@book{Krause2003, author = {Krause, Werner Karl Ernst}, title = {Die infrarot optisch stimulierende Lumineszenz (IR-OSL) als Methode zur Datierung quart{\"a}rer periglazialer Sedimente der Schirmacher-Oase (Ostantarktika)}, series = {Stoffdynamik in Geosystemen}, volume = {9}, journal = {Stoffdynamik in Geosystemen}, publisher = {Selbstverl. der Arbeitsgruppe Stoffdynamik in Geosystemen}, address = {Potsdam}, issn = {0949-4731}, pages = {115 S.}, year = {2003}, language = {de} } @article{KrauseBuseMaternetal.2011, author = {Krause, Rolf Harald and Buse, Joern and Matern, Andrea and Schroeder, Boris and Haerdtle, Werner and Assmann, Thorsten}, title = {Eresus kollari (Araneae: Eresidae) calls for heathland management}, series = {The Journal of arachnology}, volume = {39}, journal = {The Journal of arachnology}, number = {3}, publisher = {American Arachnological Society}, address = {College Park}, issn = {0161-8202}, pages = {384 -- 392}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Northwest Europe's largest heather-dominated sandy habitats are located in the nature reserve Luneburger Heide, Germany. Yet, even these appear to be losing their ability to support some of their stenotopic species such as the ladybird spider, Eresus kollari Rossi 1846, and are thus becoming increasingly important for the preservation of these species. The habitat requirements of this endangered spider species were investigated in order to obtain data that will help stabilize the last remnants of the species' population in northwest Germany. Several heathland habitats were surveyed by pitfall trapping during the mate-search period of the males. Two statistical methods were applied: logistic regression and boosted regression trees (BRT). Both methods showed that three habitat variables are of prime relevance in predicting the occurrence of E. kollari: a) thickness of the organic layer (a negative effect), b) soil temperature at a depth of 10 cm, and c) Calluna cover in the herb layer (both have positive effect). Our results show that choppering (removing above-ground biomass and most of O-layer) and burning are likely appropriate heathland management measures for the conservation of E. kollari. Such measures improve the species' habitat quality by creating a heterogenic (small-scaled) heathland structure with suitable microhabitats. As Calluna heathlands show a clear senescence of the dominant heather, it is essential that those habitat patches be conserved. Further measures, such as transfer experiments, are recommended.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Krause1999, author = {Krause, Werner Karl Ernst}, title = {Die infrarot optisch stimulierte Lumineszenz (IR-OSL) als Methode zur Datierung quart{\"a}rer, periglazialer Sedimente der Schirmacher-Oase (Ostantarktika)}, address = {Potsdam}, pages = {XI, 110 Bl. : graph. Darst.}, year = {1999}, language = {de} } @article{KrauseGahn2023, author = {Krause, Werner and Gahn, Christina}, title = {Should we include margins of error in public opinion polls?}, series = {European journal of political research}, volume = {Early view}, journal = {European journal of political research}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0304-4130}, doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12633}, pages = {26}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Public opinion polls have become vital and increasingly visible parts of election campaigns. Previous research has frequently demonstrated that polls can influence both citizens' voting intentions and political parties' campaign strategies. However, they are also fraught with uncertainty. Margins of error can reflect (parts of) this uncertainty. This paper investigates how citizens' voting intentions change due to whether polling estimates are presented with or without margins of error. Using a vignette experiment (N=3224), we examine this question based on a real-world example in which different election polls were shown to nationally representative respondents ahead of the 2021 federal election in Germany. We manipulated the display of the margins of error, the interpretation of polls and the closeness of the electoral race. The results indicate that margins of error can influence citizens' voting intentions. This effect is dependent on the actual closeness of the race and additional interpretative guidance provided to voters. More concretely, the results consistently show that margins of error increase citizens' inclination to vote for one of the two largest contesting parties if the polling gap between these parties is small, and an interpretation underlines this closeness. The findings of this study are important for three reasons. First, they help to determine whether margins of error can assist citizens in making more informed (strategic) vote decisions. They shed light on whether depicting opinion-poll uncertainty affects the key features of representative democracy, such as democratic accountability. Second, the results stress the responsibility of the media. The way polls are interpreted and contextualized influences the effect of margins of error on voting behaviour. Third, the findings of this paper underscore the significance of including methodological details when communicating scientific research findings to the broader public.