@phdthesis{Khosravi2023,
  author    = {Khosravi, Sara},
  title     = {The effect of new turbulence parameterizations for the stable surface layer on simulations of the Arctic climate},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-64352},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-643520},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XIV, 119},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Arctic climate change is marked by intensified warming compared to global trends and a significant reduction in Arctic sea ice which can intricately influence mid-latitude atmospheric circulation through tropo- and stratospheric pathways. Achieving accurate simulations of current and future climate demands a realistic representation of Arctic climate processes in numerical climate models, which remains challenging. Model deficiencies in replicating observed Arctic climate processes often arise due to inadequacies in representing turbulent boundary layer interactions that determine the interactions between the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. Many current climate models rely on parameterizations developed for mid-latitude conditions to handle Arctic turbulent boundary layer processes. This thesis focuses on modified representation of the Arctic atmospheric processes and understanding their resulting impact on large-scale mid-latitude atmospheric circulation within climate models. The improved turbulence parameterizations, recently developed based on Arctic measurements, were implemented in the global atmospheric circulation model ECHAM6. This involved modifying the stability functions over sea ice and ocean for stable stratification and changing the roughness length over sea ice for all stratification conditions. Comprehensive analyses are conducted to assess the impacts of these modifications on ECHAM6's simulations of the Arctic boundary layer, overall atmospheric circulation, and the dynamical pathways between the Arctic and mid-latitudes. Through a step-wise implementation of the mentioned parameterizations into ECHAM6, a series of sensitivity experiments revealed that the combined impacts of the reduced roughness length and the modified stability functions are non-linear. Nevertheless, it is evident that both modifications consistently lead to a general decrease in the heat transfer coefficient, being in close agreement with the observations. Additionally, compared to the reference observations, the ECHAM6 model falls short in accurately representing unstable and strongly stable conditions. The less frequent occurrence of strong stability restricts the influence of the modified stability functions by reducing the affected sample size. However, when focusing solely on the specific instances of a strongly stable atmosphere, the sensible heat flux approaches near-zero values, which is in line with the observations. Models employing commonly used surface turbulence parameterizations were shown to have difficulties replicating the near-zero sensible heat flux in strongly stable stratification. I also found that these limited changes in surface layer turbulence parameterizations have a statistically significant impact on the temperature and wind patterns across multiple pressure levels, including the stratosphere, in both the Arctic and mid-latitudes. These significant signals vary in strength, extent, and direction depending on the specific month or year, indicating a strong reliance on the background state. Furthermore, this research investigates how the modified surface turbulence parameterizations may influence the response of both stratospheric and tropospheric circulation to Arctic sea ice loss. The most suitable parameterizations for accurately representing Arctic boundary layer turbulence were identified from the sensitivity experiments. Subsequently, the model's response to sea ice loss is evaluated through extended ECHAM6 simulations with different prescribed sea ice conditions. The simulation with adjusted surface turbulence parameterizations better reproduced the observed Arctic tropospheric warming in vertical extent, demonstrating improved alignment with the reanalysis data. Additionally, unlike the control experiments, this simulation successfully reproduced specific circulation patterns linked to the stratospheric pathway for Arctic-mid-latitude linkages. Specifically, an increased occurrence of the Scandinavian-Ural blocking regime (negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation) in early (late) winter is observed. Overall, it can be inferred that improving turbulence parameterizations at the surface layer can improve the ECHAM6's response to sea ice loss.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Brenner2022,
  author    = {Brenner, Andri Caspar},
  title     = {Sustainable urban growth},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-55522},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-555223},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {231},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {This dissertation explores the determinants for sustainable and socially optimalgrowth in a city. Two general equilibrium models establish the base for this evaluation, each adding its puzzle piece to the urban sustainability discourse and examining the role of non-market-based and market-based policies for balanced growth and welfare improvements in different theory settings. Sustainable urban growth either calls for policy actions or a green energy transition. Further, R\&D market failures can pose severe challenges to the sustainability of urban growth and the social optimality of decentralized allocation decisions. Still, a careful (holistic) combination of policy instruments can achieve sustainable growth and even be first best.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Folikumah2022,
