@article{GuentherSchueleZurelletal.2023, author = {G{\"u}nther, Oliver and Sch{\"u}le, Manja and Zurell, Damaris and Jeltsch, Florian and Roeleke, Manuel and Kampe, Heike and Zimmermann, Matthias and Scholz, Jana and Engbert, Ralf and Elsner, Birgit and Schlangen, David and Agrofylax, Luisa and Georgi, Doreen and Weymar, Mathias and Wagener, Thorsten and Bookhagen, Bodo and Eibl, Eva P. S. and Korup, Oliver and Oswald, Sascha and Thieken, Annegret and van der Beek, Pieter A.}, title = {Portal Wissen = Exzellenz}, series = {Portal Wissen: Das Forschungsmagazin der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, journal = {Portal Wissen: Das Forschungsmagazin der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, number = {02/2023}, issn = {2194-4245}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-61144}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-611440}, pages = {98}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Was nicht nur gut oder sehr gut ist, nennen wir gern exzellent. Aber was meint das eigentlich? Vom lateinischen „excellere" kommend, beschreibt es Dinge, Personen oder Handlungen, die „hervor-" oder „herausragen" aus der Menge, sich „auszeichnen" gegen{\"u}ber anderen. Mehr geht nicht. Exzellenz ist das Mittel der Wahl, wenn es darum geht, der Erste oder Beste zu sein. Und das macht auch vor der Forschung nicht halt. Wer auf die Universit{\"a}t Potsdam schaut, findet zahlreiche ausgezeichnete Forschende, hervorragende Projekte und immer wieder auch aufsehenerregende Erkenntnisse, Ver{\"o}ffentlichungen und Ergebnisse. Aber ist die UP auch exzellent? Eine Frage, die 2023 ganz sicher andere Wellen schl{\"a}gt als vielleicht vor 20 Jahren. Denn seit dem Start der Exzellenzinitiative 2005 gelten als - w{\"o}rtlich - exzellent jene Hochschulen, denen es gelingt, in dem umfangreichsten F{\"o}rderprogramm f{\"u}r Wissenschaft in Deutschland einen Zuschlag zu erhalten. Egal ob in Form von Graduiertenschulen, Forschungsclustern oder - seit Fortsetzung des Programms ab 2019 unter dem Titel „Exzellenzstrategie" - ganzen Exzellenzuniversit{\"a}ten: Wer im Kreis der Forschungsuniversit{\"a}ten zu den Besten geh{\"o}ren will, braucht das Siegel der Exzellenz. In der gerade eingel{\"a}uteten neuen Wettbewerbsrunde der „Exzellenzstrategie des Bundes und der L{\"a}nder" bewirbt sich die Universit{\"a}t Potsdam mit drei Clusterskizzen um F{\"o}rderung. Ein Antrag kommt aus der {\"O}kologie- und Biodiversit{\"a}tsforschung. Ziel ist es, ein komplexes Bild {\"o}kologischer Prozesse zu zeichnen - und dabei die Rolle von einzelnen Individuen ebenso zu betrachten wie das Zusammenwirken vieler Arten in einem {\"O}kosystem, um die Funktion der Artenvielfalt genauer zu bestimmen. Eine zweite Skizze haben die Kognitionswissenschaften eingereicht. Hier soll das komplexe Nebeneinander von Sprache und Kognition, Entwicklung und Lernen sowie Motivation und Verhalten als dynamisches Miteinander erforscht werden - wobei auch mit den Erziehungswissenschaften kooperiert wird, um verkn{\"u}pfte Lernund Bildungsprozesse stets mitzudenken. Der dritte Antrag aus den Geo- und Umweltwissenschaften nimmt extreme und besonders folgenschwere Naturgefahren und -prozesse wie {\"U}berschwemmungen und D{\"u}rren in den Blick. Die Forschenden untersuchen die Extremereignisse mit besonderem Fokus auf deren Wechselwirkung mit der Gesellschaft, um mit ihnen einhergehende Risiken und Sch{\"a}den besser einsch{\"a}tzen sowie k{\"u}nftig rechtzeitig Maßnahmen einleiten zu k{\"o}nnen. „Alle drei Antr{\"a}ge zeichnen ein hervorragendes Bild unserer Leistungsf{\"a}higkeit", betont der Pr{\"a}sident der Universit{\"a}t, Prof. Oliver G{\"u}nther, Ph.D. „Die Skizzen dokumentieren eindrucksvoll unser Engagement, vorhandene Forschungsexzellenz sowie die Potenziale der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam insgesamt. Allein die Tatsache, dass sich drei schlagkr{\"a}ftige Konsortien in ganz unterschiedlichen Themenbereichen zusammengefunden haben, zeigt, dass wir auf unserem Weg in die Spitzengruppe der deutschen Universit{\"a}ten einen guten Schritt vorangekommen sind." In diesem Heft schauen wir, was sich in und hinter diesen Antr{\"a}gen verbirgt: Wir haben mit den Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftlern gesprochen, die sie geschrieben haben, und sie gefragt, was sie sich vornehmen, sollten sie den Zuschlag erhalten und ein Cluster an die Universit{\"a}t holen. Wir haben aber auch auf die Forschung geschaut, die zu den Antr{\"a}gen gef{\"u}hrt hat und die schon l{\"a}nger das Profil der Universit{\"a}t pr{\"a}gt und ihr national wie international Anerkennung eingebracht hat. Wir stellen eine kleine Auswahl an Projekten, Methoden und Forschenden vor, um zu zeigen, warum in diesen Antr{\"a}gen tats{\"a}chlich exzellente Forschung steckt! {\"U}brigens: Auch „Exzellenz" ist nicht das Ende der Fahnenstange. Immerhin l{\"a}sst sich das Adjektiv exzellent sogar steigern. In diesem Sinne w{\"u}nschen wir exzellentestes Vergn{\"u}gen beim Lesen!}, language = {de} } @article{GuentherSchueleZurelletal.2023, author = {G{\"u}nther, Oliver and Sch{\"u}le, Manja and Zurell, Damaris and Jeltsch, Florian and Roeleke, Manuel and Kampe, Heike and Zimmermann, Matthias and Scholz, Jana and Mikulla, Stefanie and Engbert, Ralf and Elsner, Birgit and Schlangen, David and Agrofylax, Luisa and Georgi, Doreen and Weymar, Mathias and Wagener, Thorsten and Bookhagen, Bodo and Eibl, Eva P. S. and Korup, Oliver and Oswald, Sascha and Thieken, Annegret and van der Beek, Pieter A.