@phdthesis{Prasse2016,
  author    = {Prasse, Paul},
  title     = {Pattern recognition for computer security},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-100251},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {VI, 75},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Computer Security deals with the detection and mitigation of threats to computer networks, data, and computing hardware. This thesis addresses the following two computer security problems: email spam campaign and malware detection. Email spam campaigns can easily be generated using popular dissemination tools by specifying simple grammars that serve as message templates. A grammar is disseminated to nodes of a bot net, the nodes create messages by instantiating the grammar at random. Email spam campaigns can encompass huge data volumes and therefore pose a threat to the stability of the infrastructure of email service providers that have to store them. Malware -software that serves a malicious purpose- is affecting web servers, client computers via active content, and client computers through executable files. Without the help of malware detection systems it would be easy for malware creators to collect sensitive information or to infiltrate computers. The detection of threats -such as email-spam messages, phishing messages, or malware- is an adversarial and therefore intrinsically difficult problem. Threats vary greatly and evolve over time. The detection of threats based on manually-designed rules is therefore difficult and requires a constant engineering effort. Machine-learning is a research area that revolves around the analysis of data and the discovery of patterns that describe aspects of the data. Discriminative learning methods extract prediction models from data that are optimized to predict a target attribute as accurately as possible. Machine-learning methods hold the promise of automatically identifying patterns that robustly and accurately detect threats. This thesis focuses on the design and analysis of discriminative learning methods for the two computer-security problems under investigation: email-campaign and malware detection. The first part of this thesis addresses email-campaign detection. We focus on regular expressions as a syntactic framework, because regular expressions are intuitively comprehensible by security engineers and administrators, and they can be applied as a detection mechanism in an extremely efficient manner. In this setting, a prediction model is provided with exemplary messages from an email-spam campaign. The prediction model has to generate a regular expression that reveals the syntactic pattern that underlies the entire campaign, and that a security engineers finds comprehensible and feels confident enough to use the expression to blacklist further messages at the email server. We model this problem as two-stage learning problem with structured input and output spaces which can be solved using standard cutting plane methods. Therefore we develop an appropriate loss function, and derive a decoder for the resulting optimization problem. The second part of this thesis deals with the problem of predicting whether a given JavaScript or PHP file is malicious or benign. Recent malware analysis techniques use static or dynamic features, or both. In fully dynamic analysis, the software or script is executed and observed for malicious behavior in a sandbox environment. By contrast, static analysis is based on features that can be extracted directly from the program file. In order to bypass static detection mechanisms, code obfuscation techniques are used to spread a malicious program file in many different syntactic variants. Deobfuscating the code before applying a static classifier can be subjected to mostly static code analysis and can overcome the problem of obfuscated malicious code, but on the other hand increases the computational costs of malware detection by an order of magnitude. In this thesis we present a cascaded architecture in which a classifier first performs a static analysis of the original code and -based on the outcome of this first classification step- the code may be deobfuscated and classified again. We explore several types of features including token \$n\$-grams, orthogonal sparse bigrams, subroutine-hashings, and syntax-tree features and study the robustness of detection methods and feature types against the evolution of malware over time. The developed tool scans very large file collections quickly and accurately. Each model is evaluated on real-world data and compared to reference methods. Our approach of inferring regular expressions to filter emails belonging to an email spam campaigns leads to models with a high true-positive rate at a very low false-positive rate that is an order of magnitude lower than that of a commercial content-based filter. Our presented system -REx-SVMshort- is being used by a commercial email service provider and complements content-based and IP-address based filtering. Our cascaded malware detection system is evaluated on a high-quality data set of almost 400,000 conspicuous PHP files and a collection of more than 1,00,000 JavaScript files. From our case study we can conclude that our system can quickly and accurately process large data collections at a low false-positive rate.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Videla2014,
  author    = {Videla, Santiago},
