@article{MarwanTrauthVuilleetal.2003, author = {Marwan, Norbert and Trauth, Martin H. and Vuille, Mathias and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Comparing modern and Pleistocene ENSO-like influences in NW Argentina using nonlinear time series analysis methods}, year = {2003}, abstract = {Higher variability in rainfall and river discharge could be of major importance in landslide generation in the north-western Argentine Andes. Annual layered (varved) deposits of a landslide dammed lake in the Santa Maria Basin (26°S, 66°W) with an age of 30,000 14C years provide an archive of precipitation variability during this time. The comparison of these data with present-day rainfall observations tests the hypothesis that increased rainfall variability played a major role in landslide generation. A potential cause of such variability is the El Ni{\~n}o/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The causal link between ENSO and local rainfall is quantified by using a new method of nonlinear data analysis, the quantitative analysis of cross recurrence plots (CRP). This method seeks similarities in the dynamics of two different processes, such as an ocean-atmosphere oscillation and local rainfall. Our analysis reveals significant similarities in the statistics of both modern and palaeo-precipitation data. The similarities in the data suggest that an ENSO-like influence on local rainfall was present at around 30,000 14C years ago. Increased rainfall, which was inferred from a lake balance modeling in a previous study, together with ENSO-like cyclicities could help to explain the clustering of landslides at around 30,000 14C years ago.}, language = {en} } @article{MarwanWesselMeyerfeldtetal.2002, author = {Marwan, Norbert and Wessel, Niels and Meyerfeldt, Udo and Schirdewan, Alexander and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Recurrence-plot-based measures of complexity and its application to heart-rate-variability data}, year = {2002}, abstract = {The knowledge of transitions between regular, laminar or chaotic behavior is essential to understand the underlying mechanisms behind complex systems. While several linear approaches are often insufficient to describe such processes, there are several nonlinear methods which however require rather long time observations. To overcome these difficulties, we propose measures of complexity based on vertical structures in recurrence plots and apply them to the logistic map as well as to heart rate variability data. For the logistic map these measures enable us not only to detect transitions between chaotic and periodic states, but also to identify laminar states, i.e. chaos-chaos transitions. The traditional recurrence quantification analysis fails to detect the latter transitions. Applying our new measures to the heart rate variability data, we are able to detect and quantify the laminar phases before a life-threatening cardiac arrhythmia occurs thereby facilitating a prediction of such an event. Our findings could be of importance for the therapy of malignant cardiac arrhythmias.}, language = {en} } @article{DongesDonnerTrauthetal.2011, author = {Donges, Jonathan and Donner, Reik Volker and Trauth, Martin H. and Marwan, Norbert and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Nonlinear detection of paleoclimate-variability transitions possibly related to human evolution}, series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, number = {51}, publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0027-8424}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1117052108}, pages = {20422 -- 20427}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Potential paleoclimatic driving mechanisms acting on human evolution present an open problem of cross-disciplinary scientific interest. The analysis of paleoclimate archives encoding the environmental variability in East Africa during the past 5 Ma has triggered an ongoing debate about possible candidate processes and evolutionary mechanisms. In this work, we apply a nonlinear statistical technique, recurrence network analysis, to three distinct marine records of terrigenous dust flux. Our method enables us to identify three epochs with transitions between qualitatively different types of environmental variability in North and East Africa during the (i) Middle Pliocene (3.35-3.15 Ma B. P.), (ii) Early Pleistocene (2.25-1.6 Ma B. P.), and (iii) Middle Pleistocene (1.1-0.7 Ma B. P.). A deeper examination of these transition periods reveals potential climatic drivers, including (i) large-scale changes in ocean currents due to a spatial shift of the Indonesian throughflow in combination with an intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation, (ii) a global reorganization of the atmospheric Walker circulation induced in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean, and (iii) shifts in the dominating temporal variability pattern of glacial activity during the Middle Pleistocene, respectively. A reexamination of the available fossil record demonstrates statistically significant coincidences between the detected transition periods and major steps in hominin evolution. This result suggests that the observed shifts between more regular and more erratic environmental variability may have acted as a trigger for rapid change in the development of humankind in Africa.}, language = {en} } @article{DongesZouMarwanetal.2009, author = {Donges, Jonathan and Zou, Yong and Marwan, Norbert and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Complex networks in climate dynamics : comparing linear and nonlinear network construction methods}, issn = {1951-6355}, doi = {10.1140/epjst/e2009-01098-2}, year = {2009}, abstract = {Complex network theory provides a powerful framework to statistically investigate the topology of local and non- local statistical interrelationships, i.e. teleconnections, in the climate system. Climate networks constructed from the same global climatological data set using the linear Pearson correlation coefficient or the nonlinear mutual information as a measure of dynamical similarity between regions, are compared systematically on local, mesoscopic and global topological scales. A high degree of similarity is observed on the local and mesoscopic topological scales for surface air temperature fields taken from AOGCM and reanalysis data sets. We find larger differences on the global scale, particularly in the betweenness centrality field. The global scale view on climate networks obtained using mutual information offers promising new perspectives for detecting network structures based on nonlinear physical processes in the climate system.