}, title = {Portal Wissen = Excellence}, series = {Portal Wissen: The research magazine of the University of Potsdam}, journal = {Portal Wissen: The research magazine of the University of Potsdam}, number = {02/2023}, issn = {2198-9974}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-61145}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-611456}, pages = {58}, year = {2023}, abstract = {When something is not just good or very good, we often call it excellent. But what does that really mean? Coming from the Latin word "excellere," it describes things, persons, or actions that are outstanding or superior and distinguish themselves from others. It cannot get any better. Excellence is the top choice for being the first or the best. Research is no exception. At the university, you will find numerous exceptional researchers, outstanding projects, and, time and again, sensational findings, publications, and results. But is the University of Potsdam also excellent? A question that will certainly create a different stir in 2023 than it did perhaps 20 years ago. Since the launch of the Excellence Initiative in 2005, universities that succeed in winning the most comprehensive funding program for research in Germany have been considered - literally - excellent. Whether in the form of graduate schools, research clusters, or - since the program was continued in 2019 under the title "Excellence Strategy" - entire universities of excellence: Anyone who wants to be among the best research universities needs the seal of excellence. The University of Potsdam is applying for funding with three cluster proposals in the recently launched new round of the "Excellence Strategy of the German Federal and State Governments." One proposal comes from ecology and biodiversity research. The aim is to paint a comprehensive picture of ecological processes by examining the role of single individuals as well as the interactions among many species in an ecosystem to precisely determine the function of biodiversity. A second proposal has been submitted by the cognitive sciences. Here, the complex coexistence of language and cognition, development and learning, as well as motivation and behavior will be researched as a dynamic interrelation. The projects will include cooperation with the educational sciences to constantly consider linked learning and educational processes. The third proposal from the geo and environmental sciences concentrates on extreme and particularly devastating natural hazards and processes such as floods and droughts. The researchers examine these extreme events, focusing on their interaction with society, to be able to better assess the risks and damages they might involve and to initiate timely measures in the future. "All three proposals highlight the excellence of our performance," emphasizes University President Prof. Oliver G{\"u}nther, Ph.D. "The outlines impressively document our commitment, existing research excellence, and the potential of the University of Potsdam as a whole. The fact that three powerful consortia have come together in different subject areas shows that we have taken a good step forward on our way to becoming one of the top German universities." In this issue, we are looking at what is in and behind these proposals: We talked to the researchers who wrote them. We asked them about their plans in case their proposals are successful and they bring a cluster of excellence to the university. But we also looked at the research that has led to the proposals, has long shaped the university's profile, and earned it national and international recognition. We present a small selection of projects, methods, and researchers to illustrate why there really is excellent research in these proposals! By the way, "excellence" is also not the end of the flagpole. After all, the adjective "excellent" even has a comparative and a superlative. With this in mind, I wish you the most excellent pleasure reading this issue!}, language = {en} } @article{PattonLunaRoeringetal.2023, author = {Patton, Annette I. and Luna, Lisa and Roering, Joshua J. and Jacobs, Aaron and Korup, Oliver and Mirus, Benjamin B.}, title = {Landslide initiation thresholds in data-sparse regions}, series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences : NHESS}, volume = {23}, journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences : NHESS}, number = {10}, publisher = {European Geophysical Society}, address = {Katlenburg-Lindau}, issn = {1684-9981}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023}, pages = {3261 -- 3284}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Probabilistic models to inform landslide early warning systems often rely on rainfall totals observed during past events with landslides. However, these models are generally developed for broad regions using large catalogs, with dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of landslide occurrences. This study evaluates strategies for training landslide forecasting models with a scanty record of landslide-triggering events, which is a typical limitation in remote, sparsely populated regions. We evaluate 136 statistical models trained on a precipitation dataset with five landslide-triggering precipitation events recorded near Sitka, Alaska, USA, as well as  6000 d of non-triggering rainfall (2002-2020). We also conduct extensive statistical evaluation for three primary purposes: (1) to select the best-fitting models, (2) to evaluate performance of the preferred models, and (3) to select and evaluate warning thresholds. We use Akaike, Bayesian, and leave-one-out information criteria to compare the 136 models, which are trained on different cumulative precipitation variables at time intervals ranging from 1 h to 2 weeks, using both frequentist and Bayesian methods to estimate the daily probability and intensity of potential landslide occurrence (logistic regression and Poisson regression). We evaluate the best-fit models using leave-one-out validation as well as by testing a subset of the data. Despite this sparse landslide inventory, we find that probabilistic models can effectively distinguish days with landslides from days without slide activity. Our statistical analyses show that 3 h precipitation totals are the best predictor of elevated landslide hazard, and adding antecedent precipitation (days to weeks) did not improve model performance. This relatively short timescale of precipitation combined with the limited role of antecedent conditions likely reflects the rapid draining of porous colluvial soils on the very steep hillslopes around Sitka. Although frequentist and Bayesian inferences produce similar estimates of landslide hazard, they do have different implications for use and interpretation: frequentist models are familiar and easy to implement, but Bayesian models capture the rare-events problem more explicitly and allow for better understanding of parameter uncertainty given the available data. We use the resulting estimates of daily landslide probability to establish two decision boundaries that define three levels of warning. With these decision boundaries, the frequentist logistic regression model incorporates National Weather Service quantitative precipitation forecasts into a real-time landslide early warning "dashboard" system (https://sitkalandslide.org/, last access: 9 October 2023). This dashboard provides accessible and data-driven situational awareness for community members and emergency managers.