  title     = {Reasoning on the response of logical signaling networks with answer set programming},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-71890},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {Deciphering the functioning of biological networks is one of the central tasks in systems biology. In particular, signal transduction networks are crucial for the understanding of the cellular response to external and internal perturbations. Importantly, in order to cope with the complexity of these networks, mathematical and computational modeling is required. We propose a computational modeling framework in order to achieve more robust discoveries in the context of logical signaling networks. More precisely, we focus on modeling the response of logical signaling networks by means of automated reasoning using Answer Set Programming (ASP). ASP provides a declarative language for modeling various knowledge representation and reasoning problems. Moreover, available ASP solvers provide several reasoning modes for assessing the multitude of answer sets. Therefore, leveraging its rich modeling language and its highly efficient solving capacities, we use ASP to address three challenging problems in the context of logical signaling networks: learning of (Boolean) logical networks, experimental design, and identification of intervention strategies. Overall, the contribution of this thesis is three-fold. Firstly, we introduce a mathematical framework for characterizing and reasoning on the response of logical signaling networks. Secondly, we contribute to a growing list of successful applications of ASP in systems biology. Thirdly, we present a software providing a complete pipeline for automated reasoning on the response of logical signaling networks.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Haider2013,
  author    = {Haider, Peter},
  title     = {Prediction with Mixture Models},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-69617},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Learning a model for the relationship between the attributes and the annotated labels of data examples serves two purposes. Firstly, it enables the prediction of the label for examples without annotation. Secondly, the parameters of the model can provide useful insights into the structure of the data. If the data has an inherent partitioned structure, it is natural to mirror this structure in the model. Such mixture models predict by combining the individual predictions generated by the mixture components which correspond to the partitions in the data. Often the partitioned structure is latent, and has to be inferred when learning the mixture model. Directly evaluating the accuracy of the inferred partition structure is, in many cases, impossible because the ground truth cannot be obtained for comparison. However it can be assessed indirectly by measuring the prediction accuracy of the mixture model that arises from it. This thesis addresses the interplay between the improvement of predictive accuracy by uncovering latent cluster structure in data, and further addresses the validation of the estimated structure by measuring the accuracy of the resulting predictive model. In the application of filtering unsolicited emails, the emails in the training set are latently clustered into advertisement campaigns. Uncovering this latent structure allows filtering of future emails with very low false positive rates. In order to model the cluster structure, a Bayesian clustering model for dependent binary features is developed in this thesis. Knowing the clustering of emails into campaigns can also aid in uncovering which emails have been sent on behalf of the same network of captured hosts, so-called botnets. This association of emails to networks is another layer of latent clustering. Uncovering this latent structure allows service providers to further increase the accuracy of email filtering and to effectively defend against distributed denial-of-service attacks. To this end, a discriminative clustering model is derived in this thesis that is based on the graph of observed emails. The partitionings inferred using this model are evaluated through their capacity to predict the campaigns of new emails. Furthermore, when classifying the content of emails, statistical information about the sending server can be valuable. Learning a model that is able to make use of it requires training data that includes server statistics. In order to also use training data where the server statistics are missing, a model that is a mixture over potentially all substitutions thereof is developed. Another application is to predict the navigation behavior of the users of a website. Here, there is no a priori partitioning of the users into clusters, but to understand different usage scenarios and design different layouts for them, imposing a partitioning is necessary. The presented approach simultaneously optimizes the discriminative as well as the predictive power of the clusters. Each model is evaluated on real-world data and compared to baseline methods. The results show that explicitly modeling the assumptions about the latent cluster structure leads to improved predictions compared to the baselines. It is beneficial to incorporate a small number of hyperparameters that can be tuned to yield the best predictions in cases where the prediction accuracy can not be optimized directly.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Dick2016,
  author    = {Dick, Uwe},
  title     = {Discriminative Classification Models for Internet Security},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-102593},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {x, 57},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Services that operate over the Internet are under constant threat of being exposed to fraudulent use. Maintaining good user experience for legitimate users often requires the classification of entities as malicious or legitimate in order to initiate countermeasures. As an example, inbound email spam filters decide for spam or non-spam. They can base their decision on both the content of each email as well as on features that summarize prior emails received from the sending server. In general, discriminative classification methods learn to distinguish positive from negative entities. Each decision for a label may be based on features of the entity and related entities. When labels of related entities have strong interdependencies---as can be assumed e.g. for emails being delivered by the same user---classification decisions should not be made independently and dependencies should be modeled in the decision function. This thesis addresses the formulation of discriminative classification problems that are tailored for the specific demands of the following three Internet security applications. Theoretical and algorithmic solutions are devised to protect an email service against flooding of user inboxes, to mitigate abusive usage of outbound email servers, and to