@article{RadchukKramerSchadtFickeletal.2019, author = {Radchuk, Viktoriia and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie and Fickel, J{\"o}rns and Wilting, Andreas}, title = {Distributions of mammals in Southeast Asia: The role of the legacy of climate and species body mass}, series = {Journal of biogeography}, volume = {46}, journal = {Journal of biogeography}, number = {10}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0305-0270}, doi = {10.1111/jbi.13675}, pages = {2350 -- 2362}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Aim Current species distributions are shaped by present and past biotic and abiotic factors. Here, we assessed whether abiotic factors (habitat availability) in combination with past connectivity and a biotic factor (body mass) can explain the unique distribution pattern of Southeast Asian mammals, which are separated by the enigmatic biogeographic transition zone, the Isthmus of Kra (IoK), for which no strong geophysical barrier exists. Location Southeast Asia. Taxon Mammals. Methods We projected habitat suitability for 125 mammal species using climate data for the present period and for two historic periods: mid-Holocene (6 ka) and last glacial maximum (LGM 21 ka). Next, we employed a phylogenetic linear model to assess how present species distributions were affected by the suitability of areas in these different periods, habitat connectivity during LGM and species body mass. Results Our results show that cooler climate during LGM provided suitable habitat south of IoK for species presently distributed north of IoK (in mainland Indochina). However, the potentially suitable habitat for these Indochinese species did not stretch very far southwards onto the exposed Sunda Shelf. Instead, we found that the emerged landmasses connecting Borneo and Sumatra provided suitable habitat for forest dependent Sundaic species. We show that for species whose current distribution ranges are mainly located in Indochina, the area of the distribution range that is located south of IoK is explained by the suitability of habitat in the past and present in combination with the species body mass. Main conclusions We demonstrate that a strong geophysical barrier may not be necessary for maintaining a biogeographic transition zone for mammals, but that instead a combination of abiotic and biotic factors may suffice.}, language = {en} } @article{SchererRadchukStaubachetal.2019, author = {Scherer, Cedric and Radchuk, Viktoriia and Staubach, Christoph and Mueller, Sophie and Blaum, Niels and Thulke, Hans-Hermann and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie}, title = {Seasonal host life-history processes fuel disease dynamics at different spatial scales}, series = {Journal of animal ecology : a journal of the British Ecological Society}, volume = {88}, journal = {Journal of animal ecology : a journal of the British Ecological Society}, number = {11}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0021-8790}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13070}, pages = {1812 -- 1824}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Understanding the drivers underlying disease dynamics is still a major challenge in disease ecology, especially in the case of long-term disease persistence. Even though there is a strong consensus that density-dependent factors play an important role for the spread of diseases, the main drivers are still discussed and, more importantly, might differ between invasion and persistence periods. Here, we analysed long-term outbreak data of classical swine fever, an important disease in both wild boar and livestock, prevalent in the wild boar population from 1993 to 2000 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany. We report outbreak characteristics and results from generalized linear mixed models to reveal what factors affected infection risk on both the landscape and the individual level. Spatiotemporal outbreak dynamics showed an initial wave-like spread with high incidence during the invasion period followed by a drop of incidence and an increase in seroprevalence during the persistence period. Velocity of spread increased with time during the first year of outbreak and decreased linearly afterwards, being on average 7.6 km per quarter. Landscape- and individual-level analyses of infection risk indicate contrasting seasonal patterns. During the persistence period, infection risk on the landscape level was highest during autumn and winter seasons, probably related to spatial behaviour such as increased long-distance movements and contacts induced by rutting and escaping movements. In contrast, individual-level infection risk peaked in spring, probably related to the concurrent birth season leading to higher densities, and was significantly higher in piglets than in reproductive animals. Our findings highlight that it is important to investigate both individual- and landscape-level patterns of infection risk to understand long-term persistence of wildlife diseases and to guide respective management actions. Furthermore, we highlight that exploring different temporal aggregation of the data helps to reveal important seasonal patterns, which might be masked otherwise.