ilyin, Ilya and Alexoudi, Xanthippi and Carroll, Thorsten A. and Alvarado-Gomez, Julian and Ketzer, Laura and Bonomo, Aldo S. and Borsa, Francesco and Gaudi, B. Scott and Henning, Thomas and Malavolta, Luca and Molaverdikhani, Karan and Nascimbeni, Valerio and Patience, Jennifer and Pino, Lorenzo and Scandariato, Gaetano and Schlawin, Everett and Shkolnik, Evgenya and Sicilia, Daniela and Sozzetti, Alessandro and Foster, Mary G. and Veillet, Christian and Wang, Ji and Yan, Fei and Strassmeier, Klaus G.}, title = {The PEPSI exoplanet transit survey (PETS) I: Investigating the presence of a silicate atmosphere on the super-earth 55 Cnc e}, series = {Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}, volume = {513}, journal = {Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}, number = {1}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0035-8711}, doi = {10.1093/mnras/stac810}, pages = {1544 -- 1556}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The study of exoplanets and especially their atmospheres can reveal key insights on their evolution by identifying specific atmospheric species. For such atmospheric investigations, high-resolution transmission spectroscopy has shown great success, especially for Jupiter-type planets. Towards the atmospheric characterization of smaller planets, the super-Earth exoplanet 55 Cnc e is one of the most promising terrestrial exoplanets studied to date. Here, we present a high-resolution spectroscopic transit observation of this planet, acquired with the PEPSI instrument at the Large Binocular Telescope. Assuming the presence of Earth-like crust species on the surface of 55 Cnc e, from which a possible silicate-vapor atmosphere could have originated, we search in its transmission spectrum for absorption of various atomic and ionized species such as Fe , Fe (+), Ca , Ca (+), Mg, and K , among others. Not finding absorption for any of the investigated species, we are able to set absorption limits with a median value of 1.9 x R-P. In conclusion, we do not find evidence of a widely extended silicate envelope on this super-Earth reaching several planetary radii.}, language = {en} } @article{KramerBouriaudFeindtetal.2022, author = {Kramer, Koen and Bouriaud, Laura and Feindt, Peter H. and van Wassenaer, Lan and Glanemann, Nicole and Hanewinkel, Marc and van der Heide, Martijn and Hengeveld, Geerten M. and Hoogstra, Marjanke and Ingram, Verina and Levermann, Anders and Lindner, Marcus and M{\´a}ty{\´a}s, Csaba and Mohren, Frits and Muys, Bart and Nabuurs, Gert-Jan and Palahi, Marc and Polman, Nico and Reyer, Christopher P. O. and Schulze, Ernst-Detlef and Seidl, Rupert and de Vries, Wim and Werners, Saskia E. and Winkel, Georg and Yousefpour, Rasoul}, title = {Perspective Roadmap to develop a stress test for forest ecosystem services supply}, series = {One Earth}, volume = {5}, journal = {One Earth}, number = {1}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {2590-3330}, doi = {10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.009}, pages = {25 -- 34}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Forests play a key role in a bio-based economy by providing renewable materials, mitigating climate change, and accommodating biodiversity. However, forests experience massive increases in stresses in their ecological and socioeconomic environments, threatening forest ecosystem services supply. Alleviating those stresses is hampered by conflicting and disconnected governance arrangements, competing interests and claims, and rapid changes in technology and social demands. Identifying which stresses threaten forest ecosystem services supply and which factors hamper their alleviation requires stakeholders' perceptions. Stakeholder-oriented stress tests for the supply of forest ecosystem services are therefore necessary but are not yet available. This perspective presents a roadmap to develop a stress test tailored to multiple stakeholders' needs and demands across spatial scales. We provide the Cascade and Resilience Rosetta, with accompanying performance- and resilience indicators, as tools to facilitate development of the stress test. The application of the stress test will facilitate the transition toward a bio-based economy in which healthy and diverse forests provide sustainable and resilient ecosystem services.}, language = {en} } @article{DamleSparreRichteretal.2022, author = {Damle, Mitali and Sparre, Martin and Richter, Philipp and Hani, Maan H. and Nuza, Sebastian and Pfrommer, Christoph and Grand, Robert J. J. and Hoffman, Yehuda and Libeskind, Noam and Sorce, Jenny and Steinmetz, Mathias and Tempel, Elmo and Vogelsberger, Mark and Wang, Peng}, title = {Cold and hot gas distribution around the Milky-Way - M31 system in the HESTIA simulations}, series = {Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}, volume = {512}, journal = {Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0035-8711}, doi = {10.1093/mnras/stac663}, pages = {3717 -- 3737}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Recent observations have revealed remarkable insights into the gas reservoir in the circumgalactic medium (CGM) of galaxy haloes. In this