protect web servers against distributed denial of service attacks. In the application of filtering an inbound email stream for unsolicited emails, utilizing features that go beyond each individual email's content can be valuable. Information about each sending mail server can be aggregated over time and may help in identifying unwanted emails. However, while this information will be available to the deployed email filter, some parts of the training data that are compiled by third party providers may not contain this information. The missing features have to be estimated at training time in order to learn a classification model. In this thesis an algorithm is derived that learns a decision function that integrates over a distribution of values for each missing entry. The distribution of missing values is a free parameter that is optimized to learn an optimal decision function. The outbound stream of emails of an email service provider can be separated by the customer IDs that ask for delivery. All emails that are sent by the same ID in the same period of time are related, both in content and in label. Hijacked customer accounts may send batches of unsolicited emails to other email providers, which in turn might blacklist the sender's email servers after detection of incoming spam emails. The risk of being blocked from further delivery depends on the rate of outgoing unwanted emails and the duration of high spam sending rates. An optimization problem is developed that minimizes the expected cost for the email provider by learning a decision function that assigns a limit on the sending rate to customers based on the each customer's email stream. Identifying attacking IPs during HTTP-level DDoS attacks allows to block those IPs from further accessing the web servers. DDoS attacks are usually carried out by infected clients that are members of the same botnet and show similar traffic patterns. HTTP-level attacks aim at exhausting one or more resources of the web server infrastructure, such as CPU time. If the joint set of attackers cannot increase resource usage close to the maximum capacity, no effect will be experienced by legitimate users of hosted web sites. However, if the additional load raises the computational burden towards the critical range, user experience will degrade until service may be unavailable altogether. As the loss of missing one attacker depends on block decisions for other attackers---if most other attackers are detected, not blocking one client will likely not be harmful---a structured output model has to be learned. In this thesis an algorithm is developed that learns a structured prediction decoder that searches the space of label assignments, guided by a policy. Each model is evaluated on real-world data and is compared to reference methods. The results show that modeling each classification problem according to the specific demands of the task improves performance over solutions that do not consider the constraints inherent to an application.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{AlAreqi2017,
  author    = {Al-Areqi, Samih Taha Mohammed},
  title     = {Semantics-based automatic geospatial service composition},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-402616},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xvi, 163},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Although it has become common practice to build applications based on the reuse of existing components or services, technical complexity and semantic challenges constitute barriers to ensuring a successful and wide reuse of components and services. In the geospatial application domain, the barriers are self-evident due to heterogeneous geographic data, a lack of interoperability and complex analysis processes. Constructing workflows manually and discovering proper services and data that match user intents and preferences is difficult and time-consuming especially for users who are not trained in software development. Furthermore, considering the multi-objective nature of environmental modeling for the assessment of climate change impacts and the various types of geospatial data (e.g., formats, scales, and georeferencing systems) increases the complexity challenges. Automatic service composition approaches that provide semantics-based assistance in the process of workflow design have proven to be a solution to overcome these challenges and have become a frequent demand especially by end users who are not IT experts. In this light, the major contributions of this thesis are: (i) Simplification of service reuse and workflow design of applications for climate impact analysis by following the eXtreme Model-Driven Development (XMDD) paradigm. (ii) Design of a semantic domain model for climate impact analysis applications that comprises specifically designed services, ontologies that provide domain-specific vocabulary for referring to types and services, and the input/output annotation of the services using the terms defined in the ontologies. (iii) Application of a constraint-driven method for the automatic composition of workflows for analyzing the impacts of sea-level rise. The application scenario demonstrates the impact of domain modeling decisions on the results and the performance of the synthesis algorithm.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Glander2012,
  author    = {Glander, Tassilo},