}, language = {en} } @article{RadchukReedTeplitskyetal.2019, author = {Radchuk, Viktoriia and Reed, Thomas and Teplitsky, Celine and van de Pol, Martijn and Charmantier, Anne and Hassall, Christopher and Adamik, Peter and Adriaensen, Frank and Ahola, Markus P. and Arcese, Peter and Miguel Aviles, Jesus and Balbontin, Javier and Berg, Karl S. and Borras, Antoni and Burthe, Sarah and Clobert, Jean and Dehnhard, Nina and de Lope, Florentino and Dhondt, Andre A. and Dingemanse, Niels J. and Doi, Hideyuki and Eeva, Tapio and Fickel, J{\"o}rns and Filella, Iolanda and Fossoy, Frode and Goodenough, Anne E. and Hall, Stephen J. G. and Hansson, Bengt and Harris, Michael and Hasselquist, Dennis and Hickler, Thomas and Jasmin Radha, Jasmin and Kharouba, Heather and Gabriel Martinez, Juan and Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste and Mills, James A. and Molina-Morales, Mercedes and Moksnes, Arne and Ozgul, Arpat and Parejo, Deseada and Pilard, Philippe and Poisbleau, Maud and Rousset, Francois and R{\"o}del, Mark-Oliver and Scott, David and Carlos Senar, Juan and Stefanescu, Constanti and Stokke, Bard G. and Kusano, Tamotsu and Tarka, Maja and Tarwater, Corey E. and Thonicke, Kirsten and Thorley, Jack and Wilting, Andreas and Tryjanowski, Piotr and Merila, Juha and Sheldon, Ben C. and Moller, Anders Pape and Matthysen, Erik and Janzen, Fredric and Dobson, F. Stephen and Visser, Marcel E. and Beissinger, Steven R. and Courtiol, Alexandre and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie}, title = {Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient}, series = {Nature Communications}, volume = {10}, journal = {Nature Communications}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2041-1723}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4}, pages = {14}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.}, language = {en} } @article{EgliWeiseRadchuketal.2019, author = {Egli, Lukas and Weise, Hanna and Radchuk, Viktoriia and Seppelt, Ralf and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Exploring resilience with agent-based models: State of the art, knowledge gaps and recommendations for coping with multidimensionality}, series = {Ecological complexity}, volume = {40}, journal = {Ecological complexity}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1476-945X}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecocom.2018.06.008}, pages = {7}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Anthropogenic pressures increasingly alter natural systems. Therefore, understanding the resilience of agent-based complex systems such as ecosystems, i.e. their ability to absorb these pressures and sustain their functioning and services, is a major challenge. However, the mechanisms underlying resilience are still poorly understood. A main reason for this is the multidimensionality of both resilience, embracing the three fundamental stability properties recovery, resistance and persistence, and of the specific situations for which stability properties can be assessed. Agent-based models (ABM) complement empirical research which is, for logistic reasons, limited in coping with these multiple dimensions. Besides their ability to integrate multidimensionality through extensive manipulation in a fully controlled system, ABMs can capture the emergence of system resilience from individual interactions and feedbacks across different levels of organization. To assess the extent to which this potential of ABMs has already been exploited, we reviewed the state of the art in exploring resilience and its multidimensionality in ecological and socio-ecological systems with ABMs. We found that the potential of ABMs is not utilized in most models, as they typically focus on a single dimension of resilience by using variability as a proxy for persistence, and are limited to one reference state, disturbance type and scale. Moreover, only few studies explicitly test the ability of different mechanisms to support resilience. To overcome these limitations, we recommend to simultaneously assess multiple stability properties for different situations and under consideration of the mechanisms that are hypothesised to render a system resilient. This will help us to better exploit the potential of ABMs to understand and quantify resilience mechanisms, and hence support solving real-world problems related to the resilience of agent-based complex systems.