  author    = {Folikumah, Makafui Yao},
  title     = {Stimuli-promoted in situ formation of hydrogels with thiol/thioester containing peptide precursors},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-56971},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-569713},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {159},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Hydrogels are potential synthetic ECM-like substitutes since they provide functional and structural similarities compared to soft tissues. They can be prepared by crosslinking of macromolecules or by polymerizing suitable precursors. The crosslinks are not necessarily covalent bonds, but could also be formed by physical interactions such as π-π interactions, hydrophobic interactions, or H-bonding. On demand in situ forming hydrogels have garnered increased interest especially for biomedical applications over preformed gels due to the relative ease of in vivo delivery and filling of cavities. The thiol-Michael addition reaction provides a straightforward and robust strategy for in situ gel formation with its fast reaction kinetics and ability to proceed under physiological conditions. The incorporation of a trigger function into a crosslinking system becomes even more interesting since gelling can be controlled with stimulus of choice. The use of small molar mass crosslinker precursors with active groups orthogonal to thiol-Michael reaction type electrophile provides the opportunity to implement an on-demand in situ crosslinking without compromising the fast reaction kinetics. It was postulated that short peptide sequences due to the broad range structural-function relations available with the different constituent amino acids, can be exploited for the realisation of stimuli-promoted in situ covalent crosslinking and gelation applications. The advantages of this system over conventional polymer-polymer hydrogel systems are the ability tune and predict material property at the molecular level. The main aim of this work was to develop a simplified and biologically-friendly stimuli-promoted in situ crosslinking and hydrogelation system using peptide mimetics as latent crosslinkers. The approach aims at using a single thiodepsipeptide sequence to achieve separate pH- and enzyme-promoted gelation systems with little modification to the thiodepsipeptide sequence. The realization of this aim required the completion of three milestones. In the first place, after deciding on the thiol-Michael reaction as an effective in situ crosslinking strategy, a thiodepsipeptide, Ac-Pro-Leu-Gly-SLeu-Leu-Gly-NEtSH (TDP) with expected propensity towards pH-dependent thiol-thioester exchange (TTE) activation, was proposed as a suitable crosslinker precursor for pH-promoted gelation system. Prior to the synthesis of the proposed peptide-mimetic, knowledge of the thiol-Michael reactivity of the would-be activated thiol moiety SH-Leu, which is internally embedded in the thiodepsipeptide was required. In line with pKa requirements for a successful TTE, the reactivity of a more acidic thiol, SH-Phe was also investigated to aid the selection of the best thiol to be incorporated in the thioester bearing peptide based crosslinker precursor. Using 'pseudo' 2D-NMR investigations, it was found that only reactions involving SH-Leu yielded the expected thiol-Michael product, an observation that was attributed to the steric hindrance of the bulkier nature of SH-Phe. The fast reaction rates and complete acrylate/maleimide conversion obtained with SH-Leu at pH 7.2 and higher aided the direct elimination of SH-Phe as a potential thiol for the synthesis of the peptide mimetic. Based on the initial studies, for the pH-promoted gelation system, the proposed Ac-Pro-Leu-Gly-SLeu-Leu-Gly-NEtSH was kept unmodified. The subtle difference in pKa values between SH-Leu (thioester thiol) and the terminal cysteamine thiol from theoretical conditions should be enough to effect a 'pseudo' intramolecular TTE. In polar protic solvents and under basic aqueous conditions, TDP successfully undergoes a 'pseudo' intramolecular TTE reaction to yield an α,ω-dithiol tripeptide, HSLeu-Leu-Gly-NEtSH. The pH dependence of thiolate ion generation by the cysteamine thiol aided the incorporation of the needed stimulus (pH) for the overall success of TTE (activation step) - thiol-Michael addition (crosslinking) strategy. Secondly, with potential biomedical applications in focus, the susceptibility of TDP, like other thioesters, to intermolecular TTE reaction was probed with a group of thiols of varying thiol pKa values, since biological milieu characteristically contain peptide/protein thiols. L-cysteine, which is a biologically relevant thiol, and a small molecular weight thiol, methylthioglycolate both with relatively similar thiol pKa, values, led to an increase concentration of the dithiol crosslinker when reacted with TDP. In the presence of acidic thiols (p-NTP and 4MBA), a decrease in the dithiol concentration was observed, an observation that can be attributed to the inability of