  title     = {Multi-scale representations of virtual 3D city models},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-64117},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Virtual 3D city and landscape models are the main subject investigated in this thesis. They digitally represent urban space and have many applications in different domains, e.g., simulation, cadastral management, and city planning. Visualization is an elementary component of these applications. Photo-realistic visualization with an increasingly high degree of detail leads to fundamental problems for comprehensible visualization. A large number of highly detailed and textured objects within a virtual 3D city model may create visual noise and overload the users with information. Objects are subject to perspective foreshortening and may be occluded or not displayed in a meaningful way, as they are too small. In this thesis we present abstraction techniques that automatically process virtual 3D city and landscape models to derive abstracted representations. These have a reduced degree of detail, while essential characteristics are preserved. After introducing definitions for model, scale, and multi-scale representations, we discuss the fundamentals of map generalization as well as techniques for 3D generalization. The first presented technique is a cell-based generalization of virtual 3D city models. It creates abstract representations that have a highly reduced level of detail while maintaining essential structures, e.g., the infrastructure network, landmark buildings, and free spaces. The technique automatically partitions the input virtual 3D city model into cells based on the infrastructure network. The single building models contained in each cell are aggregated to abstracted cell blocks. Using weighted infrastructure elements, cell blocks can be computed on different hierarchical levels, storing the hierarchy relation between the cell blocks. Furthermore, we identify initial landmark buildings within a cell by comparing the properties of individual buildings with the aggregated properties of the cell. For each block, the identified landmark building models are subtracted using Boolean operations and integrated in a photo-realistic way. Finally, for the interactive 3D visualization we discuss the creation of the virtual 3D geometry and their appearance styling through colors, labeling, and transparency. We demonstrate the technique with example data sets. Additionally, we discuss applications of generalization lenses and transitions between abstract representations. The second technique is a real-time-rendering technique for geometric enhancement of landmark objects within a virtual 3D city model. Depending on the virtual camera distance, landmark objects are scaled to ensure their visibility within a specific distance interval while deforming their environment. First, in a preprocessing step a landmark hierarchy is computed, this is then used to derive distance intervals for the interactive rendering. At runtime, using the virtual camera distance, a scaling factor is computed and applied to each landmark. The scaling factor is interpolated smoothly at the interval boundaries using cubic B{\´e}zier splines. Non-landmark geometry that is near landmark objects is deformed with respect to a limited number of landmarks. We demonstrate the technique by applying it to a highly detailed virtual 3D city model and a generalized 3D city model. In addition we discuss an adaptation of the technique for non-linear projections and mobile devices. The third technique is a real-time rendering technique to create abstract 3D isocontour visualization of virtual 3D terrain models. The virtual 3D terrain model is visualized as a layered or stepped relief. The technique works without preprocessing and, as it is implemented using programmable graphics hardware, can be integrated with minimal changes into common terrain rendering techniques. Consequently, the computation is done in the rendering pipeline for each vertex, primitive, i.e., triangle, and fragment. For each vertex, the height is quantized to the nearest isovalue. For each triangle, the vertex configuration with respect to their isovalues is determined first. Using the configuration, the triangle is then subdivided. The subdivision forms a partial step geometry aligned with the triangle. For each fragment, the surface appearance is determined, e.g., depending on the surface texture, shading, and height-color-mapping. Flexible usage of the technique is demonstrated with applications from focus+context visualization, out-of-core terrain rendering, and information visualization. This thesis presents components for the creation of abstract representations of virtual 3D city and landscape models. Re-using visual language from cartography, the techniques enable users to build on their experience with maps when interpreting these representations. Simultaneously, characteristics of 3D geovirtual environments are taken into account by addressing and discussing, e.g., continuous scale, interaction, and perspective.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Seibel2012,
  author    = {Seibel, Andreas},
  title     = {Traceability and model management with executable and dynamic hierarchical megamodels},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-64222},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Nowadays, model-driven engineering (MDE) promises to ease software development by decreasing the inherent complexity of classical software development. In order to deliver on this promise, MDE increases the level of abstraction and automation, through a consideration of domain-specific models (DSMs) and model operations (e.g. model transformations or code generations). DSMs conform to domain-specific modeling languages (DSMLs), which increase the level of abstraction, and model operations are first-class entities of software development because they increase the level of automation. Nevertheless, MDE has to deal with at least two new dimensions of complexity, which are basically caused by the increased linguistic and technological heterogeneity. The first dimension of complexity is setting up an MDE environment, an activity comprised of the implementation or selection of DSMLs and model operations. Setting up an MDE environment is both time-consuming and error-prone because of the implementation or adaptation of model operations. The second dimension of complexity is concerned with applying MDE for actual software development. Applying MDE is challenging because a collection of DSMs, which conform to potentially heterogeneous DSMLs, are required to completely specify a complex software system. A single DSML can only be used to describe a specific aspect of a software system at a certain level of abstraction and from a certain perspective. Additionally, DSMs are usually not independent but instead have inherent interdependencies, reflecting (partial) similar aspects of a software system at different levels of abstraction or from different