@phdthesis{Roezer2018,
  author    = {R{\"o}zer, Viktor},
  title     = {Pluvial flood loss to private households},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42991},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-429910},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XXII, 109},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Today, more than half of the world's population lives in urban areas. With a high density of population and assets, urban areas are not only the economic, cultural and social hubs of every society, they are also highly susceptible to natural disasters. As a consequence of rising sea levels and an expected increase in extreme weather events caused by a changing climate in combination with growing cities, flooding is an increasing threat to many urban agglomerations around the globe. To mitigate the destructive consequences of flooding, appropriate risk management and adaptation strategies are required. So far, flood risk management in urban areas is almost exclusively focused on managing river and coastal flooding. Often overlooked is the risk from small-scale rainfall-triggered flooding, where the rainfall intensity of rainstorms exceeds the capacity of urban drainage systems, leading to immediate flooding. Referred to as pluvial flooding, this flood type exclusive to urban areas has caused severe losses in cities around the world. Without further intervention, losses from pluvial flooding are expected to increase in many urban areas due to an increase of impervious surfaces compounded with an aging drainage infrastructure and a projected increase in heavy precipitation events. While this requires the integration of pluvial flood risk into risk management plans, so far little is known about the adverse consequences of pluvial flooding due to a lack of both detailed data sets and studies on pluvial flood impacts. As a consequence, methods for reliably estimating pluvial flood losses, needed for pluvial flood risk assessment, are still missing. Therefore, this thesis investigates how pluvial flood losses to private households can be reliably estimated, based on an improved understanding of the drivers of pluvial flood loss. For this purpose, detailed data from pluvial flood-affected households was collected through structured telephone- and web-surveys following pluvial flood events in Germany and the Netherlands. Pluvial flood losses to households are the result of complex interactions between impact characteristics such as the water depth and a household's resistance as determined by its risk awareness, preparedness, emergency response, building properties and other influencing factors. Both exploratory analysis and machine-learning approaches were used to analyze differences in resistance and impacts between households and their effects on the resulting losses. The comparison of case studies showed that the awareness around pluvial flooding among private households is quite low. Low awareness not only challenges the effective dissemination of early warnings, but was also found to influence the implementation of private precautionary measures. The latter were predominately implemented by households with previous experience of pluvial flooding. Even cases where previous flood events affected a different part of the same city did not lead to an increase in preparedness of the surveyed households, highlighting the need to account for small-scale variability in both impact and resistance parameters when assessing pluvial flood risk. While it was concluded that the combination of low awareness, ineffective early warning and the fact that only a minority of buildings were adapted to pluvial flooding impaired the coping capacities of private households, the often low water levels still enabled households to mitigate or even prevent losses through a timely and effective emergency response. These findings were confirmed by the detection of loss-influencing variables, showing that cases in which households were able to prevent any loss to the building structure are predominately explained by resistance variables such as the household's risk awareness, while the degree of loss is mainly explained by impact variables. Based on the important loss-influencing variables detected, different flood loss models were developed. Similar to flood loss models for river floods, the empirical data from the preceding data collection was used to train flood loss models describing the relationship between impact and resistance parameters and the resulting loss to building structures. Different approaches were adapted from river flood loss models using both models with the water depth as only predictor for building structure loss and models incorporating additional variables from the preceding variable detection routine. The high predictive errors of all compared models showed that point predictions are not suitable for estimating losses on the building level, as they severely impair the reliability of the estimates. For that reason, a new probabilistic framework based on Bayesian inference was introduced that is able to provide predictive distributions instead of single loss estimates. These distributions not only give a range of probable losses, they also provide information on how likely a specific loss value is, representing the uncertainty in the loss estimate. Using probabilistic loss models, it was found that the certainty and reliability of a loss estimate on the building level is not only determined by the use of additional predictors as shown in previous studies, but also by the choice of response distribution defining the shape