@article{LehmannCoumouFrieler2015, author = {Lehmann, Jascha and Coumou, Dim and Frieler, Katja}, title = {Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming}, series = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change}, volume = {132}, journal = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change}, number = {4}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0165-0009}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1434-y}, pages = {501 -- 515}, year = {2015}, abstract = {In the last decade record-breaking rainfall events have occurred in many places around the world causing severe impacts to human society and the environment including agricultural losses and floodings. There is now medium confidence that human-induced greenhouse gases have contributed to changes in heavy precipitation events at the global scale. Here, we present the first analysis of record-breaking daily rainfall events using observational data. We show that over the last three decades the number of record-breaking events has significantly increased in the global mean. Globally, this increase has led to 12 \% more record-breaking rainfall events over 1981-2010 compared to those expected in stationary time series. The number of record-breaking rainfall events peaked in 2010 with an estimated 26 \% chance that a new rainfall record is due to long-term climate change. This increase in record-breaking rainfall is explained by a statistical model which accounts for the warming of air and associated increasing water holding capacity only. Our results suggest that whilst the number of rainfall record-breaking events can be related to natural multi-decadal variability over the period from 1901 to 1980, observed record-breaking rainfall events significantly increased afterwards consistent with rising temperatures.}, language = {en} } @misc{LehmannCoumouFrieler2015, author = {Lehmann, Jascha and Coumou, Dim and Frieler, Katja}, title = {Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming (vol 132, pg 501, 2015)}, series = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change}, volume = {132}, journal = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change}, number = {4}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0165-0009}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1466-3}, pages = {517 -- 518}, year = {2015}, language = {en} } @article{LehmannCoumouFrieleretal.2014, author = {Lehmann, Jascha and Coumou, Dim and Frieler, Katja and Eliseev, Alexey V. and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change}, series = {Environmental research letters}, volume = {9}, journal = {Environmental research letters}, number = {8}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084002}, pages = {8}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have analyzed how storm tracks will change under climate change, and how these changes are related to atmospheric dynamics. However, there are still discrepancies between different studies on how storm tracks will change under future climate scenarios. Here, we show that under global warming the CMIP5 ensemble of coupled climate models projects only little relative changes in vertically averaged mid-latitude mean storm track activity during the northern winter, but agree in projecting a substantial decrease during summer. Seasonal changes in the Southern Hemisphere show the opposite behaviour, with an intensification in winter and no change during summer. These distinct seasonal changes in northern summer and southern winter storm tracks lead to an amplified seasonal cycle in a future climate. Similar changes are seen in the mid-latitude mean Eady growth rate maximum, a measure that combines changes in vertical shear and static stability based on baroclinic instability theory. Regression analysis between changes in the storm tracks and changes in the maximum Eady growth rate reveal that most models agree in a positive association between the two quantities over mid-latitude regions.}, language = {en} }