perspectives. A subset of these dependencies are applications of various model operations, which are necessary to keep the degree of automation high. This becomes even worse when addressing the first dimension of complexity. Due to continuous changes, all kinds of dependencies, including the applications of model operations, must also be managed continuously. This comprises maintaining the existence of these dependencies and the appropriate (re-)application of model operations. The contribution of this thesis is an approach that combines traceability and model management to address the aforementioned challenges of configuring and applying MDE for software development. The approach is considered as a traceability approach because it supports capturing and automatically maintaining dependencies between DSMs. The approach is considered as a model management approach because it supports managing the automated (re-)application of heterogeneous model operations. In addition, the approach is considered as a comprehensive model management. Since the decomposition of model operations is encouraged to alleviate the first dimension of complexity, the subsequent composition of model operations is required to counteract their fragmentation. A significant portion of this thesis concerns itself with providing a method for the specification of decoupled yet still highly cohesive complex compositions of heterogeneous model operations. The approach supports two different kinds of compositions - data-flow compositions and context compositions. Data-flow composition is used to define a network of heterogeneous model operations coupled by sharing input and output DSMs alone. Context composition is related to a concept used in declarative model transformation approaches to compose individual model transformation rules (units) at any level of detail. In this thesis, context composition provides the ability to use a collection of dependencies as context for the composition of other dependencies, including model operations. In addition, the actual implementation of model operations, which are going to be composed, do not need to implement any composition concerns. The approach is realized by means of a formalism called an executable and dynamic hierarchical megamodel, based on the original idea of megamodels. This formalism supports specifying compositions of dependencies (traceability and model operations). On top of this formalism, traceability is realized by means of a localization concept, and model management by means of an execution concept.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Polyvyanyy2012,
  author    = {Polyvyanyy, Artem},
  title     = {Structuring process models},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-59024},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {One can fairly adopt the ideas of Donald E. Knuth to conclude that process modeling is both a science and an art. Process modeling does have an aesthetic sense. Similar to composing an opera or writing a novel, process modeling is carried out by humans who undergo creative practices when engineering a process model. Therefore, the very same process can be modeled in a myriad number of ways. Once modeled, processes can be analyzed by employing scientific methods. Usually, process models are formalized as directed graphs, with nodes representing tasks and decisions, and directed arcs describing temporal constraints between the nodes. Common process definition languages, such as Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) and Event-driven Process Chain (EPC) allow process analysts to define models with arbitrary complex topologies. The absence of structural constraints supports creativity and productivity, as there is no need to force ideas into a limited amount of available structural patterns. Nevertheless, it is often preferable that models follow certain structural rules. A well-known structural property of process models is (well-)structuredness. A process model is (well-)structured if and only if every node with multiple outgoing arcs (a split) has a corresponding node with multiple incoming arcs (a join), and vice versa, such that the set of nodes between the split and the join induces a single-entry-single-exit (SESE) region; otherwise the process model is unstructured. The motivations for well-structured process models are manifold: (i) Well-structured process models are easier to layout for visual representation as their formalizations are planar graphs. (ii) Well-structured process models are easier to comprehend by humans. (iii) Well-structured process models tend to have fewer errors than unstructured ones and it is less probable to introduce new errors when modifying a well-structured process model. (iv) Well-structured process models are better suited for analysis with many existing formal techniques applicable only for well-structured process models. (v) Well-structured process models are better suited for efficient execution and optimization, e.g., when discovering independent regions of a process model that can be executed concurrently. Consequently, there are process modeling languages that encourage well-structured modeling, e.g., Business Process Execution Language (BPEL) and ADEPT. However, the well-structured process modeling implies some limitations: (i) There exist processes that cannot be formalized as well-structured process models. (ii) There exist processes that when formalized as well-structured process models require a considerable duplication of modeling constructs. Rather than expecting well-structured modeling from start, we advocate for the absence of structural constraints when modeling. Afterwards, automated methods can suggest, upon request and whenever possible, alternative formalizations that are "better" structured, preferably well-structured. In this thesis, we study the problem of automatically transforming process models into equivalent well-structured models. The developed transformations are performed under a strong notion of behavioral equivalence which preserves concurrency. The findings are implemented in a tool, which is publicly available.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Middelanis2023,