of the predictive distribution. Here, a mix between a beta and a Bernoulli distribution to account for households that are able to prevent losses to their building's structure was found to provide significantly more certain and reliable estimates than previous approaches using Gaussian or non-parametric response distributions. The successful model transfer and post-event application to estimate building structure loss in Houston, TX, caused by pluvial flooding during Hurricane Harvey confirmed previous findings, and demonstrated the potential of the newly developed multi-variable beta model for future risk assessments. The highly detailed input data set constructed from openly available data sources containing over 304,000 affected buildings in Harris County further showed the potential of data-driven, building-level loss models for pluvial flood risk assessment. In conclusion, pluvial flood losses to private households are the result of complex interactions between impact and resistance variables, which should be represented in loss models. The local occurrence of pluvial floods requires loss estimates on high spatial resolutions, i.e. on the building level, where losses are variable and uncertainties are high. Therefore, probabilistic loss estimates describing the uncertainty of the estimate should be used instead of point predictions. While the performance of probabilistic models on the building level are mainly driven by the choice of response distribution, multi-variable models are recommended for two reasons: First, additional resistance variables improve the detection of cases in which households were able to prevent structural losses. Second, the added variability of additional predictors provides a better representation of the uncertainties when loss estimates from multiple buildings are aggregated. This leads to the conclusion that data-driven probabilistic loss models on the building level allow for a reliable loss estimation at an unprecedented level of detail, with a consistent quantification of uncertainties on all aggregation levels. This makes the presented approach suitable for a wide range of applications, from decision support in spatial planning to impact- based early warning systems.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Braun2023,
  author    = {Braun, Tobias},
  title     = {Recurrences in past climates},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-58690},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-586900},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xxviii, 251},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Our ability to predict the state of a system relies on its tendency to recur to states it has visited before. Recurrence also pervades common intuitions about the systems we are most familiar with: daily routines, social rituals and the return of the seasons are just a few relatable examples. To this end, recurrence plots (RP) provide a systematic framework to quantify the recurrence of states. Despite their conceptual simplicity, they are a versatile tool in the study of observational data. The global climate is a complex system for which an understanding based on observational data is not only of academical relevance, but vital for the predurance of human societies within the planetary boundaries. Contextualizing current global climate change, however, requires observational data far beyond the instrumental period. The palaeoclimate record offers a valuable archive of proxy data but demands methodological approaches that adequately address its complexities. In this regard, the following dissertation aims at devising novel and further developing existing methods in the framework of recurrence analysis (RA). The proposed research questions focus on using RA to capture scale-dependent properties in nonlinear time series and tailoring recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to characterize seasonal variability in palaeoclimate records ('Palaeoseasonality'). In the first part of this thesis, we focus on the methodological development of novel approaches in RA. The predictability of nonlinear (palaeo)climate time series is limited by abrupt transitions between regimes that exhibit entirely different dynamical complexity (e.g. crossing of 'tipping points'). These possibly depend on characteristic time scales. RPs are well-established for detecting transitions and capture scale-dependencies, yet few approaches have combined both aspects. We apply existing concepts from the study of self-similar textures to RPs to detect abrupt transitions, considering the most relevant time scales. This combination of methods further results in the definition of a novel recurrence based nonlinear dependence measure. Quantifying lagged interactions between multiple variables is a common problem, especially in the characterization of high-dimensional complex systems. The proposed 'recurrence flow' measure of nonlinear dependence offers an elegant way to characterize such couplings. For spatially extended complex systems, the coupled dynamics of local variables result in the emergence of spatial patterns. These patterns tend to recur in time. Based on this observation, we propose a novel method that entails dynamically distinct regimes of atmospheric circulation based on their recurrent spatial patterns. Bridging the two parts of this dissertation, we next turn to methodological advances of RA for the study of Palaeoseasonality. Observational series of palaeoclimate 'proxy' records involve inherent limitations, such as irregular temporal sampling. We reveal biases in the RQA of time series with