}, language = {en} } @article{RadchukDeLaenderCabraletal.2019, author = {Radchuk, Viktoriia and De Laender, Frederik and Cabral, Juliano Sarmento and Boulangeat, Isabelle and Crawford, Michael Scott and Bohn, Friedrich and De Raedt, Jonathan and Scherer, Cedric and Svenning, Jens-Christian and Thonicke, Kirsten and Schurr, Frank M. and Grimm, Volker and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie}, title = {The dimensionality of stability depends on disturbance type}, series = {Ecology letters}, volume = {22}, journal = {Ecology letters}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1461-023X}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13226}, pages = {674 -- 684}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Ecosystems respond in various ways to disturbances. Quantifying ecological stability therefore requires inspecting multiple stability properties, such as resistance, recovery, persistence and invariability. Correlations among these properties can reduce the dimensionality of stability, simplifying the study of environmental effects on ecosystems. A key question is how the kind of disturbance affects these correlations. We here investigated the effect of three disturbance types (random, species-specific, local) applied at four intensity levels, on the dimensionality of stability at the population and community level. We used previously parameterized models that represent five natural communities, varying in species richness and the number of trophic levels. We found that disturbance type but not intensity affected the dimensionality of stability and only at the population level. The dimensionality of stability also varied greatly among species and communities. Therefore, studying stability cannot be simplified to using a single metric and multi-dimensional assessments are still to be recommended.}, language = {en} } @misc{RadchukKramerSchadtGrimm2019, author = {Radchuk, Viktoriia and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Transferability of mechanistic ecological models is about emergence}, series = {Trends in ecology and evolution}, volume = {34}, journal = {Trends in ecology and evolution}, number = {6}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {London}, issn = {0169-5347}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2019.01.010}, pages = {487 -- 488}, year = {2019}, language = {en} } @article{KuerschnerSchererRadchuketal.2021, author = {K{\"u}rschner, Tobias and Scherer, C{\´e}dric and Radchuk, Viktoriia and Blaum, Niels and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie}, title = {Movement can mediate temporal mismatches between resource availability and biological events in host-pathogen interactions}, series = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, number = {10}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2045-7758}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.7478}, pages = {5728 -- 5741}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Global change is shifting the timing of biological events, leading to temporal mismatches between biological events and resource availability. These temporal mismatches can threaten species' populations. Importantly, temporal mismatches not only exert strong pressures on the population dynamics of the focal species, but can also lead to substantial changes in pairwise species interactions such as host-pathogen systems. We adapted an established individual-based model of host-pathogen dynamics. The model describes a viral agent in a social host, while accounting for the host's explicit movement decisions. We aimed to investigate how temporal mismatches between seasonal resource availability and host life-history events affect host-pathogen coexistence, that is, disease persistence. Seasonal resource fluctuations only increased coexistence probability when in synchrony with the hosts' biological events. However, a temporal mismatch reduced host-pathogen coexistence, but only marginally. In tandem with an increasing temporal mismatch, our model showed a shift in the spatial distribution of infected hosts. It shifted from an even distribution under synchronous conditions toward the formation of disease hotspots, when host life history and resource availability mismatched completely. The spatial restriction of infected hosts to small hotspots in the landscape initially suggested a lower coexistence probability due to the critical loss of susceptible host individuals within those hotspots. However, the surrounding landscape facilitated demographic rescue through habitat-dependent movement. Our work demonstrates that the negative effects of temporal mismatches between host resource availability and host life history on host-pathogen coexistence can be reduced through the formation of temporary disease hotspots and host movement decisions, with implications for disease management under disturbances and global change.