  author    = {Middelanis, Robin},
  title     = {Global response to local extremes—a storyline approach on economic loss propagation from weather extremes},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-61112},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-611127},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {vii, 237},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, Earth's average surface temperature is steadily increasing. As a consequence, many weather extremes are likely to become more frequent and intense. This poses a threat to natural and human systems, with local impacts capable of destroying exposed assets and infrastructure, and disrupting economic and societal activity. Yet, these effects are not locally confined to the directly affected regions, as they can trigger indirect economic repercussions through loss propagation along supply chains. As a result, local extremes yield a potentially global economic response. To build economic resilience and design effective adaptation measures that mitigate adverse socio-economic impacts of ongoing climate change, it is crucial to gain a comprehensive understanding of indirect impacts and the underlying economic mechanisms. Presenting six articles in this thesis, I contribute towards this understanding. To this end, I expand on local impacts under current and future climate, the resulting global economic response, as well as the methods and tools to analyze this response. Starting with a traditional assessment of weather extremes under climate change, the first article investigates extreme snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere until the end of the century. Analyzing an ensemble of global climate model projections reveals an increase of the most extreme snowfall, while mean snowfall decreases. Assessing repercussions beyond local impacts, I employ numerical simulations to compute indirect economic effects from weather extremes with the numerical agent-based shock propagation model Acclimate. This model is used in conjunction with the recently emerged storyline framework, which involves analyzing the impacts of a particular reference extreme event and comparing them to impacts in plausible counterfactual scenarios under various climate or socio-economic conditions. Using this approach, I introduce three primary storylines that shed light on the complex mechanisms underlying economic loss propagation. In the second and third articles of this thesis, I analyze storylines for the historical Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Harvey (2017) in the USA. For this, I first estimate local economic output losses and then simulate the resulting global economic response with Acclimate. The storyline for Hurricane Sandy thereby focuses on global consumption price anomalies and the resulting changes in consumption. I find that the local economic disruption leads to a global wave-like economic price ripple, with upstream effects propagating in the supplier direction and downstream effects in the buyer direction. Initially, an upstream demand reduction causes consumption price decreases, followed by a downstream supply shortage and increasing prices, before the anomalies decay in a normalization phase. A dominant upstream or downstream effect leads to net consumption gains or losses of a region, respectively. Moreover, I demonstrate that a longer direct economic shock intensifies the downstream effect for many regions, leading to an overall consumption loss. The third article of my thesis builds upon the developed loss estimation method by incorporating projections to future global warming levels. I use these projections to explore how the global production response to Hurricane Harvey would change under further increased global warming. The results show that, while the USA is able to nationally offset direct losses in the reference configuration, other countries have to compensate for increasing shares of counterfactual future losses. This compensation is mainly achieved by large exporting countries, but gradually shifts towards smaller regions. These findings not only highlight the economy's ability to flexibly mitigate disaster losses to a certain extent, but also reveal the vulnerability and economic disadvantage of regions that are exposed to extreme weather events. The storyline in the fourth article of my thesis investigates the interaction between global economic stress and the propagation of losses from weather extremes. I examine indirect impacts of weather extremes — tropical cyclones, heat stress, and river floods — worldwide under two different economic conditions: an unstressed economy and a globally stressed economy, as seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. I demonstrate that the adverse effects of weather extremes on global consumption are strongly amplified when the economy is under stress. Specifically, consumption losses in the USA and China double and triple, respectively, due to the global economy's decreased capacity for disaster loss compensation. An aggravated scarcity intensifies the price response, causing consumption losses to increase. Advancing on the methods and tools used here, the final two articles in my thesis extend the agent-based model Acclimate and formalize the storyline approach. With the model extension described in the fifth article, regional consumers make rational choices on the goods bought such that their utility is maximized under a constrained budget. In an out-of-equilibrium economy, these rational consumers are shown to temporarily increase consumption of certain goods in spite of rising prices. The sixth article of my thesis proposes a formalization of the storyline framework, drawing on multiple studies including storylines presented in this thesis. The proposed guideline defines eight central elements that can be used to construct a storyline. Overall, this thesis contributes towards a better understanding of economic repercussions of weather extremes. It achieves this by providing assessments of local direct impacts, highlighting mechanisms and impacts of loss propagation, and advancing on methods and tools used.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Andjelkovic2021,