the TTE tetrahedral intermediate to dissociate into exchange products and is in line with pKa requirements for successful TTE reaction. These results additionally makes TDP more attractive and the potentially the first crosslinker precursor for applications in biologically relevant media. Finally, the ability of TDP to promote pH-sensitive in situ gel formation was probed with maleimide functionalized 4-arm polyethylene glycol polymers in tris-buffered media of varying pHs. When a 1:1 thiol: maleimide molar ratio was used, TDP-PEG4MAL hydrogels formed within 3, 12 and 24 hours at pH values of 8.5, 8.0 and 7.5 respectively. However, gelation times of 3, 5 and 30 mins were observed for the same pH trend when the thiol: maleimide molar was increased to 2:1. A direct correlation of thiol content with G' of the gels at each pH could also be drawn by comparing gels with thiol: maleimide ratios of 1:1 to those with 2:1 thiol: maleimide mole ratios. This is supported by the fact that the storage modulus (G') is linearly dependent on the crosslinking density of the polymer. The values of initial G′ for all gels ranged between (200 - 5000 Pa), which falls in the range of elasticities of certain tissue microenvironments for example brain tissue 200 - 1000 Pa and adipose tissue (2500 - 3500 Pa). Knowledge so far gained from the study on the ability to design and tune the exchange reaction of thioester containing peptide mimetic will give those working in the field further insight into the development of new sequences tailored towards specific applications. TTE substrate design using peptide mimetic as presented in this work has revealed interesting new insights considering the state-of-the-art. Using the results obtained as reference, the strategy provides a possibility to extend the concept to the controlled delivery of active molecules needed for other robust and high yielding crosslinking reactions for biomedical applications. Application for this sequentially coupled functional system could be seen e.g. in the treatment of inflamed tissues associated with urinary tract like bladder infections for which pH levels above 7 were reported. By the inclusion of cell adhesion peptide motifs, the hydrogel network formed at this pH could act as a new support layer for the healing of damage epithelium as shown in interfacial gel formation experiments using TDP and PEG4MAL droplets. The versatility of the thiodepsipeptide sequence, Ac-Pro-Leu-Gly-SLeu-Leu-Gly-(TDPo) was extended for the design and synthesis of a MMP-sensitive 4-arm PEG-TDPo conjugate. The purported cleavage of TDPo at the Gly-SLeu bond yields active thiol units for subsequent reaction of orthogonal Michael acceptor moieties. One of the advantages of stimuli-promoted in situ crosslinking systems using short peptides should be the ease of design of required peptide molecules due to the predictability of peptide functions their sequence structure. Consequently the functionalisation of a 4-arm PEG core with the collagenase active TDPo sequence yielded an MMP-sensitive 4-arm thiodepsipeptide-PEG conjugate (PEG4TDPo) substrate. Cleavage studies using thiol flourometric assay in the presence of MMPs -2 and -9 confirmed the susceptibility of PEG4TDPo towards these enzymes. The resulting time-dependent increase in fluorescence intensity in the presence of thiol assay signifies the successful cleavage of TDPo at the Gly-SLeu bond as expected. It was observed that the cleavage studies with thiol flourometric assay introduces a sigmoid non-Michaelis-Menten type kinetic profile, hence making it difficult to accurately determine the enzyme cycling parameters, kcat and KM . Gelation studies with PEG4MAL at 10 \% wt. concentrations revealed faster gelation with MMP-2 than MMP-9 with 28 and 40 min gelation times respectively. Possible contributions by hydrolytic cleavage of PEG4TDPo has resulted in the gelation of PEG4MAL blank samples but only after 60 minutes of reaction. From theoretical considerations, the simultaneous gelation reaction would be expected to more negatively impact the enzymatic than hydrolytic cleavage. The exact contributions from hydrolytic cleavage of PEG4TDPo would however require additional studies. In summary this new and simplified in situ crosslinking system using peptide-based crosslinker precursors with tuneable properties exhibited in situ crosslinking gelation kinetics on similar levels with already active dithiols reported. The advantageous on-demand functionality associated with its pH-sensitivity and physiological compatibility makes it a strong candidate worth further research as biomedical applications in general and on-demand material synthesis is concerned. Results from MMP-promoted gelation system unveils a simple but unexplored approach for in situ synthesis of covalently crosslinked soft materials, that could lead to the development of an alternative pathway in addressing cancer metastasis by making use of MMP overexpression as a trigger. This goal has so far not being reach with MMP inhibitors despite the extensive work this regard.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{IlićPetković2023,
  author    = {Ilić Petković, Nikoleta},