}, language = {en} } @article{WiltingPatelPfestorfetal.2016, author = {Wilting, A. and Patel, R. and Pfestorf, Hans and Kern, C. and Sultan, K. and Ario, A. and Penaloza, F. and Kramer-Schadt, S. and Radchuk, Viktoriia and Foerster, D. W. and Fickel, J{\"o}rns}, title = {Evolutionary history and conservation significance of the Javan leopard Panthera pardus melas}, series = {Journal of zoology : proceedings of the Zoological Society of London}, volume = {299}, journal = {Journal of zoology : proceedings of the Zoological Society of London}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0952-8369}, doi = {10.1111/jzo.12348}, pages = {239 -- 250}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The leopard Panthera pardus is widely distributed across Africa and Asia; however, there is a gap in its natural distribution in Southeast Asia, where it occurs on the mainland and on Java but not on the interjacent island of Sumatra. Several scenarios have been proposed to explain this distribution gap. Here, we complemented an existing dataset of 68 leopard mtDNA sequences from Africa and Asia with mtDNA sequences (NADH5+ ctrl, 724bp) from 19 Javan leopards, and hindcasted leopard distribution to the Pleistocene to gain further insights into the evolutionary history of the Javan leopard. Our data confirmed that Javan leopards are evolutionarily distinct from other Asian leopards, and that they have been present on Java since the Middle Pleistocene. Species distribution projections suggest that Java was likely colonized via a Malaya-Java land bridge that by-passed Sumatra, as suitable conditions for leopards during Pleistocene glacial periods were restricted to northern and western Sumatra. As fossil evidence supports the presence of leopards on Sumatra at the beginning of the Late Pleistocene, our projections are consistent with a scenario involving the extinction of leopards on Sumatra as a consequence of the Toba super volcanic eruption (similar to 74kya). The impact of this eruption was minor on Java, suggesting that leopards managed to survive here. Currently, only a few hundred leopards still live in the wild and only about 50 are managed in captivity. Therefore, this unique and distinctive subspecies requires urgent, concerted conservation efforts, integrating insitu and ex situ conservation management activities in a One Plan Approach to species conservation management.}, language = {en} } @misc{HornBecherJohstetal.2020, author = {Horn, Juliane and Becher, Matthias A. and Johst, Karin and Kennedy, Peter J. and Osborne, Juliet L. and Radchuk, Viktoriia and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Honey bee colony performance affected by crop diversity and farmland structure}, series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-55694}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-556943}, pages = {24}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Forage availability has been suggested as one driver of the observed decline in honey bees. However, little is known about the effects of its spatiotemporal variation on colony success. We present a modeling framework for assessing honey bee colony viability in cropping systems. Based on two real farmland structures, we developed a landscape generator to design cropping systems varying in crop species identity, diversity, and relative abundance. The landscape scenarios generated were evaluated using the existing honey bee colony model BEEHAVE, which links foraging to in-hive dynamics. We thereby explored how different cropping systems determine spatiotemporal forage availability and, in turn, honey bee colony viability (e.g., time to extinction, TTE) and resilience (indicated by, e.g., brood mortality). To assess overall colony viability, we developed metrics,P(H)andP(P,)which quantified how much nectar and pollen provided by a cropping system per year was converted into a colony's adult worker population. Both crop species identity and diversity determined the temporal continuity in nectar and pollen supply and thus colony viability. Overall farmland structure and relative crop abundance were less important, but details mattered. For monocultures and for four-crop species systems composed of cereals, oilseed rape, maize, and sunflower,P(H)andP(P)were below the viability threshold. Such cropping systems showed frequent, badly timed, and prolonged forage gaps leading to detrimental cascading effects on life stages and in-hive work force, which critically reduced colony resilience. Four-crop systems composed of rye-grass-dandelion pasture, trefoil-grass pasture, sunflower, and phacelia ensured continuous nectar and pollen supply resulting in TTE > 5 yr, andP(H)(269.5 kg) andP(P)(108 kg) being above viability thresholds for 5 yr. Overall, trefoil-grass pasture, oilseed rape, buckwheat, and phacelia improved the temporal continuity in forage supply and colony's viability. Our results are hypothetical as they are obtained from simplified landscape settings, but they nevertheless match empirical observations, in particular the viability threshold. Our framework can be used to assess the effects of cropping systems on honey bee viability and to develop land-use strategies that help maintain pollination services by avoiding prolonged and badly timed forage gaps.