  author    = {Andjelkovic, Marko},
  title     = {A methodology for characterization, modeling and mitigation of single event transient effects in CMOS standard combinational cells},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-53484},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-534843},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xxiv, 216},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {With the downscaling of CMOS technologies, the radiation-induced Single Event Transient (SET) effects in combinational logic have become a critical reliability issue for modern integrated circuits (ICs) intended for operation under harsh radiation conditions. The SET pulses generated in combinational logic may propagate through the circuit and eventually result in soft errors. It has thus become an imperative to address the SET effects in the early phases of the radiation-hard IC design. In general, the soft error mitigation solutions should accommodate both static and dynamic measures to ensure the optimal utilization of available resources. An efficient soft-error-aware design should address synergistically three main aspects: (i) characterization and modeling of soft errors, (ii) multi-level soft error mitigation, and (iii) online soft error monitoring. Although significant results have been achieved, the effectiveness of SET characterization methods, accuracy of predictive SET models, and efficiency of SET mitigation measures are still critical issues. Therefore, this work addresses the following topics: (i) Characterization and modeling of SET effects in standard combinational cells, (ii) Static mitigation of SET effects in standard combinational cells, and (iii) Online particle detection, as a support for dynamic soft error mitigation. Since the standard digital libraries are widely used in the design of radiation-hard ICs, the characterization of SET effects in standard cells and the availability of accurate SET models for the Soft Error Rate (SER) evaluation are the main prerequisites for efficient radiation-hard design. This work introduces an approach for the SPICE-based standard cell characterization with the reduced number of simulations, improved SET models and optimized SET sensitivity database. It has been shown that the inherent similarities in the SET response of logic cells for different input levels can be utilized to reduce the number of required simulations. Based on characterization results, the fitting models for the SET sensitivity metrics (critical charge, generated SET pulse width and propagated SET pulse width) have been developed. The proposed models are based on the principle of superposition, and they express explicitly the dependence of the SET sensitivity of individual combinational cells on design, operating and irradiation parameters. In contrast to the state-of-the-art characterization methodologies which employ extensive look-up tables (LUTs) for storing the simulation results, this work proposes the use of LUTs for storing the fitting coefficients of the SET sensitivity models derived from the characterization results. In that way the amount of characterization data in the SET sensitivity database is reduced significantly. The initial step in enhancing the robustness of combinational logic is the application of gate-level mitigation techniques. As a result, significant improvement of the overall SER can be achieved with minimum area, delay and power overheads. For the SET mitigation in standard cells, it is essential to employ the techniques that do not require modifying the cell structure. This work introduces the use of decoupling cells for improving the robustness of standard combinational cells. By insertion of two decoupling cells at the output of a target cell, the critical charge of the cell's output node is increased and the attenuation of short SETs is enhanced. In comparison to the most common gate-level techniques (gate upsizing and gate duplication), the proposed approach provides better SET filtering. However, as there is no single gate-level mitigation technique with optimal performance, a combination of multiple techniques is required. This work introduces a comprehensive characterization of gate-level mitigation techniques aimed to quantify their impact on the SET robustness improvement, as well as introduced area, delay and power overhead per gate. By characterizing the gate-level mitigation techniques together with the standard cells, the required effort in subsequent SER analysis of a target design can be reduced. The characterization database of the hardened standard cells can be utilized as a guideline for selection of the most appropriate mitigation solution for a given design. As a support for dynamic soft error mitigation techniques, it is important to enable the online detection of energetic particles causing the soft errors. This allows activating the power-greedy fault-tolerant configurations based on N-modular redundancy only at the high radiation levels. To enable such a functionality, it is necessary to monitor both the particle flux and the variation of particle LET, as these two parameters contribute significantly to the system SER. In this work, a particle detection approach based on custom-sized pulse stretching inverters is proposed. Employing the pulse stretching inverters connected in parallel enables to measure the particle flux in terms of the number of detected SETs, while the particle LET variations can be estimated from the distribution of SET pulse widths. This approach requires a purely digital processing logic, in contrast to the standard detectors which require complex mixed-signal processing. Besides the possibility of LET monitoring, additional advantages of the proposed particle detector are low detection latency and power consumption, and immunity to error accumulation. The results achieved in this thesis can serve as a basis for establishment of an overall soft-error-aware database for a given digital library, and a comprehensive multi-level radiation-hard design flow that can be implemented with the standard IC design tools. The following step will be to evaluate the achieved results with the irradiation experiments.},
  language  = {en}
}