a non-stationary sampling rate and propose a correction scheme. In the second part of this thesis, we proceed with applications in Palaeoseasonality. A review of common and promising time series analysis methods shows that numerous valuable tools exist, but their sound application requires adaptions to archive-specific limitations and consolidating transdisciplinary knowledge. Next, we study stalagmite proxy records from the Central Pacific as sensitive recorders of mid-Holocene El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. The records' remarkably high temporal resolution allows to draw links between ENSO and seasonal dynamics, quantified by RA. The final study presented here examines how seasonal predictability could play a role for the stability of agricultural societies. The Classic Maya underwent a period of sociopolitical disintegration that has been linked to drought events. Based on seasonally resolved stable isotope records from Yok Balum cave in Belize, we propose a measure of seasonal predictability. It unveils the potential role declining seasonal predictability could have played in destabilizing agricultural and sociopolitical systems of Classic Maya populations. The methodological approaches and applications presented in this work reveal multiple exciting future research avenues, both for RA and the study of Palaeoseasonality.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Niemz2022,
  author    = {Niemz, Peter},
  title     = {Imaging and modeling of hydraulic fractures in crystalline rock via induced seismic activity},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-55659},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-556593},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {135},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) are considered a cornerstone of future sustainable energy production. In such systems, high-pressure fluid injections break the rock to provide pathways for water to circulate in and heat up. This approach inherently induces small seismic events that, in rare cases, are felt or can even cause damage. Controlling and reducing the seismic impact of EGS is crucial for a broader public acceptance. To evaluate the applicability of hydraulic fracturing (HF) in EGS and to improve the understanding of fracturing processes and the hydromechanical relation to induced seismicity, six in-situ, meter-scale HF experiments with different injection schemes were performed under controlled conditions in crystalline rock in a depth of 410 m at the {\"A}sp{\"o} Hard Rock Laboratory (Sweden). I developed a semi-automated, full-waveform-based detection, classification, and location workflow to extract and characterize the acoustic emission (AE) activity from the continuous recordings of 11 piezoelectric AE sensors. Based on the resulting catalog of 20,000 AEs, with rupture sizes of cm to dm, I mapped and characterized the fracture growth in great detail. The injection using a novel cyclic injection scheme (HF3) had a lower seismic impact than the conventional injections. HF3 induced fewer AEs with a reduced maximum magnitude and significantly larger b-values, implying a decreased number of large events relative to the number of small ones. Furthermore, HF3 showed an increased fracture complexity with multiple fractures or a fracture network. In contrast, the conventional injections developed single, planar fracture zones (Publication 1). An independent, complementary approach based on a comparison of modeled and observed tilt exploits transient long-period signals recorded at the horizontal components of two broad-band seismometers a few tens of meters apart from the injections. It validated the efficient creation of hydraulic fractures and verified the AE-based fracture geometries. The innovative joint analysis of AEs and tilt signals revealed different phases of the fracturing process, including the (re-)opening, growth, and aftergrowth of fractures, and provided evidence for the reactivation of a preexisting fault in one of the experiments (Publication 2). A newly developed network-based waveform-similarity analysis applied to the massive AE activity supports the latter finding. To validate whether the reduction of the seismic impact as observed for the cyclic injection schemes during the {\"A}sp{\"o} mine-scale experiments is transferable to other scales, I additionally calculated energy budgets for injection experiments from previously conducted laboratory tests and from a field application. Across all three scales, the cyclic injections reduce the seismic impact, as depicted by smaller maximum magnitudes, larger b-values, and decreased injection efficiencies (Publication 3).},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Angermann2018,
  author    = {Angermann, Lisa},