}, language = {en} } @article{VehKorupRoessneretal.2018, author = {Veh, Georg and Korup, Oliver and Roessner, Sigrid and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Detecting Himalayan glacial lake outburst floods from Landsat time series}, series = {Remote sensing of environment : an interdisciplinary journal}, volume = {207}, journal = {Remote sensing of environment : an interdisciplinary journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {New York}, issn = {0034-4257}, doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2017.12.025}, pages = {84 -- 97}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Several thousands of moraine-dammed and supraglacial lakes spread over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, and some have grown rapidly in past decades due to glacier retreat. The sudden emptying of these lakes releases large volumes of water and sediment in destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), one of the most publicised natural hazards to the rapidly growing Himalayan population. Despite the growing number and size of glacial lakes, the frequency of documented GLOFs is remarkably constant. We explore this possible reporting bias and offer a new processing chain for establishing a more complete Himalayan GLOF inventory. We make use of the full seasonal archive of Landsat images between 1988 and 2016, and track automatically where GLOFs left shrinking water bodies, and tails of sediment at high elevations. We trained a Random Forest classifier to generate fuzzy land cover maps for 2491 images, achieving overall accuracies of 91\%. We developed a likelihood-based change point technique to estimate the timing of GLOFs at the pixel scale. Our method objectively detected ten out of eleven documented GLOFs, and another ten lakes that gave rise to previously unreported GLOFs. We thus nearly doubled the existing GLOF record for a study area covering similar to 10\% of the HKH region. Remaining challenges for automatically detecting GLOFs include image insufficiently accurate co-registration, misclassifications in the land cover maps and image noise from clouds, shadows or ice. Yet our processing chain is robust and has the potential for being applied on the greater HKH and mountain ranges elsewhere, opening the door for objectively expanding the knowledge base on GLOF activity over the past three decades.}, language = {en} } @article{VehKorupvonSpechtetal.2019, author = {Veh, Georg and Korup, Oliver and von Specht, Sebastian and R{\"o}ßner, Sigrid and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Unchanged frequency of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya}, series = {Nature climate change}, volume = {9}, journal = {Nature climate change}, number = {5}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {1758-678X}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0437-5}, pages = {379 -- 383}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Shrinking glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya-Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have formed several thousand moraine-dammed glacial lakes(1-3), some of these having grown rapidly in past decades(3,4). This growth may promote more frequent and potentially destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)(5-7). Testing this hypothesis, however, is confounded by incomplete databases of the few reliable, though selective, case studies. Here we present a consistent Himalayan GLOF inventory derived automatically from all available Landsat imagery since the late 1980s. We more than double the known GLOF count and identify the southern Himalayas as a hotspot region, compared to the more rarely affected Hindu Kush-Karakoram ranges. Nevertheless, the average annual frequency of 1.3 GLOFs has no credible posterior trend despite reported increases in glacial lake areas in most of the HKKHN3,8, so that GLOF activity per unit lake area has decreased since the late 1980s. We conclude that learning more about the frequency and magnitude of outburst triggers, rather than focusing solely on rapidly growing glacial lakes, might improve the appraisal of GLOF hazards.}, language = {en} } @article{MohrZimmermannKorupetal.2014, author = {Mohr, Christian Heinrich and Zimmermann, Andreas and Korup, Oliver and Iroume, A. and Francke, Till and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {Seasonal logging, process response, and geomorphic work}, series = {Earth surface dynamics}, volume = {2}, journal = {Earth surface dynamics}, number = {1}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {2196-6311}, doi = {10.5194/esurf-2-117-2014}, pages = {117 -- 125}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Deforestation is a prominent anthropogenic cause of erosive overland flow and slope instability, boosting rates of soil erosion and concomitant sediment flux. Conventional methods of gauging or estimating post-logging sediment flux often focus on annual timescales but overlook potentially important process response on shorter intervals immediately following timber harvest. We resolve such dynamics with non-parametric quantile regression forests (QRF) based on high-frequency (3 min) discharge measurements and sediment concentration data sampled every 30-60 min in similar-sized (similar to 0.1 km(2)) forested Chilean catchments that were logged during either the rainy or the dry season. The method of QRF builds on the random forest algorithm, and combines quantile regression with repeated random sub-sampling of both cases and predictors. The algorithm belongs to the family of decision-tree classifiers, which allow quantifying relevant predictors in high-dimensional parameter space. We find that, where no logging occurred, similar to 80\% of the total sediment load was transported during extremely variable runoff events during only 5\% of the monitoring period. In particular, dry-season logging dampened the relative role of these rare, extreme sediment-transport events by increasing load efficiency during more efficient moderate events. We show that QRFs outperform traditional sediment rating curves (SRCs) in terms of accurately simulating short-term dynamics of sediment flux, and conclude that QRF may reliably support forest management recommendations by providing robust simulations of post-logging response of water and sediment fluxes at high temporal resolution.