paper, we characterise the gas in the vicinity of Milky Way and Andromeda analogues in the hestia (High resolution Environmental Simulations of The Immediate Area) suite of constrained Local Group (LG) simulations. The hestia suite comprise of a set of three high-resolution arepo-based simulations of the LG, run using the Auriga galaxy formation model. For this paper, we focus only on the 𝑧 = 0 simulation datasets and generate mock skymaps along with a power spectrum analysis to show that the distributions of ions tracing low-temperature gas (H i and Si iii) are more clumpy in comparison to warmer gas tracers (O vi, O vii and O viii). We compare to the spectroscopic CGM observations of M31 and low-redshift galaxies. hestia under-produces the column densities of the M31 observations, but the simulations are consistent with the observations of low-redshift galaxies. A possible explanation for these findings is that the spectroscopic observations of M31 are contaminated by gas residing in the CGM of the Milky Way.}, language = {en} } @misc{CiemerRehmKurthsetal.2020, author = {Ciemer, Catrin and Rehm, Lars and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Donner, Reik Volker and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Boers, Niklas}, title = {An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {9}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-52586}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525863}, pages = {12}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.}, language = {en} } @article{WinkelmannLevermannMartinetal.2012, author = {Winkelmann, Ricarda and Levermann, Anders and Martin, Maria A. and Frieler, Katja}, title = {Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall}, series = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, volume = {492}, journal = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, number = {7428}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {0028-0836}, doi = {10.1038/nature11616}, pages = {239 -- +}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise(1), but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss(2,3) and ocean expansion(4). Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall(5), but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica(1,6) and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model(7) forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Schlemm2022, author = {Schlemm, Tanja}, title = {The marine ice cliff instability of the Antarctic ice sheet}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-58633}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-586333}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {107}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The Antarctic ice sheet is the largest freshwater reservoir worldwide. If it were to melt completely, global sea levels would rise by about 58 m. Calculation of projections of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise under global warming conditions is an ongoing effort which yields large ranges in predictions. Among the reasons for this are uncertainties related to the physics of ice sheet modeling. These uncertainties include two processes that could lead to runaway ice retreat: the Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), which causes rapid grounding line retreat on retrograde bedrock, and the Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI), in which tall ice cliffs become unstable and calve off, exposing even taller ice cliffs. In my thesis, I investigated both marine instabilities (MISI and MICI) using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), with a focus on MICI.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Kuhla2022, author = {Kuhla, Kilian}, title = {Impact, distribution, and adaptation}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-55266}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-552668}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {vii, 309}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Weather extremes pose a persistent threat to society on multiple layers. Besides an average of ~37,000 deaths per year, climate-related disasters cause destroyed properties and impaired economic activities, eroding people's livelihoods and prosperity. While global temperature rises - caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions - the direct impacts of climatic extreme events increase and will further intensify without proper adaptation measures. Additionally, weather extremes do not only have local direct effects. Resulting economic repercussions can propagate either upstream or downstream along trade chains causing indirect effects. One approach to analyze these indirect effects within the complex global supply network is the agent-based model Acclimate. Using and extending this loss-propagation model, I focus in this thesis on three aspects of the relation between weather extremes and economic repercussions. First, extreme weather events cause direct impacts on local economic performance. I compute daily local direct output loss time series of heat stress, river floods, tropical cyclones, and their consecutive