  title     = {Hillslope-stream connectivity across scales},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42454},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-424542},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xix, 193},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {The concept of hydrologic connectivity summarizes all flow processes that link separate regions of a landscape. As such, it is a central theme in the field of catchment hydrology, with influence on neighboring disciplines such as ecology and geomorphology. It is widely acknowledged to be an important key in understanding the response behavior of a catchment and has at the same time inspired research on internal processes over a broad range of scales. From this process-hydrological point of view, hydrological connectivity is the conceptual framework to link local observations across space and scales. This is the context in which the four studies this thesis comprises of were conducted. The focus was on structures and their spatial organization as important control on preferential subsurface flow. Each experiment covered a part of the conceptualized flow path from hillslopes to the stream: soil profile, hillslope, riparian zone, and stream. For each study site, the most characteristic structures of the investigated domain and scale, such as slope deposits and peat layers were identified based on preliminary or previous investigations or literature reviews. Additionally, further structural data was collected and topographical analyses were carried out. Flow processes were observed either based on response observations (soil moisture changes or discharge patterns) or direct measurement (advective heat transport). Based on these data, the flow-relevance of the characteristic structures was evaluated, especially with regard to hillslope to stream connectivity. Results of the four studies revealed a clear relationship between characteristic spatial structures and the hydrological behavior of the catchment. Especially the spatial distribution of structures throughout the study domain and their interconnectedness were crucial for the establishment of preferential flow paths and their relevance for large-scale processes. Plot and hillslope-scale irrigation experiments showed that the macropores of a heterogeneous, skeletal soil enabled preferential flow paths at the scale of centimeters through the otherwise unsaturated soil. These flow paths connected throughout the soil column and across the hillslope and facilitated substantial amounts of vertical and lateral flow through periglacial slope deposits. In the riparian zone of the same headwater catchment, the connectivity between hillslopes and stream was controlled by topography and the dualism between characteristic subsurface structures and the geomorphological heterogeneity of the stream channel. At the small scale (1 m to 10 m) highest gains always occurred at steps along the longitudinal streambed profile, which also controlled discharge patterns at the large scale (100 m) during base flow conditions (number of steps per section). During medium and high flow conditions, however, the impact of topography and parafluvial flow through riparian zone structures prevailed and dominated the large-scale response patterns. In the streambed of a lowland river, low permeability peat layers affected the connectivity between surface water and groundwater, but also between surface water and the hyporheic zone. The crucial factor was not the permeability of the streambed itself, but rather the spatial arrangement of flow-impeding peat layers, causing increased vertical flow through narrow "windows" in contrast to predominantly lateral flow in extended areas of high hydraulic conductivity sediments. These results show that the spatial organization of structures was an important control for hydrological processes at all scales and study areas. In a final step, the observations from different scales and catchment elements were put in relation and compared. The main focus was on the theoretical analysis of the scale hierarchies of structures and processes and the direction of causal dependencies in this context. Based on the resulting hierarchical structure, a conceptual framework was developed which is capable of representing the system's complexity while allowing for adequate simplifications. The resulting concept of the parabolic scale series is based on the insight that flow processes in the terrestrial part of the catchment (soil and hillslopes) converge. This means that small-scale processes assemble and form large-scale processes and responses. Processes in the riparian zone and the streambed, however, are not well represented by the idea of convergence. Here, the large-scale catchment signal arrives and is modified by structures in the riparian zone, stream morphology, and the small-scale interactions between surface water and groundwater. Flow paths diverge and processes can better be represented by proceeding from large scales to smaller ones. The catchment-scale representation of processes and structures is thus the conceptual link between terrestrial hillslope processes and processes in the riparian corridor.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Kiss2024,
  author    = {Kiss, Andrea},
  title     = {Moss-associated bacterial and archaeal communities of northern peatlands: key taxa, environmental drivers and potential functions},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-63064},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-630641},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XX, 139, liv},
  year      = {2024},