}, language = {en} } @unpublished{EngbertScheffczykKrampeetal.1997, author = {Engbert, Ralf and Scheffczyk, Christian and Krampe, Ralf-Thomas and Rosenblum, Mikhael and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Kliegl, Reinhold}, title = {Tempo-induced transitions in polyrhythmic hand movements}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-14380}, year = {1997}, abstract = {We investigate the cognitive control in polyrhythmic hand movements as a model paradigm for bimanual coordination. Using a symbolic coding of the recorded time series, we demonstrate the existence of qualitative transitions induced by experimental manipulation of the tempo. A nonlinear model with delayed feedback control is proposed, which accounts for these dynamical transitions in terms of bifurcations resulting from variation of the external control parameter. Furthermore, it is shown that transitions can also be observed due to fluctuations in the timing control level. We conclude that the complexity of coordinated bimanual movements results from interactions between nonlinear control mechanisms with delayed feedback and stochastic timing components.}, language = {en} } @misc{ThielRomanoKurthsetal.2006, author = {Thiel, Marco and Romano, Maria Carmen and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Rolfs, Martin and Kliegl, Reinhold}, title = {Generating Surrogates from Recurrences}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-56906}, year = {2006}, abstract = {In this paper we present an approach to recover the dynamics from recurrences of a system and then generate (multivariate) twin surrogate (TS) trajectories. In contrast to other approaches, such as the linear-like surrogates, this technique produces surrogates which correspond to an independent copy of the underlying system, i. e. they induce a trajectory of the underlying system visiting the attractor in a different way. We show that these surrogates are well suited to test for complex synchronization, which makes it possible to systematically assess the reliability of synchronization analyses. We then apply the TS to study binocular fixational movements and find strong indications that the fixational movements of the left and right eye are phase synchronized. This result indicates that there might be one centre only in the brain that produces the fixational movements in both eyes or a close link between two centres.}, language = {en} } @misc{CiemerRehmKurthsetal.2020, author = {Ciemer, Catrin and Rehm, Lars and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Donner, Reik Volker and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Boers, Niklas}, title = {An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {9}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-52586}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525863}, pages = {12}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.}, language = {en} } @article{ScheffczykEngbertKurthsetal.1995, author = {Scheffczyk, Christian and Engbert, Ralf and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Krampe, Ralf-Thomas and Kliegl, Reinhold}, title = {Nonlinear Phenomena in Polyrhythmic Hand Movements}, isbn = {981-02-2689-6}, year = {1995}, abstract = {In this paper we apply symbolic transformations as a visualisation technique for analysing rhythm production. It is shown that qualitative information can be extracted from the experimental data. This approach may provide new insights into the organisation of temporal order by the brain on different levels of description. A simple phenomenological model for the explanation of the observed phenomena is proposed.}, language = {en} } @article{EngbertScheffczykKrampeetal.2002, author = {Engbert, Ralf and Scheffczyk, Christian and Krampe, Ralf-Thomas and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Kliegl, Reinhold}, title = {Symbolic dynamics of bimanual production of polyrhythms}, isbn = {3-540- 63481-9}, year = {2002}, abstract = {We analyse time series from a study on bimanual rhythmic movements in which the speed of performance (the external control parameter) was experimentally manipulated. Using symbolic transformations as a visualization technique we observe qualitative changes in the dynamics of the timing patterns. Such phase transitions are quantitatively described by measures of complexity. Using these results we develop an advanced symbolic coding which enables us to detect important dynamical structures. Furthermore, our analysis raises new questions concerning the modelling of the underlying human cognitive-motor system.}, language = {en} } @article{ScheffczykKrampeEngbertetal.1997, author = {Scheffczyk, Christian and Krampe, Ralf-Thomas and Engbert, Ralf and Rosenblum, Michael and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Kliegl, Reinhold}, title = {Tempo-induced transitions in polyrhythmic hand movements}, year = {1997}, abstract = {We investigate the cognitive control in polyrhythmic hand movements as a model paradigm for bimanual coordination. Using a symbolic coding of the recorded time series, we demonstrate the existence of qualitative transitions induced by experimental manipulation of the tempo. A nonlinear model with delayed feedback control is proposed, which accounts for these dynamical transitions in terms of bifurcations resulting from variation of the external control parameter. Furthermore, it is shown that transitions can also be observed due to fluctuations in the timing control level. We conclude that the complexity of coordinated bimanual movements results from interactions between nonlinear control mechanisms with delayed feedback and stochastic timing components.}, language = {en} }