occurrence using (near-future) climate projection ensembles. These regional impacts are estimated based on physical drivers and local productivity distribution. Direct effects of the aforementioned disaster categories are widely heterogeneous concerning regional and temporal distribution. As well, their intensity changes differently under future warming. Focusing on the hurricane-impacted capital, I find that long-term growth losses increase with higher heterogeneity of a shock ensemble. Second, repercussions are sectorally and regionally distributed via economic ripples within the trading network, causing higher-order effects. I use Acclimate to identify three phases of those economic ripples. Furthermore, I compute indirect impacts and analyze overall regional and global production and consumption changes. Regarding heat stress, global consumer losses double while direct output losses increase by a factor 1.5 between 2000 - 2039. In my research I identify the effect of economic ripple resonance and introduce it to climate impact research. This effect occurs if economic ripples of consecutive disasters overlap, which increases economic responses such as an enhancement of consumption losses. These loss enhancements can even be more amplified with increasing direct output losses, e.g. caused by climate crises. Transport disruptions can cause economic repercussions as well. For this, I extend the model Acclimate with a geographical transportation route and expand the decision horizon of economic agents. Using this, I show that policy-induced sudden trade restrictions (e.g. a no-deal Brexit) can significantly reduce the longer-term economic prosperity of affected regions. Analyses of transportation disruptions in typhoon seasons indicate that severely affected regions must reduce production as demand falls during a storm. Substituting suppliers may compensate for fluctuations at the beginning of the storm, which fails for prolonged disruptions. Third, possible coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies arise from direct and indirect economic responses to weather extremes. Analyzing annual trade changes due to typhoon-induced transport disruptions depict that overall exports rise. This trade resilience increases with higher network node diversification. Further, my research shows that a basic insurance scheme may diminish hurricane-induced long-term growth losses due to faster reconstruction in disasters aftermaths. I find that insurance coverage could be an economically reasonable coping scheme towards higher losses caused by the climate crisis. Indirect effects within the global economic network from weather extremes indicate further adaptation possibilities. For one, diversifying linkages reduce the hazard of sharp price increases. Next to this, close economic interconnections with regions that do not share the same extreme weather season can be economically beneficial in the medium run. Furthermore, economic ripple resonance effects should be considered while computing costs. Overall, an increase in local adaptation measures reduces economic ripples within the trade network and possible losses elsewhere. In conclusion, adaptation measures are necessary and potential present, but it seems rather not possible to avoid all direct or indirect losses. As I show in this thesis, dynamical modeling gives valuable insights into how direct and indirect economic impacts arise from different categories of weather extremes. Further, it highlights the importance of resolving individual extremes and reflecting amplifying effects caused by incomplete recovery or consecutive disasters.}, language = {en} } @article{SeroussiNowickiSimonetal.2019, author = {Seroussi, Helene and Nowicki, Sophie and Simon, Erika and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako and Albrecht, Torsten and Brondex, Julien and Cornford, Stephen and Dumas, Christophe and Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien and Goelzer, Heiko and Golledge, Nicholas R. and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Greve, Ralf and Hoffman, Matthew J. and Humbert, Angelika and Huybrechts, Philippe and Kleiner, Thomas and Larourl, Eric and Leguy, Gunter and Lipscomb, William H. and Lowry, Daniel and Mengel, Matthias and Morlighem, Mathieu and Pattyn, Frank and Payne, Anthony J. and Pollard, David and Price, Stephen F. and Quiquet, Aurelien and Reerink, Thomas J. and Reese, Ronja and Rodehacke, Christian B. and Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne and Shepherd, Andrew and Sun, Sainan and Sutter, Johannes and Van Breedam, Jonas and van de Wal, Roderik S. W. and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Zhang, Tong}, title = {initMIP-Antarctica}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {13}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {5}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019}, pages = {1441 -- 1471}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMlP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMlP-Greenland, initMlP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMlP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.}, language = {en} }