  title     = {Stars under influence: evidence of tidal interactions between stars and substellar companions},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-61597},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-615972},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xi, 137},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Tidal interactions occur between gravitationally bound astrophysical bodies. If their spatial separation is sufficiently small, the bodies can induce tides on each other, leading to angular momentum transfer and altering of evolutionary path the bodies would have followed if they were single objects. The tidal processes are well established in the Solar planet-moon systems and close stellar binary systems. However, how do stars behave if they are orbited by a substellar companion (e.g. a planet or a brown dwarf) on a tight orbit? Typically, a substellar companion inside the corotation radius of a star will migrate toward the star as it loses orbital angular momentum. On the other hand, the star will gain angular momentum which has the potential to increase its rotation rate. The effect should be more pronounced if the substellar companion is more massive. As the stellar rotation rate and the magnetic activity level are coupled, the star should appear more magnetically active under the tidal influence of the orbiting substellar companion. However, the difficulty in proving that a star has a higher magnetic activity level due to tidal interactions lies in the fact that (I) substellar companions around active stars are easier to detect if they are more massive, leading to a bias toward massive companions around active stars and mimicking the tidal interaction effect, and that (II) the age of a main-sequence star cannot be easily determined, leaving the possibility that a star is more active due to its young age. In our work, we overcome these issues by employing wide stellar binary systems where one star hosts a substellar companion, and where the other star provides the magnetic activity baseline for the host star, assuming they have coevolved, and thereby provides the host's activity level if tidal interactions have no effect on it. Firstly, we find that extrasolar planets can noticeably increase the host star's X-ray luminosity and that the effect is more pronounced if the exoplanet is at least Jupiter-like in mass and close to the star. Further, we find that a brown dwarf will have an even stronger effect, as expected, and that the X-ray surface flux difference between the host star and the wide stellar companion is a significant outlier when compared to a large sample of similar wide binary systems without any known substellar companions. This result proves that substellar hosting wide binary systems can be good tools to reveal the tidal effect on host stars, and also show that the typical stellar age indicators as activity or rotation cannot be used for these stars. Finally, knowing that the activity difference is a good tracer of the substellar companion's tidal impact, we develop an analytical method to calculate the modified tidal quality factor Q' of individual host stars, which defines the tidal dissipation efficiency in the convective envelope of a given main-sequence star.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Braun2023,
  author    = {Braun, Tobias},
  title     = {Recurrences in past climates},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-58690},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-586900},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xxviii, 251},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Our ability to predict the state of a system relies on its tendency to recur to states it has visited before. Recurrence also pervades common intuitions about the systems we are most familiar with: daily routines, social rituals and the return of the seasons are just a few relatable examples. To this end, recurrence plots (RP) provide a systematic framework to quantify the recurrence of states. Despite their conceptual simplicity, they are a versatile tool in the study of observational data. The global climate is a complex system for which an understanding based on observational data is not only of academical relevance, but vital for the predurance of human societies within the planetary boundaries. Contextualizing current global climate change, however, requires observational data far beyond the instrumental period. The palaeoclimate record offers a valuable archive of proxy data but demands methodological approaches that adequately address its complexities. In this regard, the following dissertation aims at devising novel and further developing existing methods in the framework of recurrence analysis (RA). The proposed research questions focus on using RA to capture scale-dependent properties in nonlinear time series and tailoring recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to characterize seasonal variability in palaeoclimate records ('Palaeoseasonality'). In the first part of this thesis, we focus on the methodological development of novel approaches in RA. The predictability of nonlinear (palaeo)climate time series is limited by abrupt transitions between regimes that exhibit entirely different dynamical complexity (e.g. crossing of 'tipping points'). These possibly depend on characteristic time scales. RPs are well-established for detecting transitions and capture scale-dependencies, yet few approaches have combined both aspects. We apply existing concepts from the study of self-similar textures to RPs to detect abrupt transitions, considering the most relevant time scales. This combination of methods further results in the definition of a novel recurrence based