}, language = {en} } @article{HornBecherJohstetal.2020, author = {Horn, Juliane and Becher, Matthias A. and Johst, Karin and Kennedy, Peter J. and Osborne, Juliet L. and Radchuk, Viktoriia and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Honey bee colony performance affected by crop diversity and farmland structure}, series = {Ecological applications}, volume = {31}, journal = {Ecological applications}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley Periodicals LLC}, address = {Washington DC}, issn = {1939-5582}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2216}, pages = {1 -- 22}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Forage availability has been suggested as one driver of the observed decline in honey bees. However, little is known about the effects of its spatiotemporal variation on colony success. We present a modeling framework for assessing honey bee colony viability in cropping systems. Based on two real farmland structures, we developed a landscape generator to design cropping systems varying in crop species identity, diversity, and relative abundance. The landscape scenarios generated were evaluated using the existing honey bee colony model BEEHAVE, which links foraging to in-hive dynamics. We thereby explored how different cropping systems determine spatiotemporal forage availability and, in turn, honey bee colony viability (e.g., time to extinction, TTE) and resilience (indicated by, e.g., brood mortality). To assess overall colony viability, we developed metrics,P(H)andP(P,)which quantified how much nectar and pollen provided by a cropping system per year was converted into a colony's adult worker population. Both crop species identity and diversity determined the temporal continuity in nectar and pollen supply and thus colony viability. Overall farmland structure and relative crop abundance were less important, but details mattered. For monocultures and for four-crop species systems composed of cereals, oilseed rape, maize, and sunflower,P(H)andP(P)were below the viability threshold. Such cropping systems showed frequent, badly timed, and prolonged forage gaps leading to detrimental cascading effects on life stages and in-hive work force, which critically reduced colony resilience. Four-crop systems composed of rye-grass-dandelion pasture, trefoil-grass pasture, sunflower, and phacelia ensured continuous nectar and pollen supply resulting in TTE > 5 yr, andP(H)(269.5 kg) andP(P)(108 kg) being above viability thresholds for 5 yr. Overall, trefoil-grass pasture, oilseed rape, buckwheat, and phacelia improved the temporal continuity in forage supply and colony's viability. Our results are hypothetical as they are obtained from simplified landscape settings, but they nevertheless match empirical observations, in particular the viability threshold. Our framework can be used to assess the effects of cropping systems on honey bee viability and to develop land-use strategies that help maintain pollination services by avoiding prolonged and badly timed forage gaps.}, language = {en} } @article{RadchukJohstGroeneveldetal.2013, author = {Radchuk, Viktoriia and Johst, Karin and Gr{\"o}neveld, Juergen and Grimm, Volker and Schtickzelle, Nicolas}, title = {Behind the scenes of population viability modeling predicting butterfly metapopulation dynamics under climate change}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {259}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, number = {2}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.03.014}, pages = {62 -- 73}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Studies explaining the choice of model structure for population viability analysis (PVA) are rare and no such study exists for butterfly species, a focal group for conservation. Here, we describe in detail the development of a model to predict population viability of a glacial relict butterfly species, Boloria eunomia, under climate change. We compared four alternative formulations of an individual-based model, differing in the environmental factors acting on the survival of immature life stages: temperature (only temperature impact), weather (temperature, precipitation, and sunshine), temperature and parasitism, and weather and parasitism. Following pattern-oriented modeling, four observed patterns were used to contrast these models: one qualitative (response of population size to habitat parameters) and three quantitative ones describing population dynamics during eight years (mean and variability of population size, and magnitude of the temporal autocorrelation in yearly population growth rates). The four model formulations were not equally able to depict population dynamics under current environmental conditions; the model including only temperature was selected as the most parsimonious model sufficiently well reproducing the empirical patterns. We used all four model formulations to test a range of climate change scenarios that were characterized by changes in both mean and variability of the weather variables. All models predicted adverse effects of climate change and resulted in the same ranking of mean climate change scenarios. However, models differed in their absolute values of population viability measures, underlining the need to explicitly choose the most appropriate model formulation and avoid arbitrary usage of environmental drivers in a model. We conclude that further applications of pattern-oriented modeling to butterfly and other species are likely to help in identifying the key factors impacting the viability of certain taxa, which, ultimately, will aid and speed up informed management decisions for endangered species under climate change.