}, language = {en} } @article{Korup2020, author = {Korup, Oliver}, title = {Bayesian geomorphology}, series = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, volume = {46}, journal = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0197-9337}, doi = {10.1002/esp.4995}, pages = {151 -- 172}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The rapidly growing amount and diversity of data are confronting us more than ever with the need to make informed predictions under uncertainty. The adverse impacts of climate change and natural hazards also motivate our search for reliable predictions. The range of statistical techniques that geomorphologists use to tackle this challenge has been growing, but rarely involves Bayesian methods. Instead, many geomorphic models rely on estimated averages that largely miss out on the variability of form and process. Yet seemingly fixed estimates of channel heads, sediment rating curves or glacier equilibrium lines, for example, are all prone to uncertainties. Neighbouring scientific disciplines such as physics, hydrology or ecology have readily embraced Bayesian methods to fully capture and better explain such uncertainties, as the necessary computational tools have advanced greatly. The aim of this article is to introduce the Bayesian toolkit to scientists concerned with Earth surface processes and landforms, and to show how geomorphic models might benefit from probabilistic concepts. I briefly review the use of Bayesian reasoning in geomorphology, and outline the corresponding variants of regression and classification in several worked examples.}, language = {en} } @article{OzturkMarwanKorupetal.2018, author = {Ozturk, Ugur and Marwan, Norbert and Korup, Oliver and Saito, H. and Agarwa, Ankit and Grossman, M. J. and Zaiki, M. and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Complex networks for tracking extreme rainfall during typhoons}, series = {Chaos : an interdisciplinary journal of nonlinear science}, volume = {28}, journal = {Chaos : an interdisciplinary journal of nonlinear science}, number = {7}, publisher = {American Institute of Physics}, address = {Melville}, issn = {1054-1500}, doi = {10.1063/1.5004480}, pages = {8}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Reconciling the paths of extreme rainfall with those of typhoons remains difficult despite advanced forecasting techniques. We use complex networks defined by a nonlinear synchronization measure termed event synchronization to track extreme rainfall over the Japanese islands. Directed networks objectively record patterns of heavy rain brought by frontal storms and typhoons but mask out contributions of local convective storms. We propose a radial rank method to show that paths of extreme rainfall in the typhoon season (August-November, ASON) follow the overall southwest-northeast motion of typhoons and mean rainfall gradient of Japan. The associated eye-of-the-typhoon tracks deviate notably and may thus distort estimates of heavy typhoon rainfall. We mainly found that the lower spread of rainfall tracks in ASON may enable better hindcasting than for westerly-fed frontal storms in June and July.}, language = {en} } @article{DossetoMayChoietal.2018, author = {Dosseto, Anthony and May, Jan-Hendrik and Choi, Jeong-Heon and Swander, Zachary J. and Fink, David and Korup, Oliver and Hesse, Paul and Singh, Tejpal and Mifsud, Charles and Srivastava, Pradeep}, title = {Late quaternary fluvial incision and aggradation in the Lesser Himalaya, India}, series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, volume = {197}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0277-3791}, doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.07.035}, pages = {112 -- 128}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Reconstructing how rivers respond to changes in runoff or sediment supply by incising or aggrading has been pivotal in gauging the role of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) as a geomorphic driver in the Himalayas. Here we present new chronological data for fluvial aggradation and incision from the Donga alluvial fan and the upper Alaknanda River, as well as a compilation of previous work. In addition to conventional OSL-SAR (Single-Aliquot Regenerative-Dose) dating method, we have tested and applied pulsed OSL (POSL) dating for quartz samples that include K-rich feldspar inclusions, which is expected to improve the applicability and validity of OSL ages in the Lesser Himalaya. For previously dated deposits, our OSL ages are shown to be systematically older than previously reported ages. These results suggest periods of aggradation in the Alaknanda and Dehradun Valleys mainly between similar to 25 and 35 ka. This most likely reflects decreased stream power during periods of weakened monsoon. In addition, in-situ cosmogenic beryllium-10 was used to infer bedrock surface exposure ages, which are interpreted as episodes of active fluvial erosion. Resulting exposure ages span from 3 to 6 ka, suggesting that strath terraces were exposed relatively recently, and incision was dominant through most of the Holocene. In combination, our results support precipitation-driven fluvial dynamics, which regulates the balance between stream power and sediment supply. On a larger spatial scale, however, fluvial dynamics are probably not spatially homogeneous as aggradation could have been taking place in adjacent catchments while incision dominated in the study area. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{PhilipsWalzBergneretal.2015, author = {Philips, Andrea and Walz, Ariane and Bergner, Andreas G. N. and Gr{\"a}ff, Thomas and Heistermann, Maik and Kienzler, Sarah and Korup, Oliver and Lipp, Torsten and Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Zeilinger, Gerold}, title = {Immersive 3D geovisualization in higher education}, series = {Journal of geography in higher education}, volume = {39}, journal = {Journal of geography in higher education}, number = {3}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {0309-8265}, doi = {10.1080/03098265.2015.1066314}, pages = {437 -- 449}, year = {2015}, abstract = {In this study, we investigate how immersive 3D geovisualization can be used in higher education. Based on MacEachren and Kraak's geovisualization cube, we examine the usage of immersive 3D geovisualization and its usefulness in a research-based learning module on flood risk, called GEOSimulator. Results of a survey among participating students reveal benefits, such as better orientation in the study area, higher interactivity with the data, improved discourse among students and enhanced motivation through immersive 3D geovisualization. This suggests that immersive 3D visualization can effectively be used in higher education and that 3D CAVE settings enhance interactive learning between students.}, language = {en} } @article{MeyerSchwanghartKorupetal.2015, author = {Meyer, Nele Kristin and Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Korup, Oliver and Nadim, F.}, title = {Roads at risk}, series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, volume = {15}, journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, number = {5}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1561-8633}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-15-985-2015}, pages = {985 -- 995}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Globalisation and interregional exchange of people, goods, and services has boosted the importance of and reliance on all kinds of transport networks. The linear structure of road networks is especially sensitive to natural hazards. In southern Norway, steep topography and extreme weather events promote frequent traffic disruption caused by debris flows. Topographic susceptibility and trigger frequency maps serve as input into a hazard appraisal at the scale of first-order catchments to quantify the impact of debris flows on the road network in terms of a failure likelihood of each link connecting two network vertices, e.g. road junctions. We compute total additional traffic loads as a function of traffic volume and excess distance, i.e. the extra length of an alternative path connecting two previously disrupted network vertices using a shortest-path algorithm. Our risk metric of link failure is the total additional annual traffic load, expressed as vehicle kilometres, because of debris-flow-related road closures. We present two scenarios demonstrating the impact of debris flows on the road network and quantify the associated path-failure likelihood between major cities in southern Norway. The scenarios indicate that major routes crossing the central and north-western part of the study area are associated with high link-failure risk. Yet options for detours on major routes are manifold and incur only little additional costs provided that drivers are sufficiently well informed about road closures. Our risk estimates may be of importance to road network managers and transport companies relying on speedy delivery of services and goods.}, language = {en} } @article{UhlmannKorupHuggeletal.2013, author = {Uhlmann, Manuela and Korup, Oliver and Huggel, Christian and Fischer, Luzia and Kargel, Jeffrey S.}, title = {Supra-glacial deposition and flux of catastrophic rock-slope failure debris, south-central Alaska}, series = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, volume = {38}, journal = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, number = {7}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0197-9337}, doi = {10.1002/esp.3311}, pages = {675 -- 682}, year = {2013}, abstract = {The ongoing debate over the effects of global environmental change on Earth's cryosphere calls for detailed knowledge about process rates and their variability in cold environments. In this context, appraisals of the coupling between glacier dynamics and para-glacial erosion rates in tectonically active mountains remain rare. We contribute to filling this knowledge gap and present an unprecedented regional-scale inventory of supra-glacial sediment flux and hillslope erosion rates inferred from an analysis of 123 large (> 0 center dot 1km2) catastrophic bedrock landslides that fell onto glaciers in the Chugach Mountains, Alaska, as documented by satellite images obtained between 1972 to 2008. Assuming these supra-glacial landslide deposits to be passive strain markers we infer minimum decadal-scale sediment yields of 190 to 7400tkm-2yr-1 for a given glacier-surface cross-section impacted by episodic rock-slope failure. These rates compare to reported fluvial sediment yields in many mountain rivers, but are an order of magnitude below the extreme sediment yields measured at the snouts of Alaskan glaciers, indicating that the bulk of debris discharged derives from en-glacial, sub-glacial or ice-proximal sources. We estimate an average minimum para-glacial erosion rate by large, episodic rock-slope failures at 0 center dot 5-0 center dot 7mmyr-1 in the Chugach Mountains over a 50-yr period, with earthquakes likely being responsible for up to 73\% of this rate. Though ranking amongst the highest decadal landslide erosion rates for this size of study area worldwide, our inferred rates of hillslope erosion in the Chugach Mountains remain an order of magnitude below the pace of extremely rapid glacial sediment export and glacio-isostatic surface uplift previously reported from the region.}, language = {en} } @article{KorupHayakawaCodileanetal.2014, author = {Korup, Oliver and Hayakawa, Yuichi and Codilean, Alexandru T. and Matsushi, Yuki and Saito, Hitoshi and Oguchi, Takashi and Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki}, title = {Japan's sediment flux to the Pacific Ocean revisited}, series = {Earth science reviews : the international geological journal bridging the gap between research articles and textbooks}, volume = {135}, journal = {Earth science reviews : the international geological journal bridging the gap between research articles and textbooks}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0012-8252}, doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.03.004}, pages = {1 -- 16}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Quantifying volumes and rates of delivery of terrestrial sediment from island arcs to subduction zones is indispensable for refining estimates of the thickness of trench fills that may eventually control the location and timing of submarine landslides and tsunami-generating mega-earthquakes. Despite these motivating