nonlinear dependence measure. Quantifying lagged interactions between multiple variables is a common problem, especially in the characterization of high-dimensional complex systems. The proposed 'recurrence flow' measure of nonlinear dependence offers an elegant way to characterize such couplings. For spatially extended complex systems, the coupled dynamics of local variables result in the emergence of spatial patterns. These patterns tend to recur in time. Based on this observation, we propose a novel method that entails dynamically distinct regimes of atmospheric circulation based on their recurrent spatial patterns. Bridging the two parts of this dissertation, we next turn to methodological advances of RA for the study of Palaeoseasonality. Observational series of palaeoclimate 'proxy' records involve inherent limitations, such as irregular temporal sampling. We reveal biases in the RQA of time series with a non-stationary sampling rate and propose a correction scheme. In the second part of this thesis, we proceed with applications in Palaeoseasonality. A review of common and promising time series analysis methods shows that numerous valuable tools exist, but their sound application requires adaptions to archive-specific limitations and consolidating transdisciplinary knowledge. Next, we study stalagmite proxy records from the Central Pacific as sensitive recorders of mid-Holocene El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. The records' remarkably high temporal resolution allows to draw links between ENSO and seasonal dynamics, quantified by RA. The final study presented here examines how seasonal predictability could play a role for the stability of agricultural societies. The Classic Maya underwent a period of sociopolitical disintegration that has been linked to drought events. Based on seasonally resolved stable isotope records from Yok Balum cave in Belize, we propose a measure of seasonal predictability. It unveils the potential role declining seasonal predictability could have played in destabilizing agricultural and sociopolitical systems of Classic Maya populations. The methodological approaches and applications presented in this work reveal multiple exciting future research avenues, both for RA and the study of Palaeoseasonality.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Wendi2018,
  author    = {Wendi, Dadiyorto},
  title     = {Recurrence Plots and Quantification Analysis of Flood Runoff Dynamics},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-43191},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-431915},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {114},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {This paper introduces a novel measure to assess similarity between event hydrographs. It is based on Cross Recurrence Plots and Recurrence Quantification Analysis which have recently gained attention in a range of disciplines when dealing with complex systems. The method attempts to quantify the event runoff dynamics and is based on the time delay embedded phase space representation of discharge hydrographs. A phase space trajectory is reconstructed from the event hydrograph, and pairs of hydrographs are compared to each other based on the distance of their phase space trajectories. Time delay embedding allows considering the multi-dimensional relationships between different points in time within the event. Hence, the temporal succession of discharge values is taken into account, such as the impact of the initial conditions on the runoff event. We provide an introduction to Cross Recurrence Plots and discuss their parameterization. An application example based on flood time series demonstrates how the method can be used to measure the similarity or dissimilarity of events, and how it can be used to detect events with rare runoff dynamics. It is argued that this methods provides a more comprehensive approach to quantify hydrograph similarity compared to conventional hydrological signatures.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Roezer2018,
  author    = {R{\"o}zer, Viktor},
  title     = {Pluvial flood loss to private households},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42991},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-429910},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XXII, 109},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Today, more than half of the world's population lives in urban areas. With a high density of population and assets, urban areas are not only the economic, cultural and social hubs of every society, they are also highly susceptible to natural disasters. As a consequence of rising sea levels and an expected increase in extreme weather events caused by a changing climate in combination with growing cities, flooding is an increasing threat to many urban agglomerations around the globe. To mitigate the destructive consequences of flooding, appropriate risk management and adaptation strategies are required. So far, flood risk management in urban areas is almost exclusively focused on managing river and coastal flooding. Often overlooked is the risk from small-scale rainfall-triggered flooding, where the rainfall intensity of rainstorms exceeds the capacity of urban drainage systems, leading to immediate flooding. Referred to as pluvial flooding, this flood type exclusive to urban areas has caused severe losses in cities around the world. Without further intervention, losses