}, language = {en} } @article{GrimmAugusiakFocksetal.2014, author = {Grimm, Volker and Augusiak, Jacqueline and Focks, Andreas and Frank, Beatrice M. and Gabsi, Faten and Johnston, Alice S. A. and Liu, Chun and Martin, Benjamin T. and Meli, Mattia and Radchuk, Viktoriia and Thorbek, Pernille and Railsback, Steven Floyd}, title = {Towards better modelling and decision support: Documenting model development, testing, and analysis using TRACE}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {280}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.01.018}, pages = {129 -- 139}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The potential of ecological models for supporting environmental decision making is increasingly acknowledged. However, it often remains unclear whether a model is realistic and reliable enough. Good practice for developing and testing ecological models has not yet been established. Therefore, TRACE, a general framework for documenting a model's rationale, design, and testing was recently suggested. Originally TRACE was aimed at documenting good modelling practice. However, the word 'documentation' does not convey TRACE's urgency. Therefore, we re-define TRACE as a tool for planning, performing, and documenting good modelling practice. TRACE documents should provide convincing evidence that a model was thoughtfully designed, correctly implemented, thoroughly tested, well understood, and appropriately used for its intended purpose. TRACE documents link the science underlying a model to its application, thereby also linking modellers and model users, for example stakeholders, decision makers, and developers of policies. We report on first experiences in producing TRACE documents. We found that the original idea underlying TRACE was valid, but to make its use more coherent and efficient, an update of its structure and more specific guidance for its use are needed. The updated TRACE format follows the recently developed framework of model 'evaludation': the entire process of establishing model quality and credibility throughout all stages of model development, analysis, and application. TRACE thus becomes a tool for planning, documenting, and assessing model evaludation, which includes understanding the rationale behind a model and its envisaged use. We introduce the new structure and revised terminology of TRACE and provide examples. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{RadchukJohstGroeneveldetal.2014, author = {Radchuk, Viktoriia and Johst, Karin and Groeneveld, J{\"u}rgen and Turlure, Camille and Grimm, Volker and Schtickzelle, Nicolas}, title = {Appropriate resolution in time and model structure for population viability analysis: Insights from a butterfly metapopulation}, series = {: an international journal}, volume = {169}, journal = {: an international journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0006-3207}, doi = {10.1016/j.biocon.2013.12.004}, pages = {345 -- 354}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The importance of a careful choice of the appropriate scale for studying ecological phenomena has been stressed repeatedly. However, issues of spatial scale in metapopulation dynamics received much more attention compared to temporal scale. Moreover, multiple calls were made to carefully choose the appropriate model structure for Population Viability Analysis (PVA). We assessed the effect of using coarser resolution in time and model structure on population dynamics. For this purpose, we compared outcomes of two PVA models differing in their time step: daily individual-based model (dIBM) and yearly stage-based model (ySBM), loaded with empirical data on a well-known metapopulation of the butterfly Boloria eunomia. Both models included the same environmental drivers of population dynamics that were previously identified as being the most important for this species. Under temperature change scenarios, both models yielded the same qualitative scenario ranking, but they quite substantially differed quantitatively with dIBM being more pessimistic in absolute viability measures. We showed that these differences stemmed from inter-individual heterogeneity in dIBM allowing for phenological shifts of individual appearance. We conclude that a finer temporal resolution and an individual-based model structure allow capturing the essential mechanisms necessary to go beyond mere PVA scenario ranking. We encourage researchers to carefully chose the temporal resolution and structure of their model aiming at (1) depicting the processes important for (meta)population dynamics of the species and (2) implementing the environmental change scenarios expected for their study system in the future, using the temporal resolution at which such changes are predicted to operate.