insights, knowledge about the rates of erosion and sediment export from the Japanese islands to their Pacific subduction zones remains patchy regardless of the increasing availability of highly resolved data on surface deformation, climate, geology, and topography. Traditionally, natural erosion rates across the island arc have been estimated from regression of topographic catchment metrics and reservoir sedimentation rates that were recorded over several years to decades. We review current research in this context, correct for a systematic bias in one of the most widely used predictions, and present new estimates of decadal to millennial-scale erosion rates of Japan's terrestrial inner forearc. We draw on several independent and unprecedented inventories of mass wasting, reservoir sedimentation, and concentrations of cosmogenic Be-10 in river sands. We find that natural Be-10-derived denudation rates of several mm yr(-1) in the Japanese Alps have been sustained over several centuries to millennia, and are, within error, roughly consistent with sediment yields inferred from artificial reservoir sedimentation. Local exceptions may likely result from release of sediment storage or regional landsliding episodes that trigger transient sediment pulses. Our synopsis further reveals that catchments draining Japan's eastern seaboard differ distinctly in their tectonic, lithological, topographic, and climatic characteristics between the Tohoku, Japanese Alps, and Nankai inner forearc segments, which is underscored by a marked asymmetric pattern of erosion rates along the island arc. Erosion rates are highest (up to at least 3 mm yr(-1)) in the Japanese Alps that mark the collision of two subduction zones, where high topographic relief, hillslope and bedrock-channel steepness foster rapid denudation by mass wasting. Comparable, if slightly lower, erosion rates characterise the Nankai inner forearc in southwest Japan, most likely due to higher typhoon-driven rainfall totals and variability rather than its high topographic relief. In contrast, our estimated erosion and flux rates are lowest in the Tohoku inner forearc catchments that feed sediment into the Japan Trench. We conclude that collisional mountain building of the Japanese Alps drives some of the highest erosion rates in the island arc despite similar uplift and precipitation controls in southwest Japan. We infer that, prior to extensive river damming, reservoir construction, and coastal works, the gross of Japan's total sediment export to the Pacific Ocean entered the accretionary margin of the Nankai Trough as opposed to the comparatively sediment-starved Japan Trench. Compared to documented contemporary rates of sediment flux from mountainous catchments elsewhere in the Pacific, the rivers draining Japan's inner forearc take an intermediate position despite high relief, steep slopes, very high seismicity, and frequent rainstorms. However, the average rates of millennial-scale denudation in the Japanese Alps particularly are amongst the highest reported worldwide. Local mismatches between these late Holocene and modern rates emphasise the anthropogenic fingerprint on sediment retention that may have significantly reduced the island arc's mass flux to its subduction zones, as is the case elsewhere in east and southeast Asia. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{VogelRiggelsenKorupetal.2014, author = {Vogel, Kristin and Riggelsen, Carsten and Korup, Oliver and Scherbaum, Frank}, title = {Bayesian network learning for natural hazard analyses}, series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, volume = {14}, journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, number = {9}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1561-8633}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-14-2605-2014}, pages = {2605 -- 2626}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Modern natural hazards research requires dealing with several uncertainties that arise from limited process knowledge, measurement errors, censored and incomplete observations, and the intrinsic randomness of the governing processes. Nevertheless, deterministic analyses are still widely used in quantitative hazard assessments despite the pitfall of misestimating the hazard and any ensuing risks. In this paper we show that Bayesian networks offer a flexible framework for capturing and expressing a broad range of uncertainties encountered in natural hazard assessments. Although Bayesian networks are well studied in theory, their application to real-world data is far from straightforward, and requires specific tailoring and adaptation of existing algorithms. We offer suggestions as how to tackle frequently arising problems in this context and mainly concentrate on the handling of continuous variables, incomplete data sets, and the interaction of both. By way of three case studies from earthquake, flood, and landslide research, we demonstrate the method of data-driven Bayesian network learning, and showcase the flexibility, applicability, and benefits of this approach. Our results offer fresh and partly counterintuitive insights into well-studied multivariate problems of earthquake-induced ground motion prediction, accurate flood damage quantification, and spatially explicit landslide prediction at the regional scale. In particular, we highlight how Bayesian networks help to express information flow and independence assumptions between candidate predictors. Such knowledge is pivotal in providing scientists and decision makers with well-informed strategies for selecting adequate predictor variables for quantitative natural hazard assessments.