from pluvial flooding are expected to increase in many urban areas due to an increase of impervious surfaces compounded with an aging drainage infrastructure and a projected increase in heavy precipitation events. While this requires the integration of pluvial flood risk into risk management plans, so far little is known about the adverse consequences of pluvial flooding due to a lack of both detailed data sets and studies on pluvial flood impacts. As a consequence, methods for reliably estimating pluvial flood losses, needed for pluvial flood risk assessment, are still missing. Therefore, this thesis investigates how pluvial flood losses to private households can be reliably estimated, based on an improved understanding of the drivers of pluvial flood loss. For this purpose, detailed data from pluvial flood-affected households was collected through structured telephone- and web-surveys following pluvial flood events in Germany and the Netherlands. Pluvial flood losses to households are the result of complex interactions between impact characteristics such as the water depth and a household's resistance as determined by its risk awareness, preparedness, emergency response, building properties and other influencing factors. Both exploratory analysis and machine-learning approaches were used to analyze differences in resistance and impacts between households and their effects on the resulting losses. The comparison of case studies showed that the awareness around pluvial flooding among private households is quite low. Low awareness not only challenges the effective dissemination of early warnings, but was also found to influence the implementation of private precautionary measures. The latter were predominately implemented by households with previous experience of pluvial flooding. Even cases where previous flood events affected a different part of the same city did not lead to an increase in preparedness of the surveyed households, highlighting the need to account for small-scale variability in both impact and resistance parameters when assessing pluvial flood risk. While it was concluded that the combination of low awareness, ineffective early warning and the fact that only a minority of buildings were adapted to pluvial flooding impaired the coping capacities of private households, the often low water levels still enabled households to mitigate or even prevent losses through a timely and effective emergency response. These findings were confirmed by the detection of loss-influencing variables, showing that cases in which households were able to prevent any loss to the building structure are predominately explained by resistance variables such as the household's risk awareness, while the degree of loss is mainly explained by impact variables. Based on the important loss-influencing variables detected, different flood loss models were developed. Similar to flood loss models for river floods, the empirical data from the preceding data collection was used to train flood loss models describing the relationship between impact and resistance parameters and the resulting loss to building structures. Different approaches were adapted from river flood loss models using both models with the water depth as only predictor for building structure loss and models incorporating additional variables from the preceding variable detection routine. The high predictive errors of all compared models showed that point predictions are not suitable for estimating losses on the building level, as they severely impair the reliability of the estimates. For that reason, a new probabilistic framework based on Bayesian inference was introduced that is able to provide predictive distributions instead of single loss estimates. These distributions not only give a range of probable losses, they also provide information on how likely a specific loss value is, representing the uncertainty in the loss estimate. Using probabilistic loss models, it was found that the certainty and reliability of a loss estimate on the building level is not only determined by the use of additional predictors as shown in previous studies, but also by the choice of response distribution defining the shape of the predictive distribution. Here, a mix between a beta and a Bernoulli distribution to account for households that are able to prevent losses to their building's structure was found to provide significantly more certain and reliable estimates than previous approaches using Gaussian or non-parametric response distributions. The successful model transfer and post-event application to estimate building structure loss in Houston, TX, caused by pluvial flooding during Hurricane Harvey confirmed previous findings, and demonstrated the potential of the newly developed multi-variable beta model for future risk assessments. The highly detailed input data set constructed from openly available data sources containing over 304,000 affected buildings in Harris County further showed the potential of data-driven, building-level loss models for pluvial flood risk assessment. In conclusion, pluvial flood losses to private households are the result of complex interactions between impact and resistance variables, which should be represented in loss models. The local occurrence of pluvial floods requires loss estimates on high spatial resolutions, i.e. on the building level, where losses are variable and uncertainties are high. Therefore, probabilistic loss