}, language = {en} } @article{CohenKrauseAbouChadi2024, author = {Cohen, Denis and Krause, Werner and Abou-Chadi, Tarik}, title = {Comparative vote switching}, series = {The journal of politics}, volume = {86}, journal = {The journal of politics}, number = {2}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, address = {Chicago, IL}, issn = {0022-3816}, doi = {10.1086/726952}, pages = {597 -- 607}, year = {2024}, abstract = {Large literatures focus on voter reactions to parties' policy strategies, agency, or legislative performance. While many inquiries make explicit assumptions about the direction and magnitude of voter flows between parties, comparative empirical analyses of vote switching remain rare. In this article, we overcome three challenges that have previously impeded the comparative study of dynamic party competition based on voter flows: we present a novel conceptual framework for studying voter retention, defection, and attraction in multiparty systems, showcase a newly compiled data infrastructure that marries comparative vote switching data with information on party behavior and party systems in over 250 electoral contexts, and introduce a statistical model that renders our conceptual framework operable. These innovations enable first-time inquiries into the polyadic vote switching patterns underlying multiparty competition and unlock major research potentials on party competition and party system change.}, language = {en} } @techreport{SchwabKrauseMassoud2023, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Schwab, Regine and Krause, Werner and Massoud, Samer}, title = {The bombing of hospitals and local violence dynamics in civil wars}, series = {HiCN Working paper}, volume = {403}, journal = {HiCN Working paper}, publisher = {Households in Conflict Network}, address = {Berlin}, pages = {89}, year = {2023}, abstract = {The impact of civilian harm on strategic outcomes in war has been the subject of persistent debate. However, the literature has primarily focused on civilian casualties, thereby overlooking the targeting of civilian infrastructure, which is a recurrent phenomenon during war. This study fills this gap by examining the targeting of healthcare, one of the most indispensable infrastructures during war and peace time. We contend that attacks on medical facilities are distinct from direct violence against civilians. Because they are typically unrelated to military dynamics, the targeting of hospitals is a highly visible form and powerful signal of civilian victimization. To assess its effects, we analyze newly collected data on such attacks by pro-government forces and event data on combat activities in Northwest Syria (2017-2020). Applying a new approach for panel data analysis that combines matching methods with a difference-in-differences estimation, we examine the causal effect of counterinsurgent bombings on subsequent violent events. Distinguishing between regime-initiated and insurgent-initiated combat activities and their associated fatalities, we find that the targeting of hospitals increases insurgent violence. We supplement the quantitative analysis with unique qualitative evidence derived from interviews, which demonstrates that hospital bombings induce rebels to resist more fiercely through two mechanisms: intrinsic motivations and civilian pressure. The results have important implications for the effects of state-led violence and the strength of legal norms that protect noncombatants.}, language = {en} } @misc{KrauseGahn2024, author = {Krause, Werner and Gahn, Christina}, title = {How powerful are polls in influencing election outcomes?}, series = {The LOOP : ECPR's Political Science Blog}, journal = {The LOOP : ECPR's Political Science Blog}, publisher = {European Consortium for Political Research}, address = {Colchester}, year = {2024}, abstract = {Werner Krause and Christina Gahn argue that we need to pay more attention to how the media communicates the results of opinion polls to the public. Reporting methodological details, such as margins of error, can alter citizens' vote choices on election day. This has important implications for elections around the world}, language = {en} } @misc{MatsunagaKrause2023, author = {Matsunaga, Miku and Krause, Werner}, title = {Right-wing violence and the persistence of far-right popularity}, series = {The LOOP : ECPR's Political Science Blog}, journal = {The LOOP : ECPR's Political Science Blog}, publisher = {European Consortium for Political Research}, address = {Colchester}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Miku Matsunaga and Werner Krause reveal how voters who support radical-right parties are sticking by them, despite the current upsurge in right-wing violence. Their findings raise crucial concerns about the broader ramifications of growing far-right movements across the globe}, language = {en} } @misc{Krause2023, author = {Krause, Werner}, title = {Rechts nur noch die Wand?}, series = {Verfassungsblog : on matters constitutional}, journal = {Verfassungsblog : on matters constitutional}, publisher = {Max Steinbeis Verfassungsblog gGmbH}, address = {Berlin}, issn = {2366-7044}, doi = {10.17176/20230207-233109-0}, pages = {4}, year = {2023}, language = {de} } @misc{Krause2023, author = {Krause, Werner}, title = {Die Macht der Sonntagsfrage}, series = {Verfassungsblog : on matters constitutional}, journal = {Verfassungsblog : on matters constitutional}, publisher = {Max Steinbeis Verfassungsblog gGmbH}, address = {Berlin}, issn = {2366-7044}, doi = {10.17176/20231222-111226-0}, pages = {7}, year = {2023}, abstract = {F{\"u}r das Jahr 2024 sind entscheidende Wahlen geplant - unter ihnen die US-Pr{\"a}sidentschaftswahl und die Wahlen zum Europ{\"a}ischen Parlament. In Deutschland werden in Brandenburg, Sachsen und Th{\"u}ringen die Landtage gew{\"a}hlt. Wahlumfragen, insbesondere die Sonntagsfrage, sind zu einem integralen Bestandteil von Wahlk{\"a}mpfen geworden; gleichzeitig steht auch deren Zuverl{\"a}ssigkeit im Zentrum medialer Aufmerksamkeit. Eine Debatte {\"u}ber die Kommunikation und Darstellung von Meinungsumfragen ist in Deutschland dringend notwendig. Eine bindende Selbstverpflichtung der Umfrageinstitute und Medienh{\"a}user w{\"a}re eine vielversprechende L{\"o}sung.}, language = {de} }