  abstract  = {Moss-microbe associations are often characterised by syntrophic interactions between the microorganisms and their hosts, but the structure of the microbial consortia and their role in peatland development remain unknown. In order to study microbial communities of dominant peatland mosses, Sphagnum and brown mosses, and the respective environmental drivers, four study sites representing different successional stages of natural northern peatlands were chosen on a large geographical scale: two brown moss-dominated, circumneutral peatlands from the Arctic and two Sphagnum-dominated, acidic peat bogs from subarctic and temperate zones. The family Acetobacteraceae represented the dominant bacterial taxon of Sphagnum mosses from various geographical origins and displayed an integral part of the moss core community. This core community was shared among all investigated bryophytes and consisted of few but highly abundant prokaryotes, of which many appear as endophytes of Sphagnum mosses. Moreover, brown mosses and Sphagnum mosses represent habitats for archaea which were not studied in association with peatland mosses so far. Euryarchaeota that are capable of methane production (methanogens) displayed the majority of the moss-associated archaeal communities. Moss-associated methanogenesis was detected for the first time, but it was mostly negligible under laboratory conditions. Contrarily, substantial moss-associated methane oxidation was measured on both, brown mosses and Sphagnum mosses, supporting that methanotrophic bacteria as part of the moss microbiome may contribute to the reduction of methane emissions from pristine and rewetted peatlands of the northern hemisphere. Among the investigated abiotic and biotic environmental parameters, the peatland type and the host moss taxon were identified to have a major impact on the structure of moss-associated bacterial communities, contrarily to archaeal communities whose structures were similar among the investigated bryophytes. For the first time it was shown that different bog development stages harbour distinct bacterial communities, while at the same time a small core community is shared among all investigated bryophytes independent of geography and peatland type. The present thesis displays the first large-scale, systematic assessment of bacterial and archaeal communities associated both with brown mosses and Sphagnum mosses. It suggests that some host-specific moss taxa have the potential to play a key role in host moss establishment and peatland development.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Khosravi2023,
  author    = {Khosravi, Sara},
  title     = {The effect of new turbulence parameterizations for the stable surface layer on simulations of the Arctic climate},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-64352},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-643520},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XIV, 119},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Arctic climate change is marked by intensified warming compared to global trends and a significant reduction in Arctic sea ice which can intricately influence mid-latitude atmospheric circulation through tropo- and stratospheric pathways. Achieving accurate simulations of current and future climate demands a realistic representation of Arctic climate processes in numerical climate models, which remains challenging. Model deficiencies in replicating observed Arctic climate processes often arise due to inadequacies in representing turbulent boundary layer interactions that determine the interactions between the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. Many current climate models rely on parameterizations developed for mid-latitude conditions to handle Arctic turbulent boundary layer processes. This thesis focuses on modified representation of the Arctic atmospheric processes and understanding their resulting impact on large-scale mid-latitude atmospheric circulation within climate models. The improved turbulence parameterizations, recently developed based on Arctic measurements, were implemented in the global atmospheric circulation model ECHAM6. This involved modifying the stability functions over sea ice and ocean for stable stratification and changing the roughness length over sea ice for all stratification conditions. Comprehensive analyses are conducted to assess the impacts of these modifications on ECHAM6's simulations of the Arctic boundary layer, overall atmospheric circulation, and the dynamical pathways between the Arctic and mid-latitudes. Through a step-wise implementation of the mentioned parameterizations into ECHAM6, a series of sensitivity experiments revealed that the combined impacts of the reduced roughness length and the modified stability functions are non-linear. Nevertheless, it is evident that both modifications consistently lead to a general decrease in the heat transfer coefficient, being in close agreement with the observations. Additionally, compared to the reference observations, the ECHAM6 model falls short in accurately representing unstable and strongly stable conditions. The less frequent occurrence of strong stability restricts the influence of the modified stability functions by reducing the affected sample size. However, when focusing solely on the specific instances of a strongly stable atmosphere, the sensible heat flux approaches near-zero values, which is in line with the observations. Models employing commonly used surface turbulence parameterizations were shown to have difficulties replicating the near-zero sensible heat flux in strongly stable stratification. I also found that these limited changes in surface layer turbulence parameterizations have a statistically significant impact on the temperature and wind patterns across multiple pressure levels, including the stratosphere, in both the Arctic and mid-latitudes. These significant signals vary in strength, extent, and direction depending on the specific month or year, indicating a strong reliance on the background state. Furthermore, this research investigates how the modified surface turbulence parameterizations may influence the response of both stratospheric and tropospheric circulation to Arctic sea ice loss. The most suitable parameterizations for accurately representing Arctic boundary layer turbulence were identified from the sensitivity experiments. Subsequently, the model's response to sea ice loss is evaluated through extended ECHAM6 simulations with different prescribed sea ice conditions. The simulation with adjusted surface turbulence parameterizations better reproduced the observed Arctic tropospheric warming in vertical extent, demonstrating improved alignment with the reanalysis data. Additionally, unlike the control experiments, this simulation successfully reproduced specific circulation patterns linked to the stratospheric pathway for Arctic-mid-latitude linkages. Specifically, an increased occurrence of the Scandinavian-Ural blocking regime (negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation) in early (late) winter is observed. Overall, it can be inferred that improving turbulence parameterizations at the surface layer can improve the ECHAM6's response to sea ice loss.