}, language = {en} } @article{UlloaIrournePiccoetal.2015, author = {Ulloa, Hector and Irourne, Andres and Picco, Lorenzo and Korup, Oliver and Lenzi, Mario Aristide and Mao, Luca and Ravazzolo, Diego}, title = {Massive biomass flushing despite modest channel response in the Rayas River following the 2008 eruption of Chaiten volcano, Chile}, series = {Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology}, volume = {250}, journal = {Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0169-555X}, doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.09.019}, pages = {397 -- 406}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The 2008 eruption of Chaiten volcano in southern Chile severely impacted several densely forested river catchments by supplying excess pyroclastic sediment to the channel networks. Our aim is to substantiate whether and how channel geometry and forest stands changed in the Rayas River following the sudden input of pyroclastic sediment. We measured the resulting changes to channel geometry and riparian forest stands along 17.6 km of the impacted gravel-bed Rayas River (294 km(2)) from multiple high-resolution satellite images, aerial photographs, and fieldwork to quantify yield volume characteristics of the forest stands. Limited channel changes during the last 60 years before the eruption reflect a dynamic equilibrium condition of the river corridor, despite the high annual precipitation and the sediment supply from Chaiten and Michinmahuida volcanoes in the headwaters. Images taken in 1945, 2004, and 2005 show that total size of the vegetated channel islands nearly doubled between 1945 and 2004 and remained unchanged between 2004 and 2005. Pyroclastic sediment entering the Rayas River after the 2008 eruption caused only minor average channel widening (7\%), but killed all island vegetation in the study reach. Substantial shifts in the size distribution of in-channel vegetation patches reflect losses in total island area of 46\% from 2005 to 2009 and an additional 34\% from 2009 to 2012. The estimated pulsed release of organic carbon into the channel, mainly in the form of large wood from obliterated island and floodplain forests, was 78-400 tC/km/y and surpasses most documented yields from small mountainous catchments with similar rainfall, forest cover, and disturbance history, while making up between 20\% and 60\% of the annual carbon burial rate of fluvial sediments in the northern Patagonian fjords. We conclude that the carbon footprint of the 2008 Chaiten eruption on the Rayas River was more significant than the measured geomorphic impacts on channel geometry for the first five years following disturbance. The modest post-eruptive geomorphic response in this river is a poor indicator of its biogeochemical response. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{KorupRixen2014, author = {Korup, Oliver and Rixen, C.}, title = {Soil erosion and organic carbon export by wet snow avalanches}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {8}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {2}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-8-651-2014}, pages = {651 -- 658}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Many mountain belts sustain prolonged snow cover for parts of the year, although enquiries into rates of erosion in these landscapes have focused almost exclusively on the snow-free periods. This raises the question of whether annual snow cover contributes significantly to modulating rates of erosion in high-relief terrain. In this context, the sudden release of snow avalanches is a frequent and potentially relevant process, judging from the physical damage to subalpine forest ecosystems, and the amount of debris contained in avalanche deposits. To quantitatively constrain this visual impression and to expand the sparse literature, we sampled sediment concentrations of n = 28 river-spanning snow-avalanche deposits (snow bridges) in the area around Davos, eastern Swiss Alps, and inferred an orders-of-magnitude variability in specific fine sediment and organic carbon yields (1.8 to 830 t km(-2) yr(-1), and 0.04 to 131 tC km(-2) yr(-1), respectively). A Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that, with a minimum of free parameters, such variability is inherent to the geometric scaling used for computing specific yields. Moreover, the widely applied method of linearly extrapolating plot scale sample data may be prone to substantial under- or overestimates. A comparison of our inferred yields with previously published work demonstrates the relevance of wet snow avalanches as prominent agents of soil erosion and transporters of biogeochemical constituents to mountain rivers. Given that a number of snow bridges persisted below the insulating debris cover well into the summer months, snow-avalanche deposits also contribute to regulating in-channel sediment and organic debris storage on seasonal timescales. Finally, our results underline the potential shortcomings of neglecting erosional processes in the winter and spring months in mountainous terrain subjected to prominent snow cover.}, language = {en} } @article{BloetheKorupSchwanghart2015, author = {Bl{\"o}the, Jan Henrik and Korup, Oliver and Schwanghart, Wolfgang}, title = {Large landslides lie low: Excess topography in the Himalaya-Karakoram ranges}, series = {Geology}, volume = {43}, journal = {Geology}, number = {6}, publisher = {American Institute of Physics}, address = {Boulder}, issn = {0091-7613}, doi = {10.1130/G36527.1}, pages = {523 -- 526}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Mass wasting is an important process for denuding hillslopes and lowering ridge crests in active mountain belts such as the Himalaya-Karakoram ranges (HKR). Such a high-relief landscape is likely to be at its mechanical threshold, maintained by competing rapid rock uplift, river incision, and pervasive slope failure. We introduce excess topography, Z(E), for quantifying potentially unstable rock-mass volumes inclined at angles greater than a specified threshold angle. We find that Z(E) peaks along major fluvial and glacial inner gorges, which is also where the majority of 492 large (>0.1 km(2)) rock-slope failures occur in the Himalaya's largest cluster of documented Pleistocene to Holocene bedrock landslides. Our data reveal that bedrock landslides in the HKR chiefly detached from near or below the median elevation, whereas glaciers and rock glaciers occupy higher-elevation bands almost exclusively. Less than 10\% of the area of the HKR is upslope of glaciers, such that possible censoring of evidence of large bedrock landslides above the permanent snow line barely affects this finding. Bedrock landslides appear to preferentially undermine topographic relief in response to fluvial and glacial incision along inner gorges, unless more frequent and smaller undetected failures, or rigorous (peri-)glacial erosion, compensate for this role at higher elevation. Either way, the distinct patterns of excess topography and large bedrock landsliding in the HKR juxtapose two stacked domains of landslide and (peri-)glacial erosion that may respond to different time scales of perturbation. Our findings call for more detailed analysis of vertical erosional domains and their geomorphic coupling in active mountain belts.