estimates describing the uncertainty of the estimate should be used instead of point predictions. While the performance of probabilistic models on the building level are mainly driven by the choice of response distribution, multi-variable models are recommended for two reasons: First, additional resistance variables improve the detection of cases in which households were able to prevent structural losses. Second, the added variability of additional predictors provides a better representation of the uncertainties when loss estimates from multiple buildings are aggregated. This leads to the conclusion that data-driven probabilistic loss models on the building level allow for a reliable loss estimation at an unprecedented level of detail, with a consistent quantification of uncertainties on all aggregation levels. This makes the presented approach suitable for a wide range of applications, from decision support in spatial planning to impact- based early warning systems.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{GostkowskaLekner2024,
  author    = {Gostkowska-Lekner, Natalia Katarzyna},
  title     = {Organic-inorganic hybrids based on P3HT and mesoporous silicon for thermoelectric applications},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-62047},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-620475},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {121},
  year      = {2024},
  abstract  = {This thesis presents a comprehensive study on synthesis, structure and thermoelectric transport properties of organic-inorganic hybrids based on P3HT and porous silicon. The effect of embedding polymer in silicon pores on the electrical and thermal transport is studied. Morphological studies confirm successful polymer infiltration and diffusion doping with roughly 50\% of the pore space occupied by conjugated polymer. Synchrotron diffraction experiments reveal no specific ordering of the polymer inside the pores. P3HT-pSi hybrids show improved electrical transport by five orders of magnitude compared to porous silicon and power factor values comparable or exceeding other P3HT-inorganic hybrids. The analysis suggests different transport mechanisms in both materials. In pSi, the transport mechanism relates to a Meyer-Neldel compansation rule. The analysis of hybrids' data using the power law in Kang-Snyder model suggests that a doped polymer mainly provides charge carriers to the pSi matrix, similar to the behavior of a doped semiconductor. Heavily suppressed thermal transport in porous silicon is treated with a modified Landauer/Lundstrom model and effective medium theories, which reveal that pSi agrees well with the Kirkpatrick model with a 68\% percolation threshold. Thermal conductivities of hybrids show an increase compared to the empty pSi but the overall thermoelectric figure of merit ZT of P3HT-pSi hybrid exceeds both pSi and P3HT as well as bulk Si.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Kiss2024,
  author    = {Kiss, Andrea},
  title     = {Moss-associated bacterial and archaeal communities of northern peatlands: key taxa, environmental drivers and potential functions},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-63064},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-630641},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XX, 139, liv},
  year      = {2024},
  abstract  = {Moss-microbe associations are often characterised by syntrophic interactions between the microorganisms and their hosts, but the structure of the microbial consortia and their role in peatland development remain unknown. In order to study microbial communities of dominant peatland mosses, Sphagnum and brown mosses, and the respective environmental drivers, four study sites representing different successional stages of natural northern peatlands were chosen on a large geographical scale: two brown moss-dominated, circumneutral peatlands from the Arctic and two Sphagnum-dominated, acidic peat bogs from subarctic and temperate zones. The family Acetobacteraceae represented the dominant bacterial taxon of Sphagnum mosses from various geographical origins and displayed an integral part of the moss core community. This core community was shared among all investigated bryophytes and consisted of few but highly abundant prokaryotes, of which many appear as endophytes of Sphagnum mosses. Moreover, brown mosses and Sphagnum mosses represent habitats for archaea which were not studied in association with peatland mosses so far. Euryarchaeota that are capable of methane production (methanogens) displayed the majority of the moss-associated archaeal communities. Moss-associated methanogenesis was detected for the first time, but it was mostly negligible under laboratory conditions. Contrarily, substantial moss-associated methane oxidation was measured on both, brown mosses and Sphagnum mosses, supporting that methanotrophic bacteria as part of the moss microbiome may contribute to the reduction of methane emissions from pristine and rewetted peatlands of the northern hemisphere. Among the investigated abiotic and biotic environmental parameters, the peatland type and the host moss taxon were identified to have a major impact on the structure of moss-associated bacterial communities, contrarily to archaeal communities whose structures were similar among the investigated bryophytes. For the first time it was shown that different bog development stages harbour distinct bacterial communities, while at the same time a small core community is shared among all investigated bryophytes independent of geography and peatland type. The present thesis displays the first large-scale, systematic assessment of bacterial and archaeal communities associated both with brown mosses and Sphagnum mosses. It suggests that some host-specific moss taxa have the potential to play a key role in host moss establishment and peatland development.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Zeitz2022,
