@phdthesis{Boeken2022,
  author    = {B{\"o}ken, Bj{\"o}rn},
  title     = {Improving prediction accuracy using dynamic information},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-58512},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-585125},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xii, 160},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Accurately solving classification problems nowadays is likely to be the most relevant machine learning task. Binary classification separating two classes only is algorithmically simpler but has fewer potential applications as many real-world problems are multi-class. On the reverse, separating only a subset of classes simplifies the classification task. Even though existing multi-class machine learning algorithms are very flexible regarding the number of classes, they assume that the target set Y is fixed and cannot be restricted once the training is finished. On the other hand, existing state-of-the-art production environments are becoming increasingly interconnected with the advance of Industry 4.0 and related technologies such that additional information can simplify the respective classification problems. In light of this, the main aim of this thesis is to introduce dynamic classification that generalizes multi-class classification such that the target class set can be restricted arbitrarily to a non-empty class subset M of Y at any time between two consecutive predictions. This task is solved by a combination of two algorithmic approaches. First, classifier calibration, which transforms predictions into posterior probability estimates that are intended to be well calibrated. The analysis provided focuses on monotonic calibration and in particular corrects wrong statements that appeared in the literature. It also reveals that bin-based evaluation metrics, which became popular in recent years, are unjustified and should not be used at all. Next, the validity of Platt scaling, which is the most relevant parametric calibration approach, is analyzed in depth. In particular, its optimality for classifier predictions distributed according to four different families of probability distributions as well its equivalence with Beta calibration up to a sigmoidal preprocessing are proven. For non-monotonic calibration, extended variants on kernel density estimation and the ensemble method EKDE are introduced. Finally, the calibration techniques are evaluated using a simulation study with complete information as well as on a selection of 46 real-world data sets. Building on this, classifier calibration is applied as part of decomposition-based classification that aims to reduce multi-class problems to simpler (usually binary) prediction tasks. For the involved fusing step performed at prediction time, a new approach based on evidence theory is presented that uses classifier calibration to model mass functions. This allows the analysis of decomposition-based classification against a strictly formal background and to prove closed-form equations for the overall combinations. Furthermore, the same formalism leads to a consistent integration of dynamic class information, yielding a theoretically justified and computationally tractable dynamic classification model. The insights gained from this modeling are combined with pairwise coupling, which is one of the most relevant reduction-based classification approaches, such that all individual predictions are combined with a weight. This not only generalizes existing works on pairwise coupling but also enables the integration of dynamic class information. Lastly, a thorough empirical study is performed that compares all newly introduced approaches to existing state-of-the-art techniques. For this, evaluation metrics for dynamic classification are introduced that depend on corresponding sampling strategies. Thereafter, these are applied during a three-part evaluation. First, support vector machines and random forests are applied on 26 data sets from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. Second, two state-of-the-art deep neural networks are evaluated on five benchmark data sets from a relatively recent reference work. Here, computationally feasible strategies to apply the presented algorithms in combination with large-scale models are particularly relevant because a naive application is computationally intractable. Finally, reference data from a real-world process allowing the inclusion of dynamic class information are collected and evaluated. The results show that in combination with support vector machines and random forests, pairwise coupling approaches yield the best results, while in combination with deep neural networks, differences between the different approaches are mostly small to negligible. Most importantly, all results empirically confirm that dynamic classification succeeds in improving the respective prediction accuracies. Therefore, it is crucial to pass dynamic class information in respective applications, which requires an appropriate digital infrastructure.},
  language  = {en}
}