}, language = {en} } @article{KorzeniowskaBuehlerMartyetal.2017, author = {Korzeniowska, Karolina and Buehler, Yves and Marty, Mauro and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Regional snow-avalanche detection using object-based image analysis of near-infrared aerial imagery}, series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, volume = {17}, journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1561-8633}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-17-1823-2017}, pages = {1823 -- 1836}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Snow avalanches are destructive mass movements in mountain regions that continue to claim lives and cause infrastructural damage and traffic detours. Given that avalanches often occur in remote and poorly accessible steep terrain, their detection and mapping is extensive and time consuming. Nonetheless, systematic avalanche detection over large areas could help to generate more complete and up-to-date inventories (cadastres) necessary for validating avalanche forecasting and hazard mapping. In this study, we focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on 0.25m near-infrared (NIR) ADS80-SH92 aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. Our algorithm takes into account the brightness, the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), the normalised difference water index (NDWI), and its standard deviation (SDNDWI) to distinguish avalanches from other land-surface elements. Using normalised parameters allows applying this method across large areas. We trained the method by analysing the properties of snow avalanches at three 4km\&\#8722;2 areas near Davos, Switzerland. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons and obtained a user's accuracy of >0.9 and a Cohen's kappa of 0.79-0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3km\&\#8722;2, we estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.67. Detected avalanches that overlapped with reference data by >80\% occurred randomly throughout the testing area, showing that our method avoids overfitting. Our method has potential for large-scale avalanche mapping, although further investigations into other regions are desirable to verify the robustness of our selected thresholds and the transferability of the method.}, language = {en} } @article{KorupSeidemannMohr2019, author = {Korup, Oliver and Seidemann, Jan and Mohr, Christian Heinrich}, title = {Increased landslide activity on forested hillslopes following two recent volcanic eruptions in Chile}, series = {Nature geoscience}, volume = {12}, journal = {Nature geoscience}, number = {4}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {New York}, issn = {1752-0894}, doi = {10.1038/s41561-019-0315-9}, pages = {284 -- 289}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Large explosive eruptions can bury landscapes beneath thick layers of tephra. Rivers subsequently overloaded with excess pyroclastic sediments have some of the highest reported specific sediment yields. Much less is known about how hillslopes respond to tephra loads. Here, we report a pulsed and distinctly delayed increase in landslide activity following the eruptions of the Chaiten (2008) and Puyehue-Cordon Caulle (2011) volcanoes in southern Chile. Remote-sensing data reveal that land-slides clustered in densely forested hillslopes mostly two to six years after being covered by tephra. This lagged instability is consistent with a gradual loss of shear strength of decaying tree roots in areas of high tephra loads. Surrounding areas with comparable topography, forest cover, rainfall and lithology maintained landslide rates roughly ten times lower. The landslides eroded the landscape by up to 4.8 mm on average within 30 km of both volcanoes, mobilizing up to 1.6 MtC at rates of about 265 tC km(-2) yr(-1). We suggest that these yields may reinforce the elevated river loads of sediment and organic carbon in the decade after the eruptions. We recommend that studies of post-eruptive mass fluxes and hazards include lagged landslide responses of tephra-covered forested hillslopes, to avoid substantial underestimates.}, language = {en} } @article{OeztuerkMarwanvonSpechtetal.2018, author = {{\"O}zt{\"u}rk, Ugur and Marwan, Norbert and von Specht, Sebastian and Korup, Oliver and Jensen, J.}, title = {A new centennial sea-level record for Antalya, Eastern Mediterranean}, series = {Journal of geophysical research-oceans}, volume = {123}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research-oceans}, number = {7}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9275}, doi = {10.1029/2018JC013906}, pages = {4503 -- 4517}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Quantitative estimates of sea-level rise in the Mediterranean Basin become increasingly accurate thanks to detailed satellite monitoring. However, such measuring campaigns cover several years to decades, while longer-term sea-level records are rare for the Mediterranean. We used a data archeological approach to reanalyze monthly mean sea-level data of the Antalya-I (1935-1977) tide gauge to fill this gap. We checked the accuracy and reliability of these data before merging them with the more recent records of the Antalya-II (1985-2009) tide gauge, accounting for an eight-year hiatus. We obtain a composite time series of monthly and annual mean sea levels spanning some 75 years, providing the longest record for the eastern Mediterranean Basin, and thus an essential tool for studying the region's recent sea-level trends. We estimate a relative mean sea-level rise of 2.2 ± 0.5 mm/year between 1935 and 2008, with an annual variability (expressed here as the standard deviation of the residuals, σresiduals = 41.4 mm) above that at the closest tide gauges (e.g., Thessaloniki, Greece, σresiduals = 29.0 mm). Relative sea-level rise accelerated to 6.0 ± 1.5 mm/year at Antalya-II; we attribute roughly half of this rate (~3.6 mm/year) to tectonic crustal motion and anthropogenic land subsidence. Our study highlights the value of data archeology for recovering and integrating historic tide gauge data for long-term sea-level and climate studies.}, language = {en} }