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Damseaux2024,
  author    = {Damseaux, Adrien},
  title     = {Improving permafrost dynamics in land surface models: insights from dual sensitivity experiments},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-63945},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-639450},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xiii, 143},
  year      = {2024},
  abstract  = {The thawing of permafrost and the subsequent release of greenhouse gases constitute one of the most significant and uncertain positive feedback loops in the context of climate change, making predictions regarding changes in permafrost coverage of paramount importance. To address these critical questions, climate scientists have developed Land Surface Models (LSMs) that encompass a multitude of physical soil processes. This thesis is committed to advancing our understanding and refining precise representations of permafrost dynamics within LSMs, with a specific focus on the accurate modeling of heat fluxes, an essential component for simulating permafrost physics. The first research question overviews fundamental model prerequisites for the representation of permafrost soils within land surface modeling. It includes a first-of-its-kind comparison between LSMs in CMIP6 to reveal their differences and shortcomings in key permafrost physics parameters. Overall, each of these LSMs represents a unique approach to simulating soil processes and their interactions with the climate system. Choosing the most appropriate model for a particular application depends on factors such as the spatial and temporal scale of the simulation, the specific research question, and available computational resources. The second research question evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Community Land Model (CLM5) in simulating Arctic permafrost regions. Our approach overcomes traditional evaluation limitations by individually addressing depth, seasonality, and regional variations, providing a comprehensive assessment of permafrost and soil temperature dynamics. I compare CLM5's results with three extensive datasets: (1) soil temperatures from 295 borehole stations, (2) active layer thickness (ALT) data from the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Network (CALM), and (3) soil temperatures, ALT, and permafrost extent from the ESA Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI). The results show that CLM5 aligns well with ESA-CCI and CALM for permafrost extent and ALT but reveals a significant global cold temperature bias, notably over Siberia. These results echo a persistent challenge identified in numerous studies: the existence of a systematic 'cold bias' in soil temperature over permafrost regions. To address this challenge, the following research questions propose dual sensitivity experiments. The third research question represents the first study to apply a Plant Functional Type (PFT)-based approach to derive soil texture and soil organic matter (SOM), departing from the conventional use of coarse-resolution global data in LSMs. This novel method results in a more uniform distribution of soil organic matter density (OMD) across the domain, characterized by reduced OMD values in most regions. However, changes in soil texture exhibit a more intricate spatial pattern. Comparing the results to observations reveals a significant reduction in the cold bias observed in the control run. This method shows noticeable improvements in permafrost extent, but at the cost of an overestimation in ALT. These findings emphasize the model's high sensitivity to variations in soil texture and SOM content, highlighting the crucial role of soil composition in governing heat transfer processes and shaping the seasonal variation of soil temperatures in permafrost regions. Expanding upon a site experiment conducted in Trail Valley Creek by \citet{dutch_impact_2022}, the fourth research question extends the application of the snow scheme proposed by \citet{sturm_thermal_1997} to cover the entire Arctic domain. By employing a snow scheme better suited to the snow density profile observed over permafrost regions, this thesis seeks to assess its influence on simulated soil temperatures. Comparing this method to observational datasets reveals a significant reduction in the cold bias that was present in the control run. In most regions, the Sturm run exhibits a substantial decrease in the cold bias. However, there is a distinctive overshoot with a warm bias observed in mountainous areas. The Sturm experiment effectively addressed the overestimation of permafrost extent in the control run, albeit resulting in a substantial reduction in permafrost extent over mountainous areas. ALT results remain relatively consistent compared to the control run. These outcomes align with our initial hypothesis, which anticipated that the reduced snow insulation in the Sturm run would lead to higher winter soil temperatures and a more accurate representation of permafrost physics. In summary, this thesis demonstrates significant advancements in understanding permafrost dynamics and its integration into LSMs. It has meticulously unraveled the intricacies involved in the interplay between heat transfer, soil properties, and snow dynamics in permafrost regions. These insights offer novel perspectives on model representation and performance.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Zeitz2022,