}, language = {en} } @article{PatelFoersterKitcheneretal.2016, author = {Patel, Riddhi P. and F{\"o}rster, Daniel W. and Kitchener, Andrew C. and Rayan, Mark D. and Mohamed, Shariff W. and Werner, Laura and Lenz, Dorina and Pfestorf, Hans and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie and Radchuk, Viktoriia and Fickel, J{\"o}rns and Wilting, Andreas}, title = {Two species of Southeast Asian cats in the genus Catopuma with diverging histories: an island endemic forest specialist and a widespread habitat generalist}, series = {Royal Society Open Science}, volume = {3}, journal = {Royal Society Open Science}, publisher = {Royal Society}, address = {London}, issn = {2054-5703}, doi = {10.1098/rsos.160350}, pages = {741 -- 752}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Background. The bay cat Catopuma badia is endemic to Borneo, whereas its sister species the Asian golden cat Catopuma temminckii is distributed from the Himalayas and southern China through Indochina, Peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra. Based onmorphological data, up to five subspecies of the Asian golden cat have been recognized, but a taxonomic assessment, including molecular data and morphological characters, is still lacking. Results. We combined molecular data (whole mitochondrial genomes), morphological data (pelage) and species distribution projections (up to the Late Pleistocene) to infer how environmental changes may have influenced the distribution of these sister species over the past 120 000 years. The molecular analysis was based on sequenced mitogenomes of 3 bay cats and 40 Asian golden cats derived mainly from archival samples. Our molecular data suggested a time of split between the two species approximately 3.16 Ma and revealed very low nucleotide diversity within the Asian golden cat population, which supports recent expansion of the population. Discussion. The low nucleotide diversity suggested a population bottleneck in the Asian golden cat, possibly caused by the eruption of the Toba volcano in Northern Sumatra (approx. 74 kya), followed by a continuous population expansion in the Late Pleistocene/Early Holocene. Species distribution projections, the reconstruction of the demographic history, a genetic isolation-by-distance pattern and a gradual variation of pelage pattern support the hypothesis of a post-Toba population expansion of the Asian golden cat from south China/Indochina to PeninsularMalaysia and Sumatra. Our findings reject the current classification of five subspecies for the Asian golden cat, but instead support either a monotypic species or one comprising two subspecies: (i) the Sunda golden cat, distributed south of the Isthmus of Kra: C. t. temminckii and (ii) Indochinese, Indian, Himalayan and Chinese golden cats, occurring north of the Isthmus: C. t. moormensis.}, language = {en} } @article{RadchukOppelGroeneveldetal.2016, author = {Radchuk, Viktoriia and Oppel, Steffen and Groeneveld, Juergen and Grimm, Volker and Schtickzelle, Nicolas}, title = {Simple or complex: Relative impact of data availability and model purpose on the choice of model types for population viability analyses}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {323}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.11.022}, pages = {87 -- 95}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Population viability analysis (PVA) models are used to estimate population extinction risk under different scenarios. Both simple and complex PVA models are developed and have their specific pros and cons; the question therefore arises whether we always use the most appropriate model type. Generally, the specific purpose of a model and the availability of data are listed as determining the choice of model type, but this has not been formally tested yet. We quantified the relative importance of model purpose and nine metrics of data availability and resolution for the choice of a PVA model type, while controlling for effects of the different life histories of the modelled species. We evaluated 37 model pairs: each consisting of a generally simpler, population-based model (PBM) and a more complex, individual-based model (IBM) developed for the same species. The choice of model type was primarily affected by the availability and resolution of demographic, dispersal and spatial data. Low-resolution data resulted in the development of less complex models. Model purpose did not affect the choice of the model type. We confirm the general assumption that poor data availability is the main reason for the wide use of simpler models, which may have limited predictive power for population responses to changing environmental conditions. Conservation biology is a crisis discipline where researchers learned to work with the data at hand. However, for threatened and poorly-known species, there is no short-cut when developing either a PBM or an IBM: investments to collect appropriately detailed data are required to ensure PVA models can assess extinction risk under complex environmental conditions. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} }