  author    = {Zeitz, Maria},
  title     = {Modeling the future resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-56883},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-568839},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {x, 189},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {The Greenland Ice Sheet is the second-largest mass of ice on Earth. Being almost 2000 km long, more than 700 km wide, and more than 3 km thick at the summit, it holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 7m if melted completely. Despite its massive size, it is particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change: temperatures over the Greenland Ice Sheet have increased by more than 2.7◦C in the past 30 years, twice as much as the global mean temperature. Consequently, the ice sheet has been significantly losing mass since the 1980s and the rate of loss has increased sixfold since then. Moreover, it is one of the potential tipping elements of the Earth System, which might undergo irreversible change once a warming threshold is exceeded. This thesis aims at extending the understanding of the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet against global warming by analyzing processes and feedbacks relevant to its centennial to multi-millennial stability using ice sheet modeling. One of these feedbacks, the melt-elevation-feedback is driven by the temperature rise with decreasing altitudes: As the ice sheet melts, its thickness and surface elevation decrease, exposing the ice surface to warmer air and thus increasing the melt rates even further. The glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) can partly mitigate this melt-elevation feedback as the bedrock lifts in response to an ice load decrease, forming the negative GIA feedback. In my thesis, I show that the interaction between these two competing feedbacks can lead to qualitatively different dynamical responses of the Greenland Ice Sheet to warming - from permanent loss to incomplete recovery, depending on the feedback parameters. My research shows that the interaction of those feedbacks can initiate self-sustained oscillations of the ice volume while the climate forcing remains constant. Furthermore, the increased surface melt changes the optical properties of the snow or ice surface, e.g. by lowering their albedo, which in turn enhances melt rates - a process known as the melt-albedo feedback. Process-based ice sheet models often neglect this melt-albedo feedback. To close this gap, I implemented a simplified version of the diurnal Energy Balance Model, a computationally efficient approach that can capture the first-order effects of the melt-albedo feedback, into the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). Using the coupled model, I show in warming experiments that the melt-albedo feedback almost doubles the ice loss until the year 2300 under the low greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP2.6, compared to simulations where the melt-albedo feedback is neglected, and adds up to 58\% additional ice loss under the high emission scenario RCP8.5. Moreover, I find that the melt-albedo feedback dominates the ice loss until 2300, compared to the melt-elevation feedback. Another process that could influence the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet is the warming induced softening of the ice and the resulting increase in flow. In my thesis, I show with PISM how the uncertainty in Glen's flow law impacts the simulated response to warming. In a flow line setup at fixed climatic mass balance, the uncertainty in flow parameters leads to a range of ice loss comparable to the range caused by different warming levels. While I focus on fundamental processes, feedbacks, and their interactions in the first three projects of my thesis, I also explore the impact of specific climate scenarios on the sea level rise contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet. To increase the carbon budget flexibility, some warming scenarios - while still staying within the limits of the Paris Agreement - include a temporal overshoot of global warming. I show that an overshoot by 0.4◦C increases the short-term and long-term ice loss from Greenland by several centimeters. The long-term increase is driven by the warming at high latitudes, which persists even when global warming is reversed. This leads to a substantial long-term commitment of the sea level rise contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Overall, in my thesis I show that the melt-albedo feedback is most relevant for the ice loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet on centennial timescales. In contrast, the melt-elevation feedback and its interplay with the GIA feedback become increasingly relevant on millennial timescales. All of these influence the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet against global warming, in the near future and on the long term.},
  language  = {en}
}