  author    = {Zeitz, Maria},
  title     = {Modeling the future resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-56883},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-568839},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {x, 189},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {The Greenland Ice Sheet is the second-largest mass of ice on Earth. Being almost 2000 km long, more than 700 km wide, and more than 3 km thick at the summit, it holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 7m if melted completely. Despite its massive size, it is particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change: temperatures over the Greenland Ice Sheet have increased by more than 2.7◦C in the past 30 years, twice as much as the global mean temperature. Consequently, the ice sheet has been significantly losing mass since the 1980s and the rate of loss has increased sixfold since then. Moreover, it is one of the potential tipping elements of the Earth System, which might undergo irreversible change once a warming threshold is exceeded. This thesis aims at extending the understanding of the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet against global warming by analyzing processes and feedbacks relevant to its centennial to multi-millennial stability using ice sheet modeling. One of these feedbacks, the melt-elevation-feedback is driven by the temperature rise with decreasing altitudes: As the ice sheet melts, its thickness and surface elevation decrease, exposing the ice surface to warmer air and thus increasing the melt rates even further. The glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) can partly mitigate this melt-elevation feedback as the bedrock lifts in response to an ice load decrease, forming the negative GIA feedback. In my thesis, I show that the interaction between these two competing feedbacks can lead to qualitatively different dynamical responses of the Greenland Ice Sheet to warming - from permanent loss to incomplete recovery, depending on the feedback parameters. My research shows that the interaction of those feedbacks can initiate self-sustained oscillations of the ice volume while the climate forcing remains constant. Furthermore, the increased surface melt changes the optical properties of the snow or ice surface, e.g. by lowering their albedo, which in turn enhances melt rates - a process known as the melt-albedo feedback. Process-based ice sheet models often neglect this melt-albedo feedback. To close this gap, I implemented a simplified version of the diurnal Energy Balance Model, a computationally efficient approach that can capture the first-order effects of the melt-albedo feedback, into the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). Using the coupled model, I show in warming experiments that the melt-albedo feedback almost doubles the ice loss until the year 2300 under the low greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP2.6, compared to simulations where the melt-albedo feedback is neglected, and adds up to 58\% additional ice loss under the high emission scenario RCP8.5. Moreover, I find that the melt-albedo feedback dominates the ice loss until 2300, compared to the melt-elevation feedback. Another process that could influence the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet is the warming induced softening of the ice and the resulting increase in flow. In my thesis, I show with PISM how the uncertainty in Glen's flow law impacts the simulated response to warming. In a flow line setup at fixed climatic mass balance, the uncertainty in flow parameters leads to a range of ice loss comparable to the range caused by different warming levels. While I focus on fundamental processes, feedbacks, and their interactions in the first three projects of my thesis, I also explore the impact of specific climate scenarios on the sea level rise contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet. To increase the carbon budget flexibility, some warming scenarios - while still staying within the limits of the Paris Agreement - include a temporal overshoot of global warming. I show that an overshoot by 0.4◦C increases the short-term and long-term ice loss from Greenland by several centimeters. The long-term increase is driven by the warming at high latitudes, which persists even when global warming is reversed. This leads to a substantial long-term commitment of the sea level rise contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Overall, in my thesis I show that the melt-albedo feedback is most relevant for the ice loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet on centennial timescales. In contrast, the melt-elevation feedback and its interplay with the GIA feedback become increasingly relevant on millennial timescales. All of these influence the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet against global warming, in the near future and on the long term.},
  language  = {en}
}